Monday's Rooting Guide - Thank you Hunter Dickinson! - Bubble Edition
Not gonna lie folks, I thought my gig was up there for a few minutes lol But I'm happy to say, Michigan is still on the bubble and absolutely in contention for a spot in the tourney!
Let's start with a recap of yesterday and where Michigan stands entering the day:
- If you recall, outside of Michigan, we only had rooting interests in 3 other games. And let me tell you....Rutgers did us a solid! If you haven't seen that game yet, try & catch some highlights today. Penn State was up 19 points in the 2nd half, at home, and somehow grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory. That result had MASSIVE implications for Michigan.
- Honestly, the Northwestern & Cincinnati wins would have been nice but weren't all that critical.
- I was tempted to add the OSU/Illinois game but figured it would be a waste of everyone's time. OSU was 71 on the NET rankings entering yesterday. If they had dropped to 75, our win over them would have moved from Quad-2 to Quad-3. That was actually an important win for the Buckeyes. They moved up to 63 on the NET rankings and should be a solid Quad-2 win for us.
- As for Michigan, our NET ranking didn't move, which actually did surprise me. We're still sitting at 55 but with some chances to move tonight and this week (more to come about that).
- Jerry Palm is one of the major Bracketologists to update this far this morning and he has us as his First Team Out. I'll be sure to post here later after Bracket Matrix makes their update.
Alright, let's look at tonight's games because....there are some critical ones:
- North Carolina (18-11, 10-8) at Florida State (9-20, 7-11) - (UNC by 8) - 7pm EST on ESPN - If you missed FSU's buzzer-beater comeback against Miami on Saturday, it was one of the ages. Let's hope the Seminoles keep the late-season magic going and take down UNC today. This would qualify as a Quad-4 loss for UNC and would be a critical hit for an already light resume.
- Baylor (21-8, 10-6) at Oklahoma State (16-13, 7-9) - (Baylor by 1.5) - 9pm on ESPN - Really critical game here. The Cowboys were looking comfortably in the tournament but have lost 4 games in a row. They do have 5 Quad-1 wins, so we really can't afford them to get a 6th. Rooting hard for the Bears here!
- West Virginia (16-13, 5-11) at Iowa State (17-11, 8-8) - (ISU by 5) - 9pm on ESPN2 - Another really important and fascinating game. No way around it, these are two teams going in the wrong direction. WVU has lost 4 of their last 5 games. And while they have 4 Quad-1 wins, their conference record is really going to test the committee's limits for losses. Iowa State has now lost 5 of their last 6 games but with an insane 8 Quad-1 wins, they have zero risk of missing the tournament. We want the Cyclones here.
- Nevada (22-7, 12-4) at Wyoming (8-20, 3-13) - (Nevada by 5.5) - 9pm on CBS Sports Network - So, I would describe this game as a 'nice to have' game. This would qualify as a Quad-3 loss for Nevada, who is currently on the right side of the bubble but not yet safe. A loss to a not great Wyoming team could change that. Let's do this Wyoming!
It's pretty rare we have this many important games on a Monday. In particular that 9pm hour is going to tell us a lot about what Michigan will need to do to keep serve. Hoping for some more Big 12 chaos like we saw on Saturday. Thanks again for all of the kind words & encouragement! Love doing these for our community here! Go Blue!
February 27th, 2023 at 5:27 PM ^
Baker and his brother - who are the two guys getting his minutes - are both shooting better than 37%. So no, that percent of shooting is not needed. It's worse than the alternatives right now.
I do agree with you that if he became more selective and only shot the really good ones instead of the pull up chucks, he'd probably improve that percentage. But even then, he's still a major defensive liability.
February 27th, 2023 at 6:35 PM ^
Who is Baker’s brother?
February 27th, 2023 at 10:22 PM ^
Baker and his brother - who are the two guys getting his minutes - are both shooting better than 37%.
Jace has made seven threes all season and is averaging 1.4 ppg. (He's also shooting 36% from the FT line.) He really shouldn't be getting non-garbage minutes.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:52 AM ^
It's funny that you discount his 3pt % by pointing out the small sample while noting his FT% without mention that it's an even smaller sample.
He's fine giving wing players a break for a couple min a game, especially if he's out there with Kobe and Hunter who should be taking most shots anyway.
He knows where to be, he plays hard, he plays tough (I loved the play against Rutgers where he challenged that drive by the skinny dude and just crushed him) and he makes open threes. Players like that are valuable.
It is interesting how completely polar opposite he and Jett are as players.
My only point was that the poster said Jett's 37% three point percent alone is badly needed but that ridiculous considering his replacements shoot better. Maybe 37% on volume is sorely needed (which I disagree with still, but 37% alone by definition isn't saying much).
February 27th, 2023 at 5:12 PM ^
I agree with you about Michigan vs. Illinois. These two teams are trending in the opposite direction and that can be really important when you're talking about playing for your tournament life.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:19 PM ^
Something pretty interesting about our resume is the quality of losses is generally great, with only 2 losses outside of quad 1. Those two are Arizona State, which is a bubble team on a neutral court, so certainly not a really bad loss, and then there's Central Michigan. That loss is such an outlier on our resume. I'm curious how the committee would evaluate that, vs. a team with no horrendous losses but several quad 2 and 3 losses, which we have very few of.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
Yea, it's funny Rice, I actually messaged the guy who runs Torvik over on Twitter. He said a lot of times those can be a little fluky and to watch it change over the time of the games. Like, I guarantee you, for our bubble chances, FSU, ISU, and Baylor are way more important than an obscure game like Bethune Cookman. He also commented that some of that is also about actual seeding vs. making the tourney. Either way, I keep a close eye on that report as well.
February 27th, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^
I bet this can change during an evening of games. Its a good starting point but ill trust your input more for minute to minute updates. Good stuff all around.
Its funny when we lost to Indiana and Wisky people were saying we were done. I said no but now vs Indiana and @Wisky turned to @Indiana and @Rutgers. It was kind of tongue in cheek but here we are.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
As always, use Mred's tourney tool to try and figure out potential BTT seedings. It looks to me like we'll get a double bye with a win in either of our last two games, and would be around the #9 seed if we lost both. We can finish as high as a #2 with two wins and a little help, which is pretty insane for a team trying to play their way in.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
Great stuff, and thanks again for putting this all together.
I said this last week but TT and WVU still being in bid territory makes little sense to me but every WVU loss helps. There's a non-zero chance WVU finishes with 3 straight losses but even if they go 1-1 to end the year not sure if that's enough. Being 6-12 in any conference isn't going to move the needle for people. And if Okie St. can lose that would be nice since that would lock them in to a sub-.500 conference record.
FSU probably doesn't beat UNC but man would that be a fun outcome.
Anyway, UM has a couple of days to see how other teams settle out. I am interested in what you think will happen to UM's NET rating between now and Thursday since it didn't move yesterday, which is sorta weird.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
Appreciate that! I've probably never told you this before but you're easily one of my favorite posters here. Always with rational thoughts on things and tend to balance optimism & pessimism well, which isn't easy. I don't always agree but I always appreciate your takes on things. Thanks for that!
As for our NET ranking, man.....that is a great question! There's just so many moving pieces right? Any team any night could change our Quad wins. I'm not sure I see any scenarios that we move down. My guess is we perhaps move up 2-3 spots but stay mostly pat.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:44 PM ^
They beat the #70 team at home in overtime. Its not that surprising
February 27th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
I tend to agree with that but let's look at Bradley from yesterday.
They beat #62 Drake at home and moved from 61 to 56. Is a team 8 spots higher (and still Quad-2) worth 5 spots? If anything, the NET rankings are pretty inconsistent IMHO.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^
Yeah, it feels like the "we flatten records so that every game means exactly the same regardless of when it happened" creates these weird scenarios where a team doesn't get a ton of credit for being good at the end of the year while others get artificially pumped up for things they did months ago. I recognize the need to have some consistency and you don't want just recency bias but WVU, for example, won't have won consecutive games in a month come conference tournament time and they're still in the top-30 per NET.
February 27th, 2023 at 4:32 PM ^
They beat Drake by more and Drake is ranked higher and the higher you get the harder it is to move up
February 27th, 2023 at 7:50 PM ^
Bingo. People keep ignoring margin of victory / efficiency as if it's still the old RPI. And also they're treating each spot as if they're all uniformly spaced.
Each team has a NET "score" which is (I believe) a fraction. Teams could be bunched together such that a slight improvement in one teams NET could jump them over a few teams. And you're correct than in general teams in the 60s are closer to the fat part of the bell curve than teams in the 50s so presumably they are bunched tighter (but not a perfect bell curve so atypical gaps and clustering can occur) and hence can jump more teams with the same raw improvement in their NET score.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
Yeah, it certainly wasn’t the best way to get that win statistically for sure. On the other hand it made everybody pay attention to Michigan for a day and that impact can’t quite be measured.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:11 PM ^
Sure, but Texas Tech (#54) lost at home to TCU and didn't move either. You'd think a loss would cause some movement. Miami lost a home game to the #216 team per NET and went down 1 spot. Wisconsin lost 2 spots after losing at Michigan. So yeah, it's a bit weird that some teams moved and some didn't.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^
That’s a good point. Honestly, I think the committee is going to be looking for a reason to put Michigan in though. They draw eyeballs and have a great recent tournament history. College hoops is short on stars and Michigan at least has some blossoming up and coming star- like substances.
This Illinois game would be a massive win. I think the breathing would get a lot easier if they get it. Huge game. Reminds me of the at NW game in 2017. Hope it doesn’t end that way.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:07 AM ^
I don't think this is correct. TTU was 48th on Saturday's NET. See the wayback machine here.
They've dropped to 54th after the loss. The game was Saturday not Sunday so they didn't drop from Sunday to today's rankings.
February 27th, 2023 at 5:21 PM ^
WVU is interesting to compare to us. The NET is quite different, at 26 vs. 55. They're considerably higher in predictive metrics, which I don't think matter that much, but are still looked at. Other than that, very similar resumes:
Quad 1: Mich 3-10, WVU 4-12
Quad 2: Mich 6-1, WVU 5-1
We have the one Q4 loss, they don't have any losses in Q3 or Q4. Both teams have had a lot of chances at Q1 wins and are not winning a high percentage of those games. We probably have the best win, at Rutgers (I can't believe that's a sentence I'm writing about Rutgers, but here we are).
One advantage we have right now? Overall record. History is unkind to teams who don't finish at least 4 games above .500 (we were one of the few exceptions last year). I think if WVU doesn't get a couple more wins, they'll be out. They don't have the quality of wins necessary to overcome a 17-15 overall record.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:10 AM ^
Very close resumes except we have that anchor of a q4 loss.
So they don't have a bad loss and have vastly superior quality metrics. We really have nothing on them. So they're clearly ahead right now.
And I kept saying this last year when people said no way we get in being only 3 games over 500. You can completely ignore history prior to NET and the new quadrant system. So the 4 games over 500 benchmark is no longer relevant and doesn't hold up well in the "history" of NET.
So they'll be fine, especially after the nice road win tonight. They're in.
February 28th, 2023 at 8:46 AM ^
Unfortunately, I think you're right. I'd still like to see a few more years of NET before I conclude that the record benchmark doesn't matter but you will probably be right about that. As it stands now, yes, WVU is likely in after their win last night.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
HD's three to send the game to OT was a very memorable moment. One could argue that it was a "make or break" shot - since, a loss on Saturday would not have looked good on the resume and, perhaps destined the team for "not the Dance."
However, he made the three - the game went to OT - Michigan won the game - and, it's on to this week.
Hoping they don't need a last second miracle to win in Champaign - but, if they need it - and get it - that would be very fine with me.
Go Blue!
February 27th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
Only thing I'll add (since TB9 mentioned Jerry Palm) is Palm's current bracketology.
First Four Out:
- Michigan (NET 55)
- PSU (59)
- UNC (47)
- ASU (61)
Last Four In (all are First-Four participants and 11 seeds):
- Miss St (39) vs
- Wisconsin (72)
- Okie St (46) vs
- WVU (26)
Others of note are below. I've bolded the teams that are currently behind Michigan in the conference standings.
- Purdue (1 seed)
- Indiana (4 seed)
- Northwestern (5 seed)
- Maryland (7 seed)
- michigan state in as a 7 seed
- Illinois (8 seed)
- Iowa (8 seed)
- Pitt (9 seed)
- Rutgers (11 seed)
February 27th, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
I'd love an explanation for Wisconsin being in.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:11 PM ^
Honestly comes down to one thing: 6 Quad-1 wins. They also only have 1 Quad-3 loss but no Quad-4 losses.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:36 PM ^
Yeah, it's just sort of crazy that they in spite of that gaudy number of wins are still 72nd per NET and about the same with KenPom. And they've been pretty mediocre the past month or so - feels like they're getting a ton of credit for beating Marquette last year.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:17 AM ^
full body of work, but it's not just that game. those six q1 wins are much better than anyone else on the bubble. that matters a lot more than advanced stats. Ws and Ls are still the key.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
I believe they have 6 quad 1 wins. The number of quad 1 wins ie who you beat seems to have a large impact on your consideration. Our profile gets a lot better if we win one or both of the next games. They’re tough though illini have been struggling a bit recently. IMO need to make hay against the illini who are a completely different team than the one we’ve struggled against when they had Cockburn. Then should we secure that try to avenge the loss in Crisler a few weeks ago on Sunday against a really good Indiana team who we’ve matched up decently against through TJD has been outplaying Hunter slightly in the last two games we’ve played them.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
"Thank you Hunter Dickinson"
May we have another
February 27th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
Don, Dickinson doesn't need to hit threes - I really don't care if he makes "little bunnies", free throws, hook shots, or threes. As long as he puts some points on the board - and, helps lead the team - I'll be "more than good with it" - assuming the final result is what Wolverine fans are hoping for.
February 27th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
I’m all in and fully vested. It is now my belief we make a run to the sweet 16 and I’m paying close attention to the bubble. Thanks for the threads!
February 27th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^
Thank you!
February 27th, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^
That CMU loss is such a millstone. According to Torvik, if we had just won that game, we would have a bye. But as it stands right now, we're the fourth team out. I was hoping they'd become an average MAC team and make it look a little better, but they've been awful. 326th out of 363 teams on Kenpom and 338th out of 363 on Torvik now. I still like our chances, our presence in the tournament is good for business, and the committee tends to reward hot teams. But I hope that doesn't end up being the difference.
February 27th, 2023 at 7:02 PM ^
I agree the loss hurt but Iowa, for example, lost to an even worse Eastern Illinois team by 9 at home and are still comfortably in seemingly because they hold a big win over ISU. That's what is hurting UM now - they don't really have a big OOC win to hang their hats on to negate that bad win. Give them the UVa win and my guess is they'd be in as well
February 28th, 2023 at 1:19 AM ^
You're way too focused on individual games. It's the quadrants that are key. Iowa has four q1 wins and a very good eight q2 wins. Hence they're in comfortably.
February 27th, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^
You're better than Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi!
February 27th, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
i get that in a vacuum UNC doesnt make it, but 18-11 or even 19-12 for UNC? i dont see how they don't make the tourney... just by name alone
February 27th, 2023 at 4:22 PM ^
I think it is highly unlikely UNC doesn’t make the field.
February 27th, 2023 at 6:18 PM ^
You know, I hadn’t thought about this until now but….Virginia is very close to dropping to a Quad-2 win for UNC. They’re currently 28 on the Net rankings. One more loss and they’re right back to zero Quad-1 wins.
February 27th, 2023 at 6:23 PM ^
Michigan appearing in another bracket on the bracket matrix for 2 total. ASU starting to gain traction with 20 total. As has been said need them to drop their final 2 games would be huge.
February 27th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
Lunardi has us in the last 4 out in his latest update.
February 27th, 2023 at 6:54 PM ^
Really hope our guys get out to a hot start on Thursday just go wire to wire and run through the tape. Need to exorcise some demons with Illinois and get the win to really put the pressure on the bracketologists and the committee.
February 27th, 2023 at 7:08 PM ^
Thanks for these! Fun way to have a rooting interest without having money on the games.
February 27th, 2023 at 8:02 PM ^
Michigan in 5 brackets now on the bracket matrix. Huge game this Thursday.
February 27th, 2023 at 9:27 PM ^
Wait, what?
Watching WVU game and trying to figure out how we need a team with a 5-11 conference record to lose (I mean I read the write up, but…)?
Huggins: “We played the toughest schedule in college basketball.”
Ok, but if you lost all of those games…
February 28th, 2023 at 1:25 AM ^
See the post by Monday above. It's the quadrant records that matter. Conference record does not matter at all. You should completely ignore it.