More top football recruits drifting away from Michigan
Jalen Brown looks to be headed to Miami and Jacobe Johnson is likely headed to Oklahoma.
The truth sucks.
But I find solace in knowing that we here at Mgoblog are not delusional. We are behind the times, and that might not change. We are embarking upon a time period where winning might not actually bring recruits; it may just come down to who can offer the most lucrative deals.
At this point, big time recruits would have to turn down millions of dollars to sign with Michigan. Can you blame them for not wanting to do that?
Nobody has a problem with the "them" its more an "us" thing.
Why were not recruiting at a great level:
NIL 40%
Harbaugh NFL 35%
Both coordinators gone 25%
I appreciate including this formula for the realistic diversity of challenges that face our recruiting situation in Football this season.
I envision that NIL is going to be a problem for us THIS season, but I would expect that Congress or other higher entity will soon challenge this "wild west" NIL landscape. And the longer term picture seems to point towards performance incentives eventually being the best NIL for college football - since you don't want to risk losing your established starters when a HS junior gets signed to a multi-million dollar deal. And if none of that materializes, I'd expect Michigan to finally realize that the NCAA is toothless after several years of playing it safe.
Ultimately - a team full of 3 & 4 stars still has the ability to perform well. Just look at last season - and be honest with yourselves. The doom & gloom here is understandable, but kind of ridiculous considering we have great coaches who are proven developers of talent on the staff.
This article is based on singular crystal balls for both players. Chill. Next week should be a good week
Haven’t we always complained about our recruits signing with other schools?
Last year was amazing. It was a long, long time coming and it gave us a taste of what we’ve been so badly missing.
Many of us hoped and even assumed it was going to be just the start and it would help propel the program closer to the truly elite level we want to be thought of.
Unfortunately, at least to me, that hope has been crushed.
Let’s enjoy this upcoming season. The offense has a chance to make it another very fun season, but the reality is that these two years could very well end up being as good as it gets for us.
Michigan simply cannot reach the levels we want with this moral superiority. I used to think Michigan would benefit from NIL with all of its resources. I was wrong.
Honest question for you or anyone else that wants to answer: Other than the need for some reason of optimism when OSU was pounding Michigan into the earth from 2017 to 2020, why on earth did you think Michigan was going to be the leaders on the NIL front and benefit from it? I was born in 88 and can only think of few areas (especially in regards to the football program, but athletics in general) where Michigan has been ahead of the curve. Beilein, in general, was a bit ahead of his time from an offense scheme perspective and Harbaugh did find a good loophole with satellite camps. Other than that, what is there?
What irritates me the most is that our "moral superiority" is entirely arbitrary and of our own making! We've drawn our own line in the sand and decided "THAT'S moral...everyone else is immoral!!"
It's so utterly stupid it's mind boggling.
"Calm down, we never lead for any of them in the first place" is not exactly a comforting phrase given.... ya know....
NIL is saving us from having a class size of like 50.
And a class size of 8 by the end of June.
Also, one factor from having 3 or more 4* commits at the end of June.
I’ll maintain that if we don’t get involved in NIL exponentially better than we are now, in about 2 years our class recruiting rank will be in the 30s.
Time will tell
Michigan Money Cannon ≈ Michigan Peashooter.
For everyone taking the "wait and see" approach, which I totally get and would normally agree with, I think the problem is that we expected to step up this year. The playoff berth, the supposed Michigan money cannon with NIL, blah blah blah. It was a shot to get ourselves a bit closer to that top tier. Still not OSU, but closer, and a better chance at consistently competing with them.
Instead, we're backsliding. If we somehow pull out a top 15 class with some late commits...okay? That's about where we've been. Finding some diamonds in the rough among the 3 stars is great, but I want that and pulling in multiple 5 stars along with a complement of 4 stars.
I'll happily eat crow if we flip a bunch of top recruits on signing day, but I just don't think that's realistic.
EDIT: rofl, literally seconds after I commented. Good grief.
This looks like it’s going to be a rough class no matter what. Harbaugh NFL dalliance, Gattis’s petulant exit and NIL shortcomings all converging.
I think this incoming class is excellent and we have a very easy schedule so hopefully we can finish strong and end up with a decent 23 class and hopefully regroup for 24.
I also think NIL will cool down a bit but who knows
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I think NIL will cool down too, but still be ahead of Michigan's. Even if Michigan catches up when NIL cools down, how far behind other programs in talent and relationships will they be?
Stop with the Harbaugh to NFL thing as a impediment to recruiting. After the 2-4 season he was a lame duck coach with a lot of uncertainty, yet he pulled in a very nice class.
Our NIL game is hung like a light switch. We could overcome any obstacle if just put in at least moderate effort here.
I mean I agree NIL is a bigger issue but everyone paying attention is aware that he'd rather be somewhere other than UM.
Kinda hard to downplay that
If he truly wanted to be somewhere other than Michigan, he’d be there already.
Have to be offered in order to accept....
That’s because he’s been (until this year) fairly satisfied with his spot at Michigan.
I can guarantee you if he was open to leaving Michigan for real, he’d have an NFL team snatch him up immediately. The Bears could use him!
He wanted to leave and got no offers from the NFL. Period, full stop.
"He wanted to leave and got no offers from the NFL. Period, full stop."
Accurate or not this is what other recruiters are putting in the kids ears.
Give me a $&)$&& break. Yeah right Harbaugh can't find another job. We had to beg him to stay less than one calendar year ago so just go $&( a DUCK!!!!
Hate to pile on, but I wonder if some high profile freshman or sophomores bail after our during this season to make money elsewhere. Moreso than the usual second stringers...
This is clearly now, a thing. Nil is taking away our institutional, academic, facility Ave other advantages. Money talks.
The sad thing is that Michigan is fortunate to have a large and successful alum and can absolutely compete with the top schools in monetary advantages if they chose to do so. The university is choosing not to use them because they are going to die on the hill named:
"We aren't just a sports school."
I wish the mantra was... "We are also an amazing sports school"
No, because 90% of the people on this site think they know what’s happening and want to complain about it but they’re wrong. The rules say you can’t offer a guy money to come to your school. Every Power 5 program, except Michigan apparently, is currently offering recruits money to come to their school. Completely against the rules.
What Michigan is doing, and thus following the rules, is saying once you’re on campus we’ll hook you up but only after you’re on a roster. They will not offer a recruit money up front to come to Michigan. Again that is against the rules.
Everyone here wants Michigan to also break the rules, like everyone else, and start offering 4 and 5 stars millions to sign with them. Michigan refuses to do that. But Michigan is not handcuffing players once they have signed. Tons of players have signed lucrative deals and the incoming recruits will get paid. They’re just not going to get a 3 million offer to sign. They’ll get money after they’ve signed and joined their respective team.
Time will tell if anyone reigns in the free agency style spending. But the truth is, it is against the rules still. Not saying I agree or disagree with following the rules, just stating the obvious. I think teams will be punished for outright paying guys to come to their school. This is why the booster from Miami denied the news that he paid the QB to sign commit on them. Because that is 100% against the rules and if he would have admitted it Miami would be in big trouble.
Short version: paying players to sign is still against NCAA rules, everyone but Michigan is doing it. Paying players once they’ve signed isn’t against NCAA rules, Michigan is doing that. Players at Michigan will still make bank. They won’t be promised money up front though. This will lose them some recruits until this all settles down. It will settle down, the SEC will be sure of that.
The team currently with the #1 classes in both ‘23 & ‘24 aren’t offering recruits money to come play there.
They are handling NIL legally & the same way Michigan is.
They are just doing a lot better job of explaining how it benefits the recruit in the long run.
You're not only lying that's a BALD FACED lie. Imagine a college student not understanding this. We will pay you if you come here. Other schools are legally paying others but we refuse to do it like them because we don't really want you! And if Saban is calling A&M cheaters you know something is awry because that's the kettle calling the POT BLACK. Eventually all of this CRAP will be much more consistent. It just started so how in the Hell can all of mgoblog understand it better than the WHOLE U of M coaching stuff and athletic departments? Yeah right. It's amazing the lengths people will go to, pretending like they understand exactly what's going on behind the scenes...
Convenient how you left out the name of the school you are referring to so people would not laugh you off the board. Suggesting that OSU is doing everything above board is a joke. It would be the first time they ever did so.
Wrong? You're using the terms "Rules" and "Illegal" wrong.
This take in convoluted. Please look up terms such as guidance, applicable state statutes, the meaning of inducement and collectives because this post is mixing them altogether in a gin highball shaker and poured into a non-sensical post.
The last thing on the mind of the "dude" in Miami is being in big trouble.
Don't use truths and facts because there's no fun or understanding in those things. What young man should come here if they're finding loopholes elsewhere? Hell I can't blame them. However, when the real rules begin to apply I'm hoping that we're on the right side of legality. It makes no sense to point the barrel at yourself!!!
Rules? and who is going to enforce these rules?
I used illegal in my short version, I have now edited that to be more in line with what I was trying to say. I wanted to point that out, since you singled out that I used the word illegal. I meant illegal by NCAA standards, not by every day law. I appreciate that’s all you took from my post. You know I’m right so you didn’t have anything else to say, except to point out my “flawed” language.
Also again, you’re correct I was meaning to say the lawyer/booster is worried about Miami getting in trouble, not himself. I put out a long message, didn’t proofread it, and didn’t put my thoughts out as well as I hoped. Honestly though, just sharing what I know. So if I have offended you or wronged you based on what I wrote, I apologize.
The point still stands. Other schools are breaking NCAA rules, which is what I was referring to as illegal. Illegal in the NCAAs eyes. Michigan will not go around breaking rules.
“I think teams will be punished for outright paying guys to come to their school.”
Punished by who? The NCAA? LOL
There are no rules that actually matter right now. You're living in fantasy land if you think anyone else gives a rat's ass about the "rules." Exactly who is going to enforce these rules?
Sad to say but the transfer portal will become active by the end of the season, no matter our record! Kids are going to want to be paid and not find NIL opportunities on their own.
Unsurprisingly current players at schools are not happy with high school players getting these huge offers. Until this balances out, you’re going to see some jealousy at the college level with high school guys getting these promises. Some of these guys are getting big offers and they’re completely unproven. That rubs some guys the wrong way. I think you’ll be surprised about which teams people are transferring from.
But transferring to get PAID elsewhere. Theyre not transferring to Coppin State so its a level playing field. They want theirs... which is the entire point. I agree taht folks will be unhappy - ESPECIALLy the high performers who think.. why should i bother being here making 10k at Joe's Donut house, when Miami, A&M, osu others are paying out big time? Michigan is fighting a silly losing battle based on no principle other than "our way is better"... but it should be corrected to.. "our way is better for us".. which ironically, very quickly, it will not be.
We're literally recruiting against the time value of money. Money now is always better than money later and our AD doesn't seem to understand that
I know he visited here but wasn’t a real option. But Bai Jobe, the #63 player in the country as a DE is almost a lock to Sharty. But I still think we land Etta.
Michigan 0, Other guys NIL
Toss aside the theories about a couple of assistants leaving and JH engaging the NFL. ND had 7 coaches leave and the prove. HC depart for the SEC for a totally unproven HC - yet they’re a top tier recruiting magnet?
This is “NIL magic” at work: People mocked Saban for stating the obvious about TAMU; MSU parades g wagons and suddenly recruits 4 stars; Mandel sees a contract for $8m; some no name lawyer claims $9m for #7 QB; UM wins the B1G and puts 9 guys in the NFL but can’t out recruit middle tier schools.
It sucks as a fan and we can debate the ethics & university implications, but UM football is playing safe checkers while the top 10+ programs play NIL chess.
Who is ND paying?
Seriously? Name a player in their ‘23 class who has received a dime or NIL deal?
ND recruited similar to Michigan (8-12 range) with a lazy recruiting HC. Now they have a young, energetic, recruiting first, HC and will probably finish top 5. Thats not NIL magic. And you act like ND is Purdue. ND is a top tier recruiting team historically, just not under BK. Fat Charlie couldn’t coach & he was pulling in top 3 classes at ND.
Trying to link ND recruiting success to NIL is laughable. In fact, multiple national sites have said that if not for NIL, Dante would have been part of ND’s class.
If ND can recruit legally & not pay players, keep their academic integrity & explain to recruits how NIL will work after they get to school that benefits them…Michigan can too. Stop making excuses. ND’s staff is destroying that excuse.
Trying to link ND recruiting success to NIL is laughable
That fact that you think in this day and age that ND isn't using NIL in recruit as well as they are is laughable
Charlie Weiis had 1 top-5 class; the rest were in the 8-12 range like Kelly did most years.
Also, many programs have young, energetic coaches who recruit well. The idea that ND, a private school with a large endowment and, let's be honest, some skeletons in their closet under Kelly for not always being on the up-and-up in terms of academic eligibility, wouldn't be able to leverage NIL to boost recruiting doesn't mesh with reality. Is Freeman a good recruiter? Sure, but the class he's pulling in is bananas and can't possibly be based on a magnetic personality alone. It's not illegal what he's doing but save me the "oh yeah, ND is just beating out schools for elite recruits because of Touchdown Jesus and a coach's smile" argument because it lacks substance.
Giving an upfront sum of money to a recruit who hasn’t played a down of college football, and who also can jump in the portal soon after with the cash is plainly stupid. I’d rather lose than do that shit.
And boosters throwing out millions so they can be proud of their potentially winning football team is equally stupid. What a waste of time and resources. This bubble will burst spectacularly.