MICHIGAN v ohio state: What are the Odds?
What are the odds for Michigan winning against both Maryland and OSU, losing one of the two, or losing both games.
Michigan wins both 34.2%. Michigan wins one of the two 59.2%. Michigan loses both 6.7%
What are the odds for OSU winning against both Michigan and MSU, OSU losing to one of the two, or OSU losing both games.
OSU wins both 53.2%. OSU wins one of the two 41.5%. OSU loses both 5.2%.
What are the odds for MSU winning both Ohio Sate and Penn State, MSU losing to one of the two, or MSU losing both games.
MSU wins both 7.7%. MSU wins one of the two 54.5%. MSU loses both 37.8%.
source: ESPN matchup predictor based on current football power index.
Interesting result and takeaways...
- OSU has the best chance to win both - but Michigan has better than 1 out of 3 chance to win both
- MSU has a higher chance of losing both games than Michigan has of winning both remaining games
- MSU has almost no chance to win both, OSU almost no chance to lose both
Of course the chance the refs screw Michigan in the OSU game is the most likely of all scenarios.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
If they are that good, why did they lose to Oregon? PSU gave them trouble at home. They are not as good a team as their previous teams. Now, could they play lights out against M? Of course. There is a good chance for that.
They have better WRs. We have a better DE. Our CBs are getting better. We just stopped a very good WR. I know OSU has three WRs, but if we can get pressure we can make their QB make mistakes or at least uncomfortable.
To your point on recruiting. We are never going to match OSU recruiting without winning on the field. Michigan is not going to get dirty on recruiting. Not saying OSU is but we simply lose to other non OSU programs that are not even that good. We have to win consistently. We have enough match ups at key positions this year. Let us see what happens. I am not getting my hopes up but all is not lost this year.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:30 AM ^
If they are that good, why did they lose to Oregon?
Who knows. Why did they lose to Purdue a few years ago and a few years before that? Regardless, they prepare more for UM and hate UM more than anyone else. UM will never have that advantage. We'll always get their best.
PSU gave them trouble at home.
PSU generally gives them trouble, yet UM does not. How PSU fares against OSU does not seem to be a good indicator of how UM will fare against them.
They are not as good a team as their previous teams.
We thought that in 2018 too, but :/
Now, could they play lights out against M? Of course. There is a good chance for that.
Unfortunately that seems to be the trend. Because OSU's culture has such hatred for UM and they prepare so much for them, they seem to always play their best. UM could beat them, but UM would have to play their best and catch OSU on a bad day.
They have better WRs.
Agreed
We have a better DE.
Agreed, but they have better DTs.
Our CBs are getting better.
Agreed, but because their WRs are so good and their offense is much more pass dominant that matchup still significantly favors OSU.
We just stopped a very good WR.
Agreed, but OSU has 2-4 of them.
I know OSU has three WRs, but if we can get pressure we can make their QB make mistakes or at least uncomfortable.
Agreed, can we get home fast enough? We also have a propensity to give up big plays.
To your point on recruiting. We are never going to match OSU recruiting without winning on the field.
I disagree, but it might take a different philosophy. Maybe it means taking advantage of NIL more. Maybe it means bending the rules more. Maybe it means an administration that values football more and is more lenient with admissions, transfers, etc. I know it won't happen, but if hypothetically Saban came to UM I have no doubt he could recruit with OSU in year one before ever playing a game.
Michigan is not going to get dirty on recruiting.
I think the current administration is not willing to do that. I'm not sure if the Carr era did or not, but UM had several top 5 classes under Carr including a #1 overall class and two #3 classes. UM signed 5 stars guys from out of region much more often. I think it's possible things can swing back that direction.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:08 AM ^
The first team to score 40 should win the game but Michigan is capable of scoring at 30 against these Buckeyes. I feel the margin of victory or loss will be much closer, say 7-10 points.
Let's face it, Michigan is far more talented than those Spartans yet they are 4 and 3 against Michigan under Harbaugh. It goes back to the old saying; throw out the records in a rivalry game. Yes, these matchups vs OH State have not been close over the years but this one has the feeling of being much closer and competitive. (I'm not predicting some big upset win for the good guys, just a much closer game)
Elite level recruits go to elite level teams and Michigan will not get there unless they start having at least 11 win seasons, so there's some agreement there.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:20 AM ^
Its funny when people speak the truth about this team, that makes them Harbaugh haters, or trolls or whatever.... its pretty sad.
This is tribalism 101. Members of a group with strong loyalty push for consensus and often push others out that don't subscribe to the same set of ideals. The same thing happens in politics, covid discussions, etc. This is one of the dangers of a group when we are not willing to engage in open dialogue and listen to other opinions. Everything doesn't have to be black and white. One can still love UM and appreciate what JH has done for UM while being pessimistic they will beat OSU and frustrated JH hasn't yet, just as someone can think Covid vaccines are safe and effective while still not wanting them if they have natural immunity. It's not all or nothing. There is nuance.
Michigan isn't as talented as OSU. Its not even close.
It depends on how you measure talent. The only real objective (somewhat) way is through recruiting. Yes, OSU is and has been more talented than UM for roughly the past 8 years or so and the gap is getting larger. But, there's more to OSU dominance than recruiting. As a point of comparison OSU is #3 in team talent, UM is #15, and MSU is #37. The difference between OSU and UM is 153 points. The difference between UM and MSU is 165 points. MSU is competitive with UM. To add further context, the last close game between OSU & UM was 2016. OSU's talent advantage was just 50 points (or about 1/3 of what it is now). But, during the Tressel/Carr era is about even, yet OSU continued to win all those games. And, PSU is roughly, albeit slightly less, talented than UM and they have been more competitive with OSU than UM has. So, there has to be more to it than talent, although the talent gap is widening as OSU continues to bring in top 3 classes every year whereas UM is generally more in the 8-15 range.
November 16th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
Hopefully that will even out when the playoffs are expanded to 12 teams in 2024. Until then the super teams will reign, I expect Clemson to be back next year looking at their recruiting chops over the last 4 years. Clemson is probably the only elite that is not playing up to their talent level. The only time Michigan was far below in talent to OSU and won was in 1969. That year OSU made a lot of mistakes and that is what it will take for a win this season. Because on paper OSU has the talent to win with ease.
November 16th, 2021 at 4:14 PM ^
Hopefully that will even out when the playoffs are expanded to 12 teams in 2024.
Agreed, but hope it's expanded sooner.
The only time Michigan was far below in talent to OSU and won was in 1969. That year OSU made a lot of mistakes and that is what it will take for a win this season. Because on paper OSU has the talent to win with ease.
I guess it depends on what you mean by "far below in talent". By recruiting rankings OSU was more talented in 2011. 2003 was their next most recent win and those two teams had pretty even talent in recruiting rankings. Any earlier than that and we don't have recruiting rankings handy on the internet.
Because on paper OSU has the talent to win with ease.
While I agree talent matters, I think the talent gap gets a bit blown out. The talent difference between MSU & UM is greater than that of OSU and UM. It stands to reason if UM treated OSU the way MSU treats UM they could be competitive.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
In terms of odds I'd want to be getting in order to actually put something substantial on the line (i.e. not just some piddly amount or internet bragging rights) then I feel like I'd want at least 4:1 or 5:1 type of odds so I guess I'm down in that 20-25% range that Michigan can beat OSU.
Obviously they're not invincible, and with Hutchinson and Ojabo there's a chance to disrupt that offense, but they get the ball out so quick when passing, and those receivers and Henderson are all game-changer level players. The only way I can see it going Michigan's way is to luck into a +2 turnover margin, keep the game to a low-possession one, hope they shoot themselves in the foot a few times and win a 31-28 type of game.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:12 AM ^
BLUF: 33% likelihood (1:2 odds) Michigan goes to Indy per FPI, 26% (1:3 odds) per Sagarin Index.
The following charts show the likelihood of Michigan beating out Ohio State in the final B1GE standings based on the Week 11 ratings from FPI and the Sagarin Index. The sum total probabilities are noted in the colored boxes in the center charts.
To further parse the center charts, the Difference in non-Head-to-Head Wins axis can be broken out as the following scenarios:
-2 => Michigan loses to Maryland AND OSU beats MSU (the least-likely outcome per FPI)
-1 => Michigan beats Maryland AND OSU beats MSU (the most likely outcome per both ratings)
0 => Michigan beats Maryland AND OSU loses to MSU => (the least-likely outcome per SAG) UM must beat OSU AND MSU must lose to PSU (FPI: 45.7%, SAG: 61.8%) for UM to go to Indy... so knock off 2.7% and 1.9% from the FPI and SAG UM totals for the MSU-PSU effect.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Odds are we are fucking due for some luck and officiating breaks!
I understand that each game is an independent event, but seeing some of the flukey shit Sparty has pulled off in wins against us over the years, it would be nice after 2 decades of OSU domination, if the football gods could throw us a bone here if we can keep it close.
Hopefully having it in Ann Arbor helps, would love to see a cold, wet, rainy day rock fight scenario, and some Auburn vs. Bama voodoo would be well past due.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:56 AM ^
Healthy starters for Michigan will be important. They'll need all hands on deck for the finally. The weather is another factor that could limit the passing attack for both teams and it's too far out to know how this will turn out.
Michigan's chance for winning The Game has improved quite a bit since the start of the season but it's not quite at 50/50 IMO. It's gone up from 1% to over 30% and climbing. The MSU @ OSU game will also tilt the odds one way or another. Michigan needs a solid win of the Terps as well.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
I don't want to be downer, but I feel like people who think we have a chance against OSU still think they're the team that lost to Oregon. They're not. They have like 4 or 5 WRs that will all inevitably be drafted into the NFL, a good enough OL, Stroud can get the ball to those receivers which isn't a huge ask, a true freshman RB who is already one of the best in the B1G, and a defense that is good enough to not let us run the ball down their throats. They scored 45 points in the first half against Purdue and OSU's receivers were barely even trying. They're going to have some plays that they've saved especially for us and it's not going to be close. As long as OSU has this absurd stockpile of NFL receivers, I don't think we have a chance
November 16th, 2021 at 12:56 PM ^
Thank you. I too find the Oregon reasoning laughable. That game seems like last year it's been so long ago and OSU is playing at a different level at this point.
I do think, however, we have a chance to win...you know "any given Saturday" and all that.
November 16th, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^
The played Nebraska a couple of weeks ago and Nebraska was down 17-23 at end of the third. I agree they aren't the same team week to week - I hope that MSU takes a lot out of them.
November 16th, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^
The predictive stats are interesting. I watched the OSU at Nebraska game like it sounds you did. Nebraska had a real shot to win it. Kicker and Coaches decision to kick on 4th and 3 and some non pi call magic were among the factors. OSU is talented. Not invincible.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:27 AM ^
There’s always a chance. I do think we need to use the tight ends early for ball control and to move the chains. Mix in the run but don’t bang our heads against the proverbial wall doing so. Try an end around at an opportune time and of course if you have something in the bag of tricks use it or lose it. This will be an all hands on deck situation. We can’t beat ourselves with turnovers or if they throw the ball at us or fumble it missing the opportunity to turn them over. At the same time the team has to play loose. Oh yeah and don’t look ahead and blow the Maryland game need to take care of business this weekend.
Get healthy and Go Blue.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:33 AM ^
It's rather unlikely, but here is how UM can defeat The Great Evil:
- Haskins will need the game of a lifetime. He's gonna have to go for at least 200 yards, to help keep OSU's offense off the field.
- UM's O-line, which has been good this year, will have to be exceptional vs OSU. Not only for Haskins, but for McNamara to have time to find the most open receiver each throwing down.
- Hutchinson and Ojabo perpetually hammer Stroud, to the point that Stroud cannot get any time for any of his throws, or Stroud gets knocked out of the game due to the constant violence from the two best DE's in college football.
UM can defeat OSU, it's a tall order.
#GoBlue
November 16th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
Only game anyone should be worried about is the one this weekend. Focusing on OSU is great way to lose to the tortoises. One game at a time.
November 16th, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
For sure, but im more worried about injuries for this weekend. How long do you play haskins? He is our biggest weapon for sure but is this the game to give Edwards a larger role so Haskins can rest a bit?
November 16th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
OSU offense is way too dynamic for the odds to be in Michigan's favor. It would take OSU making TOs and our offense scoring TD to TD with OSU. If its close in the 4th, then anything can happen and OSU may crack under pressure. My odds are 20 percent UM wins, and 80 percent we lose.
November 16th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
I think all the debbie downers need to realize that yes while UM hasn't seen a group of WR's like OSU's, OSU also hasn't seen a pass rushing duo like Obajo and Hutchinson so far this year. I can 100% say they are the best duo in the nation right now. Disrupting OSU's pass game some with the pass rush might at least slow them down a some or force a couple of turnovers. Coupled with a really good offensive game for UM against a suspect OSU pass defense and you never know what can happen. I mean I am scarred from past meetings just like rest of you but it's not like OSU hasn't been played tight by worse teams than UM this year. This is also is not a Don Brown defense that is going to foolishly try and match up athlete for athlete so that will at least be an improvement.
November 16th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
Here's hoping Harbaugh learned after 2018 and switches up the defensive signals for The Game, as we didn't hit their QB all game in that loss despite Winovich and Gary.
November 16th, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
run the ball, make the game shorter, get a very strong game out of Aiden/Ojabo.....we can do it.
Wont go score for score with them, so have to lean on our run game to eat up that clock.
November 16th, 2021 at 4:03 PM ^
Michigan doesn't win unless OSU turns the ball over.
I do expect the refs to be on Michigan's side, as the Big Ten REALLY wants parity to return to The Game since Michigan fans are increasingly apathetic towards the rivalry.
November 16th, 2021 at 4:30 PM ^
Beat Maryland!
I am with the group of people who don't think we have a chance.I would love to be surprised but I am where I am with the Lions. I gave up on them 25 years ago. Until UM get over the hump I do not believe they will/can win.
I think ALL these things need to happen for a win;
1) Both the offense and defense need to play their best game of the season by quite a bit.
2) OSU offense must play their worst game of the season,
3) Turnovers
4) The coaches have to come up with an amazing game plan. Plays and sets we haven't shown all year(still waiting for the pepcat throw), and few trick plays as well. One thing I know about Harbaugh is he likes consistency and does not like to take risks both which have to be thrown out of the window in this game. If we get a lead we need to keep firing and not go into a shell.
5) we need all questionable calls to go our way.
**Wild Card; Cade gets knocked out of the game and JJ comes in and pulls a Dwayne Haskins. This is basically the same as #1
That is my unqualified opinion.
If I had to guess I would give them a 5-10% of winning that game.
Until they win I will fully expect them to lose every year. I went to UM in the 90's when we would routinely beat them but now that OSU is on another level recruiting wise I think losing is the new norm with the occasional super lucky upset. I just hope we don't get jailsexed again.
BTW I am a Harbaugh supporter
November 18th, 2021 at 3:15 PM ^
OSU is going to beat Michigan unless they lose at home to MSU. In the unlikely event MSU upsets them than I can envision OSU getting upset in AA by Michigan.
MSU should beat PSU. The PSU has a good defense but the offense stinks whereas MSU has a well balanced and big strike offense, a decent run defense and a decent red zone defense. I expect MSU to win at home on senior day after losing on the road to OSU.