The Prompt:

Isaiah Todd’s decision came down to money: a G League team was able to offer over the table, the kind of scratch even schools that bag can't cobble together. If that’s how it’s gonna be, how would this affect college basketball?

Matt EM: Talked to my spectrum guy—looks like G League deals are now going in excess of 200k annually. Essentially it looks like the wheels are in motion for college athletics to cease in its current form or all the top 50 or so kids will go G league or overseas. 75k is one one thing, but 200-300k is no longer chump change.

It looks like the CBB product is going to be one big melting pot of mid major basketball at some point unless things change soon. The product is declining every year.

Anthony Ciatti: I figured this would happen once they got the G League to a place where it was developing players. It makes too much sense to be able to develop your players the way you want and the additional expense seems to be worth it. I have wondered if they will ever try to go to academy system and start at 16 instead of 18.

Matt EM: Word is Jalen Green is getting close to 500k for G League. If that's the new standard, CBB is effectively over.

Seth: Or CBB could just pay the guys that much. Because they are a larger operation with more fans and more money.

[After THE JUMP: What happens to college basketball if the Dooks can't Dook?]

Matt EM: Just got word that Rod Strickland offered Dalen Terry (a top 30-50 kid) a G League contract. Silver is giving Strickland and Abdur-Rahim the $ to compete.

Marc-Grégor:

Reporting w/ @Draftexpress: Jalen Green is making the leap to a reshaped NBA professional pathway program, a G-League initiative that’ll pay elite prospects $500K-plus and provide a one-year development program outside of minor-league’s traditional team structure. Story soon.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) April 16, 2020

Matt EM: Basically an NBA Academy setting as opposed to playing in the actual G League full time.

Seth: Sounds like a good time in basketball to have a John Beilein.

Matt EM:

Five-star prospect Isaiah Todd, who decommitted from Michigan, is expected to sign an NBA G League deal and join the new Southern California team featuring Jalen Green, sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 16, 2020

Smart move by Todd. With his physical profile, he's going to get drafted/signed regardless. Only he'll get 500k without the cloud of cheating hanging around.

Brian: This is what happens when the NCAA treats the NBA as an enemy and not a potential partner.

Matt D: Greed is a powerful motivator. Yeah...........its happening

The G-League also had a conference call with 5-star Briarcrest guard Kennedy Chandler’s parents this week, according to Kylan Chandler, his father.

— John Martin (@JohnMartin929) April 16, 2020

Going 2 years out at this point.

BiSB: I think the first question is, how many kids would this even be relevant for?

Ace: Yeah, the NCAA needs to give up the ridiculous facade of amateurism if they’re going to want to bring in elite talent, but it’s going to mostly be contained to the top 10-15 kids with the way it’s set up.

Brian: Not too many right now but could be more down the road:

The NBA has long-range hopes of growing its G League "Select Team" concept starring @JalenGreen into a "division" within the @nbagleague featuring multiple teams that can play against each other, league sources say

— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) April 22, 2020

Ace: That does seem inevitable. Even if it pulls in the top 50ish prospects, though, I think there’ll be a few guys who prefer college and it’s not like the game has totally benefited from a lot of players coming through for one season. Zions excepted, I don’t think the game is going to change that much.

Brian: Yeah, I don't watch college basketball because it's the most aesthetically pleasing form of basketball on the planet. I watch because it has stakes.

Ace: If you’re watching basketball to see the best basketball, it’s not the NCAA.

Depends on whom in this photo you find the most aesthetically pleasing. [Bryan Fuller]

BiSB: I question whether that would really draw that much attention. The novelty of a Zion-level player isn't enough to sustain an entire league.

Ace: If you’re watching for everything else, it’s enjoyably ludicrous.

BiSB: We won't ALWAYS be this starved for sports.

Ace: As an NBA fan: I’d 100% watch a division of top prospects. I watch out-of-market regular season games and I’m far, far from alone there.

Brian: I wonder how many "out of market regular season" NBA fans there are?

Ace: League Pass, man. It’s massive. They’ve sustained it since it was on satellite TV.

BiSB: But, again... NBA vs. what would essentially be a Mega-AAU

Ace: The coaching will be a huge, huge upgrade. Also, I’d assume, the production values.

Seth: If anything I think I'll enjoy college basketball more! If you don't follow the NBA that closely you don't care that much about one-and-dones. Anything that raises the time players in the NCAA tournament stick around the better. Storylines can last years instead of "Oh yeah, that guy played for Kentucky."

Matt D: I think the question is whether ADs are wiling to pay individual players in BB that much when it doesn't generate a ton of revenue. It creates tons of issues for MMs that don't have FB programs (Big East) that may equate to the cessation of CBB.

Brian: I don't get the upside from the NBA's perspective, seems like they probably made money on Zion Williamson being at Duke instead of the Fort Wayne Mad Antz.

Matt D: Exposure for their minor league and the ability to control development and pathway would be my guess.

Seth: CBB won't stop either way. It's a question of whether they will be substandard league.

Matt EM: Already are. Product is declining every year.

Seth: College hockey has been living this existence for decades. And they are horribly mismanaged with the worst postseason in sports. And while you can point to individual programs that don't have the following they used to, the effect of the OHL has mostly been to force coaches to get creative with over-agers.

Some guys will get half a million but the overwhelming majority of college basketball players are not going to the league and having a degree to fall back on is a better bet.

Matt EM: I don't follow hockey at all, does it have a following outside of the Midwest/Northeast?

BiSB: It's huge in Allentown, PA.

Yes, that is the look we are giving BiSB. Thank you Strauss. [JD Scott]

Anthony: In the US? The Canadian junior leagues have teams in Washington state and Portland and they all draw as well as major college hockey programs. The PNW has been underrated in that sense. The minute the Sonics left the NHL should have moved to Seattle.

Brian: Nobody watches CBB because it's the best possible basketball, I don't think not having 15 guys a year is going to make a ton of difference.

Anthony: I agree with Brian on that.

BiSB: And it would realistically only screw with the models of, say, five or six teams?

Brian: Honestly it might be better for tourney purposes because the difference between Zion and humans is less than the difference between really good humans and less good humans. And everyone likes to see Duke eat shit.

BiSB: Kentucky would be screwed, Duke and UNC and maybe Kansas would really have to adjust. But beyond that? It would only occasionally even make a difference.

Anthony: The big question would be is how many of your top 100 are being removed from the CBB equation every year? In a world where every NBA team has a G league team and is pulling one recruit each that removes the top 30. If you're taking 2 recruits each that is top 60. Thats a big difference.

BiSB: It would suck, though, given that Michigan is FINALLY entering that recruiting realm.

Alex Cook: I think this all might be kind of moot anyways if the NBA kills the one and done rule as expected.

BiSB: Presumably the G league isn't just taking high schoolers though.

Anthony: Matt, do you know about the daily operations in the G league? Their scheduling looks lighter than the NBA but more of a pro cadence than college. Do they work on skill development and have regular practices? Also I am deeply offended at the slight on the Fort Wayne Mad Ants.

Matt EM: Have no intel. I don't follow the G league. As an avid Lakers fan, I'm purely an NBA guy on that front. No real interest in watching G league players develop. I think the part being ignored by most is the domino effect. If the Select league takes the top 30 or so kids to fill out 5-6 teams, that means that prospects 30-50ish are now open season for the NBL

Ace: It’s certainly great for the NBA. They get more control over top prospects and no longer have to fly to New Zealand to see a lot of them. Plus this is a huge exposure boost for the G League, which totally lacks star talent.

Seth: The NTDP would beat most NCAA teams in head-to-head but how many people are nuts for NTDP versus, like, Merrimack?

Brian: The hockey analogy that makes sense is to point out that college hockey gets about 8 first round picks a year in a good year. Does that hurt its relative prominence in the sporting landscape? Absolutely. Does it torpedo the enterprise? No.

BiSB: SO, let's assume for the moment that we're talking the top 10-15 players. Minimal impact on the model of CBB, yes? With a disproportionate impact on the blue bloods?

Brian: Close to zero impact on the bottom line, with Zion type persons no longer existing in college being the "close to" part. But when Kobe, Kevin Garnett, and Lebron went right to the league NCAA basketball didn't get less popular.

Seth: More of an impact on the one-and-done factories, specifically. Nova gonna Nova.

The Ginger League: make this happen, NBA! [Bryan Fuller]

Ace: There’ll be a knockalong effect. Duke and UK going for more guys in the 20-50 range is gonna hurt, well, Michigan and Nova. Everyone’s gonna shift down a little bit. Won’t hurt the overall product too much, though.

Matt EM: I think the non one-and-done types being significantly worse these days will have an impact. High school basketball is at its worst right now nationally, since 2019 its declining every year and is a major factor in why CBB has been down.

Ace: Is there a systematic reason for that high school decline? It feels like a random dip to me.

BiSB: Not ALL of the top players will go the G-League route. For players who don't need the money (or are happy to take it under the table), there are advantages to being the biggest name on a college campus.

Matt EM: Really no explanation, but 3 years in a row certainly waters the talent level down for the future

Ace: To use the example we’ve been using, Zion benefited greatly from playing at Duke. He wasn’t even the highest-profile recruit in Duke’s class when he came in—that was RJ Barrett. Then again, New Orleans is now using Zion in about 30 ways Coach K didn’t or couldn’t because of his roster/system.

Matt EM: The key question IMO is how bad can CBB get in terms of quality before fans refrain from spending coin?

Ace: I think if that were going to happen, we’d have already passed that point, to be honest. If you’re looking at the game before the mid-1990s, the talent is on an entirely different level.

Matt EM: The last 2 years certainly point toward that being true.

BiSB: I doubt people would notice, unless you're watching Duke or UNC or Kansas.

Ace: The fans most impacted should be the ones least likely to give up on college basketball.

Louisville hasn't changed. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

BiSB: College basketball is so random and inconsistent anyway, you'd have to watch a LOT to notice a systematic decline.

Brian: It's possible that college looks worse relative to the NBA than it has in the past but I can't countenance the idea that the game is overall sloppier and less watchable than it was in past years.

Seth: People don't tune into MAC games, but bubble team basketball is great. My own eyes drew the line at Michigan without X or Livers versus Nebraska last year. If Michigan is going to the Sweet 16 with teams of the Walton&Rahk&Zak&Duncan&Donnal quality I honestly don't care.

Matt EM: I can certainly notice the difference between lets say 2013/2014 Michigan vs 2018-2020 Michigan. Pretty large gap there between NC appearance teams.

Ace: I’d still chalk that up to randomness more than a massive shift in talent in that short a period of time.

BiSB: Y'all watch the clips from The Last Dance? People will watch some... uh... non-ideal basketball.

/jacks up 17 footer

Ace: The NCAA introduced the 45-second shot clock in 1985. It didn’t go down to 35 until 1994. People watched that!

Brian: Just looking at TO rate, in 2002 the national average was 21.5 and in 2020 it was 18.9. This is probably the best/most-attractive period of NCAA basketball even with the top talent getting siphoned off early.

Ace: It might be difficult to parse out the analytics-driven movement towards greater efficiency from the talent issue with those numbers, but yeah, both the NBA and NCAA feature more aesthetically pleasing basketball than in the past.

BiSB: Also...

Brian: I... may not have watched much of that.

No comment. [via UM Bentley Library]

Ace: Well. Some of us were impressionable youths. Anyway, unless the new recruiting landscape also involves the yearly cancelation of the NCAA Tournament, I have a hard time seeing this as the end of college basketball. It’s more the end of John Calipari being able to build teams the way he does. And hopefully the (continued) beginning of the end of the NCAA’s whole amateurism facade.

Seth: That would be swell.

BiSB: This is going to be a very weird year to try to draw conclusions, though.

Brian: Calipari's already branching out into being the transfer king. And honestly Everyone Transfers All The Time is a bigger drag on college basketball than a few guys leaving for the league. Mid-major darlings getting picked apart before they can execute their upsets is bad for business

Seth: There was a much bigger effect on college basketball in our lifetimes; even 20 years ago most players were expected to be in college four years. They've already drained half of the plausible NBA talent and college hoops is more enjoyable than it was during the Fab Five.

Ace: This could even help alleviate that a little bit. We’ve seen how the pursuit of one-and-dones can impact a roster. Kentucky may not have to do that as much if the top guys are already gone.

Plus said pursuit can also push guys to transfer even if you don’t end up getting them.

(clears throat)

NOT THINKING OF ANY SPECIFIC SITUATION OR ANYTHING.

BiSB: But now those absolute 1-and-dones are going to be replaced with hoping-to-be-1-and-dones-if-things-break-right

Brian: It might but the transfer numbers are so staggering that any NBA changes are a drop in the bucket.

Matt EM: So functionally, do we think more parity on the court is ultimately better for viewing purposes?

Ace: Not really. Parity is overrated.

Matt EM: ^^^^THIS

Ace: The Zion team was the first Duke squad I enjoyed watching in… a long time.

Brian: I dunno, I thought last year's Big Ten was a riot.

Fun! [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Matt EM: I've always maintained you need a Goliath in order for David to be relevant.

Brian: Penn State was interesting!

Ace: That’s a tough sell for a lot of people.

Matt EM: March Madness just isn't the same without the threat of a massive upset.

Ace: Those will still happen, though. There’ll still be huge gaps between programs.

BiSB: Also, as someone pointed out earlier, this isn't necessarily gonna help parity. It's just going to slide everything down 10-15 guys.

Ace: Smart someone, that someone.

BiSB: Eh.

Ace: Fair.

Brian: It'll help a little bit because there's a bigger gap between Zion and humans than humans and other humans.

Seth: I don't think there will be that much more parity. The top teams will have to change their models a bit.

Ace: The top teams may even realize that stability isn’t the worst thing. Kentucky hasn’t been tearing it up of late by their recent standard.

BiSB: Betcha UNC wishes they had a little more continuity this year.

Seth: Izzo's going to love it. This setup is made for programs that can get top-50 players and neg them into staying four years.

Brian: There won't be any more Anthony Davis Kentucky teams. Personally, I don't care about superteams and would hate it if Michigan had a contender that ate it against one of them so good riddance.

Seth: You wanted to watch the 2014 game.

Brian: 2014 Kentucky was an eight seed

Ace: Yeah, that was in their weird in-between period. They’ve been… volatile.

Matt EM: On the court, we're talking about watching teams take plenty of semi-contested jumpers because nobody has The Guy

Ace: There’ll still be college guys. Cassius Winston wouldn’t be a candidate for this new league, for one example.

Matt EM: Good point.

Seth: And there will be fewer rim-protectors.

Ace: The current setup is going to remove, like, maybe three elite centers from the country. James Wiseman played for about five minutes this year.

Seth: That means two from the Big Ten then, right?

Ace: The Big Ten… doesn’t get those centers.

Brian: Here's this year's kPOY top ten:

BiSB: I'm assuming this league would pull the same style of players the NBA would pull. That typically doesn't include Enormous Statue Guy guys.

Brian: Exactly one of those guys would be a candidate for AAU++

Carey.

Seth: I also see some peacock feathers flashing a big "Hey, college basketball is still going to be pretty fun" sign.

Ace: College basketball has always been the home for basketball’s misfit toys and that’s not going to change. To me, it’s part of what makes the sport appealing. There’s never going to be a player like Zavier Simpson in the NBA and he was a lot of fun to watch.

Brian: Hell yeah, you get guys like X and Garza and Isaiah Washington

UNIQUE BASKETBALL TALENTS

Ace: (give me a moment to upload jacob young dot gif)

JACOB YOUNG, BABY

BiSB: "Irrational Optimism" is the heart and soul of college sports.

"MAYBE THIS IS THE TIME FOR nope never mind."

Ace: Even without Zions, there’ll be guys who think they’re Zions, and that’s something.

Brian: The RAC was packed and rabid to watch that team play. College basketball is an unkillable zombie that will barely notice this, the end.

BiSB: Yep, if there's one thing we've learned, it's that nothing can stop college basketball...

Brian: Dammit Bryan.