January 2nd, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
Penn State regresses to the mean in '19.
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
I'd say '18 was their regression to the mean. No Barkley and (more importantly) no Moorhead means no contending.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:05 PM ^
True, they regressed this year. They'll fall further without McSorley
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
The only people who thought they would not regress are PSU fans.
January 2nd, 2019 at 11:09 PM ^
And the AD at USC. Which famous person is it now, Lynn Swann? Marcus Allen is clearly next.
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^
Penn State's 2008-2017 average was 8.9 wins and 4.0 losses.
So 2018's 9-4 record was nearly precisely the mean.
I think 9-4 is the baseline prediction for ANY Penn State season in future years. It's still January, but if I had to go over/under right this instance I'd go over for 2019. The schedule is fairly favorable and the team was fairly young this year. Even w/ these 2 departures, that would be only 8 lost of of the 44-man 2-deep.
I see it here fairly often, but predictions of "Penn State might go 6-6" seem ridiculous to me. They were better than that even during the heart of the sanctions era. And Franklin, for his faults (I recognize them and don't like him), recruits well and is a considerably better coach than 2000s-era JoePa. The program may not be elite but it should annually get 8+ wins.
Anything like 6-6 in 2019 entails PSU going 0-4 against Iowa, MSU, U-M and OSU ... and 2-2 against Pitt, Purdue, Maryland and Minnesota. I don't really see that. They're simply considerably more talented than those last 4.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
Appreciate the insight and I see no reason to disagree. Penn State is not Michigan State. You never know because of injuries, etc., but 8-5/9-4 seems to be the floor for a healthy-ish Penn State team.
Honestly, your program and Michigan's seem to be in very similar places right now.
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:17 PM ^
I agree: U-M and PSU, on the field, are not overly far apart.
Someone else made this comment earlier this fall, but PSU's 2016-2018 seasons look remarkably like Michigan's 2015-2017 seasons:
PSU 2016/Michigan 2015: Coming off an uninspiring previous season, the team strongly overachieves pre-season expectations. There is one blowout loss on the resume but the season is still an unqualified success.
PSU 2017/Michigan 2016: A legitimate National Title contender that doesn't get there. 2 regular-season losses: (1) an excruciating come-from-ahead loss at Ohio State plus (2) a road game against a good team but still a team that should have been defeated. The team finishes in the Top 5 in S&P+ but it's bittersweet. A definite feeling of "this team should have done better, it should have been a CFP team."
PSU 2018/Michigan 2017: Younger team, lost a lot of players from the previous year's near-elite team. Overall, won a number of games but didn't have any truly great wins. Again, a similar set of losses. The losses included (1) a "never had a chance blow-out road loss", (2) a "a lot of post-game regrets, we could have won" home loss to OSU, (3) a "we really screwed around and gave the game away" home loss to MSU, and (4) a "team was favored but made mistakes and wasn't overly inspired, so they lost against a more inspired team that didn't make mistakes" January 1 Florida Bowl game loss to an SEC team.
The analogy won't hold forever, of course. But if it does, PSU will be in that 9-10 win range in 2019.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:24 PM ^
Yeah, there's no reason to imagine they'll crater unless they get super-unlucky and/or super-injured; see MSU this year where they can't keep anyone healthy and also lose a bunch of 1-score games (ASU, Nebraska, Oregon). PSU recruits well enough to be a top-tier team nationally, but like everyone else in the Big 10 east everyone sort of beats up on each other so its hard to emerge unscathed. And PSU benefitted from Michigan being down during the late Hoke run; they absolutely picked up some guys that OSU didn't take that maybe Michigan would have grabbed.
PSU is a lot like Michigan in that there appears to be a ceiling for them that is "pretty good, not super-elite". That may change with the shifting tides at OSU, but I'm not sure.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:06 PM ^
PSU got a nice recruiting class so they might not regress much
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:16 PM ^
As long as Franklin is coach, without some all-star OC covering for him, PSU will continue to do less with more.
Franklin is a great recruiter and PSU has some elite talent.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:25 PM ^
Field Goal Franklin
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^
Not many freshman make a difference. Michigan had the consensus #1 player in country in 2016 and Rashan had a lot to learn. It is rare that a freshman recruit can elevate a program. Maybe a QB or RB, but that is about it and that is very rare. Contribute? Yes. But to make a difference for 8-4 to 11-1? 1 in 1000
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:54 PM ^
Exactly. And if a program is counting on true freshmen to make a significant impact they're in trouble. To really tie recruiting into program expectations, I believe you have to look at the last 3 or 4 classes together which translates to OSU having the edge but the difference between Michigan, OSU, and PSU is not all that great.
January 3rd, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
I think you can count on freshmen if you are a good coach and put them in position to succeed.. Look at the QBs in the National Championship game .. 1 came in and won the championship as a true freshman.Now another one has got them in the title game ...
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
Their schedule next year is absurdly soft. They might be worse than they are they this year but I don't see how they lose more than three games next year
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
@Iowa, Michigan, and @OSU are 3 likely losses.
Then @MSU, Pitt, and Purdue are very lose-able. I see 8-4 being very likely, and 6-6 possible if their offense really falls off a cliff losing McSorely.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
QB is the key. If they find a good replacement, they have enough coming back to from 8-4 or 10-2.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:40 PM ^
PSU could still lose Miles Sanders to the NFL. They still have Slade and 2 four* frosh coming in, but Sanders is pretty good.
January 2nd, 2019 at 8:44 PM ^
And the bowl game. That's how they got to 9-4 this season.
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:25 PM ^
2018 = Penn State's mean
January 2nd, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
How many is Rutger sending?
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
All of them.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:05 PM ^
And D. Long just announced he is going pro. Bummer for us but good for him.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
Penn State is gonna suck.
It appears that our crumbling program is going to be alone with OSU at the top entering the week of The Game.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
This take is really off to me. They've had some incredible recruiting classes back to back, return essentially their entire starting defense, have a soft schedule, and a lot of talent at the skill positions. I'd say 10-2 is their most likely record with 11-1 and beating us in their white out game more likely than 9-3
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^
In the last two years they’ll have lost a generational skill player talent, their all time leading receiver and now their best quarterback since Kerry Collins.
I understand the recruiting rankings, but those classes are being coached by James Franklin now, a guy who is 3-12 against Michigan, OSU and MSU in five years.
And that schedule isn’t that soft. They get Purdue and they’re at Kinnick the week before our game. One other schedule note, their OSU game is the week before Michigan.
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
Wait, they play Iowa and OSU the week before Michigan? You're right man, that schedule doesn't sound soft at all.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:00 PM ^
Indeed. Penn State vs. ohio state in Kinnick Stadium is a neutral site game I absolutely must see!
They get Purdue and they’re at Kinnick the week before our game. One other schedule note, their OSU game is the week before Michigan.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
Did you see them against Kentucky? They had the most talent on field by a long shot. I would agree they are 10-2 with McSorley... without him, they will win maybe 8 games next year and that is if they beat Michigan.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:50 PM ^
The game they lost? The game they needed to score the last 17!points in to make competitive? You may have more faith in Tommy Stephens than me.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:29 PM ^
They aren't going 6-6, but their offensive line remains an issue (and has been really since Franklin arrived), they are going to be replace McSorley with Not McSorley, which will be a downtick (Stevens looks fine), and name one other skill position player beyond Sanders and Hamler that seem above-average? It's hard.
And their schedule isn't super-soft; they have to go to Iowa, @MSU, @OSU, @Minnesota, and home to Michigan. Sure, it's not a murderer's row, but those are all teams that can beat them.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:44 PM ^
Don't forget Buffalo...
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:16 PM ^
MSU will undoubtedly get everyone back - hoping Batchie and Willekes go pro. But with Willekes breaking his leg maybe he comes back.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^
They will all return. Only underclassman to declare is layne. That defense will be very vey good next year.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
The D will be good, but Dantonio is Reverse RichRod - all defense, no offense.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
RichRod = Flash
Dantonio = Reverse Flash
Theory checks out.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:10 PM ^
I think dantonio will hire a decent OC. They'll be good next year
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:31 PM ^
What has Dantonio ever done to suggest he'll hire a good OC?
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:42 PM ^
Decent DC? Yes, Decent OC? Ah, no.
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
MSU's first and second string QBs are pure shit.
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:14 PM ^
And that's being kind.
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^
Haskins threw 50 TDs this year. That is ann absurd stat for a BIG QB. Can DMac do this when he gets the chance? Will DMac take the leap and replace Shea? Will Harbaugh replace Shea if DMac shows he can dominate (in practice)?
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:57 PM ^
Can Dylan McCaffrey do it, yes. Will he be in an offensive system that puts him in a position to do it? Doubtful.
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:04 PM ^
1. Not in Harbaugh's offense.
2. No
3. No
January 2nd, 2019 at 2:58 PM ^
Wisconsin OL David Edwards is forgoing his final year.
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
Alize Mack, TE for Notre Dame declared for the draft as well. Only player from ND so far.
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
OSU: Nick Bosa, Dremont Jones, Mike Weber are going early.
Have to think Haskins and WR KJ Hill will declare at any time.
OL Michael Jordan and S Jordan Fuller could stay or go.
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
Will be interesting to see who gets drafted higher between Higdon and Weber.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:40 PM ^
I’d be pretty shocked if Jordan doesn’t declare, he’s got some hype right now but dude is not good. He’d be an idiot to stay and he’d lose a lot of money.