ESPN stats on Gardner

Submitted by ish on

es.pn/15dmxfS

the article says that Gardner didn't have enough attempts to qualify for their QBR ranking.  however, if he had, he would've lead the nation, with a tenth of a point higher than manziel.  also talks about the emergence of gallon.  nothing we don't already know, but just another way to measure his success last year.

JimBobTressel

August 22nd, 2013 at 11:55 AM ^

This is why I'm not overly worried about the loss of Darboh. The receiving core will be better than last year.

MCalibur

August 22nd, 2013 at 3:43 PM ^

Would you feel differently if Devin had shredded Air Force, UMass, Purdue, and Illinois too? Bigger sample, no?

Alabama, no, he gets frustrated like everyone else they play. Notre Dame, Michigan State, Nebraska... he probably would have done Denard or better against them.

Dude was legit and showed it against reasonable competition. Give him his Dap.

david from wyoming

August 22nd, 2013 at 5:20 PM ^

There is a pretty big difference between 'dude was legit' and 'dude was better than the guy that won the heisman'. Extrapolating from a small data set can be really silly at times.

Extrapolating

gbdub

August 22nd, 2013 at 10:59 PM ^

Is thirteen games, four of which are against LA tech, SMU, SC state, and Sam Houston, really a much more significant sample?

Not saying Gardner was better than Manziel, but if we really want to talk statistical significance, a full season isn't THAT much better than a little less than half a season. Predicting the future based on either is potentially troublesome.

Soulfire21

August 22nd, 2013 at 12:02 PM ^

In last season’s loss to the Irish, the Wolverines did not score in six trips to the red zone.

That probably will be the difference this year, Notre Dame's offense looks to be a notch below last year's and if Gardner can continue his red-zone success (as mentioned in the article) you have to like our chances.  This article has me brimming with confidence of a victory over Notre Dame.

Sideline

August 22nd, 2013 at 3:25 PM ^

Notre Dame SUCKED last year. That team was lucky in how many of their wins? 

Had to blow out Navy to prove they were solid.

Set to go to OT against PURDUE (6-7 Team)

No need to bring up the 'win' against us. 

The game Stanford [should have] won but the officiating ruled in favor of ND for a fumble by Stanford on the goal line in OT which would have been 20-20.

BYU- where had BYU played any defense in the second half they would have won.

MY FAVORITE: Pitt missing a FG;  extending OT and let ND win it. In 3 OTs. 'nuff said. (also a 6-7 team)

 

GoBlueInNYC

August 22nd, 2013 at 12:58 PM ^

Not to mention, we're entering year 3 of the Borges era. It's not like we don't have information about how his play calling has gone.

(Preemptive response to obvious: Yes, Borges had to deal with Denard and a spread-built offense and now can do more Borgesian things. But he has already displayed a frustrating mix of "totally gets it" and "totally doesn't get it" in his play calling, from game to game and sometimes within in the same game.)

gbdub

August 22nd, 2013 at 1:13 PM ^

Eh. Both our losses in 2011 were pretty clearly on Big Al.
But in 2012 I'd say our losses were a general thumping by a far superior team, a close loss due mostly to turnovers, Denard's boo boo, a bafflingly anemic and conservative 2nd half against Ohio, and a major choke job by the secondary.
Among those I'd blame Borges really for only the Ohio loss, which while painful was fairly meaningless in terms of our final standing. Maybe you could fault him as the QB coach for Bellomy, but that's not his play calling.
Outside Ohio I think his Gardner gameplans were pretty good.

GoBlueInNYC

August 22nd, 2013 at 1:30 PM ^

I just meant that we have enough data on Borges to have thoughtful discussions about his playcalling abilities. I mostly wanted to head-off a "but we haven't seen him not have to use Denard!" dismissal.

I've gotten in (probably too many) arguments about him this off season to want to get into it again (it's one of those topics that I don't feel really strongly about, but inevitably get way too invested in once I actually start debating it). But yeah, the gist I've come away with is that he's had some good games, is probably response for some losses in there, but generally seems to have done better than I tend to give him credit for.

gbdub

August 22nd, 2013 at 3:30 PM ^

I think "we've seen him in enough games" is probably fair, but then "Borges with Gardner will be very different that Borges with Denard" is probably also fair, if nothing else based on what we saw at the end of last year.

What I will say that I consider a valid criticism of Borges is that, so far, I've yet to see him deploy a really coherent scheme. By that I mean that, over a series of plays or a game, I haven't seen the ability to punish a defense for overreacting to a play or formation with wrinkles and surprises. The plays haven't always fit well together and seem to be telegraphed by personnel and/or formation. The most famous example is the bubble screen conspiracy - a tailor made counter / constraint play that was never really deployed for reasons that were never terribly clear. Another that bothered me was running power play action and never throwing from it, defeating the whole purpose of play action. I don't mind grinding on a few ineffective plays (I-form power runs!) if they open up something else. But we rarely did the "something else".

I'm still in the boat that this season is the Borges make-or-break. I'd say he's net-neutral right now, but this year he's got enough of the sort of pieces he wants in place that we should start to see a coherent offense. The execution might not always be pretty due to inexperience, but I would expect to start to see us with a more complete offensive system rather than a grab bag of a few plays that work and a few that don't work and don't make the good plays any easier.

Wolverines Dominate

August 22nd, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^

Haters choose to ignore facts and instead downplay Devin based on the teams he played. The same could be said about Braxton Miller, but Buckeye fans, of course, ignore that.

mh277907

August 22nd, 2013 at 1:23 PM ^

Isn't it somewhat relevant to take into consideration how he played against certain competition? Minnesota had the 4th ranked passing D in the B10, Iowa was 7th, NW 12th, and OSU 11th. USC was 5th in the SEC. My point is he did not play elite defenses against the pass. Though he put up good numbers against Minn, NW and Iowa, he struggled against OSU- despite their terrible seconday. I am sure he will take a step forward this year but I don't think it is crazy to critique his not-so-good performances against certain competition.

gbdub

August 22nd, 2013 at 3:12 PM ^

Maybe none of those Ds were "elite" for some arbitrary definition of the term. But what we're comparing that to is the production of say Johnny Manziel for an entire season. You may recall these results held up in the Mathlete's analysis with advanced stats.

And I'd argue that the average ability of the Ds Gardner faced was better than the the average ability of the Ds faced by Johnny Football or whoever, when you consider that a full-year starter in an FBS conference typically has a few early season cupcakes to pad his stats.

So it's a small sample size and not necessarily a guarantee of future performance, but beyond those caveats it's a valid discussion.

tragictones

August 22nd, 2013 at 4:35 PM ^

He purposely reports that Minnesota was 4th in the B1G and South Carolina was 5th in the SEC.  He is trying to make them sound run of the mill.  But, what he doesn't mention is the the B1G and the SEC were both excellent in pass defense.  The SEC had 4 teams in the top 20 nationally.  B1G has 6 teams in the top 20.  The ACC only had 1 top 20 team.  The PAC 12 only had 1 top twenty team.  A 4th or 5th ranked team from those conferences is unimpressive.  A 4th or 5th ranked team in the B1G and SEC is still very good.

Minnesota is ranked 12th in the nation and South Carolina is 21st.  Elite?  Eh, I usually consider top ten elite.  But, Gardner played fine against the top 25 pass defenses.  He will be fine.

LSAClassOf2000

August 22nd, 2013 at 1:25 PM ^

Using the typical passing efficiency metrics, Devin Gardner rated at about a 161 given that he was 75-126 for 1,219 yards with 11 TDs and 5 INTs. Had he qualified based on a sample of five games, that would have put him in the Top 10 in Division I by rating, and the TD percentage of 8.73% might very well have been Top 5 if you sorted the list that way (in a meeting and I don't have my spreadsheet for this stuff - could be wrong). The 9.67 yards per attempt might have been Top 20 or so. Anyway it is sliced, a very impressive performance. 

Swazi

August 22nd, 2013 at 1:26 PM ^

And that's DG only playing B1G teams and South Carolina. imagine his numbers along with playing Western Michigan type teams early on pre conference gauntlet.