Big-10 O/U win totals; Michigan 9.5/under, ohio 11.5/under
CBS Writer Tom Fornelli goes over each Big-10 teams O/U win total (as provided by 5Dimes), and makes his prediction. Link? LINK
He thinks OSU's best chance at a loss is from Michigan.
Says Michigan has a tough schedule which would make the smart money on under 9.5. (I think he's wrong)
And MSU, well, they have no offense, so he has no confidence.
We're definitely still at the point where an injury or two to a posistion we don't have much depth results is bad. A key guy missing a quarter could result in a loss, a long term injury and suddenly 7 or 8 wins is a real possibility.
While I agree with you that we should expect 10 wins, I think 9.5 is the perfect number for Michigan. ND, OSU and one of MSU/Neb/NW is what most are probably thinking.
You're really going out on a limb with that one, partner.
I'll take the over! Devin will beat the general expectations, and so will our DL. Very thorough defense altogether IME.
Maize glasses off...11.5 under for Ohio is the easiest money sports betting will ever give you.
That surprised me, too. OSU's schedule, for those interested:
Buffalo
San Diego State
@ Cal
Florida A&M
Wisconsin
@ Northwestern
(bye)
Iowa
Penn State
@ Purdue
(bye)
@ Illinois
Indiana
@ Michigan
That's garbage, but I'll still take the under.
The money line is a factor, the UNDER is (-180), so you would have to put up $180 to win $100. So the 11.5 line has a fair amount of risk to it. Sportsbook as the line at 11, with -115 as the Money line either way. I think that with 11 as a push, it is a decent bet as well.
I'm not quite prepared to go as far as predicting a win for Cal, but I think this could be a shocking loss for OSU during their "Coronation To AWESOMENESS!" tour (aka 2013 regular season schedule).
As you pointed out Cal gave OSU all they could handle last season in Columbus (they actually outgained OSU by about 100 yards and missed 3 FG's in a 7 pt loss) and now the game will be in California with its accompanying 3 hour time change. Add in a new offensive philosophy for Cal (no huddle spread attack) which OSU will not have seen much film on and I think this is actually one of the more likely possible losses on OSU's schedule and that says a lot about just how pathetic their 2013 schedule is.
To add a little to this, here's what Massey's preseason estimates are for each game on Ohio State's slate:
Opponent | Result | PF | PA |
Buffalo
|
97%
|
38 | 10 |
San Diego St
|
84%
|
35 | 21 |
California
|
69%
|
31 | 24 |
Florida A&M
|
100%
|
49 | 0 |
Wisconsin
|
57%
|
30 | 27 |
Northwestern
|
50%
|
31 | 30 |
Iowa
|
83%
|
28 | 14 |
Penn St
|
65%
|
28 | 22 |
Purdue
|
74%
|
35 | 27 |
Illinois
|
90%
|
34 | 14 |
Indiana
|
87%
|
41 | 24 |
Michigan
|
45%
|
27 | 30 |
Based on the simulation, we are the only team against which Ohio State would be a slight underdog, although this simulation also has them in a toss-up against Northwestern and they are only slightly favored against Wisconsin. The average Sagarin rating (using 2012 numbers) of the teams on the Ohio State schedule would be 68.33, which would be good for about 71st or 72nd in the list he compiles, I believe. By comparison, the average Sagarin rating for Michigan's slate is 73.02, which would be in the mid-50s on the list. Massey also puts us in the 40%-60% range against Notre Dame (42%), Northwestern (48%), Penn State (51%), Michigan State (51%), Ohio State (55%) and Nebraska (59%).
I'm surprised by the disparity in the win % for UM versus Notre Dame and OSU. I think the ND game will be more difficult as Michigan's OL will likely still be very raw that early in the season but I think OSU is actually a little bit better than ND. A 13% difference seems too great.
to agree. Back to back undefeated seasons, regardless of the opponents is almost unheard of.
I'll go with the "on" for that 9.5 number. I say we go exactly 9.5-2.5. Winning more than 9.5 games and winning fewer than 9.5 games both seem ridiculous to me.
Ohio's schedule is laughable. But even more laughable is that all the sanctions did last year was help Ohio avoid getting ROFLstompted at the hands of Alabama in a bowl game...
I wish we didn't have a bowl ban last year for obvious reasons but it would have also been interesting to see who got left out of the NC game. It would have been very hard to keep an undefeated ND or OSU team out and probably equally as hard, if not harder, to keep out a 1 loss Alabama. The drama of that situation would have been crazy.
"I wish we didn't have a bowl ban last year ..."
What's this "we" shit? You French, son?
but it is still pure speculation that OSU would have remained undefeated. They would still have had to win the B1G championship to get through the schedule undefeated and even put the people in charge of selections in the dilemma you're talking about.
Again, I'm not saying they wouldn't have won, but they almost lost to teams far worse than Nebraska last year so it wouldn't have been a given that they would have remained undefeated. If it happened that they did lose, there's no way a 1 loss team (whoever they might be) gets into the national championship over Alabama.
Nebraska did get a pretty good beating by OSU when they did play last year...
but still, it wouldn't be the first time one team trounced another only to lose in the following match up. I'm not saying it would have been likely OSU loses, but it wasn't a certainty either.
So does this mean he thinks we'll beat Ohio and STILL lose 3 games??
That's what I'm expecting. A loss to ND and two conference losses most likely coming from the away games at PSU, MSU and NW.
Even if Michigan can't prevent OSU from going to the title game, I have a feeling Bama will put them right back in their place. Give Saban a month to prepare, and in no world or alternate dimension would I ever bet against him.
Still, I like our chances to crush some Fuckeye hopes on Nov. 30th. Brady Hoke does not lose at home.
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and hope that that "fuckeye" remark was a typo rather than on purpose. Just in case though, most people around here frown on that sort of thing (O$U, Fuckeyes, that sort of thing). Just FYI.
For betting is the 8.5 line on most sites (Sportsbook has it). The Over is -130, not much more than the STD vig and if you are looking at 9-10 wins in your predictions... either is a winner!
i think michigan will end up playing 14 games this year, which means that to get 5 losses and under 9.5 they will need to lose the bowl game, the conf champ game, osu, ND and one of MSU, Nb or Nw. i guess that is possible, but i am trying to stay positive this year, so gimme the over!
but I think the over/under is for the 12 regular season games only.
Rank Team
1 Louisiana Tech
2 Oklahoma St
3 West Virginia
4 Tennessee
5 Baylor
6 Miami, Fl
7 Houston
8 Louisiana
9 Ohio St
10 ULM
11 WKU
12 Stanford
13 Arkansas
14 Arizona
15 Oregon
122 Georgia St
123 Nevada
124 Georgia
125 Michigan
126 Texas Tech"
I think Phil's computer is broke!!
Well that's "Most-Improved."
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/stats/byteam?cat1=defense&cat2=Passing&conference=I-A_all
Our pass defense was #1 last year. And LA Tech was last place. Phil's saying LA Tech is going to be most improved, going from last place to much higher, while Michigan stays near the top.
I'll happily take the over.
Michigan will win at least ten regular season games, quite possibly more.
Your user name and your prediction are extremely consistent. Thank you from all of us.
we lose more then 2 games for the 12 game regular season. If this bet includes 2 more games (i.e. Conference championship and bowl game), this 9.5 total is laughable!...I think we will win all 12 games then MAYBE lose to Ohio in Conf championship and then depending on the bowl, win or lose there....Overall, I expect 13-0 and National championship game...watch and learn!
How well will the interior offensive line play...Michigan will have the talent but will lack experience. Will the defense be able to carry the team during the start of the season until the offense gels. Or will Gardner come out a hot good to great QB, like I think he will! We have some good talent at RB, will we finally have that go to back? Still a lot of questions. We'll see if the full potential of this team will be realized.
My thoughts are if we lose at home to ND in a close game, we probably end up 9-3 or 10-2. If ND whips us at home it could be an 8-4 season. If we beat ND at home we'll probably go on to 10 or 11 win season.
I'm really excited about this season and I will be really interested in our defense. Greg finally is starting to get the talent and depth for a good defense, which will be great in a few more years. Even if we go 8-4 this season, I think next season we will win 10 games with a good chance of defeating OSU in Columbus!
Worse case scenario 7-5, Best case scenario 12-0! Most likely 9-3 and a first place tie in the legends division. I think we will beat MSU on the road, NE and OSU at home. We may lose close games at home against ND and to NU on the road, and probably in an upset to a conference team.