Odds on some remaining Recruits & Class Size
We are at 17 recruits verbally committed, and are finished with the QB, OL & TE position. I'm interested in two things. First, I'd like to get a sense of the odds of the following recruits coming to Michigan. Second, with seventeen already, do we have room to take all eight below and end up with 25? I realize that the odds and the timetable are different for each recruit, and the one thing I'm sure of is that it probably won't be exactly these individuals who commit. However, this would be a great finish to the class, and would fill all the needs.
- Poggi
- LaCouture
- Treadwell
- Isaac
- Levenberry
- Cravens
- Fuller
- One more unidentified WR. (Allen? Massington? LaRue?)
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It's cold and dark down here
I'll add my own. It's 100% that nobody knows exactly how much attrition there will be in the next 9+ months. The staff has some control over who comes back for a 5th year, but there will usually be some surprises.
Especially considering our sudden depth in the back side of the defense. I'm sure Angry Michigan _____ Hating God will strike someone down and send him to the deptsh of DII football.
I feel good about Poggi and Isaac
Ok about Levenberry and Treadwell
And not that great about Cravens
Think of the last X years of recruiting when you had your top X list of recruits. How many of them do we normally end up getting? For sure not 100%. I imagine a few out of the Treadwell-Levenberry-Cravens-Mathis-[Insert Name of Top250 WR]-Isaac ends up going elsewhere
Idk your list looks great, but not sure if that's totally what they are looking for. As I see it Michigan will be trying hard to get a nose tackle and Poggi has been said to be a 3-tech, Lacouture is a 5-tech/3-tech which is also where Joe Mathis would play if he did so happen to come here, but I don't think were really stressing over another player to play the strong side. It would be more of a luxury to get another strong side d-lineman, and I think that is the same situation for the cornerback position. Since we did tell some corner prospects that we our full at the position, so its either K. Fuller or bust. And the tightend position might not be over just yet I know no new offers have went out, but the coaches did say that might be trying to take 3 tightends in this class which kinda makes sense if you check our depth for next year. We don't really have many blocking tightends. It does seem like we will be taking two more receivers because there is so much talent that has high intersest in at least comng for a visit so I dont think we will be able to turn down that oppurtunity. Also Cravens isn't a must get even though I want him very very much he will also fall into the luxury category. I think it will be more like this:
1. Issac
2. Treadwell
3. Poggi
4. Nose Tackle
5. 2nd receiver (Allen, Massington, Ateman, Bradshaw)
I think the next two spots are left open for a variety of people, but if I was to say who we want the most
6. Levenberry
7. Cravens
The 6 and 7 spot could also be filled by a strongside player like LaCouture or Mathis and maybe a third tight end who has yet to be offered
Josh Augusta should probably be on the list. We're in great position with him and he's definitely a four-star talent. Josh's recruitment has been slowly picking up and he currently holds offers from ND and Oklahoma. He would be a great addition to our class.
My thoughts:
- Poggi - 70%
- LaCouture - 20%
- Treadwell - 55%
- Isaac - 80%
- Levenberry - 51%
- Cravens - 20%
- Fuller - 4% (three of his brothers went to VT)
- Poggi - 80%
- LaCouture - 30%
- Treadwell - 50 %
- Isaac - 75%
- Levenberry - 50 %
- Cravens - 20 %
- Fuller - 5 %
- Massington - 60 %
I'm no expert, but that would be my best guess. I'll say we end up with Poggi, Isaac, Levenberry, Massington, and one other.
Poggi: 70%
LaCouture: 30%
Treadwell: 20%
Isaac: 70%
Levenberry: 35%
Cravens: 20%
Fuller: 5%
Very interesting that you put Treadwell and Cravens at the same likelihood. You're less optimistic on Treadwell and more optimistic on Cravens than anyone else.
My guess - Shane Morris meets some big-ish time receiver at a camp over the summer and convinces him to join the fold. With a pitch like: "5 star QB, best OL in the country, solid running game, favorable WR depth chart, killer defense" I have to imagine some top WR will jump on board. Even if you didn't care about the Michigan name, the Big House, the history, the academics - that would be tough to pass up.
Magnus, just wondering why so little confidence in treadwell?
April 17th, 2012 at 10:53 AM ^
The longer kids hold off on committing to their "leader," the more it seems that other programs have a chance to overtake the lead. We're in practically the same boat with Treadwell as we were with Jordan Diamond, and we all know how that turned out.
sorry double post
If we were to get everyone on that list, I think it's fairly safe to say we'd have one of (if not THE) greatest recruiting classes of all time. We'd have five(!!!) guys in the current Rivals Top 20 (Morris, Isaac, Fuller, Cravens and Levenberry), one or two more five stars, a ton of four stars and a couple three stars. It would be absolutely ridiculous.
I think we will definitely take a NT, a 3-tech, and 2 more WR. I don't know what their names will be though.
their parents named them some 17 or 18 years ago, when they were little bitty babies.
I was just saying earlier to keep an eye on Josh Augusta. He was bumped in the rankings on 247 to #195 nationally in today's update that was released an hour ago. Scout has him as a TE, so pay no attention to their ranking right now. Rivals has him as a high three-star and I would expect a bump to four-star status down the road. Some may favor him over LaCouture and even Teller at SDE.
My completely uninformed, semi-baseless guess is that we get Poggi, Isaac, and 1-2 more out of the rest of those (Levenberry and/or Treadwell?). The rest of our ~4 scholies going to people we haven't heard much/anything about yet.
I don't have percentages,but from who you have named I think we get Poggi, Isaac, Treadwell, and Levenberry. Tremendous's interview with Kenton Gibbs is interesting since Gibbs says Michigan wouldn't be his outright leader even with an offer, but I still think he becomes the NT in this class.
April 16th, 2012 at 10:19 PM ^
Poggi 75%. Isaac 75 %. Levenberry 65% before the end of august, 35% after. Treadwell, Allen and Massington 33%. Cravens and Fuller 10 %.