Best guess: OSU Sanctions
I know of everything that is going on with OSU, but what is going to come out of this? I live in Omaha, and some family members of mine think that the cars and tatgate will be considered as seperate violations, Most of us know that the death penalty will never be used again, I've also heard that they could go with no schollies for a certain amount of time, this being the worst case scenario. So, what is everyones opinion on what is going to happen?
Best guess: something far less than deserve will happen.
Result: nothing will change.
This strikes me as one of those cases where there is obvious wrong-doing, but the NCAA is (or will be) complicit in the "crime", because no one really wants to know what's behind Door #3. In my cynical view of the NCAA, that's why the Notice of Allegations didn't go any further than the specific issues and circumstances that had already come to light in the press.
Sure, the whole issue of the cars looks bad, but if the NCAA really wanted to dig deep, they'd have done it when Clarett went public with his story. For that matter, they could have done it during the Youngstown State days of Jim Tressel. Or even when debating the whole issue of whether the 2010 team, in its entirety, should be allowed to play in the Sugar Bowl. They've treated each incident with tOSU as separate issues, as though their investigating committees are latter day J. Edgar Hoovers*. Unless something comes to light in The Dispatch, don't hold your breath waiting for justice to be served.
Fundamentally, I don't think that the NCAA wants to find tOSU guilty of anything more than a few silly misunderstandings. As such, they'll put together a package of punishments that will allow the entire college athletics community (and particularly tOSU football program and Athletic Department) to maintain the appearance of integrity without requiring anyone (save, perhaps, Tressel himself) to become a sacrificial lamb. They'll do so, safe in the knowledge that by the time the discussion turns to BCS rankings, the issue of Tressel, cars, trinkets and bowl game tickets will be a footnote to the season.
*Hoover denied the existence of La Cosa Nostra and the Mafia until it became so clear to everyone, (but after several decades) that even he couldn't bury his head in the sand any longer without looking like the world's biggest tool.
I read an article on ESPN yesterday. The President of the NCAA has only been in his position for a year, but states the NCAA will be coming down on Rule Violators. With that said, I would not be surprised if the NCAA impososes harsh sanctions on TSIO. Will they get the death penalty? Probably not, however, any pentalies they do receive should and most likely will be more severe that what M received. I will be surprised if they skate through the years of violations and not receive something at least a reduction of 5 schollies a year for at 3 years, no bowl appearances for at least 3 years, and as someone has already said the dismissal of The Vest.
Cam Newton
Sugar Bowl
In my mind, those two opportunities were golden for the new NCAA President to show his meddle. He wiffed on both. So, while he's saying all the right words, it's his actions that hold the most interest for me. So far, he's gone 0-fer.
The death penalty will absolutely not be used (and should not be used) in this case, nor will they drop OSU's scholarships down to zero. Realistically, something on the order of what USC got hit with, in addition to firing Tressel, is probably the worst that OSU is looking at.
EDIT: Agree with posters below, vacating last year's wins.
Death penalty will not be used in this case, although I wouldn't mind it if it was.
Last year vacated, 2 year bowl bown, lose 5ish scholarships for the next 2 years, and essentially forcing OSU to fire Tressel is my guess.
I want to see them punished appropriately, but I've noticed a lot of desire on this board for the worst penalties possible. Some sanctions (scholarship losses, bowl ban, Tressel fire) are beneficial to Michigan in the short term, but long term it's still best for both programs to have each other as major rivals. A punishment that fundamentally changes OSU football forever would be bad for Michigan, too. I love the rivalry and would hate to see it damaged to that extent.
There isn't anything on the table that would actually cripple OSU. The death penalty can't be brought around for this and there's no way the NCAA would strip 85 scholarships. Other than that, what would cripple a big program like Ohio?
Even the Death Penalty wouldn't cripple Ohio State. People forget that there were a lot of other factors that led to SMU falling off the cliff, even after they returned from the death penalty. SMU basically made a commitment to run things the right way and be an academics first athletic program, which returned them to their historical norm (basically Duke). Then the SWC fell apart. If Ohio State was to receive the same penalty (they won't), they'll still have the resources and determination to return to an elite level.
It would probably knock them out of title contention for a number of years as well as greatly reduce their prestige. They'd be back eventually, but they wouldn't be playing in the BCS for a long time, IMO.
The same thing would probably be true of any sever punishment. Alabama was down for a while after they were close to the death penalty. The Death Penalty probably extends it for a year or two.
My only point was that an SMU style fall into the abyss isn't likely for any of the major Big State U. football powers. I also think the NCAA knows this, and they wouldn't be hesitant to give the penalty if it was truly warranted. It just hasn't been warrented in a long time. I believe the SMU sanctions truly "scared straight" a bunch of people ending the wild west era of ncaa infranctions (at least outside of Auburn).
Oh I'm not disagreeing. SMU also fell because...well...they're SMU. It would be akin to NU or Vandy shooting up to Rose/Sugar Bowl's every year and then getting punished severely. It just reverted SMU back to where it actually fell on the pecking order, compared to the place they cheated to get to.
Really, it's been over twenty years since it has been a "major rivalry" on the field. Michigan dominated for thirteen years and TSIO for the next ten. I don't think it would hurt Michigan a bit if TSIO got severely punished. As long as "the game" gets on national TV every year, Michigan will benefit from TSIO getting hammered.
As for the "death penalty," it would never happen to a cash cow like TSIO. They are a powerful school in a powerful conference. The SMU's of the world get the death penalty; the TSIO's, Alabamas, and USC's get probation.
Back to the rivalry, it will always be a big rivalry off the field no matter how TSIO is punished. And while it is a very sporting gesture to hope for the rivalry to be even, I hope Michgan beats TSIO every year for as long as football is played.
Certainly, we don't want OSU crippled, but if they have been cheating during this recent period of dominance,* then a just penalty will handicap them appropriately. The timing is perfect for our good buddy Brady Hoke, and for the resurgence of our beloved Wolverines.**
*actually, there is no "if" since JT has admitted to lying, which in this case is cheating.
** Briante Dunn would be a nice, juicy contribution to our cause.
"Death penalty will not be used in this case, although I wouldn't mind it if it was."
You fricking idiot... what kind of "Michigan Man" are you? Obviously you are a Wal Mart fan, and have no perspective here. The death penalty to OSU would kill a part of us.. the greatness of Michigan is no where near as great as without OSU, which is the greatest rivalry in all of sports. If there was the death penalty, then there would no longer be that rivarly, would there? OSU, for a lack of a better term, is the yin to our yang, is our bizarro world twin, that is, if there was no morality in bizarro world.
But to want them gone? What you should WANT is that they beat every team they play, until we play, them.....and over and over, year-in, year-out. Unless you want to be a Sparty mentality and want your rival to lose over and over.
You fricking idiot... what kind of "Michigan Man" are you? Obviously you are a Wal Mart fan, and have no perspective here.
The rest of your post was good (though pretty harshly worded for an internet opinion disagreement); you made a couple good points. However, this...not at all. And you bashed Sparty mentality while using their meme, congrats.
You were far too nice....that post wasn't good. It is an opinion that people will just skip right past because it is presented so poorly. Because I want OSU to lose all of their games, I must not be as big of a fan as asshole poster on the MGoBoard? With all due respect, and I do mean with all due respect, he can go fuck himself. Wanting OSU to lose every one of their games isn't Sparty-esque unless I want OSU to lose and I don't really care if Michigan wins. Wanting OSU to lose every game is completely fine if I also want Michigan to win every game. That is kind of what a rivalry is about....why would I want OSU to win?
You can wish whatever you want on OSU, I don't think it's Sparty-esq to wish doom on them. I agree that it only hits Sparty levels when you want OSU to lose even if their loss hurts M (how Sparty rooted for OSU to beat us this year, I will never understand). I thought it would be more beneficial to address the "Wal Mart" part of his comment than to debate what he thinks about the rivalry. Like you said, that's just me.
"Michigan Man" has a lot of interpretations, but I think we can all agree a true Michigan Man would not refer to a fellow fan as a walmart fan.
If they vacate the wins, what happens to the swag they got celebrating their status as Big Ten Champions? Do those gold panties go through the shredder? Will they sell tickets to watch that process? Does anyone want to carpool to that event?
More seriously....Since I assume they're not going to sweep people's houses and demand the stuff back, this raises a new question: Do those traded-for-tats rings suddenly become more valuable, or less?
"for the good of the institution that he so loves." You can see that being teed up in comments from guys like Spielman already. 2010 regular season wins vacated. Big Ten title vacated. That seems like the minimum. Hopefully, a few scholarships get axed also. Much more than that would really surprise me, based on what's out there now.
This is probably my guess as well. Unless something major comes out that we dont already know, I expect this to happen.
if they investigate the car sales, two or three years probation, one or two year bowl ban, 10 to 20 scholarhsips over the probationary period, show cause order for Tressel.
If they stick with just Tatgate, it will be a show cause order for Tressel and one or two years probation, no scholarships or bowl ban.
Is there a statute of limitations when it comes to violations? I'm wodering how far back the NCAA is willing to go when it comes to the car sales issue.
OSU should be held responsible only for the transgressions seen under the watch of their AD or head coach. I wouldn't want to see Gene Smith get penalized for oversights that occurred under the previous AD's watch (such as a lack of institutional control), and don't think they should look to dig things up prior to JT taking on the HC position. Of course, and however unfortunate, the next head coach will have to pay the price for Tressel's mistakes, hopefully in the form of lost scholarships and bowl bans.
1 year show cause on tressel; vacating last year; 1 year bowl ban.
No schollies? Come on, man. Where did you "hear" that? To go "no schollies" for even one season would destroy a program of OSU's magnitude. 85 members of the football team would have to drop out of school for a year. That's not going to happen under any circumstances.
these 'sker fans aren't the smartest of people. lol.
Perhaps he meant "no scholarships for 1 year's recruiting class" as in, 0 scholarships for the 2012 class or something. This is still ridiculously unrealistic, but not as bad as revoking scholarships from players already in school with them.
I think he meant no new scholarships for one or two years. Even that would be excessive. The NCAA wouldn't screw the current players by revoking their scholarships.
It's not like they committed a crime like supposedly, maybe, perhaps going over the allotted practice hour times according to a local tabloid disguised as a newspaper or anything. That would be a serious offense.
Also, their coach is a moral christian man....he wears a sweater vest for god's sake....He would never do unethical things at OSU or Youngstown.
If he had a Mexican last name and a southern twang then we should be suspicious, but they should be cleared of all charges IMO.....
Good, solid, clean program with a vanilla coach.
past. If tatgate goes back a few years and they find car deasl from boosters I think they get hammered. Vacate the last 3 years,3 year bowl ban,loss of 30 scholarships over 3 years and Tressel is fired. Don't forget Matta may be getting dragged into this also.
TV ban
hells no. even we don't want that.
I don't think that's in the NCAA playbook anymore. It hurts the opponents of the team being punished as well, which is no good for TV partners. Back when the TV ban was common, the NCAA was either limiting number of appearances on TV for any school or there simply was only so much airtime dedicated to college football. You could dictate to a school that they wouldn't be on TV when they're playing the offending school without decreasing the number of TV appearances on the season.
Wouldn't a TV ban be just as bad/worse for each of OSU's opponents? I couldn't imagine not being able to watch The Game. Ridiculous to not have game televised.
If the NCAA determines OSU's conduct is worthy of a post-season ban, I would anticipate more than a 12 scholarship reduction over three years.
If the NCAA determines OSU's conduct warrants only a 12 scholarship reduction over three years, I can't imagine a post-season ban in play.
I could see them doing five for four years with a one or two year ban. That would just be to pay for the five players messing up.
They like to double the punishment FWIW. Like we had to give up twice the practice hours that we illegally used.
they lose some schollies, vacate last year, and are banned from some bowls. Ohio is a big, poor state with lots of hungry kids and pride, however. I see this as a bit of daylight for Michigan at an opportune time, a good break for Hoke and Brandon, not a whole lot more.
Edit: Further serious disclosures, however. . .
Clubber Lang predicts,"PAIN!"
If the car issues are true and they've been going on for years, why would they only vacate wins from last season? Giving cars to athletes is a pretty enticing way to gain commitments from top notch high school athletes. We all know this corruption has been going on at osu for quite some time now.
If I were handing out the punishments, I would vacate wins from any year this behavior was going on. Either that or take away scholarships for how ever many years they were caught cheating for. I guess that's wishful thinking.
I believe cargate ends up killing OSU wayyyyyyy more than tatgate. I think they will dig up shit from 2002. Now I dont think much will be done past last year,but there is a chance(tho very,very tiny one) that a lot of games may be vacated.
Twenty scholarships over four years (five per year), probation, 2010 vacated, show-cause for Tressel, two year bowl-ban.
That honestly seems fair.
How does that seem fair? Around 10 years of not playing by the rules and all you get is a 2 year bowl ban and loss of 5 scholarships a year? If these kids are already getting cars, who's to say that OSU will change their ways and stop recruiting kids with money and cars? That punishment would not change a thing. There are ways around a "loss of scholarships."
Because this is about Tressel and tatgate. When actual facts come out about cargate, then feel free to vacate another decade and bomb them to the stone age for that.
Until we know what went on with cars, let's stick with what we do know (and can actually prove).
I will agree with you there. My suspicions are and always have been there but I have no proof to support my feeling. If (and when) cargate is proven, I will heavily support harsh punishment. If they are not severely punished, the NCAA is yet again showing that cheating is worth it in college sports.
10+ years of cheating = 10+ winning seasons, a national title, and five bowl wins. (a bowl appearance in each year of his coaching)
Punishment = loss of 20 scholarships over 4 years, probation, and 2 year bowl ban
10+ years of cheating > Punishment
The punishment needs to be more negative for the program than the positives during the cheating. This will never happen to a cash cow like osu. This is, however, the only way the NCAA can turn programs off to cheating.
When it comes to OSU I channel my Republican father and favor capitol punishment.