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Date Title Body
06/12/2018 - 12:37pm My orders are to attach…

My orders are to attack Toledo but thats not an option for me... now what? 

03/07/2018 - 2:53pm No Argument
No argument there but Michigan's posted futures odds at the beginning of the tournament certainly had those outcomes baked in. Anyone outside MSU and Purdue would be expected to have to defeat them both for the futures bet to pay out. The only way Michigan +700 to win the BTT presents value is if both MSU and Purdue *both* suffer stunning upsets. Not a favorable gambling thesis there. In fact, Michgan's 4 games were all chalk matchups...+1500-ish was truly the actual fair value futures line for Michigan to win the 2018 BTT.
 
The excersize also holds for MSU (the BTT favorite). They were +250 at the start of the tournament implying a 40% chance of winning their 3 games. We know that wer favored by 12 pts vs Wisconsin and 5 pts vs Michigan, so the implied line (from +250 futurues bet) vs their presumed opponent in the final (Purdue) was MSU by 3.  MSU was favored over Purdue by 3 at Breslin earlier in the year, expecting them to be favored by the same amount at a Neutral site requires...creative thinking. So taking MSU @ 250 to win the tournament required the expectation that the gap between the two teams had grown by a lot since their previous meeting OR that Purdue would not make it to the final.
 
Maybe Purdue's +275 to win presented value after Rutgers won two games but, again, betting on that to happen a priori would have been a sucker's bet.
 
TLDR: after you really tease it all out, ML roller is definitely the sharpest way to play tournament futures. AND you preserve the right to halt the roll if something you dont like (an injury for example) happens.
03/06/2018 - 7:15pm Rumor* has it

Rumor* has it that this is the sharpest way to run** a futures bet (I.e: moneyline rollover) because the final payout is much much better than the a priori line.

*its not a rumor. Michigan was +700 to win the BTT; ML roller would have paid around +1500

**if one were so inclined

11/28/2017 - 1:54pm So, you'd rather the OP
So, you'd rather the OP cherry pick data, ignore all context about how incredibly close most of those games were, and craft a monologue that you prefer. Is that it?

Your opinion doesn't bother me, but accusing someone of going out of their way to craft a narrative then turning around and doing the exact same thing you're accusing them of is pretty awesome. Well done!

11/28/2017 - 1:38pm Regarding Dantonio's Luck

If you listen to Bill Connelly's podcast-- PAPN: Podcast Aint Played Nobody, and you should--you'll hear him talk about the mechanics of S&P quite a bit. In a nutshell, the 'P' in S&P relates to explosivity and that sheds a ton of light on MSU's relatively low S&P numbers. MSU's style of defense is awesome in success rate (the 'S' in S&P) but is liable to give up big plays (just like Don Brown). So, State's defensive explosivity tends to be fine but not awesome. Same goes for their offense, they're not a big play offense. Remember the 5 hour drive to close out the B1G Championship game against Iowa 2 years ago? So their S&P rating is lower than their record suggests because S&P rewards domination; that's not MSU's game.

Those qualities also lend themselves to tighter MOVs. A one score lead is usually enough for their defense while their offense holds the ball and grinds the clock. Dantonio's record in tight games isn't luck, that's just his plan.

Having said that, "Trouble with the snap" was straght up bullshit, and Urban Meyer taking the ball out of Ezekiell Elliot's hands later that year, and the B1G West Champion being less than tested every year... those are the ways Dantonio has gotten pretty lucky. Oh yeah, and he faced our back up QB and got a boatload of turnover help this year... I could keep going. Sigh...

Anyway, Good Diary!

11/10/2017 - 12:37am roger

PFF is the only outet I know of that tries to grade every player on every play like UFR does. That said, I think UFR is on a different level of detail. Even Guru Conelly only assesses 1-5 players per play (ball handlers and tacklers).

It'd be dope if we could get UFR coverage for every B1G team. I'd be willing to grade a B1G team if it meant we'd get the whole conference graded evey week.

10/27/2017 - 2:54pm I take no responsibility for

I take no responsibility for things said in Ivan Drago mode.

10/27/2017 - 1:49pm Bang the book
I'm in Ivan Drago mode here... there are no feelings in vegas.
 
Michigan -23 vs. Rutgers: I'd fade the points here. I'm seeing M laying as many as 24... that's a lot for a bad offense to lay. Plus its a rivalry game and we know how crazy those can get. Peters shows up after Michigan gets up big and Rutgers closes the gap, M wins but doesn't cover. Gimme Rutgers +24. 
 
Northwestern +1 vs. MSU: Give me MSU -1. Northwestern's wins have come agaist teams that are nowhere near as good as MSU. This is a pick the winner line... Victory for MSU!
 
Ohio State -7 vs. Penn State: Honestly, dont see much value on either side here. My lean is Ohio State -7, but this is a pass for me. I'd start *thinking* about it at OSU -4 or PSU +10. Lots of X factors to mix in here...
 
Purdue -6 vs. Nebraska: This one is also a bit thin value wise for me, but I think Purdue -6 is the play. We all know how the ole dead man walking vibe plays out.
 
Iowa -9 vs Minnesota: Line currently sits at Iowa -7 and that's my play for sure. The boat ain't gon' row itself and Fleck has a few empty oars right now.
 
WVU +6 vs OKST: Line currently sits at OKST -7 which is still a bit thin, I'd hit -6 for sure so -7 is a good decision point. OKST has been messing around recently so I'm not super excited to back them, bit Ivan Drago doesnt get excited. Roll OKST -7.
 
Florida +14 vs. Georgia: UGA -14 all day. Destruction, Terror, and mayhem... Dogs are going to bomb Gainsville, local residents should evatuate the area.
 
Notre Dame - 7 vs NC State: NC State is another team I think is in for a rude awakening. They've been nice but its about to get real for them starting this week. I hate Bryan Kelly but ND is legit. Books are currently requiring the hook on top of the 7 and I'm good with that. Gimme ND -7'.
 
Arizona -2' vs WAZZU: Another "pick the winner" game. I think it's WAZZU. Cougs already choked @ Cal so I expect them to handle their business here. WAZZU - 2'.
 
If they miss... they miss. /Drago
10/16/2017 - 10:55am Shout out to Electric Relaxation

love that song

10/07/2017 - 7:20pm Heard beadle didn't dress at

Heard beadle didn't dress at guard for msu. Replacement is a freshman. Mo gon' ea today!

09/28/2017 - 10:08am Appreciate the follow up and

Appreciate the follow up and its cool to see that the data backs up the claim. I look forward to future entries.

09/27/2017 - 4:33pm Amazing
 
I see. Why think when we can just beleive whatever we want, is that it? 
 
The interpretation of the data in the article is incomplete and I offered a simple and readily available tool to improve the analysis. My hope is that the OP doesn't share your wanton ignorance and flippant wrongness.
 
Enjoy bliss.
09/27/2017 - 3:08pm Yes, I noticed that

Yes, I noticed that about the standard deviations, but the coclusion being drawn should still be validated. The reason the standard deviation recedes could be -- and likely is -- because the spread in each day is smaller due to the fact that with fewer samples you are less likely to see extreme data points, hence the diminshing standard deviations... In order to actually conclude "yes, these variances are indeed different" you should run the F-test. I'm not making this up, I swear. This is the very reason the test was invented by people smarter than us.

It's an analytical diary series, the data is available, and the anlysis is simple... so,what's the problem?

09/27/2017 - 1:33pm Bingo

Targeting and Late Hit are two different things. Sometimes they occur together, sometimes they dont. This was undoubtedly targeting, and it does look like it was intentional to me.

Brohm is in a tough spot because he should try to back his player but this statement all but condones the approach. Basically "its only drty if you get caught." That's a bad look on him. Maybe somehting like "it was a bang-bang play and I dont think our guys were trying to hurt Speight. We hope he makes a speedy recovery." Boom we better IMO

09/27/2017 - 1:21pm Hot Take Dissipation Decay

I think the Hot Take Dissipation Decay theory is a reasonable hypothesis, but you could just be seeing a low sample size thing... I bet you get fewer and fewer responses as time goes by which means you're less likely to see data at the tails of the disribution (i.e fewer Hot/Cold Takes).

Luckily, there's a way to control for this statistically: it's called the Test for Equality of Two Variances (aka: F-Test). The Excel Data Analysis Tool Pak Add In includes this analysis (see link below). If the P-value you end up with is less than the alpha value you specify (usually 0.05 for 95% confidence), then you can reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternate hypothesis. In this case, the null hypothesis is that the variances are equal and that there is no such thing as Hot Take Dissipation. The alternate hypothesis is that the theory is real.

Beware that failure to reject the null does not mean disproval of the alternate, merely that there is insufficient evidence to make the claim. Basically you may just need more data. The smaller the difference you're trying to detect, the more data you need to reject the null. 

Cool diary project!

http://www.excel-easy.com/examples/f-test.html

09/07/2017 - 3:10pm 65% DSR is Fine

65% DSR is Fine particularly against what should be a pretty good (or at least decent) Florida defense. As has been stated several times, he was a bad tip (first INT) and a bad throw (overthrown check) from having an awesome game.

All is well.

08/09/2017 - 7:49am Excellent Points

Excellent points but we need to be very careful with small sample passer rating as it is very volatile. The leverage the specific result of a pass attempt has on the final rating for a game can be shockingly big. Example, flipping a TD pass over to an incompletion hits the rating formula on three front: completion pct, yards per attempt, and TD rate; this could easily affect that games assessment by 15 points or more.

Also, passer rating doesn't just evaluate the perfomrance of QB. The OL and Receivers also hit play into the number in huge ways. This is really where DSR and PFF blow passer rating out of the water IMO. Recall how FSU destoryed our OL in the bowl game. Its not all on Speight.

It's important to zoom out a little when using passer rating. If we isolate on opponents with Passing Defense S&P+ values well over average--UCF, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, FSU--OAPR ends up with 1 great, 3 OK, and 2 terrible games. You've already hit on the potential effect of injury in the two 'terribles'. Thats not that bad to me; I'd expect to see the same type of pattern with any non-elite QB.

If Peters does win the job, then his talent must be enough to overcome not just his own inexperience, but that of the players around him, too. He must also overcome Speights own year over year improvement. It can happen, sure; I'm just not taking that bet. Harbaugh will make the right call.

Thanks for comment.

03/28/2017 - 10:51pm Good Sh!t, Jed

Great diary

10/26/2016 - 12:35am I demand this tee shirt

"I aint talkin facts, I'm talkin gettin lucky. #mgoblog" 

Take my money.

Can we at least get an off season tag line out of this?

09/02/2016 - 5:02pm Michigan QB

for continuity's sake I feel compelled to put a number on my prediction. I'm going 140 based on the outside weapons, respectable running game, and playcalling.

 

Go Blue!

09/02/2016 - 5:00pm MURDA!

murda was the case that they gave me #snoopdogg

09/02/2016 - 12:06am I wish I could upvote this

I wish I could upvote this twice. Good luck.

08/29/2016 - 12:16pm Rain down on me sweet, sweet

Rain down on me sweet, sweet koolaid!

08/05/2016 - 8:53pm Fuck Cancer

EOM

05/11/2016 - 2:59pm Jay Harbaugh's Diary

Can we make this a thing? That's good stuff right there

05/02/2016 - 2:31pm Another Jourdan Lewis?

Yes, please. 

01/22/2016 - 8:48pm that;s actually a shot of

that;s actually a shot of gin, man. Which begs the question: just, how effed up *are* you?

01/22/2016 - 7:57pm Dirty Martini

Beefeater cuz its an actual legit London Dry. Wanna spend more? Fine. But, why would you do that? It's London Dry Gin, fella; don't get cute. Side note: Vodka is for pussies.

Vermouth: I actually am not a hater but mind your proportions, homie 'cause....yeah, it can make the deal go south and quick. I certainly don't think ZERO is the answer. Folks say zero 'cause they're afraid of getting in wrong. In other words, they're pussies.

Olives: Gimme big mofos. Like, real big. And a lot of them. Say, *at least* equal parts by weight solids to liquid. 16 ounce mininmum, please. Anythiing less is for pussies.

Stuff In the Olives: the only acceptable stuff is blue cheese 'cause we're Michigan fans aint we?  But, try to stuff an olive and you'll quickly find that to be some high effort isht, bruh. You'll get the same effect by keeping some blue cheese crumbles dry and near by. In summary, stuffing those little effers is too much maintencance, so screw all that. And you know what being high maintenance is for...that's right, pussies.

How dirty?: Filthy, man. Obviously. Dont be a pussy.

Shaken or Stirred?: I hesitate to legitimize the question. Let's just say James Bond is a pussy.

 

Dont mess this up, fellas. Its acutally pretty simple.

Salud!

12/15/2015 - 1:01pm What if Leavitt does get hired?

I guess I understand the concerns many are expressing over the circumstances of Leavitt's termination at USF. What I dont understand is the certainty with which those positions are held. The people who will make the hiring decision will have much more information than we regarding what actually happened and we have no reason to question their judgement.

Spinning it forward, if Leavitt does become DC and he does as good a job as Harbaugh expects, would all the people turrning their nose up at Leavitt now do the same then? I doubt it.

08/27/2015 - 12:15pm hallelujah!

It has begun!!!

08/26/2015 - 12:59pm slippery slope

Many valid points on both sides have been raised but my intial reaction is that I dont like this. Does the U report all violations of the law to the parents? I dont know but I dont think so. regadless, why stop here? Why not keep parents appraised of the student's academic standing...etc. Basically, I'm concerned about the slippery slope.

08/25/2015 - 7:02pm Word

I understand what you're saying but I don't think we're on the same page as to what my intentions are. My goal isn't to go out on a limb, it's to be accurate while also being plausible. I want to categorize guys into expected tiers based on what I think history has shown given what I think I know about the player today. I dont want to bag these guys I just want to size up their skill and their context. Indeed, I'm generally expecting guys to be better than they were last year because that what I think happens when a player gets more experience and development time. Its cool that you disagree and I'd like to hear more about why that is.

Known Knowns:
  1. Skill == starting experience + recruiting profile + previous perfomace
  2. Support == surrounding talent + experience (RBs, WRs, OL)
  3. System == offensive scheme + regime tenure
  4. Schedule == expected quality of defenses that will be faced 
Known Unknowns: Future events
 
Unknown Unknowns: I don't know
 
The Tiers:
  1. Work In Progress: 130 and under; historically roughly 60% of QBs with at leat 100 attempts
  2.  Solid QB: 135; 10%
  3. Good QB: 140; 10%
  4. Great QB: 145+; 20%
 
Predicting worse than 130 is just mean and that's not a goal of mine. A perfomrance at or below level requires an unskilled player or a lot of bad things to stack on each other. Either way I dont expect the guy to be a significant threat. I simply reference those things in the thesis about my expectation. Likewise predicting over 145 takes a really good situation. Precision beyond this is just asking to be wrong.
 
Adjacent tiers overlap which I think makes sense. Can we REALLY tell the difference between 136 and 139? Probably not. 136 vs 141? I think so.
 
Hope this helps you understand what I think this this is and what it isnt. Thanks for reading and for the feedback.
 
Where do you think these guys will end up?
08/25/2015 - 12:20am Good stuff

Bill Connolly at Football Studyhall has a good metric for rating RBs. I believe Green beat out Drake in that metric with Smith hanging out near average territory. Ty Isaac's lay available rating (2013) is the best of all.

Sounds like it's a dogfight in camp so we should have good depth.

08/23/2015 - 3:11pm Welp, that's embarrassing

I should have just gone with a picture of Harbaugh. I'm'a just leave so as to remind myself:  when in doubt, Harbaugh.

10/23/2014 - 12:17pm I don't expect it to happen either but

MSU have up 14 to EMU and Wyoming. Purdue scored 31. Maybe State tris a little harder to shut us out or whatever but that defense gives up plays. It's all on Devin.

Cooks efficiency against not Jacksonville state, EMU, and Wyoming is also not that spectacular.

Our guys have a non zero chance.

10/01/2014 - 4:31pm Thunder and Blazes

aka Entry of the Gladiators. It's the "Adults" not the "Kids"

09/30/2014 - 2:49pm Yep

Also: Thunder and Blazes

09/30/2014 - 2:42pm Gary Nova

"I think their quarterback is a very, very good football player. "

Surely, he can't be talking about Gary "These Throws Aint Loyal" Nova. Someone please confirm.

09/25/2014 - 4:17pm Fred Jackson

So, our RBs dont understand the plays they're running and stuggle in pass protection. What is it that Fred does again?

09/25/2014 - 8:20am Identity

The Ivy league shools chose their identity and Michigan chose to make a competitive football program part if its own identity a *long* time ago. That  was a deliberate choice, not an accident. Sure, we can always change it but I like the identity we have and see nothing problematic about keeping it. What reason is there to shy away from high level competition other than "because it's hard"?

We're approaching 150 years and suddenly we're just going to bury that? Cant be serious...

 

 

09/23/2014 - 2:02pm bull[ogna]

If Hoke moves Devin to the receiving corps I will lose what little respect for him I have left. Devin has done more for him than anyone else on the team:

  1. two position switches
  2. carries the cross of 9-effin-8
  3. sacrificed his body behind a poorly developed O Line
  4. tried to develop his passing skills despite lacking a actual positon coach
  5. learning a different scheme with new responsibilities....again

Yeah, Devin is struggling but god dammit he's earned the right to end his career on his own terms as the quarterback of this team.

Hoke moving him would be a slap in the face. "Well, Devin, thanks for everything but you just dont have it, kid. We're giving up on you." Morris has shown NOTHING that indicates he would provide an upgrade in performance at the position. Meanwhile everyone else is supposed to beleive they still have a shot at the POS B1G Title.What kind of message would that send to the rest of the team?

 

09/23/2014 - 12:46pm outstanding

Love the presentation of the context behind the Brown Jug story. Back when I was pumping out diaries like a madman,I ran across an article from the Harvard Crimson circa 1950 and it stopped me dead in my tracks. It prompted one of the diaries I'm most proud of Old Blue: the New Crimson.

I think Michigan can be the white knight but first "we" (those with influence) need to understand what Michigan is, what it isnt, and what we want it to be. Acknowledgement of the problem in the first step towards adressing it.

Lets go, Blue.

09/23/2014 - 10:46am Is It?

I know what you mean and I agree from a long term perspective. However in the short term, the 2010 squad did not get *dominated* by mediocre teams like this team has so far this year. The defense was putrid but at least the team had a chance to win games against teams that were on their level (Iowa and Penn State). Against the good teams (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State) yeah it got ugly...do you personally expect a different experience this year? I can't at this point. I'll hope my ass off but that hasn’t been working, Holmes. The saying goes that offense wins games but defense wins championships…we need to win some daggum games, G.

The fact that Brady has assembled high level talent and we're getting embarrassed anyway is a liability rather than an asset at this point. The "youth" line bought him a fourth year, he's out of sand. We should be better than this.

Also, one thing Brady has enjoyed that RichRod didn’t was $1.5M to spend on coordinators. History would be very different if RR had been afforded that same support. Regardless, he failed and was rightfully ejected. But, let’s not act like the program isn’t on fire. If you prefer the hue of these flames over the hue of those, then that’s your prerogative. As for me, I’m sick of melting.

09/22/2014 - 10:34am I love Devin but he looks

I love Devin but he looks really bad right now. Maybe there's too much thinking going on up there, too afraid to make a mistake. Hell, I dont know. He seems really hesitant to throw at times and I personally wish he'd scramble more often. 

I certainly hope he gets back on his game because it would suck to see him go out like this.

09/18/2014 - 9:24am yes

There are also a surprising number of inconsistencies when cross referencing to other PBP repositories. Nothing that's a show stopper but gotta be careful.

09/18/2014 - 12:10am Unfortunately cfbstats is no

Unfortunately cfbstats is no longer free. Packages start at $750/year.Historic data costs $1500. I'd be willing to pay for what my man was doing but that is just too steep. I has sad.

Seth was saying that mgoblog had a project going where the the free service cfbstats was providing would reside here. Not sure where that stands though.

[EDIT: here's a USAToday story to what happened to cfbstats. Basically these guys were doing similar things and BIG TIMERS (coaching staffs, etc) were subsribing to their stuff. That data is being provided to the CFB Playoff Selection Committee. So, the gobbled up cfbstats and now they're charging for it. I'd love to be part of an open source project to develop a free parser in python or something. Whatever man, this sucks.]

09/17/2014 - 11:31am Great Diary

An unfortunate but necessary topic of discussion. Nice Job. Appreciate the link to your data as well. Some things I would like to investigate (or see investigated by someone else):

  • I'd like to see if there's a link between about "roster integrity" and "turnaround time". If I recall correcty Saban had a pretty nice roster waiting for him at Bama and he did well pretty quickly. Michigan has a ready made roster for quick takeoff, IMO.
  • What about doing the Bill O'Brien / Pete Carol thing and bringing in a career NFL guy as a replacement? If Mike Tomlin somehow becomes available I would do just about anything to get him. He'd be so awesome I wouldnt even know where to start quaching my excitement.  I'd put him up there with Harbaugh in terms of attactive options for Michigan to consider. I also wonder how a guy like Jim Swartz or Josh McDaniels would do as a College Head Coach.  Greg Roman would also get a look from me. Jack Del Rio? Schiano? Cut me some slack here, they cant all be gems.
  • Also, what about sniping a guy from another bigger school and let them sweat all this stuff out? I know its a cliche thing for fans to do but Michigan's pockets run deep, yo. I'd holler at Jim Mora and Kyle Whittingham for sure. Guys like that.

 

09/10/2014 - 5:53pm 12 yard run you say?

Hmmm, where have I heard that before...

/self high five
/totally useless commentary

09/04/2014 - 9:48am Awesome

I wish I had something else to add but like besides football and math, cooking is right up there with stuff I like to do/learn about. Keep it coming.

08/28/2014 - 11:39am Good Post

I would add that this approach will not work under all circumstances nor for all coaches. I think it can only work somewhere where expectations and short term goals are low. It took Dantonio three years to get MSU where they are now. He was the benefactor of huge good fortune in that his cheif rival (Michigan) took a major turn down at the very begginning of his tenure and he could buy time by beating us in 2008 and 2009 while his program took hold. The rest is history. 

low expectations + good coach +good apporach + good luck ... some of those factors are more controllable than others.