Line v PSU jumped to UM by 12; news?

Submitted by RJWolvie on November 2nd, 2018 at 12:13 PM

Just noticed the line on PSU game tomorrow jumped from UM by 10.5 to UM by 12. Was there injury news or any news anyone knows of? I couldn’t find some, but would love to know (even) more reason for optimism...


Big Boutros

November 2nd, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^

PSU practice has been surprisingly leaky -- their 247 site posted some really detailed notes yesterday, including a reveal of a secret defensive package for Micah Parsons. I was shocked that Franklin would allow it.

Anyway I would bet McSorley has looked gimpy and/or other contributors have been sitting out, and the news has made its way to Vegas.


November 2nd, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^

Not much of a gambler but isnt this something that happens sometimes close to games when a lot of money came in for 1 team?

Like Vegas is trying to bring in some last minute money on PSU.


November 2nd, 2018 at 5:13 PM ^

Dennisblundon is correct about there being sharp action on Nebraska early in the week.    and someone that has listened to numerous sports gambling podcasts during work, I can tell you Nebraska has been a very Sharp bet team in recent weeks but it hasn't worked out for the sharps for the most part.  


November 2nd, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^

This, in my opinion, is likely the reason why the line has jumped.

Put it like this: At -10.5 Michigan had ~70% of the money on them and rising. With all of that cash on Michigan if the line ends at -10.5 and PSU covers Vegas banks big. If the betting trend continued toward Michigan at that number (it was) and the line had stayed at -10.5 that's basically Vegas saying, go ahead. Keep betting Michigan. We're confident in a PSU cover - confident enough that even big bets (to a degree) on Michigan won't sway the line.

After looking at how the number has moved around this week, to me, it's a sign that Vegas - as OP said - is trying to get some money in on Penn State to hedge all of the Michigan money at -10.5. Which is a good sign for Michigan fans and Michigan bettors at -10.5. However, there's still plenty of time left to place bets and most bets come in late. If that line comes back down tomorrow it could mean Vegas is confident in a PSU cover - they're just baiting Michigan bettors with the inflated line tonight ("oh shoot! I should've gotten in on Michigan when it was -10.5! I'll bet this if it comes back down..."). Notice how it got us talking.

IIRC PSU was getting all of the action when the line opened at +10. That obviously changed... It doesn't sound like anyone has heard any "news;" my best guess is the word really starting to spread about the "Revenge Tour" factor - Meaning, Harbaugh and Co. aren't going to show any mercy in a double digit victory.

I only play for fun in a league with my friends, but the "Revenge Tour" factor is what swayed me to take Michigan at -10.5.


November 2nd, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^

12.5 now.  For non gamblers it may not mean much, but this is pretty significant.   The only logical reason is Mcsorley is not playing right now, but who knows.


November 2nd, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^

probably Vegas trying to even out the money distribution. Vegas isn’t predicting a Michigan win. They are attempting to spread the money 50/50 between Michigan and PSU 


November 2nd, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^

Moneyflow and The Limit Lift could explain this.

The topic of the Michigan line came up on the board earlier this week and the general commentary was similar: the 10 pt line seemed high but was necessary to keep the book balanced. Yes, this is day 1 of Sports Wagering 101. However, books also control bet limits and early in the week the limits are way lower than they are later in the week in order to manage risk while the market is resolves.

The book not only sees where the money goes but also where it comes from. This is probably a situation where there was a clear sharp-square split in the action early in the week. Bet limits go up, big money comes in (on Michigan in this case) and new PSU money comes in to meet it. The risk skew ultimately evens out but only because there was a lot of square money on one side to begin with.

This may be a case where the line was kept off of the final balance point in order to trap an imbalance in square PSU money before the limits were increased.

The book definitely knows how to recognize and exploit advantageous situations, believe that.

Surveillance Doe

November 2nd, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^

Someone always provides this comment in these threads. "Vegas" doesn't mean a group of guys on the strip for a bachelor party for the weekend or some schmucks in town for a conference. This is serious money, and these lines are based on way more information than anyone here might have. Vegas has to beat the people who do this for a living.

Ever play in one of those ESPN pick'em games with friends, family, coworkers, etc? Want to win it every year? Pick the Vegas favorites, and use the lines to determine your confidence rankings. Congratulations, you are now the winner.

Yes, Vegas is trying to get even money, but they do that by being very, very good at setting these lines. 



November 2nd, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^

Sparty was the home team, had gone to PSU and come out with a win, and has a very good defense. 

Purdue destroyed OSU, but one game does not a season make. Purdue was obviously due for an emotional letdown the week after the biggest upset in all those players’ lives. People who are able to look past the most recent results and see the big picture were only too happy to bet on Sparty.