Recruiting is becoming a national game. At first glance this would seem to really benefit UM. MI is not ID from a talent standpoint but it is also not FL, OH, TX or CA. Also, UM has the resources to have endless jet trips to visit prospects and secure their commitment…
However, with the recent departure of A. Solomon it got me thinking. Is there an opportunity cost to signing recruits farther away? Would UM be better off taking a slightly less rated local recruit knowing you are more likely to get his premium years after development?
For the purpose of this exercise I will be looking at transfer rates of recruits greater than and less than 300 miles. 300 is completely arbitrary and if I had more time I could input the data into excel and make it so you could change the distance. My thought is that at 300 miles you can get home on the weekend if you need without flying. 300 miles is a 5 hours’ish car trip.
Total Recruits Transfers % Transfer % of Total Transfers
<300 >300 <300 >300 <300 >300 <300 >300
2015 9 6 3 1 33 16 75 25
2016 7 19 0 4 0 21 0 100
2017 12 18 3 4 25 22 42.8 57.2
Total 28 43 6 9 21 20.9 40 60
Obviously, this isn’t a large enough sample size to be significant but it appears that a recruit from greater than 300 miles is no more likely to transfer than one less than 300 miles. The next step would be to break it down even further to see if there was a distance which rates did increase.
I started with JH’s recruiting classes because a lot of guys transfer with new coaches. Also, I didn’t include grad transfers or cases that were generally accepted to be disciplinary. Lastly, obviously, all transfers aren’t home sick related and players transfer for numerous reasons, but I was bored.
I am sure I missed a transfer somewhere and I would say to point them out but I cannot edit this regardless haha