October 28th, 2018 at 7:04 PM ^

It seems high, yes. Probably based off of the D's performance against two fairly weak offenses. I say Wisco is weak because they are not good passing the ball. 


They make these spreads so that money will go both sides of the game. If it opened at 7 it would go up to 10 quick with all the money going Michigans way. 

This time of year I dont care honestly, win by 1. Just win.

Goggles Paisano

October 28th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^

They are going to have a hard time moving the ball, just like everyone else and they just played a very physical game.  I expect them to come in a bit dinged.  And who knows about McSorely's knee.  Once you get thru the game it could be one of those things that swells a bit and keeps him a notch or two below his normal speed.  They are a good team but not a great team.  And their coaching...  I think the line is right to get even action on both sides.  

I just hope we can continue with that salty physical football after the bye and come out and grind just like they have the last few weeks.  If we can do that we will be fine.  


October 28th, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^

PSU has a weak defense.  Iowa missed several opportunities to win the game and Iowa isn't as good as their record.  Michigan's offense is more efficient (edit- than PSU’s offense) although less flashy or at least less high scoring against opponents with less talent.  I wish I was more bold on the prediction.  It is just that karma thing.  I don't want to get too excited.


October 28th, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^

Per S&P+, PSU's offense and defense are about equally meh. They're slightly ahead of us on O, but way behind with D, obviously. They're still top 10, and if I read S&P correctly, we're about 6 points better on a neutral field. I think we win by 2 scores with home field advantage and Franklin dumbassery, but I think the line is slightly aggressive.


October 28th, 2018 at 5:32 PM ^

The key unit vs. unit matchup in this one is our run offense vs. their run defense. As of last week (they're down now, getting updated) our rushing offense was 12th in S&P and their rushing defense was in the 50s. It's a huge mismatch.

From a raw stats perspective, they're 9th in the Big Ten in rush yards allowed per game (about 161/game). 

We should be able to lean on them, keep McSorley off the field, and Don Brown will smother him with fresh legs when he's out there. Not the mismatch you want going on the road in the Big Ten in November.