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Date Title Body
12/04/2018 - 7:06pm Lincoln Riley’s offenses at…

Lincoln Riley’s offenses at East Carolina weren’t really that good; I think their highest offense I’ve S&P+ finish was mid twenties while he was there and mostly in the 40-70 range. They scored points but against who?

To me an important distinction between Riley and Day is that Riley was around the program he took over much longer than Day was. Riley was QB coach for both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and was there to recruit them. As an aside, Dabo Swinney had a similar profile to Riley in that he was on Bowdens staff for a while and had established himself as a fantastic recruiter at Clemson before ascending to head coach. By comparison, Ryan Day has accomplished very little in his own right than either of those two.

Maybe he “works out” for OSU but that doesn’t mean he’ll a good as Urban Meyer or even Jim Tressel. Brian Kelley worked out for Notre Dame; will Ohio State accept that level of success? That’s a significant step down from where they’ve been for almost 20 years... we’ll see.

12/04/2018 - 11:46am Um... thats exactly what…

Um... thats exactly what Oklahoma is now except with way better players than Texas Tech ever had.

12/04/2018 - 9:47am Having 2 Heisman level…

Having 2 Heisman level players in your cupboard is a helluva way to start a career. Kevin Sumlin looked pretty good when he had one of those... 

And Dabo was already established as an *elite* recruiter when he ascended to the job. Tommy Bowden era Clemson was a mediocre program...Dabo made that thing what it is. Waaaaay different situation than taking over  2019 Ohio State or 2017 Oklahoma.

11/27/2018 - 10:04am Yeah, that’s the same…

Yeah, that’s the same question but flipped to the offensive side. Despite our glaring issues schematically, we scored 39 with a dropped td and two failed 2pt conversions that should have been plenty to be honest. 

HOWEVA it became clear that we would need much more offense once the defense was sca-rewed. Bush went out what, 5 minutes into the third? Then the blocked punt td happened soon after.  That’s when (at the absolute latest) we needed to find an extra gear on offense and we have the players to do it as evidenced by our two minute drill at the end of the first half.

Brohm, Frost, and Canada all kept their teams in the game with superior offensive game plans and less talent than what is available at Michigan and with much worse defenses. Offense and defense are not mutually exclusive, you’re allowed to be awesome at both.

 

11/27/2018 - 8:58am I think the comments above…

I think the comments above are reasonable and fair but it’s not like Urban Myer and Co had some epiphany going into this game... how in the hell was MSU able to slow these guys down? They were way more successful against Ohio state than we were defensively.

Seems like we have better talent our deficiencies notwithstanding... what am I missing?

11/14/2018 - 3:32pm I go the other way, actually…

I go the other way, actually. I think it exposes and quantifies the hidden BS within of the playoff committee process. Its obvious that the committee is giving certain teams more credit than they've earned for reasons that are not communicated to us simpletons. Bias is bias whether there's an agenda or not.

I like this approach is because of how transparent it is. Yes, there's a huge systemic biases at play (examples: beating Rutgers is the same as beating Fresno State, beating Utah State is less valuable than beating Minnesota) but this bias is obviously an accurate reflection of what the committee and vast majority of people think anyway.

Let's play out the season the way that is broadly expected: the SEC championship game precipitates 1 of 2 possible out comes with the rest of the top 5 winning out:

  • Clemson finishes with 26.5 pts.
  • Michigan finishes with 26.
  • Notre Dame finishes at 23.
  • Alabama finishes at either 27 pts if they win in the SEC title or 20 if they lose.
  • Georgia finishes with 24 pts if the beat Alabama would see them finish with 24 pts.


There's absolutely no way to rank Alabama ahead of Michigan (or Notre Dame for that matter) without them winning the SEC championship or gifting them 6.5 points... thats almost 35% boost. Hogwash, I say; the greatest team in the history of the universe should be able to either get in without such shenanigans or handle a more difficult schedule.

We have to value being undefeated at 4 points in order to vault Notre Dame ahead of Michigan, which I actually find palatable given how hard it is to do that. Knock off point for only playing 12 games instead of 13 like real teams and add a half point as a head-to-head tie breaker and the world suddenly makes sense again.

TLDR...this is good shit.

11/13/2018 - 5:44pm This is cool and the…

This is cool and the simplicity of the system fascinates me.

What program/method are you using to iterate the ranking?

11/08/2018 - 11:55am Dominant is a bit much. They…

Dominant is a bit much. They're good, probably about as good as Iowa/Mississippi State but not quite Michigan State/Kentucky. ND's best defensive game of the season came against us and the mitigating circumstances there have been covered.

Losing Book brings their offense down to average and as discussed, their defense is solid but not DOMINANT.

11/02/2018 - 7:07pm betting limits increase…

betting limits increase later in the week

11/02/2018 - 1:39pm Moneyflow and The Limit Lift…

Moneyflow and The Limit Lift could explain this.

The topic of the Michigan line came up on the board earlier this week and the general commentary was similar: the 10 pt line seemed high but was necessary to keep the book balanced. Yes, this is day 1 of Sports Wagering 101. However, books also control bet limits and early in the week the limits are way lower than they are later in the week in order to manage risk while the market is resolves.

The book not only sees where the money goes but also where it comes from. This is probably a situation where there was a clear sharp-square split in the action early in the week. Bet limits go up, big money comes in (on Michigan in this case) and new PSU money comes in to meet it. The risk skew ultimately evens out but only because there was a lot of square money on one side to begin with.

This may be a case where the line was kept off of the final balance point in order to trap an imbalance in square PSU money before the limits were increased.

The book definitely knows how to recognize and exploit advantageous situations, believe that.

10/28/2018 - 6:49pm Sometimes the book is…

Sometimes the book is willing to take exposure on one side vs the other. Maybe bookie thinks M smashes them but knows the market won’t make them lay the correct number off pts.  I wouldn’t be surprise to see Penn state catch some steam here, in which case there will be a lot of dead PSU money trapped at 11... Michigan or nothing on this one.

10/19/2018 - 7:08pm Good shit jedd dot gif

Good shit jedd dot gif

10/19/2018 - 6:57pm Amen and LFG.

 

In summary…

Amen and LFG.

In summary, Go Blue!

10/08/2018 - 9:45pm Damn. Your contributions to…

Damn. Your contributions to the blog have been and will be missed. Whenever I write a diary I strive to mimic the voice that the blog staff has forged over the years and you are one of the pillars upon which that standard rises. We look forward to seeing you resume the mantle of Michigan excellence in your next endeavor.

Godspeed and Go Blue

08/31/2018 - 12:50pm Yoikes. It wasn't a…

Yoikes. It wasn't a committee of one, guy.

08/31/2018 - 12:38pm I heard something to that…

I heard something to that effect too. The report I heard was that Urban Myer's agent told him two women were on their over and they needed his phone for about four hours. So, that statement might very well be true. If someone else does the dirty work then you're clean, right??

08/31/2018 - 12:25pm oh yeah, its totally working…

oh yeah, its totally working for him too!

08/31/2018 - 12:22pm My beef is that he points to…

My beef is that he points to the report basically saying that since the investigators decided to believed him so must everyone else.

A thousand thanks for the input but, go fuck yourself Urban!

08/22/2018 - 4:16pm re: Dodd article...

Feels…

re: Dodd article...

Feels like it’s well past high time for Delany to get off his ass about all of this BS that's happening all across the conference. No, the scandals aren't his fault but he sure as hell can do more than nothing about it. Title IX is tied to federal funding, Title B1G could be tied to dat BTN teat. Bring some proposals to the university presidents and make them go on record in either support or opposition:

  • minimum facility standards (ex: air conditioning, onsite medical equipment, etc.)
  • med staff representatives paid by and reporting to the office of the commissioner
  • league wide standardized concussion protocols
  • player ineligibility while criminal investigations are active (see Grant Perry)

I'm just riffing here and maybe not all of these ideas are winners but it's more than has come out of Delany's office (afaik). The member institutions of the Big Ten have shown that they suck at policing themselves appropriately more often than not. Delany is in unique position to put pressure on the conference members to get their priorities straight.

08/19/2018 - 10:23pm And the point goes to…

And the point goes to FLwolvfan22...

I was also unaware that death through football was something that happened this frequently.

06/12/2018 - 12:37pm My orders are to attach…

My orders are to attack Toledo but thats not an option for me... now what? 

03/07/2018 - 2:53pm No Argument
No argument there but Michigan's posted futures odds at the beginning of the tournament certainly had those outcomes baked in. Anyone outside MSU and Purdue would be expected to have to defeat them both for the futures bet to pay out. The only way Michigan +700 to win the BTT presents value is if both MSU and Purdue *both* suffer stunning upsets. Not a favorable gambling thesis there. In fact, Michgan's 4 games were all chalk matchups...+1500-ish was truly the actual fair value futures line for Michigan to win the 2018 BTT.
 
The excersize also holds for MSU (the BTT favorite). They were +250 at the start of the tournament implying a 40% chance of winning their 3 games. We know that wer favored by 12 pts vs Wisconsin and 5 pts vs Michigan, so the implied line (from +250 futurues bet) vs their presumed opponent in the final (Purdue) was MSU by 3.  MSU was favored over Purdue by 3 at Breslin earlier in the year, expecting them to be favored by the same amount at a Neutral site requires...creative thinking. So taking MSU @ 250 to win the tournament required the expectation that the gap between the two teams had grown by a lot since their previous meeting OR that Purdue would not make it to the final.
 
Maybe Purdue's +275 to win presented value after Rutgers won two games but, again, betting on that to happen a priori would have been a sucker's bet.
 
TLDR: after you really tease it all out, ML roller is definitely the sharpest way to play tournament futures. AND you preserve the right to halt the roll if something you dont like (an injury for example) happens.
03/06/2018 - 7:15pm Rumor* has it

Rumor* has it that this is the sharpest way to run** a futures bet (I.e: moneyline rollover) because the final payout is much much better than the a priori line.

*its not a rumor. Michigan was +700 to win the BTT; ML roller would have paid around +1500

**if one were so inclined

11/28/2017 - 1:54pm So, you'd rather the OP
So, you'd rather the OP cherry pick data, ignore all context about how incredibly close most of those games were, and craft a monologue that you prefer. Is that it?

Your opinion doesn't bother me, but accusing someone of going out of their way to craft a narrative then turning around and doing the exact same thing you're accusing them of is pretty awesome. Well done!

11/28/2017 - 1:38pm Regarding Dantonio's Luck

If you listen to Bill Connelly's podcast-- PAPN: Podcast Aint Played Nobody, and you should--you'll hear him talk about the mechanics of S&P quite a bit. In a nutshell, the 'P' in S&P relates to explosivity and that sheds a ton of light on MSU's relatively low S&P numbers. MSU's style of defense is awesome in success rate (the 'S' in S&P) but is liable to give up big plays (just like Don Brown). So, State's defensive explosivity tends to be fine but not awesome. Same goes for their offense, they're not a big play offense. Remember the 5 hour drive to close out the B1G Championship game against Iowa 2 years ago? So their S&P rating is lower than their record suggests because S&P rewards domination; that's not MSU's game.

Those qualities also lend themselves to tighter MOVs. A one score lead is usually enough for their defense while their offense holds the ball and grinds the clock. Dantonio's record in tight games isn't luck, that's just his plan.

Having said that, "Trouble with the snap" was straght up bullshit, and Urban Meyer taking the ball out of Ezekiell Elliot's hands later that year, and the B1G West Champion being less than tested every year... those are the ways Dantonio has gotten pretty lucky. Oh yeah, and he faced our back up QB and got a boatload of turnover help this year... I could keep going. Sigh...

Anyway, Good Diary!

11/10/2017 - 12:37am roger

PFF is the only outet I know of that tries to grade every player on every play like UFR does. That said, I think UFR is on a different level of detail. Even Guru Conelly only assesses 1-5 players per play (ball handlers and tacklers).

It'd be dope if we could get UFR coverage for every B1G team. I'd be willing to grade a B1G team if it meant we'd get the whole conference graded evey week.

10/27/2017 - 2:54pm I take no responsibility for

I take no responsibility for things said in Ivan Drago mode.

10/27/2017 - 1:49pm Bang the book
I'm in Ivan Drago mode here... there are no feelings in vegas.
 
Michigan -23 vs. Rutgers: I'd fade the points here. I'm seeing M laying as many as 24... that's a lot for a bad offense to lay. Plus its a rivalry game and we know how crazy those can get. Peters shows up after Michigan gets up big and Rutgers closes the gap, M wins but doesn't cover. Gimme Rutgers +24. 
 
Northwestern +1 vs. MSU: Give me MSU -1. Northwestern's wins have come agaist teams that are nowhere near as good as MSU. This is a pick the winner line... Victory for MSU!
 
Ohio State -7 vs. Penn State: Honestly, dont see much value on either side here. My lean is Ohio State -7, but this is a pass for me. I'd start *thinking* about it at OSU -4 or PSU +10. Lots of X factors to mix in here...
 
Purdue -6 vs. Nebraska: This one is also a bit thin value wise for me, but I think Purdue -6 is the play. We all know how the ole dead man walking vibe plays out.
 
Iowa -9 vs Minnesota: Line currently sits at Iowa -7 and that's my play for sure. The boat ain't gon' row itself and Fleck has a few empty oars right now.
 
WVU +6 vs OKST: Line currently sits at OKST -7 which is still a bit thin, I'd hit -6 for sure so -7 is a good decision point. OKST has been messing around recently so I'm not super excited to back them, bit Ivan Drago doesnt get excited. Roll OKST -7.
 
Florida +14 vs. Georgia: UGA -14 all day. Destruction, Terror, and mayhem... Dogs are going to bomb Gainsville, local residents should evatuate the area.
 
Notre Dame - 7 vs NC State: NC State is another team I think is in for a rude awakening. They've been nice but its about to get real for them starting this week. I hate Bryan Kelly but ND is legit. Books are currently requiring the hook on top of the 7 and I'm good with that. Gimme ND -7'.
 
Arizona -2' vs WAZZU: Another "pick the winner" game. I think it's WAZZU. Cougs already choked @ Cal so I expect them to handle their business here. WAZZU - 2'.
 
If they miss... they miss. /Drago
10/16/2017 - 10:55am Shout out to Electric Relaxation

love that song

10/07/2017 - 7:20pm Heard beadle didn't dress at

Heard beadle didn't dress at guard for msu. Replacement is a freshman. Mo gon' ea today!

09/28/2017 - 10:08am Appreciate the follow up and

Appreciate the follow up and its cool to see that the data backs up the claim. I look forward to future entries.

09/27/2017 - 4:33pm Amazing
 
I see. Why think when we can just beleive whatever we want, is that it? 
 
The interpretation of the data in the article is incomplete and I offered a simple and readily available tool to improve the analysis. My hope is that the OP doesn't share your wanton ignorance and flippant wrongness.
 
Enjoy bliss.
09/27/2017 - 3:08pm Yes, I noticed that

Yes, I noticed that about the standard deviations, but the coclusion being drawn should still be validated. The reason the standard deviation recedes could be -- and likely is -- because the spread in each day is smaller due to the fact that with fewer samples you are less likely to see extreme data points, hence the diminshing standard deviations... In order to actually conclude "yes, these variances are indeed different" you should run the F-test. I'm not making this up, I swear. This is the very reason the test was invented by people smarter than us.

It's an analytical diary series, the data is available, and the anlysis is simple... so,what's the problem?

09/27/2017 - 1:33pm Bingo

Targeting and Late Hit are two different things. Sometimes they occur together, sometimes they dont. This was undoubtedly targeting, and it does look like it was intentional to me.

Brohm is in a tough spot because he should try to back his player but this statement all but condones the approach. Basically "its only drty if you get caught." That's a bad look on him. Maybe somehting like "it was a bang-bang play and I dont think our guys were trying to hurt Speight. We hope he makes a speedy recovery." Boom we better IMO

09/27/2017 - 1:21pm Hot Take Dissipation Decay

I think the Hot Take Dissipation Decay theory is a reasonable hypothesis, but you could just be seeing a low sample size thing... I bet you get fewer and fewer responses as time goes by which means you're less likely to see data at the tails of the disribution (i.e fewer Hot/Cold Takes).

Luckily, there's a way to control for this statistically: it's called the Test for Equality of Two Variances (aka: F-Test). The Excel Data Analysis Tool Pak Add In includes this analysis (see link below). If the P-value you end up with is less than the alpha value you specify (usually 0.05 for 95% confidence), then you can reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternate hypothesis. In this case, the null hypothesis is that the variances are equal and that there is no such thing as Hot Take Dissipation. The alternate hypothesis is that the theory is real.

Beware that failure to reject the null does not mean disproval of the alternate, merely that there is insufficient evidence to make the claim. Basically you may just need more data. The smaller the difference you're trying to detect, the more data you need to reject the null. 

Cool diary project!

http://www.excel-easy.com/examples/f-test.html

09/07/2017 - 3:10pm 65% DSR is Fine

65% DSR is Fine particularly against what should be a pretty good (or at least decent) Florida defense. As has been stated several times, he was a bad tip (first INT) and a bad throw (overthrown check) from having an awesome game.

All is well.

08/09/2017 - 7:49am Excellent Points

Excellent points but we need to be very careful with small sample passer rating as it is very volatile. The leverage the specific result of a pass attempt has on the final rating for a game can be shockingly big. Example, flipping a TD pass over to an incompletion hits the rating formula on three front: completion pct, yards per attempt, and TD rate; this could easily affect that games assessment by 15 points or more.

Also, passer rating doesn't just evaluate the perfomrance of QB. The OL and Receivers also hit play into the number in huge ways. This is really where DSR and PFF blow passer rating out of the water IMO. Recall how FSU destoryed our OL in the bowl game. Its not all on Speight.

It's important to zoom out a little when using passer rating. If we isolate on opponents with Passing Defense S&P+ values well over average--UCF, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, FSU--OAPR ends up with 1 great, 3 OK, and 2 terrible games. You've already hit on the potential effect of injury in the two 'terribles'. Thats not that bad to me; I'd expect to see the same type of pattern with any non-elite QB.

If Peters does win the job, then his talent must be enough to overcome not just his own inexperience, but that of the players around him, too. He must also overcome Speights own year over year improvement. It can happen, sure; I'm just not taking that bet. Harbaugh will make the right call.

Thanks for comment.

03/28/2017 - 10:51pm Good Sh!t, Jed

Great diary

10/26/2016 - 12:35am I demand this tee shirt

"I aint talkin facts, I'm talkin gettin lucky. #mgoblog" 

Take my money.

Can we at least get an off season tag line out of this?

09/02/2016 - 5:02pm Michigan QB

for continuity's sake I feel compelled to put a number on my prediction. I'm going 140 based on the outside weapons, respectable running game, and playcalling.

 

Go Blue!

09/02/2016 - 5:00pm MURDA!

murda was the case that they gave me #snoopdogg

09/02/2016 - 12:06am I wish I could upvote this

I wish I could upvote this twice. Good luck.

08/29/2016 - 12:16pm Rain down on me sweet, sweet

Rain down on me sweet, sweet koolaid!

08/05/2016 - 8:53pm Fuck Cancer

EOM

05/11/2016 - 2:59pm Jay Harbaugh's Diary

Can we make this a thing? That's good stuff right there

05/02/2016 - 2:31pm Another Jourdan Lewis?

Yes, please. 

01/22/2016 - 8:48pm that;s actually a shot of

that;s actually a shot of gin, man. Which begs the question: just, how effed up *are* you?

01/22/2016 - 7:57pm Dirty Martini

Beefeater cuz its an actual legit London Dry. Wanna spend more? Fine. But, why would you do that? It's London Dry Gin, fella; don't get cute. Side note: Vodka is for pussies.

Vermouth: I actually am not a hater but mind your proportions, homie 'cause....yeah, it can make the deal go south and quick. I certainly don't think ZERO is the answer. Folks say zero 'cause they're afraid of getting in wrong. In other words, they're pussies.

Olives: Gimme big mofos. Like, real big. And a lot of them. Say, *at least* equal parts by weight solids to liquid. 16 ounce mininmum, please. Anythiing less is for pussies.

Stuff In the Olives: the only acceptable stuff is blue cheese 'cause we're Michigan fans aint we?  But, try to stuff an olive and you'll quickly find that to be some high effort isht, bruh. You'll get the same effect by keeping some blue cheese crumbles dry and near by. In summary, stuffing those little effers is too much maintencance, so screw all that. And you know what being high maintenance is for...that's right, pussies.

How dirty?: Filthy, man. Obviously. Dont be a pussy.

Shaken or Stirred?: I hesitate to legitimize the question. Let's just say James Bond is a pussy.

 

Dont mess this up, fellas. Its acutally pretty simple.

Salud!

12/15/2015 - 1:01pm What if Leavitt does get hired?

I guess I understand the concerns many are expressing over the circumstances of Leavitt's termination at USF. What I dont understand is the certainty with which those positions are held. The people who will make the hiring decision will have much more information than we regarding what actually happened and we have no reason to question their judgement.

Spinning it forward, if Leavitt does become DC and he does as good a job as Harbaugh expects, would all the people turrning their nose up at Leavitt now do the same then? I doubt it.

08/27/2015 - 12:15pm hallelujah!

It has begun!!!