Your projected michigan basketball 2011-2012 lineup
I know Brian already touched on this a bit in one of his recent posts, but I think this deserves its own thread with the buzz around the program. I have to be honest if Burndidge or Burke can play, I see us having a very solid 8 to 9 man rotation. I'm curious to see (if Smot countinues to develop) whether we go to a lineup with a bit more size or stick with the four guard lineup. My guess is we stay with the small lineup because I can't see either Douglass or Novak not starting as seniors.
Here's my guess:
PG: Morris/Burke/Douglass
SG:Douglass/Burndidge/Vogrich
SF:Hardaway/Vogrich/Novak
PF:Novak/Smot/Christian or Mclimans
C:Morgan/Smot/Horford
Just a couple of my thoughts about next season:
1. I think we need one of the backup PFs or Cs step up and become a defensive specialist. My guess is that Colton Christian can be that guy. We saw him be that guy (albeit for a short period of time) against Tennessee.
2. If Burke isn't ready to play right away, then I would have Douglass as the backup point guard with Brundidge playing 15-20 minutes a night. No reason to have Morris play 38 minutes a night again.
3. If Horford steps we are going to have a hard time getting everybody the minutes they deserve (not that this would be a bad problem). At that point I couldn't see us keeping Novak at the 4 which could create a logjam at 1,2,3.
3. I wouldn't be surprised if somehow Eso Akunne found a way to play 5 minutes a night.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:06 PM ^
Brundidge or Burke will come in and start at the SG spot IMO. Morgan, Smot, Horford, Need to bulk up and we could be a really good bball team.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:10 PM ^
It's not going to happen, but I would like Douglass to be relegated to the bench and turned into a sub at either guard position.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:28 PM ^
Douglas is our best defender - something that often goes unnoticed.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:35 PM ^
True, but he's a big liability athletically and on the offensive end. Defensive prowess often improves with age, so if a guy like Hardaway can turn into a solid defender, then that would be swell.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:38 PM ^
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:17 AM ^
How's that? They asked the Duke PG on Mike & Mike this morning how come Michigan was so hard to defend and he said because they play basically 4 guards. Sure, size hurt them in some respects but it also forced teams to play small against them.
The main thing that held them back was lack of experience. As Hardaway and Morgan grew more comfortable and Smotrycz starting playing the 5, they improved. Whatever lineup JB settles on is fine by me but I don't think that necessarily means a conventional lineup.
There's also a reason why most of the past NCAA tourney champs have size on their starting roster and not mostly guards.
...and there's a reason that Villanova is "pretty good" every year, but not "really good."
March 22nd, 2011 at 11:55 AM ^
Its the fact that the power forward played by Novak can shoot threes. If Smotryz can pick up his defense enough to play the 4 and Horford can be a reliable backup for Morgan, Novak then still plays some 4 but also moves over to take some of the guard and small forward minutes.
March 22nd, 2011 at 10:32 AM ^
Pretty hard to be a liability athletically and be the best defender at the guard spot. Kind of a contradiction.
Stu averaged 7 ppg and shot 36% from 3 last year. Not exactly setting the world on fire, but certainly not a "huge offensive liability" either. Defenses have to account for him when he's on the floor.
March 22nd, 2011 at 10:07 AM ^
If defenses have to account for Douglass they do a pretty good job of it because most games you barely notice he is on the floor, except for his turnovers. Also, he might be one of the best defenders this past year on a team full of freshman, but that should change next year. I see him as a bit role player next year with Burke helping out with the ballhandling and subbing for Morris.
I would bet you any amount of money in the world that, whether you like it or not, he'll be more than just a "bit role player" next year.
Belien has said Stu's one of the best athletes on the team. 6'2' and throwing down 2 handed dunks is not what poor athletes do. Stu also best perimeter defender on team, much of which comes from being able to move his feet well.
Another example of Stu's athleticism; I think it was the Duke game but maybe Tennessee, where Stu out ran a couple of guards for a loose ball, took a couple dribbles with guards unsuccesfully chasing him and layed in a contested layup. Helluva athletic play. Go Stu!
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:34 AM ^
I'm not sure Douglass is a safe bet to start next season. He came off the bench for the first 24 games of this season. It was only when Smotrycz hit the freshman wall (and hard at that) that Stu entered the lineup. If Smotyrcz can put on some muscle and develop his game over the summer, he could reclaim his old job. Beilein would ideally like someone his size at the 4. The other variable is whether Morris and Hardaway can improve enough defensively to check the opponent's top guard.
It might happen sooner than you think. I wouldn't be surprised at all if JB decided to go with a lineup similar to the one we saw at the beginning of last season, with Morgan, Smot, and Hardaway in the front court, Morris and Novak in the back, and Stu as the 6th man.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:10 PM ^
Too early to speculate. Lot can happen and Burke and Brundidge are gonna have to fight their way into the lineup. If I could I would neg you for adding the "Akunne may get 5 minutes" line. Not gonna happen.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:20 PM ^
cool when people neg other people just because they disagree...
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:35 AM ^
then again it's not gonna happen.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:14 PM ^
Where's Dumars?
March 21st, 2011 at 11:23 PM ^
with Jordan Morgan, actually.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:57 PM ^
unless it's a blowout. he's a walk-on albiet a transfer from USF.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:15 PM ^
At this point I might put Vogrich ahead of Brundridge because we have not seem him play. Vogrich used to scare me because he was a defensive liability, but I think he improved drastically this year. It is safe to say that at this point Vogrich is a better shooter than Brundridge, but I think CB is the better driver.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:15 PM ^
Both of those players are better than Douglass already. JB will have them ready.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:20 PM ^
I just doubt that a senior captain SG is going to be sent to the bench for either of those freshmen.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:23 PM ^
Didn't they say that when the Fab Five came to town?
March 21st, 2011 at 11:28 PM ^
Yeah, but that's why the Fab Five thing was so wild - because the freshmen actually took over. The Fab Five is not the norm. That was 20 years ago.
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:03 AM ^
....Burke or Brundidge are the #1 (Webber), #4 (Juwan), or #9 (Jalen) overall player in the nation.
Stu is a returning starter on a 2nd round tourney team. The guys the Fab Five replaced lost in the first round...of the NIT.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:24 PM ^
The dude just needs to develop consistency. Maybe he'll make that senior year jump. Here and there, we've seen him put up some killer moves.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:38 PM ^
I mean, I certainly hope he improves. But improvement from junior to senior year doesn't seem to be as big as from freshman to sophomore year. When they're juniors, I think most kids are who they are.
Stu is a guy that can certainly frustrate us. I think he will likely start next year and just end up with a reduced role. It took Hardaway a while this year to become the contributor that he ended up being, and I think he was a fairly precocious freshman. Darius Morris the year before ended up playing 23 minutes a game and couldn't score worth a lick. Smotrycz obviously had his growing pains. So, maybe Burke and Brundidge come in and play so well that they cut into Stu's minutes immediately, but I doubt it. You put Stu in a role with less pressure, and I think he will be just fine. I just don't feel comfortable depending on him 35 minutes a game to play lockdown D AND reliably knock down 3s, I just dont' think he's good enough for that.
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:05 AM ^
but they dont' know the system as well as Douglass. JB's system is very complicated that it takes half a year or a year to full get the system. For some player, it's 2 years.
Darius Morris didn't get the system in his freshman year and he got better because he knows the system a lot better. I'm hoping that Burke and Brundidge can pick up the system pretty quickly or they won't see time on the court as much as most people wanted them to have.
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:26 AM ^
It should be easier for them since JB finally has a few classes of his guys who have grown up on his system. It wasn't like that for Stu and Zack and really Darius either. They didn't have a group of upperclassman to help teach and lead. I agree with you though on the time it takes to learn the system and Stu's advantages. Still he might end up coming off the bench as the backup PG because of his command of the offense.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:27 PM ^
whatever the lineup is, it will most likely change
Belein proved that he knows what to do adjusts wise as a season goes on. Next year will be very interesting to see what he does. We still have a long way to go to be a chalk for sweet 16 next year
March 21st, 2011 at 11:30 PM ^
It's easy to follow your logic. I can't recall a returning co-captain being relegated to the bench, although Mark Hughes was named a team captain but never actually was a full time starter.
It's obvious we need another big on the floor, even if it's only to allow us to play a low-high post, and Smot definitely would be able to pull a defender away from the defensive boards due to the fact they have to respect his outside shot.
I'm certain Beilien will do some alternating in the preseason, if for no other reason than to have measurables in terms of comparisons. Going forward, i think Evan has already proven he's more vital to the team's success right now than is Stu, with the only question mark being team chemistry. We've al learned how important this is, and I can't recall quickly a M bb team w/better chemistry than this team developed over the course of the season.
When one looks at the team, it's seems almost transparent that a athletic, rebounding big to complement Jordan could propel this team to another level. However, and this is mere reiteration on the above point, it would have to be someone of the caliber of a Morris, Hardaway, etc., someone w/excellent skills but with a total understanding of his role in the overall plan that Coach B. has instilled so well this year.
Future looks bright to this fan. As Brian pointed so well, there are no moral victories for us at this point, and imo OSU was the only opponent that proved they were truly superior to the point we just couldn't beat them without playing our perfect game over the course of the past three to four weeks.
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:59 AM ^
Being a team captain doesn't guarantee playing time. Freddie Hunter was the captain of the '92 team and rode the pine. But we should be clear here: the Douglass debate is not about him playing or not playing, but about him starting or being the 6th man. Either way he will be on the floor a fair amount.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:31 PM ^
The season lasts 4 months and 30 games. It will evolve and change based on matchups, conditioning, performance and, god forbid injury. UM was fairly fortunate this season with injuries. Good news is there should be 10 guys ready to play in march.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:32 PM ^
1. Douglass isn't going anywhere. He played 75% of the minutes this season and will probably stay above 70% next year. He's the best on-the-ball defender, allowing Morris to get rest on D. Douglass also shoots 36% from 3, and I think that number will rise again next year when he again improves shot selection.
2. Novak will primarily stay at the 4. His big advantage is ability to stretch the defensive with a big man guarding him. He creates a lot of the lanes for Morris. He's actually quite a good defensive rebounder (better than Jordan Morgan statistically).
3. I like Trey Burke, but I think he'll only get less than 10 minutes/game. I think his biggest problem will be on defense.
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:09 AM ^
Douglass could very well be going somewhere. Dude's a shooter who can't shoot. That's never good.
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:38 AM ^
Stu shot the 3 better than Nolan Smith this year
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:42 AM ^
You can espouse your opinion of his skills all you want, but it's not going to change the fact that he'll get tons of minutes in Beilein's system. Maybe not 30+ minutes per game as in the past two years but still a lot.
36% really isn't bad. Plus, his percentage made a pretty big jump between his Sophomore and Junior year so maybe next season he can make another one. He hot some big shots this year (the last second 3 in East Lansing to ice that game comes to mind), had some pretty big games (like his 19 points off the bench against Harvard - we don't win that game without him), and is the team's best perimeter defender. He's not going anywhere.
If Douglass is going to log as many minutes as you say I do not see that as a good thing for the team. This year he might have been the best on the ball defender, that does not mean next he is going to be and others will not step up their defense. Douglass is the logical canidate to take a huge hit in minutes. He will not be the only ball handler besiders Morris. Also, he is almost invisible offensively (when he is not turning the ball over) and taking him out of the line up they can go bigger. Which means that Smotryz plays the 4 and Novak goes to the 3. They got killed on the boards on sunday and many other games, so now that all the big men are a year older they can have nice rotation at the 4 and 5 spots. This years line up worked for the most part, but it should not be the line up going forward.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:33 PM ^
I think Vogrich is going to be our most dangerous weapon on the team next year. With Hardaways continued offensive improvement along with Morris and Brundridge's ability to penetrate, Vogrich is going to be left open a lot of threes.
I think Trey Burkes ability to hit threes will put a lot of pressure on Stu Douglass. I cant say im the biggest Douglass fan because of his ineptitude in the offense for much of the season and his career. He plays 30 minutes a game and can only provide 7 points a game as a Junior, three years in this offense? Plus only shooting .358% from beyond the arc isnt going to help his case.
Im excited to see more athleticism on this Michigan team. It will provide more fast breaks and more open threes with the drive and kickout.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:43 PM ^
I like Burke's game too, but he'll big a big drop off from Douglass defensively.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:50 PM ^
Where do you get that trey cant play defense ? He shut down Corey Joseph as a Junior. Thats saying more than enough for his defense. He also said himself he loves playing defense.
March 22nd, 2011 at 12:37 AM ^
Agreed. Playing defense in high school is just like guarding Nolan Smith, Seth Curry, and Kyrie Irving.
Im just sayin hes a good defender. alot of guys on this blog talk as if he has no defense whats so ever. And Corey Joseph was well known in high school as an eletric scorer. It counts for somethin.
March 22nd, 2011 at 11:45 PM ^
And I'm just saying that when you are guarding some of the best guards in the nation, at a collegiate level, it is a lot different than playing good defense against one guy as a junior in high school. It does count for somethin....just not much.
March 21st, 2011 at 11:35 PM ^