World Cup Day 6 Thread

Submitted by Salinger on June 19th, 2018 at 10:05 AM

Columbia v Japan (Ongoing)

Poland v Senegal 11am ET

Russia v Egypt 2pm ET

Big story line is whether Mo Salah plays for Egypt and whether Russia can continue their unexpected attacking prowess. 

Comments

Wolverine862

June 19th, 2018 at 10:18 AM ^

Yea not the dream start they wanted. Carlos Sanchez would've been better off just letting the ball go in rather than sticking his arm out and blocking it, a la Suarez from 8 years ago. Now hes got a red and atleast out of the next game, and possibly done for the world cup unless Colombia advances.

TrueBlue2003

June 19th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^

He can play v Senegal but the suggestion is that Colombia could be effectively eliminated by then if they lose to Poland.

And that is almost certainly the case.  There is a possibility they could still make it in with 3 points but it would require Japan to win the group with 9 points, ha:

Japan goes 3-0 (ummmm rigggght)

Senegal goes 1-2 (losing to Japan and Colombia)

Poland goes 1-2 (beat Colombia and lose to Japan)

Colombia goes 1-2 (beat Senegal and lose to Poland but cover the point differential by destroying Senegal).

So you're telling me there's a chance!  Yeah, about a 0.03 percent chance of all that happening.

Sambojangles

June 19th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^

I'm with you. It's a triple penalty: for a handball red card you give up a PK, you lose a man for the game (the whole game in this case since it was so early) and you're also suspended for the next. It's very harsh. I think just the PK and red for the game would be enough, i think the suspension for the next game is piling on. 

TrueBlue2003

June 19th, 2018 at 2:59 PM ^

But he saved a goal.  So the real effect of the play is:

Benefit: Colombia prevents a sure goal.

Penalty: Japan is awarded a PK which is what 0.8-0.85 of a goal?

While I agree that playing a man down costs more than 0.2 goals, if they were allowed a sub, it would certainly be worth taking a hand ball there every time to save a goal. Because a DQ alone would be worth saving 0.2 goals.  

I don't mind making the penalty harsher than the crime to mostly deter the crime from ever happening.

TrueBlue2003

June 19th, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^

I've come up with a good in-between solution:

DQ with no sub for the remainder of the half if the half is not yet to the 30 min mark (so the rest of the game if you do it after the 30 min mark of the first half).

That way you wouldn't have a near full game advantage like today and the punishment is more in line with the crime.  You still have to DQ for the following game too because players would do this at the end of a game every time if not for a following game suspension.

L'Carpetron Do…

June 19th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^

With the exception of Mexico's huge win, the Central and South American teams haven't been doing so hot - Panama got blown out, Argentina and Brazil tied, Colombia, Peru and Costa Rica all lost.  

I was disappointed in Nigeria but I'll pull for them to get out of the group.  Definitely pulling for Egypt today.  I'd like to see more South/central American, African and Asian teams in it when they expand it next time!

TrueBlue2003

June 19th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^

Not that surprising given that they're playing on the other side of the world.  Central and South American teams dominated the 2014 World Cup (other than Germany winning it all):

Mexico advanced over Croatia (not shocking but about a coin flip)

Chile beat Spain 2-0 to advance out of that group (massively shocking)

Costa Rica (!!) and Uruguay advanced out of a group with Italy and England (massively shocking)

The US advanced in a group with Portugal (not exactly Central American but American)

Ecuador and Honduras were the only N, C or S American teams to not advance. 

Wolverine862

June 19th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^

Hopefully Salah plays for Egypt today, though after watch the foul fest that has been the first few days of the tourney, I dont know how long he will last.  I think his best chance would be to start on the bench, pray Egypt can make it through the first half level with Russia, and then come on in the second and wish for a bit of the luck and magic that he showed at Liverpool this year

Chuck Norris

June 19th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^

What a dumb play by Sanchez. Clear red and almost certainly cost his team the game. Columbia played Japan pretty even 10 v 11, you have to think they pull out at least a draw 11 v 11.

harmon40

June 19th, 2018 at 1:52 PM ^

Yup. That might be the dumbest play in soccer. Other team gets a PK and almost definitely scores anyway, and now your team has to play down a man, PLUS you are unavailable for the next match.

Sucks to think that Colombia's entire World Cup could be undone by just one play, but it may turn out just that way.

Next date vs Poland is now a de facto elimination match for Colombia...the knockout round arrives early for the cafeteros

uncle leo

June 19th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^

If you told me that Japan and Senegal (potentially) could be the group leaders for H, I would have laughed at ya.

Senegal is running laps around Poland right now, Poland is sleepwalking. Senegal is absolutely energized.

FreddieMercuryHayes

June 19th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^

As far as Poland, I don't think it's too surprising.  Mostly because it's a bit difficult to actually know how good Poland is.  They totally gamed the rankings this past cycle to get into Pot 1 and get an easier draw.  They just decided not to play friendlies, so they have limited evidence to say exactly how good they are.  They're good, but probably closer to Senegal than one might think.

FreddieMercuryHayes

June 19th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^

Yes, they do look better today.  Historically according to the FIFA rankings the past two years is the only time Poland has been in the top 10.  Most of this decade they were 50-70, until this past cycle when the started gaming the rankings and vaulted way up.  With the new ranking system FIFA is going to use I think Poland is low teens in rankings.  Senegal is like mid-low 20s in the same ranking (about the same as the US).

TrueBlue2003

June 19th, 2018 at 3:42 PM ^

FiveThirtyEight's FPI rankings had Poland ranked 17th out of the 32 teams entering this field: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2018-world-cup-predictions-work/

Behind Croatia, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Serbia, etc. and just ahead of Morocco and Peru!

They gamed the FIFA ratings to get into Pot 1 and I'm pretty sure FIFA changed the way they do rankings because of it.  Poland hasn't been near the world top 10 in reality in a long time.

gmoney41

June 19th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^

Absolutely, Neymar is so good but is so so over the top with the flops.   He was fouled like crazy on Sunday but his after the foul theatrics were ridiculous.    Like when Lebron used to flip all over the place, these guys are too good to be doing that garbage.  

I don’t have any real team to root for but as a city fan, there is a ton of my guys to root for.  I do hope Salah plays today.  Egypt isn’t half bad

FreddieMercuryHayes

June 19th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^

I personally don't get all the hate about flopping.  I mean, I laugh at the over the top rolls, but whatever.  A player is under no obligation to act tough after getting fouled.  And with how difficult it is to see fouls, I don't have a problem with a player calling attention to getting fouled.  What I really hate is the diving.  At least VAR might take a big bite out of that, especially the dives that try and get a player red carded or a penalty called.

FreddieMercuryHayes

June 19th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^

I mean, in theory I agree.  But I think the problem, at least historically, is that you didn't get the call without theatrics.  I mean why does Jay Wright and Tom Izzo constantly berate the refs no matter what happens?  I mean I hate that, but it works.  They get the calls with no repercussions, so they do it.  Same principle.  I don't think this applies to you, but I also get annoyed with people who complain about flopping and why it's the reason they don't like soccer without applying that same logic to other sports they enjoy.  But that's like just my opinion man.

FreddieMercuryHayes

June 19th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^

I mean, in theory I agree.  But I think the problem, at least historically, is that you didn't get the call without theatrics.  I mean why does Jay Wright and Tom Izzo constantly berate the refs no matter what happens?  I mean I hate that, but it works.  They get the calls with no repercussions, so they do it.  Same principle.  I don't think this applies to you, but I also get annoyed with people who complain about flopping and why it's the reason they don't like soccer without applying that same logic to other sports they enjoy.  But that's like just my opinion man.

UMinSF

June 19th, 2018 at 4:16 PM ^

Freddy,

You kind of contradicted yourself there. First you said you don't get all the hate toward floppers, then you used whining CBB coaches as a comparison, and said you hate that. That's exactly why people hate the flopping, diving, and writhing. It's phony, it's cheap gamesmanship, and it detracts from the game, at least for me. Others have told me they think "gamesmanship" is admirable and crafty; I don't agree.

I'm probably one of the people who annoys you, because it's an element of soccer that really bugs me. 

As for applying the same logic to other sports, I'll take it a step further. To a certain extent, I think flopping/diving in soccer has directly influenced other sports, as more players from soccer-first countries have entered our major leagues. Vlade Divac was a notorious flopper, and his generation of Euros seemed to change basketball (for the worse, IMO). I'd say the same thing in hockey; before the influx of Euros, both hoops and hockey had a taboo against flopping (used to love Don Cherry's rants). 

Of course, there have always been exceptions, but IMO both basketball and hockey have far more flopping and diving than they did prior to the influx and influence of players from soccer-first countries. 

All that said, I agree flopping exists because often enough it works. I still dislike it. Who likes the kid who's always calling fouls, or complaining to the refs?

gmoney41

June 19th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^

Yeah, the theatrics are what is ridiculous and Neymar is the worst offender in that department.  I don’t judge anyone for going down.  Sometimes when you are running full steam, a little shove can knock you over and it looks like a flop but it’s simply momentum that caused it.  I played for a while so I know how painful those cleats can be when even grazing you a little bit.  It’s the over the top dives and rolling around in writhing pain when you barely got touched that I hate. 

FreddieMercuryHayes

June 19th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^

Total mismanagement by the referee there for sure.  But also a really bad back pass by Poland there.  And the Senegal guy even bent his run to stay onside.  Not that I think it mattered with Poland back passing.

UMinSF

June 19th, 2018 at 4:34 PM ^

Honest question - is that more on the ref, or on the Poland players? 

It looked to me like horribly bad luck on both parts - surely the ref wouldn't have let the guy on the field at that moment if he knew a back pass was coming, and surely the Poland player wouldn't have back-passed if he thought the ref would release the guy at just that moment.

Crazy way to effectively clinch a game, for sure.