Week 4 CFB Betting Thread

Submitted by SAMgO on September 24th, 2015 at 8:42 AM

Last week was a poor showing for me. 0-3. Spurned by the likes of Stanford and Northwestern, how embarrassing.

But! We play on. There are a lot of games left to lose this season against the spread and we will find a way. Picks I like this week:

Utah +11.5 at Oregon - This is not the Oregon of old, and the questions around the health of Vernon Adams remain. His status for Saturday's game is still questionable, and Oregon's QB depth is, well, not deep. Looking for Travis Wilson and Devontae Booker to keep it reasonably close and cover.

Navy -6.5 at UConn - Navy is a good football team! So is East Carolina (relatively), and Navy surprisingly took care of them quite easily last week. It's hard to take much away from Mizzou "beating" UConn 9-6, and in weeks 1-2 the Huskies have only squeaked out wins against FCS Villanova and Army, which is one of the worst teams in the FBS. Plus, Navy is undefeated all time in conference play, so history is on my side. I like Navy by more than a TD.

Ohio +10.5 at Minnesota - Can Minnesota score 11 points? Yes. Can they score 11 points more than whatever their opponent scores even once this season? Doubtful.

Indiana -3.5 (-105) at Wake Forest - I believe!

 

Who are you taking this week?

 

Comments

Chester Cheetah

September 24th, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^

Last week was pretty brutal on my checking account, but there is always hope with a new week.  I'm not a fan of IU -3.5 due to their close games with SIU and WKU.

 

Maybe bet the o/u on IU vs WF (56)?

Wolverinefan84

September 24th, 2015 at 10:04 AM ^

But nonetheless, I like:

1. GT -8 @ Duke- Duke looked terrible against NW. GT beats up inferior opponents and I think they'll crush Duke after a tough loss to ND

2. Vandy @ Ole Miss -25- I know it's a big spread to cover, but I like that it's a 7:00 home game. Ole Miss's offense has been absurd thus far, and I think they will crush Vandy.

3. Tennessee +1 @ Florida- I think UT will be good this year, and I think they're better than Florida

mGrowOld

September 24th, 2015 at 9:24 AM ^

If it makes you feel any better I'm not much better.  I'm about 5-10 this year so far so don't look at me for any sage advice.

I will say on your picks the one i noticed was you picked all road teams which I thought was interesting.  And the one I like the most is the Utah pick (totally agree on Oregon being overvalued right now) and the one I like the least is Indiana (they are a brutal, horrible road team).

As a matter of fact I'll prolly parlay those two just for fun.  Utah with the points and Wake laying the field goal.

champ009kd

September 24th, 2015 at 9:03 AM ^

Cincinnati @ Memphis Over 66. 

2 strong armed quarterbacks. Memphis should put up atleast 40. Lowest scoring this season was 44 against MAC opponent BG. They gave up 41 in that game. Cincinnati's lowest score was 26. Gave up 33 against MAC opposent Miami U last week. 

 

Navy @ UCONN  Under 47. 

Im not sure UCONN can score more than 14 points. Thats all. They've scores 15, 17, 9. 

 

Tennesee @ Florida Pick em!

Taking Tennessee. Like UT's running backs. Not sold on their QB, but think Jalen Hurd and the other guy will be the difference. 

 

 

westwardwolverine

September 24th, 2015 at 9:21 AM ^

I probably should have posted this last week, but I made only one bet: North Carolina (vs. Illinois). That was such a gimme at -8, my only regret is not putting my mortgage on it. 

I don't see a lock in CFB this week. 

Hemlock Philosopher

September 24th, 2015 at 9:28 AM ^

Cinci +10 @Memphis. Like this to be a high-scoring close game. BTW - to whoever picked Clemson last week as "easy money": Never pick against a home dog on Thursday night. MEM 48-43

@CUSE +24 LSU. I know, Fournette for Heisman… But noon in the Carrier dome has snoozer written all over it. The Tigers win, but look disinterested in the fare for the day. LSU 31-10

@WVa -16.5 MD. Maryland is weak on D and should give up 50+. WVa 52-24.

Tennessee PK @UF. Tennesse is tested and Florida is not. I like Tennessee to grind out a close low-scoring win in the swamp. UT 16-10.

TCU -8.5 @TTU. Should be a very high-scoring affair. If you do the Fan Duel/Draft Kings thing – load up on Frogs and Red Raiders. . I see TCU by two TDs 63-49.

@WASH +4.5 Stanford. I’m going on a little up-down theory here. Stanford just ruined USC’s season, again. Feels good, doesn’t it boys. Stanford 24-21.

MGoBud

September 24th, 2015 at 10:31 AM ^

Had a pretty solid week last week (4-2) with my biggest plays on BYU and Stanford. Hopefully I can repeat or do even better this week.

TCU -6.5. Defense is banged up and will probably give up a ton of points. But Texas Tech’s defense is even worse. Spread is pretty low and everyone is riding high on the TTU train but TCU is still the much better team. I also like a small play on the OVER of 79.5

BYU +5.5. This one pains me but the more I bet with my heart the more I lose. I think we win but I just don’t see the cover. BYU is always the underdog and all they do is cover. Late Kenny Allen FG gives us the win, but take BYU and the points. Plus at least you win money after you’re depressed if we lose.

Southern Miss +22. Another team where all they do is cover. Nebraska got extremely lucky to come back and take that game into OT last week, it was never that close, and Miami’s top 2 DB’s were kicked out of the game during the comeback. Take the 22.

Oregon -12. This game does scare me I will admit. The only reason I am taking Oregon is because I thought the spread would be closer to 15-16, instead it’s listed at 12. We all know Utah is legit, but Oregon at home is just a different animal. Ducks to cover.

UCLA -3. Myles Jack being out is a huge blow, but Arizona’s D is atrocious, even if Scooby Wright does come back. Rosen should have a monster day to a team that gave up almost 600 yards to UTSA (!). Gameday is in Tuscon and it’ll be a crazy environment but I’ll take the Bruins. Take that Rich Rod.

USC -5.5. Everyone is off the USC bandwagon after getting demolished last week. I’m back on the bandwagon after taking Stanford. USC’s front 7 is legit and frankly ASU has not been very impressive in any game this year. Lay the points, and while you’re at it put a small play on the UNDER of 64 as well.

GT -7.5. If this line goes to 8 or any higher I would avoid it. But at 7.5 I like GT after getting crushed by ND last week. Duke will be able to score but I don’t know if they will be able to stop the triple option consistently. Going with the Ramblin Wreck. Mostly because I just like to call them the Ramblin Wreck.

Well come back with an evaluation of the picks next week. Good luck everyone!

 

UM Fan from Sydney

September 24th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^

BYU at UM (-5.5): Michigan will cover

Kansas at Rutgers (-12.5): Kansas will cover

Central Michigan at MSU (-27.5): MSU will cover

LSU (-24.5) at Syracuse: LSU will cover

Western Michigan at OSU (-31.5): Dicey game. I'd stay away, but have to imagine that Meyer got his team on the right page and will destroy WMU.

Tennessee (-1) at Florida: Florida will cover

UMass at ND (-29): ND will cover

Texas A&M (-7) at Arkansas: A&M will cover

UCLA (-3) at Arizona: eeehhhhh, I think Arizona wins this game.

Utah at Oregon (-11.5): Oregon will cover

USC (-5.5) at Arizona State: this is my lock of the week - ASU wins this game

 

 

foot note: I think it's hilarious that BGSU is giving 2.5 points to Purdue when Purdue is the home team. I like BGSU to win that game.

LSAClassOf2000

September 24th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^

Strangely enough, Minnesota is averaging 16.7 points per game and averaging 347.4 yards of offense per game, which are good enough for #109 and #93 in Division I, respectively. Turn that into an efficiency metric and run it across their 74 plays per game average, you get an offense that has to work really hard at scoring - 0.212 points per play, good for #115 in Division I. Even if Minnesota wins, they do so in hideous fashion given those numbers.

corundum

September 24th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^

Operation fade Auburn. I took Miss St +3 before they announced Jeremy Johnson was getting benched. Now I like the pick even more.

Also, I doubled down on Arizona +3.5. They are a home dog, UCLA is coming off a tough game against BYU, and now have to adjust to the loss of Myles Jack.

I put a small amount on BG over Purdue on an even line, now the spread is BG -2 with Purdue's change up at QB.

AAK15

September 24th, 2015 at 1:33 PM ^

Texas Tech +7 over TCU I really like, classic trap game, plus a home underdog always intrigues me.

Vanderbilt +24.5 they have a much better defense than people realize and will play this game close.

Ball State +18.5 as Tyler Duffy said, NU should never be 18.5 point favorites

UMASS +29 Sandwich game for ND, plus UMASS is talented. Kept Temple to a very close game, and Temple is a damn solid football team this year

Indiana plays Wake Forest to go 4-0 for first time since 1990 - so I say play Wake +3 - Indiana has 94% of money and is a road dog I love this bet!

Western Michigan +31.5 over OSU, until OSU proves something, I have no reason to trust them to put away a team that kept it reasonably close to MSU

Mississippi State +1.5 operation fade Auburn + DAK

ULM +38 over Bama - Bama never covers against lesser opponents, is 0-7 covering after a loss, and ULM is coming off a bye week. Plus Bama coming off an emotional loss and has to look ahead to Georgia next week.

BeatOSU52

September 24th, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^

Last week was burtal for me as well as I double-down on betting that Mad Men would win Best Drama (on offshore betting site) and lost.

 

I like Arizona +3 vs UCLA so far.

MGoBud

September 25th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^

I did take Bosie tonight but I will be putting a bigger bet on the Over. The reason - UVA really struggles against stopping the run (Check out that William & Mary box score) and Boise struggles defending the pass. Well, Boise can and will run the ball, while UVA loves to air it out and has a solid QB. 2 strenghts against 2 weaknesses. I'm going with the over. Also like a small play on Oregon State if you're really looking to get after it tonight.