Way Too Early 2025 Thought - Most 1st Round Draft Selections Ever?
Given our potentially historically deep draft class which is vying for the most draft picks from a single school ever, I'm sure many of our rivals think the cupboard has been left bare, though they may budge on saying we'll have a good defense headlined by our two top ten DT's.
We Michigan faithful, of course, know differently however as, with the exception of Quarterback, maybe Wide Receiver, and second Corner, we have sure fire talent/experience returning across the board.
I would even venture to argue that our 2025 NFL Draft Class, though not as large, may be far more highly coveted in the NFL's eyes than our current one, which currently has one projected 1st rounder (our fearless leader JJ). So much so, I think we could break the record for most 1st rounders taken from a single school, but I would love my fellow MGoBloggers to trash my terribly illogical take and talk some sense into me!
I hadn't really thought of it until the other day when I was watching a Madden Franchise video (I know, but its as reliable a source as any of the million clownshow "experts" with their mock drafts) which had 6 Michigan players go in the first round. In alphabetical order the individuals taken were as follows:
- Colston Loveland (Mid)
- Derrick Moore (Mid)
- Donovan Edwards (Late)
- Kenneth Grant (Early)
- Mason Graham (Early)
- Will Johnson (Early)
I don't know about you, but I couldn't really make an argument as to the picks being ridiculous, especially if Dono bounces back and Moore expands on the 5 sacks he got this year in his limited role. Then I looked it up and according to this NCAA article:
"2004 Miami tied 2021 Alabama for the record for most first-round picks at six"
If the above remains true we would tie the record, but why stop there?? I could make an argument for a number of our other players, chief among them being Rod Moore. There is also a possibility of one of our OL breaking out and becoming a first rounder per Kirk Campbell ($).
So do y'all think I am insane for thinking this way? Any other first rounders that didn't make the list?
March 19th, 2024 at 11:42 AM ^
There will be many Michigan players drafted. But six or more in the first round would be bonkers. I think the line should be at about 3. If it's 3.5 I take the under.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^
Loveland, Graham and Johnson likely. I like Grant as 4th. Moore and DE would need a monster year. Rod Moore?
3.5 seems like a good spread. I like the over though.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:58 PM ^
I agree on the 3.5. I'd say Johnson and Graham likely, Grant decently likely, with Loveland a possible late 1st rounder that's the wildcard between the over and under. Will be interesting to see where Bowers goes, since my guess is that Loveland would go a little lower than that.
D. Moore and Edwards seem like pipe dreams unless they really blow up, plus in Edwards case would need some luck on top of it since it's by no means a lock that a RB will even be taken in the 1st. Feel like Rod Moore probably peaks as a 2nd or 3rd rounder, but I guess you never know.
I'd say Johnson and Graham are almost certain 1st round picks. Grant likely. Loveland and Moore possibly. Moore unlikely currently, though a big season could change that. Edwards unlikely unless he can show vastly improved vision or more likely, show incredible production as a receiver out of the backfield.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:43 AM ^
I know this is pedantic (and semantic), but shouldn't that quote instead state that "2021 Alabama tied 2004 Miami" ? Or was it written by Doc Brown?
March 19th, 2024 at 11:54 AM ^
your forgetting that relative velocity can affect our perceptions of time. And Alabama had that SEC speed so in the south, it happened BEFORE Miami but we experienced it as happening much later.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:44 PM ^
lets
do
the time warp
again
March 19th, 2024 at 11:45 AM ^
The team had a ton of talent, but it was a ton of mid-round talent as opposed to a ton of 1st round talent.
Those early 2000s Miami teams and some of those Saban teams just had obscene top-end first round talent. With NIL and transfer portals these days preventing stockpiling as much talent, I don’t think you ever see teams with that much talent again.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:36 PM ^
reason #1 why Saban is retiring. Coaching football is a lot easier if you have 3 deep first round picks at every position.
2017 Tide: (40 players drafted over multiple years)
QB: Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones (3 NFL starting QBs)
RB: Josh Jacobs, Najee Harris, Damien Harris. (Derrick Henry had just left)
WR: Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Henry Ruggs III.
OL: Jonah Williams, Jerick Wills and Alex Leatherwood.
Michigan had a ridiculous amount of talent this year and had top talent in the 70s,80s,90s, but most years we've had a fraction of what Bama and Georgia have had. Harbaugh figured it out the last couple of years. I'm hoping Michigan can continue to thrive.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:47 AM ^
I like where your mind is at!
March 19th, 2024 at 11:47 AM ^
For 2025 I would consider Grant/Graham/Johnson to be locks barring something completely unforeseen. Loveland I would put in the "more likely than not" group. Moore is a good call but I wouldn't count him yet, need to see more production first. Edwards I would put in the "longer shot" group. I would wager that you are more likely to see someone blow up and be a first rounder than Edwards.
Bonus hot take: Grant will be the first Michigan guy off the board in his draft. His upside is so much higher than Graham's that after a full year of being a starter he's possibly going top 5.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:56 AM ^
Will Johnson is a top ten pick.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:27 PM ^
You're underrating Mason Graham, man. Grant's obviously a freak and seems destined for the top-15, but Graham could be the next Aaron Donald.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:40 PM ^
I still think he will go between 10-20 so I don't think I am underrating him. It is just that Graham is a generic 1st round DT and his reportedly short arms will cap his draft stock, Grant has the potential to be a unicorn. 6'4" 340 pounder who already has pass rush chops as a true sophomore, those just don't come along every draft.
OK, I think we're on the same page. Underscoring your point: despite all the character questions, Jalen Carter's floor was ninth overall.
Plus, we have yet to see Grant return kicks. You'll be seeing a lot of business decision touchdowns given up to him.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:50 AM ^
Edwards is not a first rounder
He could blow up this year and be a first rounder, but most years there are very few RBs in the first round so the odds are against him. I'm not sure where that trope came from, but the last 10 years there have been ~1.4 RBs per year which is about right when you consider there are 22 positions and 32 teams (~1.45) 2013 and 2014 brings down the average though. Only thing I can figure out is that the 2012 backs sucked so much that no one wanted to get burnt the next couple of years. NFL also became a passing league. Here are the stats for every first round back taken since 2000.
2022-2
2021-2
2020-1
2019-1
2018-3
2017-2
2016-1
2015-2
2014-0
2013-0
2012-3 (Trent Richardson(3), Doug Martin(31), David Wilson(32)
2011-1
2010-3
2009-3
2008-5
2007-2
2006-4
If he plays like he did against UW, then he will be. He's always had the potential. We'll see if he puts it together in a featured role with a strong backfield partner in Mullings.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:54 AM ^
Don't forget the possibility (according to some wishcasters) that Orji will be the first QB taken in 2025.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:11 PM ^
/Sklar Hot Take Voice
March 19th, 2024 at 12:21 PM ^
Brought to you from the makers of "Wait until Yoyo and Reed get to cook next year"
You mean the 1st overall pick
March 19th, 2024 at 11:55 AM ^
Puleeze. There's maize & blue colored glasses and then there's (waves hand).....this.
Six first round picks? Hell, why stop there - maybe we'll have ALL 32 FIRST ROUND PICKS TAKEN FROM MICHIGAN. I mean that could happen, right? Once they take all 22 of our starters they would then take our top 10 back-ups who are awesome but just not as awesome as the awesome starters.
Not sure if we can get all 32 picks in the 2nd round but it'll be close. Might be one or two oddball selections from another school for some zany reason.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^
Might be one or two oddball selections from another school for some zany reason.
Guaranteed that Cleveland is one of those.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:36 PM ^
The only stretches are Edwards and Moore. The rest would have first-round grades this year.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:40 PM ^
Yeah the OP has definitely gotten drunk off too much maize & blue kool aid. It’s the same people on here who talk about JJ like he’s the most perfect NFL QB prospect ever like they forgot about all the balls he threw behind or over the heads of open receivers or struggling to quickly process zone defenses at times. Will Johnson (barring injury) is the only player on the list who’s a reasonable lock for first round. Projecting any other player as an early or mid 1st rounder isn’t taking the maize & blue glasses off. They’ll need incredible seasons this year to make their way in.
It’s the same people on here who talk about JJ like he’s the most perfect NFL QB prospect ever like they forgot about all the balls he threw behind or over the heads of open receivers or struggling to quickly process zone defenses at times.
These same people weren't all that wrong about JJ. He's projected to go top 10 and perhaps top 5, so maybe not the most perfect QB prospect, but certainly elite in this draft.
And besides DE, I don't think OP's projections are that outlandish. Loveland, Graham and Johnson are top guys in their respective positions and likely 1st rounders. Grant has the highest ceiling and Moore has the potential to work himself into the first round with a monster year.
Ok let's make this interesting. OP says we're gonna have 6 first rounders next year and clearly lots of you guys think he's pretty accurate. I'm going to put the over/under at 2.5 and take the under.
Who wants to bet me?
Given that my line is set at 3.5, I'll gladly take the over.
I'd be happy to donate $100 to a charity of your choice if I lose.
I project like Fred Jackson only with more optimism.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^
It's unclear that any RB will go in the 1st round any given year. Edwards would have to have been playing on a broken leg last year for this to happen.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:01 PM ^
Will Johnson is a lock if he stays healthy for top ten.
Graham second or third rounder.
Loveland second or third rounder.
Edwards is a day two or day three pick.
Grant is a possible first rounder.
Derrick Moore possible late first early second round pick,
March 19th, 2024 at 12:26 PM ^
Disagree on Graham - there are rumblings he would have been the first pick in 2024.
A good year will kick him into the 1st round.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:33 PM ^
That's exactly what PFF said: https://x.com/PFF_College/status/1769055277306057118?s=20
Not exactly. First DT picked.
Maybe if we see him do Caleb Williams things in the fall he can move up to #1 overall.
Uff da. I definitely read that as "first [DT] pick[ed]", although I suspect it actually means "first [Michigan player] pick[ed]". Otherwise, the second paragraph doesn't make sense.
Sorry, that was a typo. I meant to say first DT picked.
🤣 🤣 1st overall in a heavy QB needy draft with several elite prospects at the position, and you think MG would have gone 1? Not even a miniscule shot that would have happened. Like zero percent
March 19th, 2024 at 12:08 PM ^
We always overhype our guys. Jenkins was a lock as a physical freak last year. except he wasn't.
- Colston Loveland (Mid) - Not a first round pick now or then. Love the guy but TEs that are not hybrid TE/WRs typically dont go so high.
- Derrick Moore (Mid) - I mean, we have to see a huge leap. NFL loves Edge guys.
- Donovan Edwards (Late) - No. RBs arent gonna be taken this early. If they are, he's not that dude, IMO. He might end up having a great NFL career, but don't see him going ahead of other positions.
- Kenneth Grant (Early) - Probably 2-3rd round. he's great, but DT is a very hot position. There are always elite DTs that go high.
- Mason Graham (Early) - Maybe if he can stay healthy. For some reason, in my head, I see him as a Cam heywood type.
- Will Johnson (Early) - If he continues to live up to the hype and stays healthy, then yes, agree.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:34 PM ^
Loveland is literally a converted WR.
he doesnt play like a devin funchess or have the physical tools of brock bowers. he may have been one, but he plays like a big blocky and catchy tight end. he's great. but not a 1st round talent at this point
March 19th, 2024 at 12:10 PM ^
I'm pretty sure all the then-juniors will come back for the 3-peat, so just The Don and R. Moore will be first rounders in 2025. In 2026, though, LTFO.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:12 PM ^
I would say 2 is the most likely. I can see 6 in the first 3 rounds though.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:17 PM ^
I looked for 2025 mock drafts online and found a bunch. YMMV (very much). Graham and Johnson are in every one I saw. This (https://www.solidverbal.com/author/travis-may/) guy has them, Graham, and Loveland in the first round:
Interestingly, Ethan Burke (a decommit from Texas a couple of years ago) and Deone Walker (from Cass Tech and generally on the map) make appearances.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:17 PM ^
Mason, Will and Grant will all be coming back from their senior year.
I'm Eastside Maize and I approve this message.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:59 PM ^
I love the optimism, but I'm taking the under. Graham and Johnson will be, and Grant might have a shot but the others all feel like a major stretch given the limited number of 1st round spots out of however many NCAA teams there are and all their draft eligible players. There are a lot of talented guys out there most of us have never heard of because our sports world revolves around what happens in Ann Arbor.
Edwards could win the Heisman and very likely not be a 1st round pick. Probably not even a 2nd round pick