UM v Rutgers opening line -10.5

Submitted by A_Maized on November 15th, 2020 at 3:51 PM

UM opens up as a 10.5 point road favorite verses Rutgers.  Rutgers beat  MSU but lost to IL by 3pts. Thoughts on the line?  

robpollard

November 15th, 2020 at 4:03 PM ^

I'm not surprised we're favored, but by 10.5? That is insane.

I would think a line of -2.5 for Michigan would make more sense.

But, as always, line are set to draw action, not b/c that's how much better (in reality) one team is against someone else. Maybe Vegas is concerned too small a line would draw too much action from Michigan's much larger fanbase?

A_Maized

November 15th, 2020 at 4:09 PM ^

I took WI -4 and -7 before the kickoff.   Once the game stated I took them again at -27.5 and - 31.5 as well as a halftime bet of -2.5 for the second half (I still don’t understand that line).  It’s hard to tell what team is going to show up. We could beat Rutgers by 3 scores or struggle, but I can’t see laying the points on the road. 

NittanyFan

November 15th, 2020 at 5:03 PM ^

It's seems about right. 

(1) Home-field advantage is less these days vs. a typical year,

(2) Michigan is still, by any objective measure, notably more talented than Rutgers, and

(3) Rutgers just lost a football game to Illinois while allowing 341 (!!!) yards rushing.

All that said, I wouldn't actually bet on Michigan at -10.5.  This game seems like a hard pass.

Golden section

November 16th, 2020 at 6:43 PM ^

And UM piled up an incredible 47 yards rushing against Wisconsin - be prepared to be bludgeoned Scarlet Knights!! 

Against Wisconsin,  UM:

  1. Lost by 38 points, biggest point margin under Harbaugh
  2. Were outgained by 249 yards - the worst yardage margin under Harbaugh
  3. -16 in first downs he worst first-down differential under Harbaugh
  4. And Michigan became the first Big Ten team in 15 years to not record a sack or a takeaway in five consecutive halves

Team Stats                           UM     Rutgers       

Points Per Game                  26.3     26.5  

Points Allowed Per Game    34.5     34.0

Yards Passing                     260.3  196.0

Yards Rushing                    117.0   133.5  

Total Yards                         377.3   329.5

Pass Yards Allowed           247.3    243.8 

Rush Yards Allowed          178.5    175.0  

Yards Allowed                   425.8   418.8

Record                              1-3        1-3

So yeah -9 against Rutgers seems about right. 

ChalmersE

November 15th, 2020 at 5:07 PM ^

Not sure where you saw 10.5.  Vegas Insiders shows the opening line was 9 and the current consensus is 8.5.  I still think that’s an attractive line for a home dog against a struggling team, especially since the home dog is going to treat this as a rivalry game and the visitors will probably be shrugging all week.

DHughes5218

November 15th, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^

I would take Michigan minus the points if we had both of our Tackles along with Paye and Hutch. Without them, I have no idea how this team will perform. Schiano has his guys playing until the final whistle and even if we get a three score lead you have to worry about a back door cover with a spread that big. No thanks. 

Perkis-Size Me

November 15th, 2020 at 9:09 PM ^

Rutgers by 13. This team has mailed it in.  

Schiano and his team will be hungry for a statement win (it would be a statement for them anyway) and there’s plenty of guys playing for Rutgers who have endured more than their fair share of ass kickings from Michigan, and any fifth year seniors they have were still around for the 78-0 crucifixion. They are all going to be jacked up to play this game and inflict the pain that Michigan has inflicted on them. 

I just don’t think Michigan cares anymore. 

butuka21

November 16th, 2020 at 2:52 PM ^

Whose Favored Rutgers??

Give me Rutgers all day on this.  This team is sloppy, undisciplined and loves to create it's own problems.  I've never seen so many offsides penalties in my lifetime.