Two major factors in OSU-UM during Harbaugh era

Submitted by TK on November 21st, 2018 at 1:36 PM

1. Defense has worn down in second half. 3 straight years being outscored in the second half. 68-26 combined score. Maybe they made better adjustments, more likely our offense couldn’t sustain drives and the D grew tired. This team seems to thrive on second half adjustments this year so time to break that streak. 

2. Turnovers. Stating the obvious of course, but we have lost the turnover battle 3 years in a row, 5 turnovers to 1. With a potentially wet field, ball security is crucial and we saw this pop up at MSU. Can’t give OSU any free points. Had we taken care of the ball 2 years ago, the officials incompetence wouldn’t have mattered. 



November 21st, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^

1.  You can not blame the defense for "wearing down" when the QBs are constantly making mistakes and turnovers.

2.  Turnovers are the key to all of this.


November 21st, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^

You missed the two most important factors - injuries and depth.

This is the first year that we've been overall healthy as a team heading into OSU. It's also the first year that a player like Winovich can go down without it totally damaging the performance of the team.

It's a damn shame that Dylan went down this year. I hope we don't need him during the OSU game. We're dangerously shallow at QB, but otherwise, the depth seems great everywhere. 



November 21st, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^

I would add:

3. Severe disadvantage at QB for Michigan. We have started MAC level QBs the last 2 years. This year it's advantage Michigan. Haskins is a 1 read QB and will be exposed on Saturday.


November 21st, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^

For those looking for the stars to align and to have another reason to be hopeful; I'll give you one more reason to be optimistic. Obviously the third factor has been officiating, most particularly in 2016.  

Any reason to believe the officiating will be any better in 2018?

Answer: Yes. For the first time since 2011, Michigan's defensive line is drawing offensive holding calls at a faster per play clip than Ohio State.  As you can see, some of those years were downright dreadful.  This year, Ohio State seems to have caught the "can't buy a flag" bug as it relates to holding.

It could be coincidence; it could be shifting biases. Nobody really knows.

Plays Per Offensive Holding_0.png


Who won the game in 2011?  I may just have to Google it...


November 21st, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^

Their problem is that they had to make halftime adjustments to pull out narrow wins against Maryland and Nebraska, and it was less that they adjusted to stop Maryland and more that they had to pull out all the offensive stuff they wanted to save for this week (Haskins actually running on a read option comes to mind).  


November 21st, 2018 at 4:30 PM ^

In 2016 - the only really relevant comparison to this year - we were outscored 10-7 in the second half.  That was way more on our offense for committing two killer turnovers (one denying us a TD, the other setting up a TD for them) than on the "defense wearing down."

Durham Blue

November 21st, 2018 at 11:00 PM ^

The line at has slid from Michigan -4 to -4.5 with more money on -4.5.  It's -115 for Michigan -4.5 and OSU +4.5 pays -105.  It means that bettors still see the 4.5 point spread as generous towards Michigan.


November 22nd, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^

Turnovers in either red zone is one of the few direct paths to losing this game.  2016 was a 20-0 restoration of order for M without those three killer TO's by Speight, and the same thing could certainly happen again.  But please don't!


November 22nd, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^

Interesting thanksgiving story.. close family friend is Kevin Wilson’s nephew and told me a story that before the Purdue game Kevin went to Ryan day and laid out around 10 plays based on Purdue’s defensive tendencies he thought would hit for big play. Day didn’t call one play and Wilson from that moment on has checked out and there has been a divide in coaching staff since then...not that this is the major reason this osu team has been crap this year but I think it could be a little piece of what’s going on.