scouting msu defense vs. penn state & northwestern + fix for earlier post [every snap]
had to brush up on my russian to download the .mkvs of the msu vs. northwestern and penn state games to get the 1st quarter footage of the northwestern game / last msu drive in the penn state game (which was missing from my earlier posts). http://720pier.ru/index.php is a great site by the way, kind of insane that the Russians have the largest torrent library of live american sports on the internet. Da!
anyways, here are the goods -
msu offense vs. northwestern [1 of 2] - https://youtu.be/QSmIPGjoo7U
msu offense vs. northwestern [2 of 2] - https://youtu.be/TV6IQwZy6r4
msu defense vs. northwestern [1 of 2] - https://youtu.be/-QfKZSFqRoo
msu defense vs. northwestern [2 of 2] - https://youtu.be/Ma4KoIijVQw
msu offense vs. penn state [1 of 2] - https://youtu.be/I_H6AM-_kBM
msu offense vs. penn state [2 of 2] - https://youtu.be/qSsIo12S32I
msu defense vs. penn state [single video] - https://youtu.be/vZtgcYXDtuk
Things of note -
1) They do an interesting A/C gap blitz twist instead of the usual double A gap blitz. This happened in the northwestern game
2) TE routes down the middle seam looks like something I can see them running more of
3) They haven't really thrown the ball deep very often but I fully expect them to take a few pages out of ND's playbook and test Hill deep. Double move by Felton Davis should be expected
October 17th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^
Can't help but think Tru Wilson is a huge (YUGE) factor in this game. Best blocker at RB since Mike Hart, and he can, you know, run. I really hope Harbaugh takes advantage of this oppo to throw all over Sparty's ass secondary.
October 18th, 2018 at 3:31 AM ^
This is what we expected last week and it didn't happen.
October 18th, 2018 at 9:36 AM ^
Tru did a great job of getting us our final 1st downs at the end of the game to avoid giving the ball back to Wisconsin. Something we haven't done in a long time. I think you'll see him get time against MSU for those tough 1st downs. Kid runs hard as hell.
October 18th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
This is true, but Wisconsin's rush defense hasn't exactly been great this year either. They surrendered over 6 ypc against BYU, so we likely figured we could run on them.
October 18th, 2018 at 9:55 AM ^
Don't get me wrong I like Tru and the attitude he brings with his game but he doesn't see the field like Higdon does. Hopefully with time he can develop that.
October 17th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^
So Felton Davis will be a double agent?
October 17th, 2018 at 10:13 PM ^
Thanks! Wish i had this copy instead of the B1G's crummy ass pixelated stream when I did the FFFF offense.
October 17th, 2018 at 10:18 PM ^
Quick thoughts while Foe Film uploads since I just charted all of PSU and IU:
1) They do an interesting A/C gap blitz twist instead of the usual double A gap blitz. This happened in the northwestern game
That's been in the playbook for a long time. The Double-A got famous because of that one year but A/C gap blitz is a standard of quarters defenses since those are the common gaps for the MLB and SAM (they just flip their normal gaps)
2) TE routes down the middle seam looks like something I can see them running more of
Lol they would if they could. They can't protect Lewerke enough so they've been running max pro or just going 4-wide (when they go 5-wide they get smoked)
3) They haven't really thrown the ball deep very often but I fully expect them to take a few pages out of ND's playbook and test Hill deep. Double move by Felton Davis should be expected
Again, an OL problem. Don't trust the tackles enough to dial up long plays, don't have the consistency with their under-center game to set up long throws. Their best run play is Lewerke's speed option, which as play-action converts to a rollout.
October 17th, 2018 at 10:22 PM ^
Healthy Chewins is an upgrade at LT that will probably help their offensive flow more.
October 17th, 2018 at 10:45 PM ^
I think Chewins will be overmatched
October 17th, 2018 at 11:53 PM ^
Completely agree. The expected preseason MSU OL hasn't had a single snap this season. And at one point 4 were out injured. Getting Chewins last week was huge, and given how he looked when he stretched out to save Sparty's game with that tackle on the INT, he's probably at full strength now. With Jarvis looking very likely to be ready, now only Beedle is missing.
Granted: Their OL is unlikely to become a world beater because of these returns. But every Michigan fan expecting a steamy heap at OL has miscalibrated expectations.
October 18th, 2018 at 3:36 AM ^
yeah no Michigan's gonna whip their ass. Cole Chewins isn't a real person.
October 18th, 2018 at 1:18 AM ^
isn't he like 280 lbs and rusty?
October 18th, 2018 at 12:17 AM ^
Yes because lewerke is slamming that ball out of his hands in 2.5-4.0 seconds from the snap. I timed every 2nd half snaps. Tells me he has zero confidence in pass protection. And causes him to make poor and ill advised throws. But also gets a few chunk plays bc hes slinging it so quick. God i hope rashan comes back for this game. If so, his 40% self will slam this game shut very quickly
October 17th, 2018 at 10:48 PM ^
Michigan 24 MSU 19. Final.
michigan up 24-13 late in 4th qtr. MSU scores with 2 minutes left and fails 2 point conversion.
0-0 1st qtr
10-7 halftime
17-13 3rd qtr
24-19 final
3 tds for uofm and 1 fg
2 tds for MSU and 2 fg and 1 failed 2 point.
uofm 89 yards rushing with 2 tds. 246 yards passing with 1 td. 1 interception.
Msu 79 yards rushing with 1 td. 268 yards passing with 1 td. 1 interception.
October 17th, 2018 at 11:03 PM ^
No way they get more yards
October 17th, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
Garbage yards because Michigan will be up 11 with 6 min left or so.
btw...if I am right I will be quitting my job and becoming a professional gambler.
October 17th, 2018 at 11:42 PM ^
If we are giving up garbage yards up 11 with 6 minutes to go, then I will have to make a few poorly worded, alcohol fueled comments about the coaching in the appropriate snowflakes thread. Up 11 with 6 minutes to go does not qualify as "garbage," given Coach D's track record against opponents and UM, specifically. Garbage time happens up 30 with 6 minutes to go, not two possessions,
October 18th, 2018 at 1:26 AM ^
Garbage time is up 30-10 with 8 minutes to go. I think we can all agree with that.
October 18th, 2018 at 8:52 AM ^
I shouldn’t of stated “garbage” yards, I should have said more of a prevent situation that gives up some underneath yards but no big plays.
sticking with msu scores with 2 or less minutes and fails the 2 pt conversion.
October 18th, 2018 at 1:25 AM ^
They are the 75th ranked offense according to S&p and, are going against the #1 s&p defense. Moreover, Michigan is a top 30 s&p offense while state is a top 25 defense. So, they are going to need more that just one garbage time drive. I can see it happening if Michigan is killing the field position battle like 15, or if state is really lucky with TO luck.
But their offense isn't going to be nearly as effecent as Michigan's.
October 18th, 2018 at 6:26 AM ^
How’re we getting 246 through the air with 30 mph winds and rain?
October 18th, 2018 at 9:36 AM ^
Worked great last year? 198 passing yards with O'Korn.
October 17th, 2018 at 11:09 PM ^
If you want to find just about anything in media, the Russian internet is amazing.
October 17th, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
I feel like this michigan team is different.. at QB for obvious reasons, i am just still a little nervous with shea scrambling around.
Hopefully with the way MSU sells out to stop the run we focus on chewing up their secondary.. I also want to believe in our Oline that it is starting to look like the old days more and more, but i am still having a hard time until we do it to someone with a good run defense.. Wisconsin's defense just felt average to me.
I know last year Higdon was getting about 5 ypc then harbaugh kept swapping in Isaac who fumbled and lost all our momentum.. At least this year we know that will not happen..
I just need michigan to prove it on the road for a change
October 17th, 2018 at 11:17 PM ^
Well maybe MSU has an average defense also. Toughest team they played was penn state who actually had more yards. Northwestern only had 8 yards rushing, but only had 76 against Troy. Who knows.
October 17th, 2018 at 11:44 PM ^
Good point. I thought about that as well.
My coworker keeps saying because their run d is #1 in the country that they will beat us.
He also hates Shea and thinks he is terrible, but also thinks McCaffrey should be the starter and is a future heisman candidate.
I know msus secondary is almost dead last in the country, probably because all they do is sell out for the run.
Who knows if we play a clean game we should win easy. If not it's a toss up.
October 17th, 2018 at 11:47 PM ^
That last sentence might be the key right there.
It's a road game. Are the officials going to ram it up our ass with the flags?
October 18th, 2018 at 12:19 AM ^
I have a feeling 〽️ is going to get a more fair shake moving forward. If that ends up being the case then Kudos to Warde (and the team) for staying the course and fighting
October 18th, 2018 at 5:40 AM ^
"It's a road game. Are the officials going to ram it up our ass with the flags?"
That's a rhetorical question. Of course MSU is going to get home cooking from the refs, and any Michigan fan who isn't expecting that is very, very likely to be very disappointed.
Refereeing in the BIG is terrible, and one of the reasons it's terrible is that there is a frequent ridiculous inconsistency in penalties assessed against home teams vs visiting teams.
October 18th, 2018 at 12:00 AM ^
my biggest takeaway were all the holding penalties not called against MSU, #66 was especially egregious. Hope they call them this weekend :-/
October 18th, 2018 at 12:00 AM ^
DP, mobile
October 18th, 2018 at 1:54 AM ^
Based on the Penn State game, I think if we can get some movement on their DTs with double teams Higdon can get some yards against these guys. They didn’t tackle very well in space and while Higdon is not at Sanders’ level of “juke you out of your shoes” I think he can break a few tackles (wrapping up did not look like their strong suit). I think if Sanders gets 8-10 more carries PSU wins that game. On the goal line late it felt like it should have been 4 IZ Reads and Sanders/McSorley dancing in the end zone. Definitely don’t get the 3rd down fade against a 6’3” corner. The only time they stopped Sanders was when MSU’s DTs won double teams and allowed LBs to fly in untouched. If that didn’t happen it was at least 4 yards. PSU is the best rushing offense they’ve faced (#4 S&P+) and we’ll be the second (#12 S&P+). I’m thinking a steady 25 carries 110+ for Higdon and even more if he breaks a long one like Sanders did.
October 18th, 2018 at 9:35 AM ^
Yeah! Shouldn't have watched the defense footage. I now have a bad case of dry mouth and have wasted even more of my employers time by digging into offensive S&P data for Sparty's opponents.
/scary
Maybe I am being overly pessimistic but how do you run at these guys on standard downs? Am I missing something? Can the edges get got?
Someone with more football knowledge than I chime in and kindly talk me off the ledge!
I'll hang up and listen.
October 18th, 2018 at 10:36 AM ^
http://720pier.ru/index.php is a great site by the way, kind of insane that the Russians have the largest torrent library of live american sports on the internet. Da!
You're welcome, Comrade!
October 18th, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^
Wow. First I saw this. No less than 3 passes by Lewerke on the last two drives that almost certainly would have been intercepted by our corners.
October 18th, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^
If history has shown us anything, it is that previous games are not the best barometer of how Dantonio's team play against us. They've certainly got some issues on offense, but they will come out and give us everything they have. Fuck Mork, but you can bet those kids will play their most intense game of the year. Bring it on, and let's start to turn this series around.