Sagarin ratings: Michigan - 25; SDSU- 39

Submitted by ChalmersE on September 18th, 2011 at 10:51 AM
USAToday has updated the Sagarin Ratings. Michigan is up to 25. SDSU is 39; ahead of such schools as Missouri, Maryland, and MSU. Actually SDSu is ahead of both MSU's.

Comments

go16blue

September 18th, 2011 at 12:21 PM ^

They barely beat army, gave up 21 to Cal Poly, and were very close to losing to Washington State until the 4th quarter. Plus, we will know exactly what they run on both sides of the ball (they hired a west coast OC to essentially run the exact same offense), and they wont have nearly the same scouting report on us.

On top of all of that, I think this matchup favors us. Our CBs have looked good (!) so far this year, and they lost their top 2 WRs.  We should be able to match up well man to man against them, allowing us to bring another man into the box to help against the run (i.e. have 2 LBs against a 4 WR set), and blitz a bit more. I'm not too worried.

Tater

September 18th, 2011 at 12:23 PM ^

...but it's not "last season" anymore.  But since you mentioned it first, I would have expected Michigan to win last year or this year.  It just won't be a walk in the park like EMU was.  35-24 sounds about right.  

Muttley

September 18th, 2011 at 5:15 PM ^

Last year SDSU finished the season ranked #34 by Sagarin, while Mich finished #60.

In large, bold type, Sagarin disclaims his current 2011 rankings, stating that the lack of data/games forces him to use beginning assumptions/results from last year.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

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For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight
in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all WELL CONNECTED, then the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal and the RATING, ELO-CHESS, and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
 

The teams are now UN-CONNECTED and so all three ratings are BAYESIAN.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


 

Bluestreak

September 18th, 2011 at 11:27 AM ^

I'd guess around 5 or 6.

Not the usual cup-cake .. they are a bit of a tricky fixture. Though I'd expect Hoke and Borges to know the team inside out. 

I'd predict 28-17 to Michigan

enlightenedbum

September 18th, 2011 at 11:35 AM ^

They struggled mightily with Army and Washington State, yes?  With the dude who recruited them all, I'm not THAT worried.  At least more than I am baseline terrified of all teams considering our defense/Denard's accuracy issues thus far.

ChalmersE

September 18th, 2011 at 11:46 AM ^

Maybe you can say they struggled against Army, but they beat them, which is more than you can say for Northwestern. As for Washington State, they beat a BCS school by 18; a BCS school coming off wins by the scores of 64-21 and 59-7. The latter was against UNLV, who managed a 20 point win over Hawaii yesterday. Hoke's comment that he wished SDSU wasn't on the schedule isn't just coachspeak.

Mr Miggle

September 18th, 2011 at 11:59 AM ^

Hoke would have said the same thing regardless of how good SDSU is. He's not looking forward to facing his former players and coaches. It's a very unusual situation.

SDSU is probably a good team, but they have struggled a bit. They were tied with WSU after 3 quarters. WSU is a BCS school, but they won a total of 5 games over last 3 seasons.

 

bnoble

September 18th, 2011 at 12:11 PM ^

Wazzu has been putrid over the last several years, but is at least giving the impression that it has a pulse this year.  I watched a good chunk of the WSU/SDSU game last night---reasonably well-played.  I didn't stay up late enough to watch SDSU pull away though.

I'm guessing this will be a very competitive game next weekend.

One Inch Woody…

September 18th, 2011 at 12:39 PM ^

I watched most of the big ten games yesterday and it's clear that Michigan's performance was around No.5 in the big 10. Best was Wisconsin, then Illinois, then Michigan State, then Nebraska, then Michigan. I think SDSU will be a close game until the late 3rd/4th quarter.

One Inch Woody…

September 18th, 2011 at 1:17 PM ^

It is true that they could not maintain a steady drive due to their lack of Denard (they couldn't run the ball at all, as a result) and their receivers are, as a whole, far less skilled than our group. But, their performance was, for the most part, due to the dominance of ND's defense and not because of bad play.

Their defense also held ND to under 300 yards which is, quite frankly, amazing.

Playing Michigan is a whole different monster because they will be able to rack up quite a few yards on stretch plays and counters and through the air on slants (unless our front 4 can play like they did against Eastern). But their defense will have their hands full with Hemingway and Gallon.

BlueinTC

September 18th, 2011 at 12:41 PM ^

had 191 yards vs. Washington State.  Yes, WSU is not good, but they are a D1 school.  QB also had 275 yards, but 2 turnovers.  

We have some serious work to do on the run defense, thankfully, Hoke knows these kids well and how to stop them.

This game might be closer than we think.

GRFS11

September 18th, 2011 at 1:46 PM ^

SDSU's 4 losses last year were by a combined 15 points, including playing TCU.  They have to be funamentally sound, even if injured and even if we have Hoke and they don't

RedGreene

September 18th, 2011 at 3:39 PM ^

I think we should just forfeit the game.  SDSU would beat any NFL team by 50.  The SDSU QB will be the number 1 pick in the draft and the RB will be number 2.  I'm not sure what we were thinking scheduling an unbeatable team.  The AD really fucked up.

uminks

September 18th, 2011 at 5:55 PM ^

They will score points on our defense. Hopefully DROB will have a good game passing and the offense will score more points in the first half.

UM 41 SDSU 34

mabrsu

September 19th, 2011 at 8:00 AM ^

Anyone else approaching this as a test for the coaching staff? With the level of familiarity, we should win easily. They are a good team, but coaching SHOULD matter.

We know how well hoke manages the program and recruits. Time to sure the skills in game preparation.

mabrsu

September 19th, 2011 at 8:00 AM ^

Anyone else approaching this as a test for the coaching staff? With the level of familiarity, we should win easily. They are a good team, but coaching SHOULD matter.

We know how well hoke manages the program and recruits. Time to sure the skills in game preparation.

mabrsu

September 19th, 2011 at 8:00 AM ^

Anyone else approaching this as a test for the coaching staff? With the level of familiarity, we should win easily. They are a good team, but coaching SHOULD matter.

We know how well hoke manages the program and recruits. Time to sure the skills in game preparation.

Jorgo

September 19th, 2011 at 8:20 PM ^

Great comments on here gentlemen. I wish we (SDSU) had a reason to hate Hoke. But, you can't hate a straight-talking, no BS Coach that expects, and gets, results. Which for some reason has been especially difficult here in the preceeding years. Look forward to being there. Aztecs have everything to gain, big M has everything to lose. Hoping the football team can take a lesson from our basketball team and step up. ONE TIME! AZTECS! Charlie brown needs to kick lucy in the head, then pick up the ball and punt it himself for once. then kick her again while she's down there for pulling the ball everytime he got close... i'm just sayin.