Pace and rotation adjustments for Michigan BB?
Both Coach Beilein and Coach Howard had very tight rotations 7-8 players. However, I'm seeing more visible fatigue with Howard's team than I saw with Beilein's teams. The offensive inefficiency late in tonight's 2nd half was the product of 6 guys basically playing the entire 2nd half. Save Davis' couple of minutes, the 2nd half was played by Simpson, Teske, Johns, Brooks, Wagner, and DeJulius. Coach Beilein rarely had his rotation THIS tight.
With Coach Howard's emphasis on running a faster paced offense, doesn't it make more sense to get guys more rest, especially early in the half, in order to preserve some freshness after the under 8 minute timeout? Coach Beilein's slower offensive pace helped to limit possessions and preserve the legs of the players in his tight rotations. It also helped the defense because it limited possessions and allowed the players to have more energy for said defensive possessions.
Interesting tidbit - last year's Michigan team surrendered 70+ points in 5 of their 37 games. No team scored more than 78 points against the 2018-19 Michigan team. Coach Howard's team has surrendered 70+ points in more than HALF of their 17 games this year (9). And, they've given up more than 80 points on three occasions.
Here's the question, is it time to expand the rotation to keep guys more fresh late in games? Or, is it time to adjust the offense, slow the pace down to aid the defense and keep guys more fresh late in games? The defense needs help, and there are strategic methods to help (slower pace, more zone). This isn't happening, and the losses in winnable games are piling up.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:18 AM ^
We badly need Livers.
Also, it’s time for Bajema.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:34 AM ^
Time for him to do what?
January 18th, 2020 at 1:23 AM ^
Play over Nunez.
January 18th, 2020 at 6:25 PM ^
He’s getting redshirted, it’s pretty obvious now
January 18th, 2020 at 12:22 AM ^
Tonight was somewhat limited because of all the foul trouble.
It is clear we miss Yaklich (and Matthews and Livers)
January 18th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
We miss Yaklich-amen to that.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:22 AM ^
No need to dig too deep. We aren’t that talented of a team.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:39 AM ^
Spot on. Remove Livers it really shows. Teske & Z best two players. Love what they have done in 4 years for Michigan, but they got tons of flaws in their game.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:40 AM ^
Okay, then slow the pace down? Right?
January 18th, 2020 at 12:49 AM ^
Sure, if your only concern is the number of points allowed. But slowing the pace also decreases the number of points WE score.
We don’t lose games because we allow too many points. We lose games because we don’t score more points than the opponent.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:44 AM ^
Huh?! Any win inherently means the opponent was outscored! But is the concept of outscoring 101-93, or 58-54, like our win to reach the Final Four in 2018?
In the last 10 years, the winning team in the National Title Game has scored <70 points on 5 occasions. You know that you can score more points than the opponent by not allowing the opponent to score so many points.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:33 AM ^
bullshit on that
January 18th, 2020 at 12:23 AM ^
Literally our best and most versatile player has been injured since big ten play resumed. Kinda hard to have a tight lineup with Livers out. When (if?) he's back though, I'd like to see it be kept to only DDJ, Johns, and Davis off the bench. So disappointed in how Castleton has looked this year. Thought he would've been a star under Beilein
January 18th, 2020 at 12:41 AM ^
So, Coach Howard should just stand pat and make no adjustments considering his most versatile player is out? We can't simply let the losses continue to pile up until Livers gets back.
January 18th, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^
What? You want Howard to suit up and go out there?
Michigan has the second best offense in the BIG with Xs deficiencies, Livers out and shit 3 point shooting. What more do you want him to do? He clearly has the Xs and Os chops to get these guys in position to make open baskets.
The defense fall off is on lack of talent and Teske/X falling off from last year. Howard’s recruits will rectify that.
January 18th, 2020 at 7:14 PM ^
The empirical evidence clearly declares that Michigan is in trouble.There are a variety of ways to approach the current situation. Juwan got stuck with this roster-and it has significant holes.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:26 AM ^
ya, you were the guy calling for more nunez PT. no thanks. getting livers back will help a lot. plus, the schedule gets a bit easier.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:38 AM ^
Yeah Nunez tonight was 4 minutes, 3 points, and could have been credited with a block tonight. That's after sitting for the first 16 minutes of the half. Nunez can shoot! Beilein saw it. Howard saw it. Basketball folks can see it. His defense is limited, but the team is giving up big points anyway. Michigan is having trouble with fatigue, how does it hurt to give Nunez 10 minutes per game to get guys some rest. His 4 first half minutes didn't hurt the team. And, why not put him in earlier to establish a rhythm, and maybe get hot from the outside. Once he got warmed up tonight he nailed a 3, and then never got another shot, or even back on the floor. If we can deal with Brooks going 1-15 from behind the arc in the 4 games prior to this one, we can test the hot hand of a kid who got to Michigan because he can shoot and shoot with range.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:44 AM ^
Cuz Brooks won’t cede 12 points single handedly in the process of going 1-6 like Nunez will in his 10 minutes.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:02 AM ^
Nunez airballed 2x 3-point attempts. Do you know how hard that is?!
January 18th, 2020 at 1:24 AM ^
Kid was sitting on the bench for 45 minutes of actual time, and 16 minutes of game time, and you're going to clown him for missing a late shot clock, contested three, and then his second shot shortly thereafter? How about when he had gotten up and down the court a couple of times? Third 3 pointer... SWISH!
I also saw some good defense being played by Nunez tonight. The announcer saw it too, and pointed it out. It's funny, though. This team is giving up points by the bunches, yet Nunez' defense is being called out! The dudes on the court have given up an average of 82.5 ppg in the last 4 games (3 losses), and NUNEZ' can't get on the court because of defense? LOL Y'all too funny!
January 18th, 2020 at 1:36 AM ^
You want Nunez to play upwards to 10-15 min bc you think he just *might* get going even tho we have no evidence in-game that this is possible?
Although we do have evidence that his defense is markedly worse than Brooks and that Brooks CAN unlike Nunez go on tears resulting in 20+ point games?
January 18th, 2020 at 1:54 AM ^
Brooks has had 20+ point games TWICE in about 70 Michigan basketball games! Nunez hit as many 3's today (1) as Brooks had hit with 4x the number of shots in the previous 4 games. Five minutes a half with Nunez isn't going to hurt this team defensively anymore than him not being on court. Hell, the team is giving up 82.5 ppg in the last 4 games (3 losses). The defense can't get much worse. And, actually, it could get better because Nunez' 5 minutes per half could be the buffer against the extreme fatigue that causes defenses lapses late in the game. MSU, Purdue, Minnesota, and Iowa scored at will in the last 4 minutes against Michigan. Maybe a little more rest earlier in the half could have helped the defense.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
In all fairness, one of his "airballs" was a backboard breaker. ?
January 18th, 2020 at 1:34 AM ^
His shooting is not good enough to be a difference maker consistently. He’s below 30% the last time I checked. That’s not going to move the needle unless he gets on a hot streak. Bajema appears to be as good of a shooter if not better. Also Nunez is a big liability on defense... he gets lost all the time., I’m baffled at why Bajema doesn’t play more.
January 18th, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^
Nunez would have trouble in the MAC. Shouldn’t play a lick and be gone next year.
January 18th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
Nunez was -7 in 4 (!) minutes at Minny. And you want to put him in for 10+ minutes? He sucks on offense -- yes, he did luck into a 3 in this game -- and he sucks more on defense.
You have lost all basketball cred by pushing this.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:33 AM ^
The Bahamas are a long time ago. Those early season tourneys with 3 games in 3 days don’t tell you much. Brooks got hit today and DDJ was good, but it wasn’t enough.
Season is looking more like what we thought it would before the Bahamas. It’s a transition season, we should make the tourney still though.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:37 AM ^
Bahamas was misleading because the only good team we beat was Gonzaga and nobody knows in any given year how good they are. They can be a national runner up or a complete joke. We won't know until March. UNC was way overrated, as was Iowa State. Playing Oregon down there would've been interesting though while we were in our hot streak. Slumping majorly on offense when we took them in Ann Arbor
January 18th, 2020 at 12:39 AM ^
Everything we say will have a caveat until Livers is back. My hope is that when he does come back, that other players will also be better for the experience. Brandon Johns is better and so is Wagner. If Livers isn’t back this year, my only hope is an NCAA bid. I don’t care if we get knocked out in the first round, I just want to see us still in the NCAAs for recruiting and Howard.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:43 AM ^
What can happen when a key player comes back after being out several games is the team struggles for a couple games. There’s sometimes a letdown after maybe a half of heightened energy.
It’s a tough year in the conference. No one is going to win 16 games IMO. Get to 12-8 and we’d get a bye in the conference tourney.
January 18th, 2020 at 3:42 AM ^
I think it was encouraging when the announcers mentioned he was going through warmups and shoot around with the team and looking good. Hopefully hell be back in the next couple of weeks.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:45 AM ^
Would be surprised if this team made the tournament. Doesn’t look promising.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:46 AM ^
Besides those 6 you have nunez, castleton, bajema, and davis. Not sure about bajema but the rest are clearly a step below the top 6 so you have to ride your best players and hope for the best.
January 18th, 2020 at 2:18 AM ^
Why are we sucking so hard
January 18th, 2020 at 7:25 AM ^
I don't know how anyone can put this on Juwan Howard. It's talent, plain and simple. This team would struggle with Beilein and Yaklich right now too. Here is why (quotes from NBA.com draft profiles)
Charles Matthews
- " athletic wing who can defend multiple positions"
- "Possesses solid size for a wing measured at 6’6.25 in shoes with an average 6’9.5 wingspan and a wiry strong 195-pound frame"
- "Allowed 0.423 points per Isolation possession [92nd percentile]"
Iggy Brazdekis
- "6’7.25 in shoes with a 6’9.25 wingspan"
- "Plays with energy and intensity defensively."
- "Allowed 0.649 points per Isolation possession[69th percentile]"
Jordan Poole
- "Possesses solid size for a guard measured at 6’5.5 in shoes with an average 6’6.75 wingspan"
- "Allowed 0.565 points per Isolation possession [82nd percentile]"
Isaiah Livers
- 6'7" 230 lbs, athletic wing, can guard 3s or 4s and some stretch 5s.
That is what Beilein and Yak had to work with. Four NBA caliber wings, in terms of height, wingspan, and athleticism. Here is what Juwan has to replace all of that with:
- David Dejulius 6'0 190 lbs - good speed at guard but undersized (especially when playing the 2 alongside Simpson)
- Eli Brooks 6'1 185 lbs - undersized at wing, not fast for a guard.
- Brandon Johns Jr 6'8 235 - too small to guard the 5, not athletic as a 4, too slow to guard at 3.
- Franz Wagner - 6'9 205 - good height and length but underdeveloped. Too slow for guards, too small for the post. Could develop, but young.
So, the expectation is that Howard maintain an elite defense while replacing four legit NBA-caliber wings (who can switch and guard multiple positions) with four guys who struggle go guard one position. That's just absurd in my opinion. It's hard enough with Livers in, it's almost impossible with him out.
January 18th, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
I will 100% put his defensive scheme on him, his substitution pattern, and thinking it’s 1990 playing two big together so an athletic 4 destroys one.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^
Who the hell is he going to substitute? Austin Davis, Adrien Nunez, and Cole Bajema? He's not an idiot, he comes from the Heat's system that uses a deeper rotation than just about any team in the NBA. Beilein didn't want to play any of those guys either, but luckily he had 3 NBA caliber wings to soak up the minutes.
January 19th, 2020 at 5:59 AM ^
You think he wants to play 2 at a time? Here's what he has to pick from at the 4 (with Livers out): Johns Jr, Castleton, Davis, or playing extremely small with Wagner. What would you like him to do?
January 18th, 2020 at 10:25 AM ^
This.
This is what we all knew coming into the season but some somehow forgot.
I'm sure Beilein saw it too.
January 18th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
JB saw the kids that he recruited weren’t talented enough so he left?? Odd way to look at that.
And there is enough talent on this team to win on the road. There has been substitution mis management going on all year.
January 18th, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
Thanks for taking the discussion to points per possession. The post should have started that way (if possible). The problem with your argument is that the PPP described above was done (and dependent upon) playing within the team (Yaklich, 2nd in the nation) system. The difference between Brazdeikis, Poole, and Matthews have to do with each of their talents. Matthews was elite. Poole and Brazdeikis were not.
Just eyeballing, the team looks worn out. Beilein used a monitor during practice so that players would not wear themselves out and could play well for longer minutes. I wonder if that has continued.
Thanks for reading.
January 18th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
Great post!
January 18th, 2020 at 1:13 PM ^
The "system" worked because they could actually match up. They had the size and athleticism to get away with not being skilled defenders. There's a huge difference between having an inexperienced 6' David Dejulius guarding the 2, and a lanky 6'5" Poole with solid athleticism and quickness guarding the 2.
Last year they could afford to put the freshman (Iggy) on the opponent's worst player, because Matthews and Poole were flexible and could guard multiple positions. This year, the freshman (Wagner) pretty much has to guard whatever wing they throw at him, bc Zavier, DDJ, and Brooks are too small to do it.
Also, you want to know why there isn't much helping in the post, and why it isn't effective when they do double? Because there's a huge difference when the help that's coming is 6'6"+ wingspan guys with athleticism like Poole, Matthews, and Iggy -- as opposed to Brooks, Zavier, DDJ, Nunez, etc.. Zavier was helping hard on to Garza last night, and it didn't even bother him. It just led to Zavier picking up more fouls. Throwing a 6' point guard sized player at a post player (which we are loaded with) is hardly the same as sending Livers, Matthews, Iggy, or even Poole.
Juwan could play more guys and maybe the perimeter defense looks a little better, but you'll see some of the worst offense in the country if more than one of Johns Jr, Castleton, Davis, Nunez, or Bajema are playing.
January 18th, 2020 at 2:50 PM ^
Every guard this year minus Nunez is a better defender than Poole. I can’t read this whole thing when you claim Poole was flexible on defense. He was literally the worst defender on the team a guy who went for every pump fake in America
January 19th, 2020 at 6:06 AM ^
He had height, wingspan, and speed. You think opposing wings would rather face a first round NBA pick than having to face Eli Brooks or David Dejulius? Even if he had half the fundamentals, Poole is a better defender, and the metrics support it. It's not like we're just giving up open shots left and right and this is some undisciplined defense. Opposing players are going right through or right over our inferior players most of the time.
January 18th, 2020 at 9:25 AM ^
Livers will help obviously; also I’d play Davis more.
January 18th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
About all we could do was integrate Bajema some. Davis was clearly overmatched, and Nunez has not shown D1 ability.
Without Livers, we are hamstrung quite a bit in substitutions.
January 18th, 2020 at 3:14 PM ^
I didnt even watch last night it was a foregone conclusion they would lose on the road..so disappointed in whats happen to this team..at this rate we are headed to a 8/9 seed IF we even make the torunament.The team is WEAK/SOFT..out coached out physical no enthusiams or grit..I miss John Bellien...at least with his teams they got better each game not WORSE
January 18th, 2020 at 5:28 PM ^
This collection of talent would have a hard time making the tournament with or without Beilein at coach. And he was directly responsible for recruiting all of these non-contributing players. It's not on Howard at all. Since he's gotten here he's done the most important thing that contributes to winning in college basketball -- recruiting blue chips.