OT: Bowl games (December 26 - January 2) - Betting thread
We've reached sort of the second half of bowl season (at least in terms of timeline of games played so far), in which the next bowl season returns at 2:30 today (Bowling Green vs New Mexico St) and then there's 3-5 games played each day starting tomorrow, up until January 2.
Please post your bets you like, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for the second set of bowl slate of games.? I'll start (all lines are from when they were placed):
(Previous week record: 3-2 ; Overall season record: 75-49)
Tuesday, 12/27
Georgia Southern vs Buffalo, 12pm: Georgia Southern -3.5
Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina, 6:45pm: Over 63
Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina, 6:45pm: East Carolina -7
Thursday, 12/29
Texas vs Washington, 9pm: Washington +4
Friday, 12/30
Notre Dame vs South Carolina, 3:30pm Notre Dame -2.5
Saturday, 12/31
Iowa vs Kentucky, 12pm: Iowa -2
Monday, 1/2
Illinois vs Mississippi St, 12pm: Mississippi St (ML)
Penn St vs Utah, 5pm: Over 52
Notable spreads of discussion:
Clemson currently sits as an 5.5 point favorite over Tennessee.
Alabama currently sits as an 6.5 point favorite over Kansas St.
USC currently sits as an 2 point favorite over Tulane.
LSU currently sits as an 14.5 point favorite over Purdue.
Michigan currently sits as an 7.5 point favorite over TCU. Over/Under is 58.5
Georgia currently sits as a 7 point favorite over Ohio St. Over/Under is 62.5
Other lines:
December 26th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
I seems wowish to me that USC and Alabama were each one win away from being in the playoff, but they're narrowly favored over Tulane and KSU....
were I a betting man, I'd gladly take MI and GA, even giving up 7.5 and 7 respectively.
maybe that's why I don't bet, we shall see.
December 26th, 2022 at 4:26 PM ^
The refs will need to put in a lot of work in the off-season of Bama and USC are going to make the playoffs next year. Nicks not used to begging..
December 26th, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
I don't gamble anymore but just a few thoughts...
- I know that the fancy stats LOVE Texas but I am really having a hard time believing that they are going to beat Washington.
- Bama is down this season but I still like them to cover against KSU when only favored by a TD.
- I don't pay any attention to Group of Five teams. Is Tulane really that good? Hard to believe that they are only 2 point dogs against USC.
- LSU away from Baton Rogue has played like ass this year. I can't believe that they are 14.5 point favorites against Purdue. Just seems crazy.
- Georgia is going to demolish OSU. Lay the 7 points and take the Dawgs.
December 26th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^
I agree about the Alabama line. But it also seems one of those “smelly” lines. It moved down from 7 to 6.5 recently, and bookmakers are just begging the betting public to grab Alabama -6.5. Basically what I am saying is I have a feeling that this could be the case of ‘reverse line movement’ in which key ‘sharp’ money has been leaning to Kansas St with the points, bringing and keeping that line down below 7 at the moment. There’s always a chance it could be a head-fake as well (where the sharp betters will hit back on the Alabama side the last minute when betting limits are higher than now), but my guess in the end the shops will be rooting for Kansas St. I’m personally staying away.
December 26th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
USC is banged up as a team. Caleb Williams (QB) may miss game with a hamstring injury. Tulane is legitimate at #22 or so. They are good when they don't beat themselves. I don't know if USC is deep enough to recover but with a few weeks to prepare/heal they may win by 17 or they may lose. And USC's reputation resides in the PAC-12.
December 26th, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^
Overall season record: 75-49
That is extremely impressive. Professional gamblers would give anything to have that record against the spread.
December 26th, 2022 at 3:00 PM ^
Thanks man. It’s been a good season for me. Makes up for my awful NFL betting this season (last year it was vice-versa where I was pretty profitable on nfl but then in the red on CFB) . I hope to finish strong.
As for the semi-final spreads, I may end up putting some action on the Michigan and/or Georgia sides but ultimately may just do some small fun prop bets or alternative lines. When the lines opened up I figured Michigan from -9.5 would go down to -7.5/-8 and that looks like where it’ll probably stay until maybe game day when the betting limits get increased and it could move a little. I thought early on Georgia -7 it’d go over 7, but there seems to be enough action on Ohio St +7 side and bookmakers are comfortable with keeping it at 7 for now.
December 26th, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
I think bowl season betting carries much greater uncertainty and risk because for any team not in the playoff there is really nothing on the line anymore. Players will either sit it out to avoid injury or they will take their foot off the gas a bit. Do you, can you, factor that in?
December 26th, 2022 at 7:04 PM ^
Heck, it was difficult enough 20 years ago to predict who would fail to show up. Now, with all the healthy scratches, the randomness has been doubled.
December 26th, 2022 at 8:42 PM ^
Yeah the motivation factor is huge with bowls. In recent years I tend to wait more to see the full opt out news instead of trying to go for an early stale line that i’d hopefully get CLV on. I also think playing an alternative line is becoming more intriguing in bowl and due to if you like a favorite they tend to win *big* and can cover an an alternative ‘plus money’ spread also.
December 26th, 2022 at 10:51 PM ^
I suppose it's easy to say in retrospect, but I think there are spots where one can fairly accurately assess an overall team's motivation for a given Bowl game.
Couple examples from a week ago Saturday: (1) Louisville vs. Cincinnati, Cardinal players would be mad that their former coach left for the team they're playing - they would "want to show him." (2) Fresno State vs. Washington State, FSU always plays w/ a chip on their shoulder vs. P5 teams. And they got WSU in a sunny locale, a relatively new stadium, and an easy day-trip from the Central Valley (SoFi) - so they had a whole bunch of fans at the game.
Looking ahead to some future games, I like KU, Wisky and S Carolina for these motivation reasons (KU and S Carolina are both underdogs):
- Kansas vs. Arkansas. KU hasn't been Bowling in forever and their fans will be excited for this one. And they get a shot at an "SEC scalp." Arkansas, meanwhile was a Top 10 team in mid-September and had heady dreams. It's been a disappointment since then and that could continue into the Liberty Bowl.
- Wisconsin vs. OK State. Last game for Jim Leohnard - though Fickell will be there on the sideline. An opportunity to send him out on a high note while also proving themselves to their new coach. OK State is a bit like Arkansas - they were Top 10 as recently as October 29th (!!) but fell to this. Hard to see them excited. Tons of Wisconsin snowbirds live in Arizona so the Badgers will have fans here.
- South Carolina vs. Notre Dame. Tennessee, Clemson and ND would be one hell of a triumvirate of scalps for a program like South Carolina to end the season on. They get a chance in a spot very close to home. Gator Bowl is 500 tickets from a sell-out, has to be mostly Gamecock fans.
December 26th, 2022 at 3:44 PM ^
As someone who doesn’t pay a lot of attention to college football in the month of December, it’s really hard to know who is playing, who’s transferred, who’s declared, etc… in order to make a guess at these spreads.