Next year's NFL draft: any one on M roster a possible first rounder?
From TTB's scholarship count article, here is a list of M players eligible to be drafted next year (scholarship players only).
I see these players have potentials to be first rounder, provided they have a really good 2012-2013 season.
- Roy Roundtree
- Denard Robinson
- William Campbell (!)
- Fitzgerald Toussaint
- Taylor Lewan
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Roster:
REDSHIRT SENIORS = 8 (Final season 2012)
WR Roy Roundtree
TE Brandon Moore
OG Ricky Barnum
OG Elliott Mealer
OG Patrick Omameh
LB Kenny Demens
CB J.T. Floyd
S Jordan Kovacs
SENIORS = 5 (Final season 2012)
QB Denard Robinson
RB Vincent Smith
DE Craig Roh
DT William Campbell
S Brandin Hawthorne
REDSHIRT JUNIORS = 9 (Final season 2013)
RB Fitzgerald Toussaint
WR Jeremy Gallon
OT Taylor Lewan
OT Michael Schofield
DT Quinton Washington
LB Cameron Gordon
The only one on your list I see having any real possibility is Taylor Lewan.
If (and a big "if") Will Campbell lives up to his potential, which is possible given the amount of coaching he has been getting, he could break onto the scene big-time. Unlikely, but he has the physical tools to be an NFL defensive lineman.
Look at your headline bar: "If (and a big "if") Will"
You could've stopped the post right there. Truer words have never been spoken
April 29th, 2012 at 10:47 AM ^
Good point. I was too busy looking at the picture to notice the headline bar.
April 29th, 2012 at 11:15 AM ^
April 29th, 2012 at 11:25 AM ^
i would be happy if campbell can even come close to being as good as will carr, and i don't think he was even drafted.
hell, alan branch wasn't drafted until the 2nd round and he was a great player. gabe watson was a 4th round pick and he started most of his college career.
April 29th, 2012 at 11:29 AM ^
The Safety from ND was drafted in the first round of this year draft and honestly he's not any better than Kovacs. It's mainly about what a team needs and a player fits thats need. A lot of team showed they aren't afraid to reach to get the players they want.
Right or not, NFL teams draft based on potential. Harrison Smith ran a 4.5 at the combine. Kovacs isn't going to run anywhere near a 4.5.
Because they're both white safeties with less than elite speed? No. First of all, Harrison Smith is several inches taller than Kovacs, and yes, that matters. He also has more range and is a better overall athlete. Harrison Smith's athleticism is about at the edge of what you can get away with in the NFL with football intelligence and good instincts. Jordan Kovacs, unfortunately, does not have the athletic ability it takes to play in the NFL. It just isn't happening. Could someone take a flyer on him in the 7th or sign him undrafted, sure. But he's not going to be high on anyone's draft board. And before anyone says "Jim Leonhard" - the guy ran a 4.4.
Also, with the rookie salary cap. A lot more teams will take those kind of risks with first rounders. BTW, He was actually a pretty good player. I don't care for the man, but i am not a blind homer for my favorite college.
April 29th, 2012 at 11:59 AM ^
or touissant if he really explodes. Let's hope not, though
Maybe he wants him to stay another year.
I want Fitz to have a breakout year and exceed his goals. Kids leaving early for the draft because they are high draft picks is not a bad problem to have.
there was one guy drafted this year in the 1st round that had 2 sacks in his entire career..... so they don't necessairly draft on production.....if people are that dumb, then BWC could have been a 1st rounder THIS YEAR!
Dontari Poe was drafted in the first round pretty much entirely on his combine numbers. Now, one thing big Will has never been short on is athleticism. If he has a decent year, then goes into the combine and impresses, which is entirely possible, then he could be a first rounder. On the d-line more than any other position the nfl drafts on potential and athleticism. These are two things Will most definetly has.
April 29th, 2012 at 11:13 AM ^
But if he can't improve his pad level after 4 years of college coaching, what would convince NFL teams that they can do better?
That's what I was thinking too. I think there's a more plausible explanation that Poe's lack of production was because of lack of coaching at Memphis, but after 2 years of Mattison, Hoke, Montgomery coaching, it's going to be tough to argue that the BWC hasn't hit his ceiling yet.
April 29th, 2012 at 12:36 PM ^
Also, it seemed like a weak draft for DT's.
Jordan Kovacs, after winning the first ever UltraHeisman award (which the Heisman Trust will be forced to create after the standard Heisman trophy is destroyed... by Jordan Kovacs).
Toussaint and Denard maybe 10-15%
Lewan 30%
April 29th, 2012 at 10:04 AM ^
Agree on Roundtree. That one didn't make any sense as he will never have the measurables to be a 1st round draft pick. He lacks size, speed, jumping ability. He doesn't even have very good hands. Junior Hemmingway overachieved at the combine and he barely snuck into the draft at the end of the 7th round. It is much more likely for Roundtree to go undrafted than to be a first round pick.
I'd say Toussaint's chances are pretty low as well. The NFL has devalued the running back position and you are starting to see that in the draft as well. After Richardson, the only two RBs taken in the first round were the last 2 picks. Easily could have been second rounders.
April 29th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^
that Tree is an absolute burner, but the dude is shifty and knows how to sit down in zones. Possession WRs are being placed at a higher value than your average straight line jump ball guys, mostly because of the West Coast philosophy.
The ideal WR is the WR with a quick first step and insane start and stop. Solid understanding of routes and even recognition of coverages for those option routes. Every once in a while a freak comes along who has both the top end speed and the quick twitch (AJ Green) but they are rare.
Plus, Tree blocks. Alot. And he hasn't bitched in the slightest about dropping numbers of targets. That will be a difference from a majority of WRs.
April 29th, 2012 at 12:41 PM ^
That still won't get him into the first round. NFL teams tend to be willing to play WR that bitch (see TO), but they are less hesitant to play WR that can't outrun the DB's or consistently catch the ball. I like Roundtree and your are right that he has shiftiness and knows how to find openings in zones from the slot. As I said yesterday, he like Hemingway could be a niche WR-a 3rd or 4th guy finding holes in zones and losing LBs from the slot. However, 1st round WR's are the premiere WR in the draft. There is probably 0% chance he could go in the 1st round. Nonetheless, he could find a home in the 6th or 7th round.
Exactly. If you look at the first round WRs taken over the past 5 years, Tree doesn't compare physically even close to any of them. Doesn't mean he can't be a productive NFL WR, but he won't be considered until Saturday of the draft.
but how can someone overachieve at the combine? I can see having an off day but not overachieving. It seems likely that his combine is possibly a better reflection of his NFL potentail than his college career that featured less than stellar QB play, 2 different offenses, and injuries.
April 29th, 2012 at 12:07 PM ^
yea. unfortunate. I just do not see roundtree getting a shot (especially given how tough it was for hemingway to get a spot AT ALL)
April 29th, 2012 at 12:09 PM ^
denard is 100% going to be drafted. UNless you mean 10% at QB, then yea. I'd even go lower than 10, unfortunately
April 29th, 2012 at 12:17 PM ^
10% in the first round.
Unless Roy shows significant improvement this year, I think it's likely...or at least plausible.. he won't be drafted at all.
If Denard has an RG III like season then he could. Other than that Lewan or BWC have a slight chance if they dominate.
Denard will be a first rounder, but as a receiver. He has some height, speed, and ultra quickness and acceleration. Perfect wr prospect
You don't take a converted QB in the first round who's 6', 185 and has never played the position before.
There are plenty of fast guys who are 6', 185 and played WR for 3-4 years in college. In fact, there was a run on that type of played in the last 3rd, early 4th round this year. And again, you're talking guys who play WR in college, not coverted QBs.
The draft expert, Mel Kiper, predicted that if Denard entered the draft this year, he would be the #1 receiver on the board, drafted before Justin Blackmon. While I may not always agree with Mel, many NFL teams seem to take his word as though it were gold. DRob is a first round prospect at WR, even without ever playing a down at the position.
Because he currently doesn't have Denard at the top of his board anymore. Terrence Williams from Baylor is the #1 WR on his board. Robert Woods from USC is also eligible after this year.
The last I saw, Kiper had Shoelace as his #4 or #5 WR.
I'm not saying it absolutely can't happen...I'd never put that on Denard after seeing him do things many thought could never happen. However, with his size...I just don't see ANYONE taking a converted QB who hasn't played a down at WR.
I'm not going solely off the "never played WR" either...#1 WR's in the league are typically bigger guys. Look at the #1 WRs drafted over the past 5-10 years. Steve Smith and Hines Ward are the only two #1 guys that come to mind that have had continued success in the league. Both were taken in the 3rd round.
He'll find a place in the league, no doubt about that.
Roundtree will be lucky to get drafted - Hemingway much more productive and bigger and lucky to latch on.
Steve Breaston who was superior to Roundtree was a 5th round pick. He is probably the player most comprable to Denard ex straight line speed from UM the past few years. Denard has zero experience at WR, who knows what kind of hands he has for catching - no one knows. He more than anyone will need to flash at combines and pro days as WR to show he has that skill set. Everyone assumes an "athlete" can play WR - probably easier for most athletes to turn into DBs than WRs. He could be a change of pace scat back as well because we know he can run.
As for big Will - gosh he needs to have a Fairley type of season to get into the first round. He lacks the inner motor or he'd be on the field 2 years ago. And as someone else says he has THREE DL coaches now... if they cant develop him or motivate him, he is a lost cause.
Lewan with a monster year would be the best chance, and that would have to include a game shutting down his nemeis from Sparty, Mr Gholston. :)
listen to Kiper, McShay or Mayock? No, just no.
Mel Kiper is the absolute worst. He talks out of both sides of his mouth so that no one can say he's wrong about a player. Also, if you watch his "best available" once the draft gets past the middle of the first round or so, the same names often stick there for about 50 picks. If he was truly as great a scout as he thinks he is, he'd be in an NFL war room, not on ESPN.
He makes more money where he's at. And no one can fire him.
Matt Jones was drafted in the first round. Randle El was drafted in the 2nd, Hines Ward was drafted in the 3rd. It's not common but it will happen from time to time.
Matt Jones is 6'6, 240...and he ran a 4.3 at the combine. He also played some WR in college ala Ryan Tannehill.
Randle-El is a good comparison, Ward did everything in college, but I can see that as well.
Devin Hester has had moderate success as a receiver, but he was a corner in college. It seems to me like the speed and size comparison would be the closest there.
April 29th, 2012 at 10:09 AM ^
I rather think he's been a bust as a receiver. Best kick/punt returner in NFL history, but ---despite having all the tools and potential to drool over, he has never produced much as a receiver.
April 29th, 2012 at 10:18 AM ^
In 08 he was ok, with 665 yards, but in 2009 he would have broken 1000 yards if he played all 16 games. Instead he finished with 13 YPC and 757 yards.
This is all while playing out of position. Hester would have had much more success as a slot, but the Bears insisted he be the #1 receiver. This was also when he was catching passes from Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton.
April 29th, 2012 at 11:18 AM ^
A perfect arguement for those saying Denard is a #1 WR...
April 29th, 2012 at 11:07 AM ^
The "Hines Ward played QB at Georgia" draft meme needs to die. It gets brought up everytime someone wants to make a case for their teams QB-to-WR conversion. Ward played some QB during his sophmore season but that was it. He finished up as Georgia's second all time leading receiver with 149 catches for 1,965 yards.
Matt Jones went in the first round (which was a terrible pick in a terrible draft) because he was willing to go to the Senior Bowl as a WR and played very well. So far Denard seems like he's more likely to take the Pat White "I'm a QB and that's it" route, which won't help his stock. If he's willing to work as a WR at the senior bowl and plays well, he could go in the first. If he's not willing or doesn't play well at the position, he won't.
Highly doubt that Denard will take the Pat White route. Of course Denard is completely committed to QB now because that's where he helps Michigan the most. As soon as the season is over, he'll do what's best for him as a professional.
The Pat White comparison doesn't stick - White had a lot more success throwing the ball than Denard and was a less talented runner. Plus the wildcat was en vogue when White came out. Right on about Ward / Matt Jones though.
There are a lot of fast players. We've had quite a few. Was Denard clearly faster than Carlos Brown or Michael Shaw, for example?
Denard is incredibly dangerous with the ball in his hands in space. We've had AC, not sure anyone else compares. The NFL is going to salivate over the prospect of getting the ball in his hands. He doesn't project to outside WR, but teams will watch him at the combine and Michigan's pro day. If he shows good hands, he'll go very high. They aren't very many true game changers and Denard is definitely one.
There are a lot of fast players. We've had quite a few. Was Denard clearly faster than Carlos Brown or Michael Shaw, for example?
Yes. And I'm not just saying that to promote the Denard = dilithium meme, but, well, there is a reason that meme exists.
I won't say Denard won't get taken in the first round, because he's got the kind of freakish athleticism that sometimes makes an NFL GM swoon and do funny things. But if he does go it'll be the kind of pick that has the guys at the desk kind of shaking their head and making funny noises that mean "I don't want to rip this pick because that would be mean but seriously that was a silly thing to do." Like they did with Bruce Irvin. Denard doesn't fit the mold of what teams usually do with first-rounders.
April 29th, 2012 at 10:07 AM ^
The day Al Davis passed away, Denard's draft stock took a serious hit...