My 2010 UM Prediction UPDATED

Submitted by RationalMSUfan on May 3rd, 2010 at 3:19 PM

Ok. I don't think I will make many friends with the post, but it's a boring time of year and at least it could be fun.

I should start out by saying that my first prediction is that Rich Rod will be fired after this year and Captain Comeback Jim Harbaugh will come in on a white horse and attempt to lead the largest comeback of his career.  The underlying rationale for my season prediction is your defense. I expect that regardless of the QB, UM will score some points and have an above average offense in the Big Ten. However, I am not buying that a defense that has been flat out awful in RRod's first two years will somehow get betting losing Brandon Graham and D. Warren.  I am not buying the Will Campbell Kool-Aid.  I think Mike Martin is your only "proven" plus player on defense.  I think and Craig Roh are proven "serviceable" Big Ten players. I don't mean servicable in a bad way, I mean in it a "you can count on them way".  I see Floyd, Ezeh, as Kovacs "minus" players and the rest as ?????.

This is not meant to be a flame either, just a sobering perspective from an outsider not looking at things thru maize and blue glasses.  If I turn out to be wrong, I will come back and face the music.

Without further ado,

Uconn - Loss - (0-1) I'm sure when this game was put on the schedule, it was supposed to be a nice appetizer for a traditionally powerful UM as a tuneup for the Notre Dame game.  Instead, this game is a legitimate toss up. I don't know the early line, but I suspect it will be within a FG either way.  UConn returns a ton of starters from a team that beat USC (not that USC) in their bowl game last year.  UConn is not flashy, but they have a solid team and a solid coach.  I expect talk radio to be going crazy following this one.

@ Notre Dame - Loss - (0-2) I know Michigan won this game last year, but I thought Notre Dame actually was the better team that day (I realize I may be in the minority with that opinion).  I also think that Brian Kelly is a damn fine coach.  Notre Dame will be breaking in a new QB, but they still have Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph to ease the transition. Had anyone heard of Tony Pike before Brian Kelly?  Kelly also won the Big East with 3 different starting QB's three years ago.  He will have his offense ready and the game is in South Bend. I expect a similar shootout, will the home team pulling it out again.

Umass - Win -(1-2).

Bowling Green - Win - (2-2). 

@ Indiana - Win - (3-2, 1-0) So, the rabid dogs are still rabid, but have been pacified by blowout wins over inferior opponents.  Now hope is renewed with the Big Ten opener. I DO NOT think this game will be easy, as UM cannot just rubber stamp any big ten road game having lost @ Illinois last year.  Also, Indiana put up a fight in the Big House last year.  With that said, I expect Michigan to have too much offense for Indy to hang with and Michigan to pull away late and win by 7-14 points.

MSU - Loss - (3-3, 1-1) Like the Angel of the Big House, I too believe that this will be the biggest game of the Rich Rod era to date.  Under my scenerio, the natives will be restless having lost to Uconn and Notre Dame.  However, a win against MSU and Rich Rod would be 2-0 in the Big Ten and the momentum meter would be pointing in the right direction.  Alternatively, a 3rd straight loss to f'ing MSU and Rich Rod may be facing an in-season dismissal. I know some do not consider MSU a rival, but I think that position is ridiculous. I understand and acknowledge that we may not be your 1st or 2nd rival, but I just don't believe any UM fan that claims he/she would not be stinging from a 3rd straight loss to MSU more so than say Illinois, Wiscy, Iowa or Minny.

Back to the game.....I think we are a better football team than UM.  Sorry for that opinion.  I'm sure UM fans look at last year's game and say we needed OT to win at home.  I tend to look at the first 3.5 quarters of the game and see total domination.  I'm not saying my opinion is correct, but I guess we will find out in October.  I think our offense, while not the spread, will be dynamic this year. We have multiply playmakers at WR, a strong stable of TE's and I'm expecting an improvement from our true freshman RB's.  OL is the only concern on offense.  I acknowlege it is a large concern.  Any any event, I predict an MSU win and this loss will probably be the one that signifies the end of the Rich Rod era

Iowa - Loss (3-4, 1-2) - Iowa is a team that seems to play better on the road.  Their defense will be nasty and I think Clayborn is one of the top 2 defensive players in the Big Ten. For the record, I don't think Greg Jones is No. 1. That award goes to Clayborn/Heyward IMO.  Anyways, I think Iowa is good. They don't seem to blow anybody out, but I think they will win.

@ PSU - Loss - (3-5, 1-3) - I always take the position that good defense beats good offense.  I think PSU will struggle to break in a new QB, but playing at Happy Valley,  I think Newsome (or whoever wins the job) just needs to be ok to win.  PSU dismantled UM last year (us too) and this year the game is at home.

Illinois - Win - (4-5, 2-3) - I think this is the year you slay the Illinois dragon. I think they will absolutely blow this year. No Benn, Zook can't coach, game in Ann Arbor.  UM gets an easy win here.

@ Purdue - Loss - (4-6, 2-4) - I know I am not making any friends and I do think Danny Hope is a prick, but playing @ Purdue was never easy even for the good Michigan teams. I see 3 straight losses to Purdue in Rich Rod's future. Another reason for his dismissal.

Wiscy - Win - (5-6, 3-4) - Playing to save Rich's job, I think you guys pull this one out.  But too little too late.

@ OSU - Win - (5-7, 3-5) - Beat OSU maybe keep your job is the rallying cry for this one, but it aint happening. OSU's defense is great and Pryor is getting better.  This day will sting, but at least it will bring an end to the RRod era and healing/re-birth can begin.

 

[mod edit: he would like to add the following. he made it a separate post but no need]

 

Gents,

I see I ruffled some feathers.  Not my intent.  I do find it funny that predicting 5-7 is somehow crazy and automatic troll.

For the record, I had a typo.  Martin was my plus player. RVB and Roh were my solid players.

Also, just because a guy is a starter does not make them a "plus" player IMO.

We've had plenty of 2-3 year starters that were not plus players.

 

I've read enough about Ezeh to conclude he is not a plus player, no matter how  many years he started.

 

Also, seasons RARELY go by the chalk.  So yes, losing to purdue but beating Wiscy dosn't make sense on paper, but isn't that what happened in 2008?

 

Like I said, I will be back when the dust settles.  If you guys go 8-4, I'll come back and say I was wrong.  So nobody on this board thinks 5-7 is possible? Wow.

 

Take care,

Still RationalMSUfan

Comments

Geaux_Blue

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:24 PM ^

so many people "loved" a rational opposing fan that now he has to make a new thread every time he comes on here to "rationally" explain how UM will make zero progress and lose to 7 teams next year. of course MSU will go 9-3 according to this poster.

to the OP - you obviously pride yourself on being reasonable and come on here to 'try to discuss the issues' but not every offering has to be a new post. Irish doesn't do it. various Buckeyes don't. you don't either. try being a 'member' of the board instead of trying to imply some statesmanship and a constant demand for attention by making a new post every time. shit wouldn't fly if an mgoblog member did it on RCMB - why are you doing it here?

WolvinLA2

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^

There is little rational in this post, sorry.

EDIT:  Also - does this mean that RVB, Woolfolk, and Mouton are ??? players?  Even though they're returning starters in their 4th (or 5th) season in the program?  You know enough about our program to sound rational, but you don't know enough to give a true analysis.

Kvothe

May 3rd, 2010 at 5:24 PM ^

that many of our returning starters are "minus" or ??? players but he fully expects their freshmen running backs to be producers.  So much for following the same line of logic.  He has stated that he doesn't bye into the Big Will(or freshmen) hype because he hasn't seem them on the field yet it is different with MSU's incoming players.  Plus, who are all the great "playe makers" at the WR position?

WolvinLA2

May 3rd, 2010 at 6:47 PM ^

I agree, and the fact that 2 of his 3 minus players (and maybe all three) might not even be starters this fall.  Even though one of his minus players made the freshman all-Big Ten last year as well as second team freshman all-american.   And we have 3 returning starters that are ???.  I understand giving a guy who hasn't had a lot of PT the ??? treatment, but 3 returning starters?

Jensencoach

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^

but any chance of you being rational left when you decided that ND's quarterback situation would be anything but turbulent by week 2.  It looks like you worked hard on this but you lost me after your ND analysis.

 

EDIT: First poster beat me to it

Bosch

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:29 PM ^

was added to the schedule last year. 

To me, this oversite overshadows any rationale you tried to bring to your opinion since you used it as a knock on the Michigan AD and their scheduling.

DesHow21

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:58 PM ^

1. If you had simply reversed your ND (Zero QB ) and UConn (RRs historical ownage of huskies) picks, it would have been huge in terms of your credibility in evaluating teams.

2. I think you meant to say Loss for the OSU game.

3. I don't see how "our defense will blow" and we beat Wiscy (the team best suited to rail-road us into submission with power running). You can't just make up assumptions and abandon them halfway.

That being said, MSU is indeed going to be the better team this year. I am just hoping as hell we play out of minds and pull this one off.

Twisted Martini

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:32 PM ^

Whip that Buckeye ass twice on the same day.  Show up early for the Indiana game and beat them Friday night.  And beat Central after Sparty loses to them (again.)

blueblueblue

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:34 PM ^

The evidence:

1) We are tired of posts predicting UM's w/l record by our own fanbase or even by the "experts"

2) We do not like folks from other teams making agenda-laden posts, i.e., trolls (e.g., Irish walks the non-troll line well)

3) You, from another team, made an agenda-laden post predicting next-season's w/l record

 

Conclusion: You are currently a troll. Go away for a while. Come back later. Post better. 

Geaux_Blue

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:34 PM ^

We have multiply playmakers at WR, a strong stable of TE's and I'm expecting an improvement from our true freshman RB's.  OL is the only concern on offense.  I acknowlege it is a large concern.

Uhhhh. What multiple playmakers are at WR? Playmakers implies dynamic game changers. Dantonio had to move a QB to the WR position in order to flesh out the roster. The amount of looks Nichols get reflects the LIMIT at the position, not the depth. Further, having a "Stable" of TEs is worthless unless you put 5 out at a time. You took a WR and made him a FULLBACK. And the only concern on offense is OL? You know, the thing that allowed and assisted your Freshman RBs to play as well as they did? The OL is EVERYTHING. It's why UM was even worse than their qbs played in 08 and why, in 09, UM was better. It's also why in '10 UM will be even better.

Tell me, what dynamic elements of UConn's defense implies that they will be able to slow UM down? What's more, with their decimated offensive line and a lack of true returning RB the likes of an heir apparent, why, aside from the loss of Graham, would the UM defense not be able to more properly contain the Husky offense? Or is your analysis solely based on the "LOL UM LOL" meme that finds UConn considerable? Remember who else was supposed to beat UM last year? WMU.

You've built up a board presence by toeing a line and not falling into Spartan Tailgate-level "we're better, suck it"ness. But this post just shows all you're in it for is the attention. Try posting in general topic threads about the Big Ten. There's about 9000. That doesn't interest you, though, because it's not about you. Also a Loss @Purdue but a win at home against Wisconsin is a joke.

There's absolutely zero 'expert' analysis on here. The fact I understand the complexities of these games and Big Ten rosters better than you shows two things: (1) I would never dream of trying to describe my 'prediction' in the vein that it would come off as me thinking I'm an expert and (2) you never should have.

Six Zero

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:42 PM ^

that Geaux Blue is more knowledgeable about Spartan personnel than Mr. Rational himself?  Or should we cut him some slack, since he's been so busy over here professing his expertise on all things maize and blue?

Geaux_Blue

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:49 PM ^

it's always a losing battle. I married a Spartan and she's learned that she can know absolutely NOTHING about MSU and still get under my skin by bringing up if they win/beat UM, etc. and when I try to point out a UM loss she's able to fully embrace the "i don't care anyways." eventually I'm left screaming "LLOYD CARR IS A BRILLIANT MAN!"

sadly i would also assert i probably do know more about MSU's roster than this guy. not UFR-level... but definitely enough.

FYI that dane cook sketch is my home to a t.

BlueinOK

May 3rd, 2010 at 4:08 PM ^

Yeah I agree.  How is MSU's offense going to be so great?  The running game is going to take a step back with an inexperienced OL, and the passing game lost Blair White.  I think by playmakers he means punch throwers in term of how to describe the WRs.

TrppWlbrnID

May 3rd, 2010 at 5:36 PM ^

is it dumber than me saying that i hope our two linebackers who were not very good last year will be better after learning a new system and having more youth and inexperience in back and in front of them?

i really hope they will be better, but to admit a scenario where they are not based on what we have seen so far is not dumb.

Geaux_Blue

May 3rd, 2010 at 5:40 PM ^

considering his analysis is entirely based upon MSU developing in full while UM staying stagnant in some ways and becoming worse in others (DEFENSE IS DEAD GRAHAM IS GONE GERG DIED FOR OUR SINS), he has a slanted view. your view is one that breeds optimism that also accepts equivalent development in other teams. your view would reflect on the MSU situation and say that the running game at MSU might develop with the RBs being a year stronger, etc. however it would also include their O-Line being cut in half - an O-Line, mind you, that wasn't very sound last year to begin with.

 

see the problem with the above analysis is that it cherry picks where it sees development. development or continued success thrives in teams like PSU, MSU, UConn, etc. UM only suffers regression and TEH APOCALYPSE.

snowcrash

May 3rd, 2010 at 6:32 PM ^

Any MSU player improving or UM player stagnating is individually plausible, but it's much less likely that collectively their guys will progress and ours won't. I think he also makes the mistake of reading too much into last year's UM-MSU game, which was our worst offensive performance of the year. It reminds me of the Iowa fans who dismissed UM going into the 2003 season, after we had laid an egg against them in 2002.

I look at MSU this year and I basically see us, but with more questions on the OL. Good returning QBs (theirs were a bit better last year, but ours are on the steeper part of the learning curve), good receivers, so-so RBs, decent run defense, bad pass defense. I think our run defense will be much improved even though Graham is gone: Campbell should be a fine space-eater, Roh won't be too small to play his position, Martin and Van Bergen should be stronger and won't be playing out of position, Ezeh and Mouton should be better under Robinson's coaching.

A few other nits to pick: UConn is a somewhat favorable matchup for us since they are a running team, and I wouldn't bet on ND's new QB being able to exploit our weak pass defense behind a mostly new OL in only their second game in a new offensive system.

 

Six Zero

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:35 PM ^

right up until you said Craig Roh was a "serviceable" Big Ten player.  Serviceable Big Ten players are like Brandon Englemon or DeWayne Patmon.

Hope you like your crow with extra eyebrows...

joeyb

May 3rd, 2010 at 3:36 PM ^

Damn, I was just thinking about posting a "Why we will go undefeated in 2010" thread in true off-season fashion. I guess that wouldn't be rational in light of this thread. I suppose I'll just have to wait until next week.