Daily Bracketology update: Potential Duke re-match?!

Submitted by Sambojangles on March 5th, 2012 at 10:41 AM

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

On Lunardi's most recent bracket we are still a 3 seed, currently sitting in the East region with Syracuse on the top line and Duke as the 2. Vanderbilt is the 6 in our pod, which I hope changes between now and the tournament, since they will have a huge advantage in the Nashville location he assigns us to.

Assuming we can get through Northwestern to the Semis of the BTT and (probably) another game against Ohio, I don't see how we fall below a 3. Also, assuming Ohio and MSU are pretty solid 2 seeds, the tournament committee won't put us in the same region so there is no intra-conference game in the Sweet 16. My point here is that if Duke stays as a 2 seed, we have about a 50-50 chance of seeing them in the Sweet 16, if both teams make it through. I think fans of both schools would love another game, and we will want to avenge the loss in the tournament last year and in Hawaii at the beginning of the season this year.

Obviously it's a long week between now and Selection Sunday, and things will change. But, this might be an intriguing story to watch as it gets closer.

Comments

mGrowOld

March 5th, 2012 at 10:45 AM ^

It's a little know fact that on the wall of the room where the selection committee meets sits a large poster that reminds them "At all costs if Michigan is in the field they MUST meet either Duke or North Carolina by the third game".

Not sure why that is but they've done a good job enforcing it.

Needs

March 5th, 2012 at 11:15 AM ^

I think the only way we'd get a 2 is if we win the tournament and beat both MSU and OSU. Only one and I think we end up the highest rated 3 (which still would mean either Duke or Missouri as our 2). Maybe if we beat OSU and Wisconsin in the finals (which would likely result in the Big 10 having 2 2-seeds and 2 3-seeds).

If we could get to a 2, it would be really advantageous. Instead of seeing Missouri or Kansas in a potential sweet 16 matchup, we'd be seeing Baylor, G'town, or Marquette, if current seedings held. Not only are those teams better matchups for us (I'd rate each game a pure toss-up, likely determined by how well THJ shoots, whereas Duke and Mizzou could beat us even if we play well), but they each stand a decent chance of not making it out of their pod.

Mr. Yost

March 5th, 2012 at 1:40 PM ^

It would take a team that is on the 4-5 line winning their conference championship.

However, I think we need to WIN all 3 games to move to a 2. Beating Ohio and losing to State in the B1G Tourney doesn't really scream "we're better than those teams!" In the polls it would likely keep us right where we are, just boost our SOS.

Mr. Yost

March 5th, 2012 at 11:00 AM ^

Hopefully this changes...

Davidson is a good team too...that would be a HELL region.

The best part about this is this is conference championship week and usually seeds #3-7 are most affected by championship week.

Teams lose early or get hot and make it to the conference championship game (like Michigan could do)...and the seeding is shuffled accordingly.

So it may be GOOD that we're currently slotted with a tough road...because it'll like completely different a week from now. A New Mexico, Vandy, SDSU, etc. could get hot and move up or lose early and fall.

From everything I've heard we're locked into a 3-seed unless we win the B1G Tournament Championship. There is a shot we could get to a 2-seed just by getting to the championship, but it would require Duke or Mizzou to lose their first game.

bacon1431

March 5th, 2012 at 10:52 AM ^

Not to be Buzz Killington (sorry for the poster with this name), but there is no point at looking at the matchups in any bracketology update. Rarely do they get any placements right. Lunardi gets most of the teams right (I think most should be able to after all the CCG are completed), but he's not going to get as many seedings and placement on the bracket correct. That said, I would love to lay a beatdown on Duke's ass. We're due for one. Bitches.

tommya14

March 5th, 2012 at 10:59 AM ^

If Vanderbilt is not a top 4 seed then they will not be playing in their hometown.  Committe will not give a worse seed a home court advantage over higher seeded team. 

CdubGoBlue

March 5th, 2012 at 11:09 AM ^

If it's not at Memorial Gym with the benches under the baskets, there would not be a decided home court advantage for Vanderbilt IMO.  Considering the way that UM fans travel and the amount of them that live in/near Nashville (including me), that gym would be 50/50 if not more Blue.  Vandy fans are lacking even in the home city...and the SEC is terrible this year outside of UK. 

That said, there's a long weekend of hoops still to play. 

Go Blue!

jmblue

March 5th, 2012 at 11:34 AM ^

I'm getting a little tired of playing Duke.  Yeah, it makes for a marquee game, but I'd like to play someone else in the regionals.

Tshimanga Cowabunga

March 5th, 2012 at 12:51 PM ^

I want to face Missouri more than Duke. They play small like we do. While we have had some trouble with fast teams (see Arkansas), we play good enough D to contest 3's and are willing to give up o-boards to prevent fast breaks.  I would much rather go up against a small, quick team that relies on 3's and off ball movement than a complete team like Duke that can throw 3 good big guys at us.  I still think if Hardaway and Smot are on then we can beat any team in the country (except maybe Kentucky)

Sons of Louis Elbel

March 5th, 2012 at 1:03 PM ^

It's an odd situation for us, as far as our chances of moving to a 2. Better for our resume to beat the best teams (MSU and OSU), but they're more likely to drop if they lose early. I guess we need to root for Mizzou to lose early in their tournament, but it'd still be a longshot. Ditto for Duke.