Beilein Sorcery or Desperate Heave

Submitted by RealJabrill on April 28th, 2014 at 10:29 PM

With the surprising departures of 3 starters from the NC team bolting, jumping, and fleeing to the NBA and 1 HUGE cog from the last two years squad throwing the deuces to the program, we ended up scooping up a huge class.  Next years team is going to be super interesting to follow and analyze with so much uncertainty.  We went from having a stud team to a total rebuild just like that.  I trust the coaching staff to do their damnest to mold a masterpiece.  And I trust the players to bust their humps to play their best ball the entire way. 

But does any on else feel like we're betting the farm on the development of severely underrated players vs. banking the schollies for some higher caliber talent for the future.  We might squeeze ourselves out of recuits for the next cycle if things dont all fall into place.  On the one hand, we'll have players with 1 year in the program.  On the other, we could have first rate talent coming in to bring the wood to michigan hoops.  

We wont have guaranteed scholarships left if we offer Huff (or whomever).  We'll be recruiting and make offers contingent on Levert, Beifeldt, and Maybe Irving and Walton making the super leap.

I know its all conjecture and BS but I get into the psyche of it.  FUCK ! I love michigan ball.

Comments

EastCoast

April 28th, 2014 at 11:53 PM ^

In Beilein We Trust.

Generic 3 Star PG w/o offer from home state school -> NPOY and Lottery Pick, etc.

3/4 Star SG/SF with inconsistent three-ball and few offers -> First Round Pick playing starter minutes as a rookie for a coach that doesn't play rookies

3/4 Star SG known only for his three-ball -> B1G POY, likely Lottery Pick, etc.

Generic, stick-thin 3 Star SG previously committed to OHIO -> On the road to the NBA

Unranked, out of shape 3 Star PF/C -> Solid 4 year player w/ possible shot at NBA or other Pro ball

 

He good.

spacemanspiff231

April 29th, 2014 at 7:23 AM ^

These players are desperate heaves and we should never have been in a position to make them. Beilein didn't have a contingency plan in place for the obvious eventuality that we were going to lose players at the end of this season. He hasn't recruited bigs since he got McGary and he should have been. Now we're left with iffy players playing out of position at BOTH the four AND the five. Sad state of affairs at the moment.

True Blue Grit

April 29th, 2014 at 8:02 AM ^

else calls what Beilein did desperation, filling needs, brilliant recruiting, or whatever.  He did what needed to be done to put a viable team on the floor next year after 6 players departed early in the last two years.  I've followed Michigan basketball since the later 70's and I've never seen so much attrition of quality players in such a short amount of time.  If you want to "blame" someone for this situation, blame what's become an absurd system in the NBA of drafting kids with one or two years experience and the expectations that have been pumped into kids heads since they're in junior high that college is just a short stepping stone to the pro's.  I hate seeing so many players each year leaving college ball before they're ready for the NBA, but it's the way it is until someone in the League decides to bring sanity back.  

gwkrlghl

April 29th, 2014 at 8:59 AM ^

John Beilein could win back-to-back national titles with a team made entirely of walk-ons and people would still go "Wow. Really disappointing that this team that won two national titles didn't have more 5 stars. Not sure if this program is going in the right direction"

I yearn to go back to the 70's or 80's where people didn't know what a recruiting ranking was and they just judged a coach based on the product on the floor. If you look at what Beilein has done on the floor, he's a genius. And if you really want to look at recruiting rankings then have no choice but to upgrade him to a sorcerer. How many players does Beilein have to get that the recruiting services missed or overlooked before everyone realizes "Oh. John Beilein knows how to recruit players and is capable of seeing things the services are missing"

If John Beilein was hired by any of the recruiting services he would instantly be the best talent evaluator in that business.

Kramer

April 29th, 2014 at 10:55 AM ^

Doyle is a 5

Donnal is a 4/5

Wilson is a 4

Chatman is a 2/3/4

Beilein's system, the one that's taken the team to 2 Big Ten Championshipins in 3 years, the Title game last year and the Elite Eight this year plays with only 1 true "Big", so I'm not sure what you wanted him to bring in the past 2 classes since McGary.  Another 5? 

AeonBlue

April 29th, 2014 at 9:32 AM ^

I don't understand where we as a fan-base get off on questioning what coach B does any more. He has taken a program in shambles and put us in the 2nd weekend of the tournament and beyond in 2 consecutative years now, ignoring the fact that he got a team with a 6'4" PF to the tournament.

If he's not beyond reproach, he's damn near it (I sometimes question clock management but then I remember I'm not a basketball coach) and recent success has spoiled this fanbase immesureably if this is seriously the conversation we're having at this point.

tl;dr Black magic voodoo sorcery that no one here will ever be able to comprehend.

alum96

April 29th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^

I think some times that some "fans" would rather win recruiting championships than actual championships.

And yes you need good recruiting to do well but just take a peak over to our football team since 1998 - except for about 3 years we had top 10-14 type recruits with a lot of 3,4,more loss seasons thrown in.   Coaching, development, systems, in game adjustments, etc all matter.  Recruiting is but one thing - we have a major advantage in this sport in all the other things.  We are going for higher level kids now and by definition you will strike out more as you are competing with Duke or Louisville or Arizona rather than Iowa or Xavier.

goblue16

April 28th, 2014 at 10:36 PM ^

Beilein has developed lots of players into all-big ten players. Novak, Douglass, LeVert, Morgan... R all 7 players gonna turn out like that probably not but if 3 of them do that's a successful class. The scholarships will always be there. We still have 1 left plus u have to assume LeVert or Walton or Irvin get some NBA love plus there may be some transfers. Beilein has said many times he will not recruit one-and-dones. Plus I would say Stauskas and LeVert turned out to b the best players of the 2012 class so don't assume a player with 5 stars pans out

LordGrantham

April 28th, 2014 at 10:40 PM ^

There's definitely some desperation here.  You don't get late April commitments from players with Dayton and Rhode Island offers unless you're trying to fill space.

EastCoast

April 28th, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^

Those Plan A guys are the best players in the nation who will always be getting offers from the traditional powerhouse programs. It isn't ever easy to get those guys.

It isn't like we are just accepting whoever is interested. Our coaching staff target guys who would fit into our system, and as top-rated guys either choose us or others, they adjust their focus accordingly.

There are certain guys who DO seem like desperate heaves (like Spike when we thought Trey might be gone), but I have to believe that our coaching staff was checking out Spike before he got the offer. They aren't just throwing darts at a board.

EastCoast

April 28th, 2014 at 11:38 PM ^

When the NBA Draft declaration deadline is in April? Probably a good number.

You get your core players in Kam Chatman, Donnel, and Doyle, and then you have some guys who you think could fit in the system, but who you can only offer if others leave.

If MAAR and Dawkins weren't scholarship worthy, I'd imagine we'd bank the scholarships, but their tapes show guys who have the raw skill to play in the B1G.

BradP

April 29th, 2014 at 10:44 AM ^

The only guys on the roster next year that seem like viable candidates for time on the wing were Levert, Irvin, and Chatman, who were all likely to be starters.

The need for a wing to back them up definitely made it into the "desperate" category.

For more evidence, it is no coincidence that Beilein went after one guy who is literally as old as he could be and be a senior in high school and a guy that played a year of post-grad basketball.

He needed guys that would be able to contribute, so he went out an took a flyer on two of the most physically developed guys he could find.

AeonBlue

April 29th, 2014 at 9:20 AM ^

This is the right answer. Picking up a late recruit is never desperation, it's filling a late need. Plugging in someone unqualified to play a position in the hopes it works is the desperate moment before you throw your hands up and move Taylor Lewan over to the 2nd RT position.

Genzilla

April 28th, 2014 at 10:40 PM ^

Next year being a total rebuilding effort is overstated.  

1 - Walton and Spike (Great platoon at PG)
2 - Levert and MAAR/Dawkins (Levert is first team all - B1G next year)
3 - Irvin and Dawkins/Chatman (Irvin was a 5* and Chatman is almost a 5*)
4 - Chatman and Wilson/Bielfeldt (Chatman and Wilson are top 100 recruits and Bielfeldt is experienced)
5 - Donnal and Doyle/Bielfeldt (Donnal is a top-100 player in his second year, Doyle could be a big dropoff)

The way I look at it, that's a fantastic perimiter team that might struggle in the post.  Hardly a complete rebuild.  

Genzilla

April 28th, 2014 at 11:39 PM ^

I'm not so worried about him physically, but he's a true freshman center in the Big Ten, that's a little worrying.  Also he played in a not particularly strong high school league and he didn't play AAU.  He'll be good in the long run, but he could seriously struggle at times this year.  He's never faced guys like the guys he'll see in the Big Ten this year.  He could be physically ready and still struggle.

At least Donnal had the perk of practicing against McGary, Morgan, and Horford for a year while he a redshirted which is why I'm less worried about him.

champswest

April 29th, 2014 at 11:33 AM ^

we are strong in 1-3 with starters, but inexperienced at back ups (except Spike). The 4 &5 are talented, but inexperienced and, in my opinion, playing out of position. So, we can field a pretty talented, but young starting five, but are weak with depth due to no experience. So I think it is some what of a rebuilding year (only 4 guys returning from last years rotation), but a chance to be pretty good by years end.

Genzilla

April 28th, 2014 at 10:43 PM ^

2 of Beilein's highly touted kids were Brundidge and Smotrycz.  Recruiting rankings are predicitive but imperfect.  They matter, but they're not deterministic.  It's to the point where we have to trust Beilein on these late offers.  Spike and Levert were both late signing period additions and they've panned out fine.  

Both MAAR and Dawkins are good athletes with good size.  2 things you can't coach.  I trust the coaches to work with the raw tools.

Zok

April 28th, 2014 at 10:48 PM ^

I feel like between btwn Levert, Walton, Irvin, DJ, and Chatman we will have 3 guys that will go pro by the end of their Jr season. The schollies will work themselves out.

I know Chatman  and DJ haven't play 1 min yet but I feel like with their skill set and athleticism from day 1 they will have a great shot at going pro. Successful in NBA who knows but I can def see them declaring by year 3. Chatman could easily be a 2 and done.

Levert is 100% gone next season and then max and spike will likely be gone the year after.

Really by picking up these two late recruits we are limiting schollies for next year only. and I personally think year 2 of Donnelv(PT wise), Doyle, Chatman, DJ, and Jr Walton, Jr Irvin could be a really really good team. Def as good as Burke frosh year. DAwkins and MAAR at min will be extra depth and maybe guys that play through their season season. We haven't every really had great depth before more Defensive oriented players. SOmething DJ and MAAR will bring. I like the way things are shaping up.

Only guys missing is McGary. WIth him we would have been F4 favorites next season IMO.

 

 

LSAClassOf2000

April 28th, 2014 at 10:48 PM ^

It seems to me that one of the strengths of this staff has been taking players that have been otherwise mostly overlooked and turning them into players that get honors and interest. More importantly to me, however, is that it seems like Beilein has developed his system to a point where he can take these same players and maximize their talents through what seem like subtle tweaks. Especially in the last couple seasons, we've seen the development work with the flexibility of the scheme to produce some excellent results and all the while the program has been able to utilize the scholarships that it knows it will have to ensure that this continues. Beyond the court, I think we're looking at something close to a complete system on many levels. 

ThadMattasagoblin

April 28th, 2014 at 10:50 PM ^

So Spike and caris were trying to fill space? They are great contributers and Levert will almost certainly be a 1st rounder. We can still get Brunson or other players by next year. The fact that this board thinks that this is desparate heave shows the true character of some of the "fans." Our coaches don't know what the heck they're doing ever according to them. Sell your Crisler tickets.

Genzilla

April 28th, 2014 at 11:01 PM ^

Should we have banked scholarships instead of taking Spike and Levert.  Spike and Levert helped us get to the national title game and Levert could easily become a lottery pick.  It's safe to say that the coaches made the right decision to take those guys instead of banking scholarships.  

They deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point.

gwkrlghl

April 29th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^

If we had held on to win the title, Spike would've been a huge reason why and he would be an an absolute legend in Ann Arbor for decades. Those were both two excellent pick-ups.

Not sure why so many can look at them and say "good choices" and then see Beilein doing the exact same thing now and yell "Y U NO BANK THEM IDIET"

HarBooYa

April 29th, 2014 at 8:29 AM ^

But let's not get carried away by news headlines. He is not right now an automatic first rounder. Could be if he makes a huge leap but comparing him to the projected first rounders this year, no. We got spoiled quickly since the Trey Burke experience 2 years ago and this past year. It does happen that often folks.

dlevs01

April 28th, 2014 at 10:51 PM ^

from a smart head coach. Beilein didn't originally anticipate this staff would start churning kids out to the league after 2 years. He doesn't want to get caught with a bare roster again. And as much as we all get caught up in the recruiting hype because we see the instant impact it has in bball, it is unrealistic to think that we are going to real in a 5 man class full of studs. Most of the elite kids aren't recruitable because one way or another they are getting something we won't offer. There will still be plenty of scholarships available but not we also have a good base of kids who should be here to fill out the roster, like spike, and possibly overlooked kids who can really blossom under this staff, like Caris. Who by the way was a May committ. 

Genzilla

April 28th, 2014 at 10:51 PM ^

If MAAR and Dawkins don't pan out and get playing time, they'll probably transfer so that they can play.  There's a reason Colton Christian and Carlton Brundidge left, they wanted to get minutes.  Offering a scholarship doesn't mean you're necesarily stuck for 4 years if it doesn't work out.