247 article: The schools sending the most EDGE prospects to the NFL
247's continuing series looking at the last 5 years of the draft, and who's sending talent to the NFL. I posted in a prior thread the Linebacker U claim, where Michigan ranked #5 out of all schools despite 247 omitting Jabril Peppers. He was subsequently included in the DB article, where Michigan came in at #10.
Today is the Edge defender list, and Michigan comes in at #2. Taco Charlton and Rashan Gary were 1st rounders in that period, Josh Uche a 2nd rounder, Chris Wormley and Chase Winovich 3rd rounders, and Mike Danna a 5th rounder. It's really an impressive list.
Doomsdayers will note that Ohio State is #1, and you can only tip your cap. They've had both Bosas and Chase Young drafted very early in the first round. But note that both teams have had 6 picks overall in that time, total "points" are relatively close at 36 vs. 33, and both teams are well out in front of all other schools. Alabama comes in 3rd here, with no first round picks, five picks overall, and 25 points.
With Paye, Hutchinson, and hopefully Villain looking to be added to this list over the next several years, Michigan has done an excellent job developing this position (as well as all other defensive positions 247 has looked at so far).
Wisconsin also impressive with 6 draft selections and tied for 4th, but not drafted nearly as high collectively as Michigan. PSU comes in at the bottom half of the list, with 3 picks in the last five years: a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounder.
These 247 pieces have been a nice contrast to the Sports Illustrated series several days ago, which looked at NFL drafts that, basically, covered Michigan's worst period of recruiting and player development (starting at the very end of Carr but mostly RichRod and Hoke).
I like 247's argument, which they state at the beginning of every piece - historical claims of LB or DB or RB "U" are largely irrelevant. Maybe they're nice to think about in historical terms, if you look at some of the great RBs that came out of USC (or Wisconsin) over time, for example. But they don't mean much today, given coaches and schemes and other things move.
If you're thinking about your team today, how it's performed, and - if the staff is still largely in place, which I think at Michigan you'd say it is given Brown and Harbaugh remain - what you can expect moving forward, this is a much better look. Better for recruits to consider as well.
Uche will have a longer career than Chase Young.
I've seen this sentiment posted several times here, genuinely curious.. why do you believe this will be the case? Seriously not trying to troll or argue, just wonder where the logic is coming from.
Maybe the fact that Uche is with the best organization in football and not the Washington Redskins
My assumption comes from Young being virtually a non-factor in the last 3-4 games he played in the season. Its not something I'd bet on, but Young could bust simply for no other reason than it happens all the time in the league with guys drafted as high as he is. The NFL is a complete crapshoot, and its why some guy from Alcorn State can be an All-Pro HoF guy, but the stud out of OSU or Alabama flames out in 4-5 years. But that obviously has nothing to do with Uche.
I will say the one leg up Uche has on Young right now is the team he was drafted by. Brady left town, sure, but Uche is going to the most stable, successful organization of the last 20 years. He's going into a proven system with a generational head coach who knows how to press all the right buttons at the right time. Rivera just got run out of Carolina and is stepping into a situation in Washington that really isn't much better, if at all. Young could certainly outshine that, but at least as far as who drafted them, Uche has a leg up in that department.
Can't disagree at all on who is walking into the better organization, Washington is.. less than ideal for promising young talent. If the OP had stated "more successful career" instead of "longer career", I'd probably agree with him. But Young is elite of the elite, as his draft position suggests.. I'd be willing to bet he'll just be a great player on a really shitty team.
Only time will tell though!
Yep, only time will tell. The lack of production from the Penn State game onward does give a little bit of pause, but how much he was double or even triple-teamed during that time, I have no clue. He'll certainly get a shot to show people how good he can be. There are no more bodybag games on his schedule. He's going against the best of the best every Sunday.
People tend to Neg him on the "lack of production" at the end of season, I think the simple answer is teams just adjusted more to take him out of the game. He had four sacks against Wisconsin the first time they played, none in the B1G Championship game. Getting doubled, chipped by a RB/TE, or the offense rolling the QB the other direction certainly hurt his "production".. but I think the greater take away from that is he was influencing the game, even without the stats.
Don't think UM gave him much special attention and he def was not a major factor.
Ron Rivera is a quality coach on the defensive side of the ball, and he's not past his prime like Joe Gibbs was. Unless you think Dan Snyder is going to mess things up - which is entirely possible, I guess - I don't see any reason to be down on Young in Washington. Rivera will find a way to use him well.
Chase Yoiung gave himself a little bit of the Tarzan destroys janes but gets nowhere vs the rest of the jungle. But the zero pressure, zero TFL or Sacks vs Michigan or Clemson.. That says a lot about Michigan's Oline and should call into question being the #2 pick in the draft and not do anything in the biggest games.
It's not a complete crapshoot though. Obviously there are busts even at the very front-end of the draft, but there's still a strong correlation between how high you're picked pick and likelihood of success + lengthy career.
Didn't even have to click on the thread to know who was #1. When you've had three DEs go in the top three in the past five years, you know who they're going to pick. And honestly, there really isn't anyone else to pick. I would say that I can't wait until Larry Johnson retires, but knowing OSU's luck they'll find someone to replace him who's even better.
Surrender to the void.
Why hasn't LJ moved on to a DC or HC role? I find it curious that no one has scooped him up.
Some guys are just comfortable where they’re at. They’re the best at what they do in their current role and don’t care to move to the next level. They like only having that limited responsibility. Bud Foster and Monte Kiffin immediately come to mind. Two of the best in the business who I don’t think either were ever head coaches, minus Monte having a two year stint at NC State back in the 80s. Just doesn’t suit them for one reason or another.
He’s also 68. If he goes somewhere else it’ll probably take him a few years to get things up and running at a level he expects, and he’ll be in his 70s by the time that happens. I imagine he’s also saying he doesn’t need that additional stress at his age. My guess is he plans on retiring within a few years anyway, so might as well keep working at the most heavily stocked DL assembly line in America.
All good, and very depressing, points. I did not realize he was that old.
Well said Sir. There is a certain amount of respect for people that know what they're great at, and stick to it, even if it's not the pinnacle of their profession.
Michigan hasn't given him an offer.
My question overall is why isn't this paying off big in recruiting? You would think we are in on all the top DE's with a list like this. You know our staff has to be selling it so what gives?
#2 in production of DE's in the nfl draft. Not landing them in recruiting. Makes little sense to me other than Nua and Brown aren't on it like they should be!
Your answer as to why this isn't paying off big in recruiting?
The last two games of the season.
A heartbreak or humiliation to your arch-rival, and then laying an egg in the bowl game. Its hard to recruit to a program where the ending of the story is the same every effing year, where top recruits can see what the ceiling is. Top recruits want to somewhere that they can win national championships. Yes, the NFL is absolutely a goal for them as well, but the programs that are winning national championships are also sending guys to the NFL in droves.
There's really nothing Michigan can offer right now (on the field) that these other places like Clemson, Georgia, OSU, Alabama, and LSU can't offer as well and then some.
I agree with the overall sentiment. I'm not as down on the result as you are. Remember LSU has had nothing to show for their efforts until last year. It will only take one year - and I think, a quarterback - for Michigan to break through.
But yeah the last two games have been a problem for offseason narrative. Now, results count, but there has been some terrible luck. 2016 would have seen a playoff but for 4 pass interference calls all going against Michigan and the spot, FSU is likely a win that year if the gd kickoff doesn't weird bounce, the South Carolina loss is probably a comfortable win if Higdon doesn't fumble inside their 10 yard line (though the debacle that followed is on the coaches), and Michigan had no business playing Alabama this year, which was a playoff team per S&P (they should have played Auburn, I believe they win against Auburn, and this offseason wouldn't be nearly as bad, optimistic even).
Its hard for me to take the comparison of "We're just like LSU, one QB and one season away" very seriously. For a couple of reasons:
1) LSU always recruited as well as Alabama. They always got whatever guys they wanted. So the talent was always there. They just never had someone prior to this year who could, on offense, put it all together and make it run effectively. Michigan does not recruit at the same level that its archrival does. Minus a few spots, OSU typically has more talented players at each position on a yearly basis. You can see the talent differential on the field. So Michigan, compared to its rival, has a recruiting problem and a development problem. LSU only ever had a development problem.
2) Alabama treats its rivalry with LSU nowhere even close to the level of intensity that OSU treats its rivalry with Michigan. Alabama hates LSU, sure, but they don't spend every minute of every hour of every day preparing to beat them. I don't even know that they do that with Auburn. I don't know that Saban approaches rivalry games with the same intensity that Tressel, Meyer and Day have done with Michigan. When Michigan faces OSU, they are facing a team with superior talent that has been focused solely on one goal for the last 365 days: Michigan's utter destruction. Every OSU player, coach, and staff member is locked in and everyone plays their best game, and Michigan has been completely unable to match that. OSU's devotion to beating Michigan is cult-like. Alabama was always LSU's sole obstacle, and Alabama doesn't care to beat them as much as OSU cares to beat Michigan.
We are much further away from getting over our hump than LSU was in getting over its. Yes, a QB will absolutely help, but a QB doesn't solve Don Brown giving up 50+ points the last two years.
But UM is turning out more NFL ready DE talent than all the schools you mentioned except ONE.
However, one potentially MAJOR factor is that the guy who recruited and coached all of the talent at UM is now the DC at that ONE school ahead of UM is this ranking :(
My question overall is why isn't this paying off big in recruiting? You would think we are in on all the top DE's with a list like this. You know our staff has to be selling it so what gives?
#2 in production of DE's in the nfl draft. Not landing them in recruiting. Makes little sense to me other than Nua and Brown aren't on it like they should be!
That's an interesting question and I don't know if there is an answer. Unfortunately the answer is probably something layered like "...a lot more goes into recruiting than any one attribute..." which isn't attention grabbing or easy to understand.
If I had to take a stab at it, you could look at that list and say that only Gary was an elite high school recruit. The rest were various forms of "pretty good" or "project". I think we're still doing okay with those types of recruits, people are just upset that we're not getting Chase Young or someone named Bosa or the next Gary. They also look at Gary and point out that while he was good at Michigan and drafted high, he didn't have the on-field results that others had.
The ideal situation is that we continue to develop NFL-quality defenders from a diverse mix of recruits but do a better job of sprinkling in the elite players (Peppers, Gary, Dax) that allow us to close the gap on the handful of elite schools.
I was going to say Wisconsin had to be in the top ten as well. Pressuring the QB has always been a priority moreso imo with spread teams. The NFL is the extreme but edge rusher is now a position unto itself as some teams do carry edge rushing specialists on their rosters. Becoming the norm.