WTKA Roundtable 4/14/2022: Sue Says It's Not Gonna Happen
Things discussed:
- The end of hockey: not just randomness. We didn't love the conservative approach—got scared by the end of Quinnipiac perhaps?
- Who's back, what's the program look like long-term?
- Mel's contract: Waiting for the WilmerHale Report. We don't know what they'll turn up; what's out there doesn't seem like a firing.
- Juwan/Lakers? Doesn't sound like Howard is interested in signing up for LeBron's last run.
- Michigan basketball: Any word from Hunter? Portal has more shooters in it now. Need to get a guard.
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment two is available here. And you can watch the video here:
The Usual Links:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct download link (right-click/save as)
- What's with the theme music?
Did the Lakers draft Jett?
April 14th, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^
Michigan might continue recruiting the best hockey talent in the country, but as long as that talent stays no longer than two years, Michigan will continue to struggle in post-season against teams with players who are a bit less talented but are more experienced juniors and seniors.
April 14th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
I don't think you're far off and I think your statement applies to basketball as well. I think the optimum team built for success has a good mix of young elite talent and veteran good talent. In some ways I think the "cheat code" in both hockey and basketball is the sophomore who will be a pro. You can't have your entire team be young and you can't have your entire team be a bunch of DeVante Jones & Eli Brooks guys. There has to be a mix.
Interesting to think that both sports are at a period right now where their upper class ranks are too thin and they are having to live with those young elite guys and their struggles.
Baylor and Kansas won the past two titles with very experienced teams but only one or two true pros apiece (maybe just one each in terms of NBA staying power). That seems like the right formula. I think the reason there have been virtually no repeat champions is because coaches can’t predict which guys will be good enough to help win a title but not so good as to leave for the NBA early. They seem to be sprinkled around the country rather than lumped into a few select places. A healthy Livers last year probably puts us in that discussion. A ton of upperclassmen, a couple pros/high level g league players, and one or two young contributors. Guys like Bacot returning to UNC is an example of what teams need to win.
April 14th, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^
They won the Big 10 tournament and made the Frozen Four this year.
I should have been more specific: they're going to have issues facing the other elite teams in the country, which generally means the FF.
Somebody else in another thread pointed out that Michigan has made the FF something like seven times since 2000, and we don't have a single NC out of all those appearances. I bet we'd have at least two NCs in that time span if more of our best talent stayed at least through their junior seasons.
If Brendan Morrison, Jason Botterill, John Madden, and Warren Luhning had all departed for the NHL after their sophomore seasons, would Michigan have won Red's first NC in the '95-'96 season without them? I doubt it.
FF games are nearly always 50/50 propositions with how good the teams are, which means that each FF appearance has a 25% chance at a title, so on average, you'd expect a team with 7 FF appearances to have 1 or 2 title wins. Having 0 wins has a 13% probability, which is low, but not as low as I'd expect. It's actually roughly a 50/50 shot to have 0 or 1 titles vs 2 or more titles over 7 FFs, so it's not like Michigan is *that* snake-bit (but definitely a little snake-bit).
For comparison, Denver has appeared in 6 FFs over the same time period, with 4 titles. Winning at least 4 titles in that number of tries carries just a 4% probability, so Denver has been much luckier than Michigan has been unlucky.
However, if there's something to it other than pure luck, then Denver is definitely the program to emulate.
What issues? Michigan beat Minnesota State this year, won the season series against Minnesota (including the Big Ten title game), and lost to Denver in overtime. Those are your Frozen Four teams. We literally earned the #1 overall seed and made the Frozen Four. Losing in OT to another team full of draft picks (and whose average age is younger than Michigan mind you) that won the title game by 4 goals.
It’s not about the players. Hockey is a random game. You’re adding single elimination to that. A bounce doesn’t go your way, calls don’t go your way (Denver getting 3 power plays to Michigan’s 0 for example) and it’s an uphill battle to win. Has nothing to do with whether your players are freshmen and sophomores or seniors. It’s mostly luck. Michigan has been unlucky (if you’re curious, go back and look at our Frozen Four results and how those games were lost).
There is absolutely nothing wrong with how Michigan builds it’s roster. Every team in the country would do it the way Michigan does if they had the opportunity. You balance your elite talent with lifers. You get your first and second rounders and then you surround them with overagers and later round picks that are going to be there for 3-4 years. Thats the formula.
Yeah, by my count the team went 9-7 vs tournament teams but 4 of those loses were to Jeff Jackson's team and his hatred of fun. They went 9-3 vs teams like Mankato, Duluth, Western, Minnesota, and UMass. It works fine. I wish we had a few more upper classmen to pair with the young talent but we lost a 50/50 game to a team every bit as good as us. That's hockey
April 14th, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^
thanks website
April 14th, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
I don't think you can look at this season and conclude that. Michigan was within inches of making the title game and easily could've won it all had they gotten there.
However, in principle I agree. While the last 2 classes have been gangbusters, we're still emerging from the tail off at the end of Red's tenure. Aside from Beecher, we really got very little contribution from this year's junior class. The sophomores coming back that you hope will grow into possible team leaders are pretty much PLP at forward and Truscott and Holtz on D. I hope Mel is scouting the transfer portal for some older guys because otherwise this team is going to be very young and inexperienced next year. Need some of that elder leadership to complement the young talent
I really don’t want to disparage the guys on the team, but the big issue I’ve noticed from the fallout of Red’s final years is the quality of the upperclassmen on this years team.
Don’t get me wrong, I love GVW, Moyle, Pasta, Lambert, etc. They played pivotal roles this year. But, and some of this is the amount of young talent we had, those veteran players are guys you’d like to see shouldering a bit more of the offensive load. Pasta had some time on the top lines so he contributed more points, but aside from him none of the other junior/senior forwards had over 14 points on the year.
It’s really going to help Michigan out in a couple years when guys like Duke, Estapa, and LaPointe reach that veteran status and are major contributors to go along with the infusion of freshmen/sophomore first rounders.
Yeah, the long horizon time on recruiting really set the program back 5+ years. I'm hoping Mel can follow the Denver route and get some of those guys that are 3rd-7th rounders that will be here 3-4 years. The 1st rounders are awesome, but we need solid upperclassmen too which we were a bit short on this year
April 14th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
I think you're probably right. Michigan can probably consistently beat 90% of college hockey teams on talent alone, particularly in the back half of the season. It's the top 5-6 teams that are going to be a problem: those teams will have talent that is, if not equivalent, competitive against Michigan's. With two relatively evenly-matched hockey teams, the game is going to come down to a handful of mistakes. At that point, the winner will be the team that executes 99.9% perfectly instead of 99% perfectly. Of the remaining 0.9%, probably half comes from luck and half from experience. Michigan can absolutely win a national title with rosters like they had this year, but their odds get better with a bit more experience, even at the expense of a little talent.
And yet, if you're Mel Pearson, do you really turn down a more-talented player in favor of a slightly less-talented player when you're recruiting, just because the less-talented player will stay 4 years? That feels like an impossible decision.
For me, that is what made the loss to Denver so frustrating as a missed opportunity.
There were the top draft picks, but Michigan also had Blankenburg, Beecher, Pastujav, Lambert, Morgan, Moyle, and Van Wyhe who were all key contributors. That's pretty good balance between young talent and experienced talent.
ARRRGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!! WHY YOU NOT COME OUT READY!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!??!
April 14th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
The commercial break made me feel like I was watching my parents argue
It was pretty degrading imo, Seth puts up with a lot of shit
It seemed like weird logic and weird anger. Paraphrasing Brian: "Stop saying that this the right way to investigate something, because UofM is under investigation for lots of stuff" - but those two things aren't really related. They were discussing how long it's going to take to finish the hockey investigation, and Seth noted that conducting a proper investigation takes time, and also it doesn't always happen that way - e.g. LSU. If Brian wants to give an example of UofM conducting shitty investigations elsewhere than hockey, fine, but the fact that the former president of the university is also under investigation isn't relevant to whether this hockey investigation is being conducted the right way or not; it's just more evidence that individuals suck sometimes. We certainly want to know when things aren't investigated fully & we love to get outraged about it, so why can't we acknowledge when it's not that, especially when it impacts the head coach's contract?
Also, he knows this is a public broadcast even during the break, no?
Yes they know, Craig outed a hockey insider he uses once, they had to remind him.
I think Brian took offense to the holier than thou attitude that those in the Michigan community sometimes take.
Seth saying "this is how you care about an investigation" looks like . Is a part of that.
But Craig and Sam were in a awkward position there
Love that Sam has Beverly Hills Cop on in the background.
I get that it's the MGOBLOG talk on WTKA and Brian is the Chief...but, if Seth has info that he thinks is relevant amd would like to say something, stfu Brian.
It had a very disrespectful, "I'm the fucking boss" vibe.
Yeah that was not great. Can’t talk to people like that , and especially an employee.
you know what I would do if my boss said something like that to me? I’d say “who the hell you talking to? Rephrase what you just said or im walking out the door “
but my boss would never because he is a great boss , and respectful.
April 14th, 2022 at 10:49 PM ^
The talk of playing TWill at the 2 got me to thinking of the ‘88-‘89 team. Granted, the game has changed significantly since then, but 6’ 7” Mike Griffin started at the 2 and got 23 MPG. If you have a ball dominant PG like Rumeal was, or like Frankie might be, you can get away with surrounding him with 3 wings and a big. Look at UCLA with Tyger, Jaquez, Juzang and Bernard. Of the 3 wings, Juzang is the most 2-like, but there’s really not much difference among the 3 of them. The thing is, all 3 guys can get their own offense. TWill, Caleb and Diabate don’t do that for you, putting more pressure on Frankie and HD.
April 14th, 2022 at 11:23 PM ^
I think if Twill could guard a 2. Then fine.. But you're asking to guard trent frazier like objects.
I wouldnt feel comfortable with that.
April 14th, 2022 at 11:35 PM ^
Good Hockey takes, and Beverly Hills Cop! Thanks Sam!
Feel bad for Seth having to plead no contest.
Seth:
I have professionally studied and taught on disruptive behavior and workplace bullying, and have two items for you:
1. You don't have to take that shit.
2. You are owed an apology.
Overall, keep up the great work!
Dude… yes! Where i work, we have very thorough and detailed trainings on exactly these scenarios…and most importantly calling that bullshit out as it happens.
which is why i wish/hope Craig or Sam did actually say something to Brian , post show…but they both clam’d up live so i don’t think it happened
But like you said 97, you are owed something Seth.
I know it's Brian's blog, but jeez, Seth carried this place on his shoulders when Brian was out with his personal stuff. Dude should show a little gratitude. Or at least basic respect.
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