We’re back here for Part Two of MGoBlog’s 2020-21 Michigan Hockey season preview. Yesterday we kicked things off by looking at the forwards, which you can take a gander at here. Today we will be taking a long look at the defense and goaltenders, so let’s dive right in.

The Returning Defense: A Pretty Nice Base

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Brian says that this player looks like an extra in a John Hughes movie [James Coller]

This post starts differently than the one on the forwards. That one began by focusing on the new guys since the scoring core of last year’s team was decimated by graduation. On the other hand, with the blue liners Michigan actually returns a pretty good group of players that should form a solid basis for this year’s team. The Wolverines return four of six starters, losing only two players to graduation, Luke Martin and Griffin Luce. Martin was a strong stay-at-home defenseman and Luce had a solid four year Michigan career, but neither player figures to be a huge loss and there’s a lot of upside in the returning core.

The biggest name is Cam York, a lottery pick of the Flyers in 2019 [insert Gritty joke here] and he had a respectable freshman campaign in the maize and blue. York was being asked to fill Quinn Hughes’ skates atop the first PP unit and though that was too much to reasonably ask of any player, York did a solid job. He posted 16 points in 30 games and was named to the B1G All-Freshman team. He’s not going to razzle dazzle like Hughes but he’s a mobile, puck-moving defenseman who does a lot of things well and isn’t prone to allowing the same sort of glaring odd-man rushes that frustrated Michigan fans in Hughes’ second season. Responsible, unsexy, and efficient, we should also credit York for having one of the best spoonerisms in current Michigan athletics (can’t touch Chuck Filiaga though). Expect York to be at the point on a power-play unit again this season and with more raw firepower on special teams, I could see York begin to approach a 0.8 PPG clip in the 2020-21 season.

[AFTER THE JUMP: solid veterans and exciting young guys]

The 2nd most important returning Michigan defenseman is Nick Blankenburg. The now-junior defender put up an identical 16 points, although in 35 games, last season for Michigan. Blankenburg has emerged as a steady presence who also gets power-play time and is strong in his own end. He’s a leader and a stand-out who is an example of the kind of quality players that Mel has been adept at picking out since arriving at Michigan. Blankenburg wasn’t an exciting recruit but snatching guys like him are how you build the bedrock of a solid program.

Another example of that kind of player is Blankenburg’s classmate, Jack Summers. Summers has been a rather similar version of Blankenburg but with slightly less offensive at this point. A year ago Summers put up a solid 4-6-10 line and was not a liability defensively, which is all you can ask for from a second pair defender. Again, it’s a real plus for Michigan Hockey that this group of Summers/Blankenburg are a slight cut above than the Boka/Luce group at a similar point in their respective careers. There’s also Keaton Pehrson returning, who was a freshman last year. Pehrson played almost every game as a rookie, posting a 1-7-8 line in 35 games. He didn’t do anything I really remember but also didn’t stand out in a negative way either, which, for a freshman defenseman, is A-OK. Pehrson is on track to be another Blankenburg/Summers at this point in his career.

In the reserves Michigan has Jake Gingell and Jay Keranen. Perhaps the only potentially creaky part of the roster is this spot because neither player has been battle-tested much. Gingell played 8 games for Michigan a year ago and did not inspire much confidence in his limited test run, showing concerning athletic limitations. Keranen meanwhile was added to the roster midseason and did not play any NCAA games (he did appear in the USNTDP exhibition, a game that went… not great for Michigan). He’s a 1998 birthday and a former BCHL player from Brighton, who Mel added seemingly because Keranen was available and in the area and Michigan needed bodies. Gingell and Keranen will need to show something they have not yet to make Michigan hockey fans feel okay if they suit up in the lineup at some point this season.

The Incoming Defense: A Unicorn Approaches

Not the unicorn but we have a photo of this guy in our albums [James Coller]

There are not many NHL defensemen who are 6’5” or above, who can skate well, and who can handle the puck. There are even fewer of those at the NCAA level. Michigan will have one this season. His name is Owen Power. A late Nov. 2002 birthday, Power is eligible for the 2021 NHL Draft and is a projected top 5 pick in that class. Given that the draft order for that class is extremely unsettled in the present, there is a not-insignificant chance that the future #1 overall pick could be skating at Yost this season. It’s not hard to figure out why he’s valued so highly. Power is a unicorn in that he’s a 6’5”, smooth skating defenseman that is an asset in both ends of the ice. If an NHL scout stands from 500 yards away and squints, he sees Victor Hedman. (Except a Victor Hedman who apparently wears glasses).

Paraphrasing various takes about Power from scouts on the internet, the scouting community raves about Power’s ability to use his size well, and he knows how to make his physical advantage over opponents count. Playing in the USHL last year for the Chicago Steel, Power was quite possibly the best defenseman to ever play in that league. His mobility allows him to jump in on plays and his offensive game has come along substantially in recent years. Power’s shot has improved and he’s a really smart player both on defense and with the puck on his stick. A threat on the PP, Power is a true three zone defenseman who should be a minutes eater at the next level. The question for Michigan is how much of that will come now and how much is in his NHL projection. Mel Pearson’s comments to the media have discussed putting Power on the first PP unit, so it appears he will play a lot right away.

Michigan also got a boost as General Mel won his valiant war against the Canadian World Juniors program and will not be releasing Owen Power to Team Canada’s imminent WJC camp. Doing so would’ve caused Power to miss most of the first half of Michigan’s season and forced a defenseman your author doesn’t want to see play have to play an awful lot. There’s still a chance that Power could put on the red and black maple leaf uniform over Christmas at the actual tournament, but he will not be present for the pre-tourney camp. That’s great news for Michigan hockey.

The other *important* incoming freshman defenseman is much less exciting but should be a valuable piece in year one and over his entire collegiate career: Jacob Truscott. Truscott is a Michigan native who played for the USNTDP last year, being drafted 144th overall (5th round) in 2020 by Vancouver. Truscott was the U18 team’s #2 defender behind the highly touted Jake Sanderson, getting some offensive chances and posting 21 points in 47 games. Scouts like Truscott’s mobility, able to shoot from the blue line and make the first pass but he doesn’t do a ton more than that. He’s seen as a solid defender with an active stick in the DZone, which he should be expected to do as a freshman this campaign. If there’s one way to sum up his scouting report, it’s that Truscott is seen as a jack-of-all trades, solid at everything but great at nothing type of prospect. Not flashy but fundamentally sound.

Michigan also brings in Steve Holtz. He’s an April 1999 birthday, making him very old for this recruiting class. Holtz put up muted numbers over a number of seasons in the USHL before making the switch to the BCHL in 2019. His production ticked up substantially there but that’s probably the result of him being older and moving to a more offensive league. He’s a Michigan native and is 6’4” so he comes with some real attributes, particularly the size (being physically developed) and age. He should be able to slide in and play NCAA without any real issues but there likely/hopeful won’t be any minutes for him to do that. A reserve defenseman is his most likely role.

The Goalies: Strauss Mann now has a (Very Good) Backup

[James Coller]

The 2018-19 Michigan hockey team struggled mightily in net, with freshman Strauss Mann and junior Hayden Lavigne playing hot potato for the starting job to all of our dismay. Last season that changed as Mann stepped forth and seized the #1 gig and he simply ran with it. Lavigne was still on the team as a senior but was not called upon much and everyone dreaded the possibility of a potential injury to Mann. That dynamic is quite different this year.

Well, only partially different. The constant is Strauss Mann. He was simply phenomenal last year, posting a .939 SV% and a 1.85 GAA to earn B1G Goaltender of the Year as a sophomore. If Michigan made the NCAA Tournament last season, it was going to be because of Mann’s genius. He wasn’t pulling a carcass forward a la JS Giguere 2003, but Michigan was not a dominant defensive team and Mann was putting up some of the best stats in the country. It was a total reversal from the preceding season where goaltending was very much a liability. Last season it was Michigan’s greatest strength. With Mann back in net and now one of the favorites to contend for national goaltender of the year, Michigan fans should be able to rest easy this season as long as Strauss is in the crease.

They should also be able to rest easy if Strauss, for some reason, is not in the crease. That is thanks to the arrival of Erik Portillo from the USHL. A mammoth Swedish netminder, Portillo came over to the USHL last year from the junior SuperElit and put up a 2.11 GAA and .915 SV% for Dubuque. That was 4th in SV% and 2nd in GAA league-wide and he was significantly better than his backup who he shared near 50-50 time with, which suggests his success wasn’t just team based. Indeed USHL observers seemed to agree, who lopped USHL Goalie of the Year on him and made him a First Team All-Star. Portillo also has pro aspirations, unlike Mann. He was a 2019 third round draftee of the Buffalo Sabres, which meant he was the fifth goalie taken in that draft. Portillo plays a hybrid style of goalie as opposed to your normal butterfly, which is especially unusual given that he’s 6’6”. He draws high marks from scouts for his positioning, agility, hockey IQ, and mental toughness.

Honestly the biggest question is why Erik Portillo is at Michigan. Obviously it’s great to have a player that good as a backup, but he probably should be a starter for some other team. Which raises the question about how much he’s going to play. In college hockey a good starter like Mann can play nearly every game, leaving almost no time for Portillo. And Mann is a junior with limited pro aspirations, meaning he’s almost certainly coming back next year too. Simply put, why did Buffalo agree to let Portillo suit up for Michigan?

The only logical answer is that they have a guarantee from Mel Pearson that Portillo is going to play. I don’t know if it will be a 50-50 situation, but there’s no way that a pro team would let a top goalie prospect go to a school he won’t get to play any minutes for. If I have one question for the season, it may be about how they will go about resolving the goalie dilemma. Last season Michigan entered the year with two goalies who were making fans queasy. This year they enter with two goalies who make fans ecstatic. That may not be a significantly better position to be in, though.

Thoughts on the team defense overall

[James Coller]

Last season, Michigan allowed 2.00 goals-per-game, which ranked 7th in the NCAA and it was the primary reason why the team was on the cusp of a tourney berth when the season was abruptly cut short. The combination of a fundamentally sound defensive group, an excellent goalie, and a penalty kill that improved a ton helped make them one of the stingiest teams in college hockey. It also helped that their style was geared towards trapping in the neutral zone as a way to slow down opposing rushes and steer the contest in the direction of a lower-scoring affair.

This year’s team should remain good defensively, if only because they return the same goalie and have a quality (and very large) insurance policy on him as well. Defensively they bring four players back and add two freshmen who were both draftees and neither project as problems in their own end. That gives the Wolverines a very high floor. The penalty kill should remain stout with Kris Mayotte still behind the bench. Mayotte worked wonders to turn what had been the team’s Achilles heel in Mel’s first two years into a source of strength in 2019-20, raising the PK% all the way to 84.3% a year ago.

The questions on the defensive end are threefold: 1.) how will the team’s playing style change with more talent?, 2.) how will the team adapt to having more offensive forwards who may be less defensive responsible?, and 3.) what does the goalie rotation look like?. For the first question, I do think the team’s play will open up a bit, and question two is a legitimate area of concern having watched teams like BU and Wisconsin the last few years. Hyper talented teams sometimes lose the fundamentals and play sloppy, disorganized hockey that is a mess defensively. Here we have to trust Mel and hope he knows what he’s doing (a thing you’d like from your coach). I think he’s been a fine coach through three seasons and we have to believe here in year four. As for the goalies, I do worry about a carousel situation instead of just having one horse every night, but the saving grace is that whoever is playing should be good. And if Portillo struggles, then we’ll probably go back to lots of Strauss Mann, which is not a bad thing. 

 

As for the defensive pairings, here is my current guess:

 

York - Pehrson

Power - Blankenburg

Truscott - Summers

 

Mel mentioned in a recent presser that Blankenburg was working with Power and they want to pair York with a more defensive player, so Pehrson makes sense there. In that case, Summers and Truscott will play together on the third pair. I feel very comfortable looking at that six man lineup as a whole, with each pair not having any glaring weakspots defensively and having the ability to contribute offensively. No parking cones and no players allergic to the puck.

The only real concern is if one of Holtz, Keranen, and Gingell have to play. Hopefully Holtz stands out because neither of those latter two give me any confidence if they have to suit up. If  the top six could all stay healthy and COVID-negative the full season that would be great. If they are healthy, this group should be a stingy defense with an elite backstop again and will help balance out the young weapons upfront. Having now covered the entire roster in these two previews, what I can say is that this should be a very good and very fun team. Emphasis on should.