Stargazing [Patrick Barron]

Jimmystats: Visualizing Roster Data Comment Count

Seth December 14th, 2018 at 12:00 PM

Here comes my latest attempt to make my spreadsheets into cool interactive charts. If you haven't checked it before, I keep these Google Sheets of Michigan's recruiting and roster data going back to 1990, and those are back to being updated. I've also experimented before with Tableau and other interactive chart software.

The 2019 Class in Context:

/tap tap does it work?

If you see the "Viz" horray. The big yellow bubbles are the current 2019 commits, the blue are former players with available recruiting data in my database, and the maize bubbles are Michigan's current players. You can click on those groups below the chart to see them with more clarity (some players, e.g. Donovan Peoples-Jones, might be covered up otherwise). I've also included some filters so you can pop out certain eras, specific classes, or who had NFL careers.

Also you should be able to mouseover the chart to pull up each player, some career data, and the components that went into his ranking.

Things made apparent:

  • Thanks to those 2016 and 2017 classes some of Michigan's highest-rated recruits at several positions are still on the team.
  • Notably the current players are bit lower than the post-Bo standard distribution at DT, RB, and both safety spots. DT and RB are addressed in the 2019 class but not safety, unless Daxton Hill makes his way back into the class.
  • The NFL draft picks, especially first-day picks, are bunched towards the top of the recruiting rankings. B.J. Askew was the only low 3-star to get drafted as high as the third round, and Frank Clark is the only recent first-day pick who was less than a 4-star. If they NFL wasn't dumb Maurice Hurst would be in there.

Recruiting stars matter, even if the distribution is wide. That said, how does the 2019 class stack up so far?

[Hit THE JUMP if you want more mouseovers]

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Michigan Recruiting Class History

I popped in some additional options with my traditional rainbow view. Since I didn't say so on the chart, Red is a 5-star, Orange a 4.5-star, etc. Again you can mouseover each square to see the player it represents. You can also show just certain position groups, hide walk-ons and transfers, highlight the starters, whose college careers ended how, and who had an NFL future.

Depending on how it finishes the class should get back up into the range of normal for Michigan. It's already better than last year's class (more high 3-stars and two high four stars that 2018 didn't get) and heading for something like the 2013 class, which flamed out at the top* but also produced six draft picks and 11 starters (counting Hurst) for the 2016 team.

Collecting another one or two offensive linemen would be nice given the two-OL class last year, attrition in the large 2017 class, and the fact that all three orange+ recruits had to burn their redshirts.

image

There's a separate tab that breaks them down by height and weight. You can filter that by class, era, and position. Honestly I made it only so I could see the 2018 freshman defensive backs versus the norm:

image

The 5'11"/185 guy is Casey Hughes, the Utah transfer

But I did find it interesting that Cade McNamara is over on the Rich Rod end of the QB size distribution:

image

The dot to his left is Tate and the bottom-left is Denard. Also you may have to scroll it to the right a bit to see Onwenu.

* [The top seven were: Derrick Green, Patrick Kugler, Dymonte Thomas, Shane Morris, Kyle Bosch, David Dawson, and Chris Fox.]

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Attrition Chart

This chart breaks down attrition by type. I've hidden walk-ons and transfers from this view by default mostly because the 2015 transfers made it look like the 2015 class held on better than it did. Kinnel, Higdon and Perry are out of eligibility, and of the four redshirt juniors in that class—Gentry, Runyan, Ulizio, and Reuben Jones—I'd guess two are likely to be back next year. That's a disaster on par with the last transition class, 2011, which also saw just five guys complete their eligibility at Michigan (six if you count Frank Clark who was booted near the end of his senior year). And Rich Rod's class before it was worse!

You'll note Michigan was still dealing with the effects of the 2010 and 2011 class attrition into Harbaugh's first years. Likewise the poison of the program in the fall of 2014 will continue to haunt Michigan next year when there are just two 5th year seniors in the room (and Jordan Glasgow and other walk-ons). Gap years then get filled by classes of players attracted to an easy path to playing time, who in turn are more likely to transfer if they don't find it early. The ripples, in defections from the likes of James Hudson, Deron Irving-Bey, and Drew Singleton, will still be felt in 2021. It's a sober reminder that coaching transitions carry long term damages in case you come across a mouthbreathing Harbaugh-hater this holiday season.

However there's also cause for some Harbaugh criticism in the above. You can chalk it up to the realities of a modern program, but note that the guys Hoke recruited (with more than a few weeks' notice) graduated at a prodigious rate. Even with a high number of grad transfers, the blue shades for the 2012-2014 classes extend well past 80 percent. Harbaugh's core classes, by contrast, have already experienced a number of playing time defections and behavioral dismissals. It's a good bet that more 2016 and 2017 players on the roster who got passed this year are planning on leaving, not all with degrees. Michigan's defense is also likely to lose an unprecedented amount of talent to the NFL—Gary has already announced, and nobody expects Devin Bush to be back, with both corners and some other players still deciding, via Sam. Mouse over the turquoise blocks above and you can see even in years Michigan lost two guys to the NFL early, a lot of those guys were an Alex Ofili or Carson Butler who was more done with school than an actual pro prospect. Bush and Gary are almost certainly 1st rounders.

Comments

kevbo1

December 14th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^

Michigan is at an inherent disadvantage because a lot of players they might want can't hack it academically or just plain don't want to play school.  We are essentially Northwestern with better recruits.

Michigan4Life

December 14th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^

That is actually false. Michigan has taken on players who don't care about school (bc they want to get to the NFL) or players who are borderline academically qualified in the past. It's a matter of if they're good enough to be a NFL player and if they are, they'll take 'em.

Kewaga.

December 14th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^

 

  • The NFL draft picks, especially first-day picks, are bunched towards the top of the recruiting rankings. B.J. Askew was the only low 3-star to get drafted as high as the third round, and Frank Clark is the only recent first-day pick who was less than a 4-star. If they NFL wasn't dumb Maurice Hurst would be in there.

Recruiting stars matter, even if the distribution is wide.

 

It's a sober reminder that coaching transitions carry long term damages in case you come across a mouthbreathing Harbaugh-hater this holiday season.

 

SETH:  GREAT stuff!!

QUESTION: Any way you can add each star level to those we can block out... not only walk-on and transfers?  ie.  block of all 2 stars, low 3, high 3, low 4, high 4.  It would be easier to compare recruiting year for blue chips mainly.

Plus, perhaps Michigan's sweet spot right now in high 4 stars, low 4s (and high 3s) . Sure go after the 5's especially if there is already an interest or connection.  But hitting on much, much more of the former will allow the program to continue making strides in moving up the recruiting pecking order.  Until we beat OSU and a B1G ten title we may have trouble landing those 5s now. : (    I know, I know.... but we can't beat OSU until we get the 5s... welp

mgowill

December 14th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^

What I like about Seth's data, is the inclusion of average stars and composite scores.  I find these much more useful than just "stars."  Stars have an arbitrary cutoff point and reduce a player's perceived value by 20%.  This can occur if the composite score is only 0.001 less than another player.

Take "4 Star" Zach Charbonnet - 0.9800 composite, #42 overall player, #3 RB

Then compare "4 Star" Quinten Johnson - 0.8909 composite, #371 overall player, #29 S

Also "3 Star" Mike Morris - 0.8891 composite, #390 overall player, #29 SDE

 

I think my point illustrates itself.  For what it's worth, Michigan is recruiting at about a 0.8900 average composite.  Basically a high three star/low four star average top 300 overall.  Ohio State is at about 0.9200 which is a low four star average top 200 overall.  So for all gnashing of teeth, we are just a click behind Ohio State in recruiting.  

mgowill

December 14th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^

Nah - that places way too much stock on one single game. Clemson shut out Ohio State a couple years ago.  Ohio State didn't shut down their program after that.  The other interesting thing about that Clemson team is that they were recruiting at an average composite equal to - that's right - the current level Michigan is right now.  2016 Clemson 31 - Ohio State 0.

Clemson Composite Average

2015 - 0.8912

2014 - 0.8869

2013 - 0.8846

2012 - 0.8903

2011 - 0.8717

 

Michigan Composite Average -

2018 - 0.8875

2017 - 0.9120

2016 - 0.8986

2015 - 0.8781

2014 - 0.8890

 

FWIW - when Clemson did what they did that year, their recruiting took off.  We needed that this year for sure, but we didn't get it.  I'm not ready to burn the whole thing down.  I think we are right there.

 

mgowill

December 14th, 2018 at 6:20 PM ^

I was not happy (and probably never will be) with the result of the Ohio State game. I try to look at the data and come up with my own conclusions. Seth’s data is perfect for this because of the many layers of filters it provides. I’m a data driven guy and to me, this year, on paper, we should have beat Ohio State. But the same sport allowed a 0.500 Purdue team to buzzsaw an Ohio State team that embarrassed us. I’d like to find a reason why this happened, but I don’t think recruiting is the answer.

markusr2007

December 14th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^

Michigan's football program will never reel in the number of 5 star players each year enjoyed by football teams like Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia (4 five star recruits in 2019!), Clemson, etc. Not anymore. Not with the stuff going on out there required to pull that off.

That said, I think Michigan recruits remarkably well in football. The UM football facilities and coaching staff are both very good. They also develop the 3 and 4 star athletes as well as, or better than, other teams across the country.

The ongoing frustration is that Michigan fans have to reconcile Michigan's rather inconsistent recruiting classes under Harbaugh with those of its rivals - like Ohio State, for example, and even Penn State.  The talent gap net of NFL departures and player attrition versus Ohio State is significant, and obvious on the scoreboard. 

So UM fans have to reach the acceptance stage of the grief cycle about their favorite football team.

Michigan is no longer the dominant Bo team of the 70s. No longer the powerhouse of the 90s and early 2000s either. Those days are over forever. Harbaugh is inching Michigan closer to being consistently very good.

Michigan football is now good. Consistently good. Sometimes very, very good.  But I don't believe Michigan can be consistently Elite level.

What are the reasons for this? I don't pretend to know. But it seems like there are multiple factors affecting Michigan disproportionately:

  • Incessant negative recruiting?
  • Higher admissions standards?
  • Roster depth and competition?
  • Freshman playing time promises vs. having to earn it concerns?
  • W-L record?
  • Losing streaks to rivals?
  • NFL placements?
  • Bowl performances? 
  • Anti-UM media bias conspiracy?
  • Cash payments, tats and dealer auto-lease specials?

It reads like a list of excuses, but it's not like Michigan's coaching aren't trying hard to overcome objections and sell the tradition, experience and value prop of UM.

UofM empirically and qualitatively blows the doors off of Alabama, OSU, Clemson, Georgia, etc. in most to all academic aspects, so that's a major competitive advantage.

Right now 247 has Michigan's 2019 class ranked 11th, Notre Dame's ranked 10th and Ohio State's ranked 9th. Michigan previously had a high top 10 class in the works.

Also, don't look now, but Nebraska and Purdue are 4th and 5th respectively in their BIG10 class rankings - well ahead of Wisconsin.  Brohm and Frost are doing very well on the road selling what they have.

 

 

 

 

colomon1988

December 14th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^

"No longer the powerhouse of the 90s and early 2000s either."

I'm not sure how you're evaluating this?  Lloyd's national championship year was definitely awesome, as was his dominance over John Cooper's OSU.

But he only had two seasons with more than 10 wins.  He had five seasons (38% of 'em) with 4+ losses, and another five with 3 losses.

Harbaugh doesn't have a national championship yet.  Other than that, his record here fits right in with Lloyd's.  (Before you say "but OSU" -- Lloyd absolutely did dominate Cooper (5-1!).  But he went a rather less impressive 1-6 against Tressel.)

MGoStrength

December 14th, 2018 at 9:06 PM ^

So UM fans have to reach the acceptance stage of the grief cycle about their favorite football team.

I think Michigan is back to being Michigan.  We are back to our historic 8-10 type seasons with consistently around a top 10 recruiting class every year.  The problem is that Meyer has taken up residence in our division and he has given OSU a boost above what they had done in his predecessor's eras.  He has taken OSU from a similar top 10 recruiting ranking that UM had and bumped it up to more like a top 3-4 class.  There are examples of team's like Clemson beating teams like OSU with more talent, but it's rare.  Right now we are doing good, but not Meyer-level good at recruiting.  Hopefully under Day they will divert back to our level putting the two teams on a more even playing field.  One would thing a win over them would help, then again Saban has shown multiple times he can bring in a top #3 class without winning first.  Time will tell.

You Only Live Twice

December 14th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^

Interesting to have this chart after having listened to the John U. Bacon segment on Sam's show this morning.  

Bacon's thought on the question, is it possible to win it all, without cheating?Yes, possible, but much more difficult.  

Will the NCAA do anything about it?  Not likely.  Media have been highly reluctant to go after the stories that are there, and that would conceivably make a difference.

 

Scottwood

December 14th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^

It seems like 2016 and 2017 were similar to the Carr years. This year’s class appears to be below that level. 2 years in a row with a slightly dissapointing class although it is an uptick from 2018. But this class wouldn’t be good long term if it’s the new normal.

Landing Keegan and Johnson would help but JH does need some better recruiters on his staff. Penn State has had better classes the past two years; let alone OSU’s big advantage.

Jonesy

December 14th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^

How did you embed these Tableau reports? My very large company is under the impression that everyone needs a Tableau license to view and use reports which never made any damn sense to me and makes it really expensive to use. Will these reports above actually update and change when you change the underlying data?

Seth

December 14th, 2018 at 9:25 PM ^

It's just a simple iframe.

<iframe src="https://public.tableau.com/views/[YOUR CHART]?:showVizHome=no&:embed=true" width='700' height='700'></iframe>

You just have to grab this part of the link:

https://public.tableau.com/views/MichiganRecruitingClassesHistory/MichiganRecruiting1990-2020?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&publish=yes

...and insert it.

I have a little javascript that I wrote to embed youtubes and gfycats, so I added tableau to it.

GarMoe

December 15th, 2018 at 5:44 AM ^

Just.......wow.  I've been on a CFB fast since The Loss and this is just the sort of soothing one needs - stats - to help slowly bring us fasters back.  Great stuff