Fall Roster Overanalysis 2017 in Spring 2018!

Fall Roster Overanalysis 2017 in Spring 2018! Comment Count

Seth May 9th, 2018 at 9:40 AM

Michigan did in fact release a spring roster this year, though this one gets the paint drying treatment, since even Steve Martin couldn’t get excited about the most recent phonebooks.

There are reasons for that. For one we kinda had a basketball thing going on the day they appeared. Two, we kinda had a hockey thing going on. Three, the roster release is what precipitated the Elysee Mbem-Bosse situation (because he wasn’t on it), and I didn’t think an irreverent post on the roster was appropriate right at that moment. And four, these are all the same weights from the game notes they put out for the media last year, which have finally been applied to the online 2017 rosters as well as the spring ones. I’ve taken to updating my spreadsheet whenever insiders said things like “Paye is up to 365” or a player posted his new number and will show that when it’s available, but those are not verified and therefore not included here.

But hey, it’s officially official offseason and it’ll be good to have this when we do get new rosters five minutes before Notre Dame kickoff and we can measure the Herbertization. So I’ll note all the actually new things, and we’ll hit the jump to see last year’s weight gains/losses and make totally unrealistic judgments about it.

NUMBER CHANGES

We’ve discussed some of these already but seeing them all might put those in better context.

  • Kekoa Crawford: 1—>41
  • Jordan Anthony: 1—>34
  • Kareem Walker: 6—>46
  • Nate Schoenle: 35—>81
  • Shea Patterson: 2
  • Joe Milton: 5
  • Taylor Upshaw: 91
  • Myles Sims: 6

We have an interview with Schoenle going in HTTV so I got the author to confirm that number changed because Schoenle and Uche are both on special teams. Kareem Walker’s change was also his choice I’m told, part of a refocusing process that’s less about “I’m the next Tyrone Wheatley!” and more “I’m going to be my best myself.” He probably didn’t realize he just went to the number of an even greater former Wolverine, Harry Newman (or early ’80s star running back Lawrence Ricks).

In the absence of an explanation for Crawford’s number switch, along with his non-mention in spring, it’s not hard to speculate negative things. On the other hand, I remind you 41 was Rob Lytle, and Harbaugh was the ball boy on those teams, and I guarantee you he wouldn’t miss a chance to point this out if someone groused about wearing it. It also could just mean Kekoa has joined the kick return unit too so he can’t have the same number as Ambry Thomas.

HEIGHT CHANGES

I don’t know why so many of these changed—dudes don’t usually grow taller in college and only fullbacks shrink—but they did so I’ll report them. As best I can tell originally they just grabbed whatever was listed on the Rivals database, and now they report their own measurements.

  • Up 2 inches: Josh Uche 6’1”—>6’3”; Devin Gil 6’0”—>6’2”
  • Up 1 inch: Ben Bredeson 6’4”—>6’5”; Juwann Bushell-Beatty 6’5”—>6’6”; Noah Furbush 6’4”—>6’5”; Ron Johnson 6’3”—>6’4”; Khaleke Hudson 5’11”—>6’0”; Kekoa Crawford 6’1”—>6’2”; Cesar Ruiz 6’3”—>6’4”; and Andrew Stueber 6’6”—>6’7”
  • Down an inch: David Long 6’0”—>5’11; Eddie McDoom 6’1”—>6’0”; Nick Eubanks 6’6”—>6’5”; Kurt Taylor 5’9”—>5’8”; O’Maury Samuels 5’11”—>5’10”; Tarik Black 6’4”—>6’3”; Nico Collins 6’5”—>6’4”; Quinn Nordin 6’2”—>6’1”
  • Down 2 inches: Donovan Jeter 6’5”—>6’3”

Any David Long + Lavert Hill photo could tell you they were the same height—if anything Hill is taller—so that one doesn’t surprise me. Adding an inch to offensive linemen makes people who put stock in roster data (ahem) think those OL are better pro prospects, so that could be what that is. Ditto linebackers.

    POSITION CHANGES

    These don’t show as much as they should because Michigan’s positional definitions are as vague (OL, LB, DB, etc.) as possible. Also you know about them already: Jared Wangler moved to fullback, and they’re now listing the vipers Khaleke Hudson and Jordan Glasgow as linebackers.

    The changes we’ve heard about are Glasgow swapped with Hawkins for SS/Viper, Uche stayed with the OLB group at his request instead of trying out at DE, Irving-Bey is with the tackles, and Joel Honigford is with the guards.

    WELCOME TO THE DATABASE FRESHMEN!

    After signing day Michigan snuck a new page into its roster list with the guys who’d signed their LOIs. No numbers yet but it’s an opportunity to publish their listed weights versus what the services had them at. I included the early enrollees.


    Height Weight
    Name Pos Mich 247 Rivals ESPN Scout Mich 247 Rivals ESPN Scout
    Joe Milton QB 6'5" +0.5 - - -0.5 220 +10 -20 +12 -
    Michael Barrett ATH 6'0" -0.5 - - x 215 - -15 +8 x
    Hassan Haskins RB 6'1" - - - 207 -5 +5 -5 x
    Christian Turner RB 5'11" - -1 -1 - 185 +2 -7 +7 -
    Ben VanSumeren FB 6'3" - - - x 232 -4 +7 -20 x
    Ronnie Bell WR 6'1" - - -1 x 174 -4 - - x
    Ryan Hayes TE 6'7" - - -1 - 262 -10 -2 +5 -3
    Mustapha Muhammad TE 6'4" - +1 - 244 -9 +5 -5 x
    Luke Schoonmaker TE 6'6" - - -1 - 229 -4 +4 -4 -
    Jalen Mayfield OL 6'5" - - +1 - 275 -2 -23 +10 +13
    Aidan Hutchinson DL 6'6" - - +1 -1 258 +2 +6 -17 -15
    Julius Welschof DL 6'6" - - -1 x 253 -5 +2 - x
    Taylor Upshaw DL 6'4" +1 - - x 240 - -5 +5 x
    Cameron McGrone LB 6'1" - - +1 - 225 -10 -5 +4 +1
    Sammy Faustin DB 6'2" - - -1 - 190 - -20 +7 +13
    Vincent Gray DB 6'2" - - - x 180 - -15 +14 x
    German Green DB 6'2" - - - - 178 -10 +12 -12 -
    Gemon Green DB 6'2" - - - - 175 -10 +8 -8 -
    Myles Sims DB 6'3" -0.5 - - -0.5 173 - - - -

    Also Utah transfer Casey Hughes was listed at 5’11”/195 by Utah and 6’0”/185 by Michigan, whatever that means.

    For those counting at home, here’s how close the services got to whatever the school decided to list them at, on average:

    • 247: Off by 0.13 inches and 4.58 lbs
    • Rivals: Off by 0.11 inches and 8.47 lbs
    • ESPN: Off by 0.47 inches and 7.53 lbs

    So I guess use Rivals’ heights and 247’s weights? This would be fun to do on a larger basis. Scout data is included from what I grabbed before the merger but I didn’t have enough to count them.

    [Hit THE JUMP if you want to see last year’s weight gain 2000 chart, which I remind you again only exists so I have something to work off of next fall]

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    Comments

    Jimmystats: The 2018 Class in Context, Part II: Defense

    Jimmystats: The 2018 Class in Context, Part II: Defense Comment Count

    Seth March 2nd, 2018 at 10:22 AM

    image

    Very different types of 3-stars [Eric Upchurch, 2013]

    This is take two (take one got deleted) of Part II of my attempt to put the recruiting rankings of this year’s commits in context within the ~500 previous Michigan commits we have Part I: The Offense lives here.

    Since the last one I’ve been dealing with a health thing. In fact I’m writing this from the hospital, where they’ve had me holed up since last Friday. Between tests, consultations, vitals, and literally almost 100 needle pokes into my vascular system, I’ve had time to complete a substantial update to my roster database, which now goes all the way back to Gary Moeller’s first year, plus some long overdue tweaks to how I value position and regional rankings.*

    I’ve also been playing around with interactive charts on Tableau:

    image

    Click to get to the chart since I can’t figure out how to get embedding to work yet. I’m new at these so bear with me as I learn.

    * [Methodology for stat nerds: I averaged the 247 composites of each rank for each position, then plotted it on a graph and used the logarithmic formula]

    ---------------------------

    STRONGSIDE DEFENSIVE END

    imageimage

    Young Wormley was 70 percent potential, 30 percent hair [Upchurch/Bryan Fuller]

    After Michigan loaded up with linemen last year and secured two one of the top DEs for 2019, they could afford to get picky in 2018. They still got one potentially immediate contributor and two excellent choices for sleepers of the class. Aiden Hutchinson got a late ratings bump from the sites which pushed him up from a near-perfect Ryan Van Bergen comp to “not just a four star” range.

    image

    The only relatively recent guy Michigan captured in this range was Craig Roh, but if Rivals hadn’t been so contrarian with Wormley I think that would be your closest comp. 247 was the highest on Wormley and came out about the same on Hutchinson’s kid. He’s supposed to be coming in to play defense but if you want to project him at guard, well, here’s the closest comp:

    image

    We have to scroll down to the mid 3-stars for Taylor Upshaw and Julius Welschof:

    image

    Note that’s not “generic three star” like Greg Brooks/Rondell Biggs, but neither is it “just missed a fourth star” like Carlo Kemp and Jibreel Black. As I said, I love the potential with both of these guys. Upshaw is the son of an NFL player who didn’t start playing football until recently. Welschof is a German athletic freak and mogul skiier who gathered a lot of interest from the big-time schools he camped at. The recruiters were always playing catch-up there too. Rivals didn’t take to Welschof—otherwise the sites placed them in the same range as some other position-switchers or needs-to-gain-weight types with high ceilings to unwrap in a few years.

    Defensive end is a position where the talent apparent in high school translates more directly to an NFL career:

    image

    (and that’s totally the reason I showed this)

    Fortunately for our hopes here the only guy from the three-star bin considered an athlete on the level of Upshaw and Welschof was Shelton Johnson, and his career crumbled for off-field reasons.

    [After THE JUMP: used to be better before I had to rewrite all of it]

    -----------------------------

    Comments

    Jimmystats: Rostering 2018

    Jimmystats: Rostering 2018 Comment Count

    Seth January 22nd, 2018 at 2:00 PM

    We’re off the shores of offseason and wading toward the Signing Day drop-off, and 247 recently released their final 2018 rankings, so I thought now would be a good time to update my big, useful roster database.

    apologies for giving Rutgers a competitive advantage

    It can tell you fun things, like how this year’s recruiting class stacks up against previous ones:

    image

    (it’s like the 2014 one, ratings-wise)

    …or the NFL outcome of Michigan recruits by their relative star ratings:

    As Recruit Players Rnds 1-3 Rnds 4-7 UDFA+ UDFA No NFL
    ☆☆☆☆☆ 17 9 (53%) 2 (12%) 1 (6%) 2 (12%) 3 (18%)
    ☆☆☆☆½ 64 9 (14%) 12 (19%) 3 (5%) 9 (14%) 31 (48%)
    ☆☆☆☆ 110 17 (15%) 16 (15%) - 1 (1%) 76 (69%)
    ☆☆☆½ 85 2 (2%) 7 (8%) - 1 (1%) 75 (88%)
    ☆☆☆ 113 4 (4%) 7 (6%) 1 (1%) - 101 (89%)
    ☆☆ 14 - - 1 (7%) - 13 (93%)
    Walk-on 26 1 (4%) 1 (4%) - - 24 (92%)

    Or how attrition is going:

    image

    (it has stayed relatively low compared to Rodriguez and Carr)

    image

    (few players are leaving without degrees)

    If you download and play around a bit you can quickly find things like which players each recruiting service adored/didn’t think much of relative to each other:

    Rivals Scout ESPN 247

    Loved

    Steve Breaston Paul Sarantos Marques Walton Benjamin St-Juste
    Conelius Jones Austin White Rueben Riley Cameron McGrone
    Kevin Koger Andrew Stueber Junior Hemingway Nate Johnson
    Jeremy Gallon De'Veon Smith Ja'Raymond Hall Oliver Martin
    Alex Mitchell Patrick Omameh Isaiah Bell Jaylen Mayfield

    Hated

    Ja'Raymond Hall Kingston Davis Kevin Koger Austin White
    Andrew Stueber Alex Mitchell Brandon Smith Conelius Jones
    Brandon Watson Keith Washington Dennis Norfleet Brad Robbins
    Paul Sarantos Gabe Watson Boubacar Cissoko Myles Sims
    Ronnie Bell Reuben Jones Rocko Khoury Zach Gentry

    --------------------------------

    Direct Recruiting Comparisons

    There’s also a second table that shows all of the recruiting data that went into my composite rankings, if you want to quickly compare where the sites put Luke Schoonmaker to Sean McKeon (they’re nearly identical):

    image

    …or place Cam McGrone among Michigan’s all-time linebacker recruits:

    image

    …or settle an argument with the guy who said Mike Hart was “just a three-star”:

    image

    (he was only barely)

    …or just pull up a quick list of who’s eligible for this year’s NFL draft. I mostly use it to put the new recruits in context. Like it’s good to know Christian Turner is basically tied with Chris Evans, that Aidan Hutchinson ended up almost exactly where Ryan Van Bergen was rated, and that Jarrod Wilson and Gemon Green wound up right where Benjamin St-Juste did (German Green is down in the JT Floyd/Courtney Avery/James Rogers region). Seeing a handful of former players whose careers (and ceilings) I’m familiar with is more helpful to placing a croot than where he stands among the thousands of high schoolers of his own year whom I haven’t seen.

    --------------------------------

    Starter Data

    Lastly I updated the starter data with 2017 starts, which by the way featured a lot of stuff like three tight ends or three fullbacks. Those atypical start formations are more helpful than hurtful—it’s accurate to say that Gentry and McKeon were more active in the passing game, for example, than Eddie McDoom or Nate Schoenle.

    You may remember last year was a crazy low bar for starts returning. Things are getting back to normal. Rather than a historically green team Michigan will have a slightly below averagely experienced team:

    image

    The big difference you can’t see here is the distribution of OL starts: last year almost all of the returning OL experience was concentrated in one guy; this year it’s spread out among six dudes: Bredeson, Ruiz, Onwenu, JBB, Ulizio, and Runyan.

    The last bit highlights a flaw in reading returning starts without context: there aren’t many years in trackable Michigan history in which any of those guys would have gotten extensive playing time. It also hides regular contributors who didn’t technically start—2016 Maurice Hurst being the case example.

    Digging down to game-by-game start data gives us a clearer, albeit imperfect, sample of what was on the field. And last year—to the surprise of nobody—it was historically young.

    image

    Let’s put those bars in context: the average starter for Michigan last year on both units was younger than a redshirt sophomore. Only twice in the last 20 years did any one unit dip below that mark: the 2008 offense, and the 2009 defense. I’m sure I don’t have to remind you how that went.

    The bad news here is the offense at least is in for another year of historical youngness, quite likely falling below even this year. I plugged the following projection of 2018 starts: Patterson (13), Evans (6), Higdon (7), Mason (8), McKeon (11), Wheatley (2), Gentry (7), Eubanks (1), Black (10), DPJ (8), Crawford (1), and an OL of Newsome-Bredeson-Ruiz-Onwenu-Hudson, and it came out at an average year in program of 2.67, barely above 2008.

    Does it matter? With the exception of 1997, the peak years do seem to correlate to the teams playing the guys who’ve been around awhile: 1999, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2011, 2012, and 2016. On the other hand Ohio State managed to put up a strong offense in 2016 despite a similarly young roster, though it should be noted they were operating under an experience QB and the young players were holes that got exploited by better teams.

    (I never know what to do here with transfers who’ve started at previous stops. Considering the performance of said transfers when they have played, the most accurate thing to do is to just throw that data out—after all they’re new to the system.)

    The other interesting thing I can do with starter data is to check personnel shifts. In the past I used it to show the relative mass on the field between coaches. But the Harbaughification of the offense is clear in other ways, like starting more tight ends:

    AVG Skill Position Personnel at First Snap
    Season(s) RBs FBs TEs WRs
    Carr 0.99 0.62 1.27 2.11
    Rodriguez 1.22 0.14 0.78 2.86
    Hoke 0.98 0.45 1.12 2.45
    2015 1.02 0.94 1.09 1.95
    2016 1.00 0.69 1.77 1.54
    2017 0.92 0.77 1.92 1.38

    image

    Anyway if you want to download your own copy of my data and play with it, you’re welcome to it. Just share your findings in the diaries.

    Comments

    Basketball Depth Chart By Class

    Basketball Depth Chart By Class

    Submitted by Seth on January 11th, 2018 at 4:44 PM

    As requested by DualThreat:

    MICHIGAN BASKETBALL DEPTH BY CLASS 2017-’18

    Pos Commits Freshmen
    (c/o 2022)
    Sophomores
    (c/o 2021)
    Juniors
    (c/o 2020)
    Seniors
    (c/o 2019)
    PG (3)   D.DeJulius E.Brooks Z.Simpson  
    SG (2)   A.Nunez J.Poole    
    SF (2) J. Wilson I.Brazdeikis   C.Matthews*  
    PF (2)   B.Johns I.Livers    
    C (3)   C.Castleton A.Davis* J.Teske  
    Total 1 5 4 3 0

    projected starters in bold, returning starters in italics.
    walk-ons denoted with # unless they've clearly graduated from that distinction,
             redshirts denoted with *, currently redshirting denoted with (R)
    links take you to articles that player is tagged in

    Allotted: 12/13 

    Recruits: 1

    Rostering 2017

    Rostering 2017 Comment Count

    Seth January 4th, 2017 at 4:05 PM

    By timeless tradition, going all the way back to the very first post-Harbaugh offseason at Michigan, our people recount the story of Jake Rudock’s exodus from Iowa, update the Grand Google Sheet, and see what it can tell us about this year and the future.

    Whereas, at the end of the 2014 Iowa football season Kirk Ferentz released an unprecedented post-bowl depth chart just for the sake of putting C.J. Beathard in front of most-of-the-time starter Jake Rudock. This accomplished several things: Beathard’s dad, who’d put some transfer noise in a local Tennessee paper, was placated, and the People of Rudock took the hint to grad transfer the hell out of Egypt. After wandering in the desert, the spiritual, spiritually 40-year-old Rudock was chosen by Harbaugh to lead the people of Ann Arbor to the promised land Citrus Bowl.

    In honor of the old Pharaoh’s great dick move, I present this year’s post-bowl Foe Film diagram, now with 100% more mustache.

    image

    [Click to biggen make]

    I’ve also updated the great spreadsheet of players going back to the class of 1993, with all that recruiting and attrition and start data.

    Use as you like—I’ll keep it updated as the offseason progresses so you can use it for diaries or fact-finding.

    [Hit THE JUMP for a chart party.]

    Comments

    Rostering 2016

    Rostering 2016 Comment Count

    Seth January 12th, 2016 at 3:17 PM

    In honor of Ferentz. Last year after neither starting quarterback did much good in their bowl game, Iowa released an unprecedented post-bowl depth chart listing C.J. Beathard as the starting quarterback over Jake Rudock. The PR gesture had two effects: 1) placated Beathard's dad who'd been making threatening transfer noises in a Tennessee paper, and 2) gave Rudock a concrete sign to seek playing time elsewhere.

    In honor of Kirk Ferentz's noble and unselfish dick move, I hereby give you a post-bowl Fee Fi Foe Film diagram of just Michigan's guys. Rudock, you'll note, has again been put in his proper place: among the stars.

    image

    click embiggens.

    While we're at it, I figured I might as well clean up the roster data spreadsheets I use to keep track of things like what happened to Michigan's recruiting classes, attrition, redshirts, position switches, and starts, with historical data going back to the 1997 team. Link is here.

    Check the tabs for 2016 scholarships, starter data and walk-ons. I'll keep this updated over the offseason if you'd like to use it for diaries or fact-finding. For example if you want to see how attrition cut into Michigan's classes since 1994:

    image

    (click big)

    Or with a little more playing around…

    Enjoy.

    Comments

    Fall Roster Overanalysis 2015!

    Fall Roster Overanalysis 2015! Comment Count

    Seth August 28th, 2015 at 12:06 PM

    They handed out the new phonebooks at yesterday's presser, and the internet managed to captured a shot of them before Steve Martin made off with the lot:

    slack_for_ios_uploadslack_for_ios_upload(1)

    You'll have to click for big. But I've already updated the master spreadsheet with all of it. Remember the rules: all weight gain is burley muscle that won't slow them down AT ALL, and all weight loss is a guy in the best shape of his life who's going to do crazy fast things as his new svelte self.

    TO THE SPREADSHEETS!

    Quarterbacks
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Jake Rudock         203      
    Shane Morris   201 204 209 208   +3 +4
    Wilton Speight     234 235 239     +5
    Zach Gentry       230 244      
    Alex Malzone       218 222      
    John O'Korn         209      
    Running Backs
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Drake Johnson 203 213 211 207 210 +10 -2 -1
    De'Veon Smith   224 220 228 228   -4 +8
    Derrick Green   240 220 234 225   -20 +5
    Ty Isaac     225 240 228     +3
    R.Taylor-Douglas     189 186 193     +4
    Karan Higdon       190 189      
    Joe Kerridge 244 238 244 249 248 -6 +6 +4
    Sione Houma 221 231 242 243 242 +10 +11 -
    Wyatt Shallman   237 239 244 245   +2 +6
    Bobby Henderson   227 236 240 245   +9 +9
    Receivers
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Amara Darboh 218 212 211 216 215 -6 -1 +4
    Jehu Chesson 183 196 197 207 200 +13 +1 +3
    Jaron Dukes   190 197 204 204   +7 +7
    Da'Mario Jones   192 196 199 195   +4 -1
    Drake Harris     176 174 181     +5
    Freddy Canteen     176 185 182     +6
    Maurice Ways     195 205 210     +15
    Brian Cole       200 207      
    Grant Perry       185 184      
    Tight Ends
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    A.J. Williams 282 265 260 285 275 -17 -5 +15
    Jake Butt   237 249 248 250   +12 +1
    Khalid Hill   258 252 252 263   -6 +11
    Henry Poggi   260 270 273 266   +10 -4
    Ian Bunting     227 243 252     +25
    Chase Winovich     220 227 235     +15
    Tyrone Wheatley Jr.       260 291      
    Offensive Line
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Graham Glasgow 305 303 311 303 301 -2 +8 -10
    Kyle Kalis 292 302 298 292 305 +10 -4 +7
    Erik Magnuson 290 285 294 296 305 -5 +9 +11
    Ben Braden 319 318 322 331 322 -1 +4 -
    Blake Bars 282 291 294 281 290 +9 +3 -4
    Patrick Kugler   287 299 297 302   +12 +3
    David Dawson   297 296 309 316   -1 +20
    L. Tuley-Tillman   300 290 309 302   -10 +12
    Mason Cole     292 287 305     +13
    J. Bushell-Beatty     319 319 325     +6
    Grant Newsome       280 300      
    Jon Runyan Jr.       275 304      
    Nolan Ulizio       293 291      
    Defensive Line
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Ryan Glasgow 285 300 296 297 300 +15 -4 +4
    Willie Henry 302 306 293 311 307 +4 -13 +14
    Mario Ojemudia 223 250 251 252 252 +27 +1 +1
    Chris Wormley 268 289 295 300 303 +21 +6 +8
    Matthew Godin 270 280 286 287 288 +10 +6 +2
    Tom Strobel 250 265 268 270 282 +15 +3 +14
    Taco Charlton   270 275 273 285   +5 +10
    Maurice Hurst Jr.   270 282 281 282   +12 -
    Lawrence Marshall     241 238 250     +9
    Bryan Mone     312 325 320     +8
    Brady Pallante     263 276 280     +17
    Shelton Johnson       225 212      
    Reuben Jones       225 222      
    Linebackers
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    R. Jenkins-Stone 206 225 234 240 245 +19 +9 +11
    Allen Gant 196 212 223 225 227 +16 +11 +4
    Desmond Morgan 230 228 232 236 244 -2 +4 +12
    James Ross III 225 220 227 232 241 -5 +7 +14
    Joe Bolden 224 225 231 232 237 +1 +6 +6
    Mike McCray   237 241 242 240   +4 -1
    Ben Gedeon   236 240 241 248   +4 +8
    Dan Liesman   215 229 233 228   +14 -1
    Noah Furbush     210 217 242     +32
    Jared Wangler     219 230 231     +12
    Safeties
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Jarrod Wilson 195 200 205 210 210 +5 +5 +5
    Jeremy Clark 191 205 205 205 210 +14 - +5
    Delano Hill   205 205 204 212   - +7
    Dymonte Thomas   190 193 191 195   +3 +2
    Jabrill Peppers     202 205 208     +6
    Tyree Kinnel       200 201      
    Cornerbacks
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Terry Richardson 154 167 170 174 175 +13 +3 +5
    Wayne Lyons         197      
    Jourdan Lewis   170 175 176 175   +5 -
    C. Stribling   171 178 178 181   +7 +3
    Reon Dawson   170 178 175 181   +8 +3
    Brandon Watson     188 189 191     +3
    Keith Washington       175 170      

    [jump for items of interest and interest]

    Comments

    Dear Diary Takes Charge[s]

    Dear Diary Takes Charge[s] Comment Count

    Seth August 3rd, 2015 at 4:56 PM

    Got a bunch of events and site business to go over today:

    See you in this: We FINALLY got the J-Mo one done and approved and for sale:

    You have no idea how many conversations can be had about a bracketed 's'. Take the biggest number you could think of, then think of more. In two years we should finally have approval on the Harbaugh Pyramid of Greatness, by which time all of humanity will have weighed in on whether parentheticals are necessary.

    See you Friday: We're going to be at Literati at 7 this Friday, doing whatever they do at book readings except this one we talk about Michigan football. But you can totally omit that last bit and sound cultured to your Ann Arbor friends when you say you want to be at this book reading downtown. If they press, it's the story of a lonely and misunderstood middle aged man who returns to his hometown from years of rule by a company that didn't know how to use guards correctly.

    Brian will see you in D.C.: Brian will be there next week, speaking at the alumni association's get-together on Tuesday, August 11. While we're on the capital's alumni association club, if you're going to the Maryland game, that will be the association's big annual away tailgate.

    See you for homecoming. We've been invited to the big homecoming tailgate with the alumni association, noon to 3:30 before the Northwestern game (10/10). We talked it over and decided not to ever get company polos for it, but we do have plans to wear snarky t-shirts. And to put Brian on stage. You'll find David and me over by the TVs since there are at least three noon Big Ten games.

    Diaries:

    Football on the decline? Is this a stupid question?

    I didn't open any of the threads where this popped up this week (I think somebody had a poll), but BlueBlood2991 was recovering from surgery so he tried to answer it by comparing population shifts and economic changes to high school football participation.

    There is of course some correlation, but he explains population shift as the primary factor behind huge leaps in football participation in Georgia and North Carolina. This could be a fallacy: Ad hoc, ergo propter hoc. It could be an effect of money moving into new-build suburban communities, and parents using sports to put their kids in social situations, or the kids using sports to prove their worth to their new schoolmates. Football interest is hard to show in participation except over longer than a decade periods. But who's participating is interesting:

    image

    Again, correlation does not imply causation. Less educated families may be poorer, thus less able to afford sports, especially football which does get quite expensive even if your school provides most of the equipment (very few do).

    Etc. Alum96 is on to M00N with his previews. MaizeJacket had a counterproposal to my "let's everyone join one conference then dictate terms" plan—I like his "Challenge" idea but like a lot of good ideas it won't happen because teams want to schedule as many games as possible way ahead of time.

    Best of the Board:

    They don't mention puking on the recruiting trips:

    From a story by Bennie Joppru about practicing with Carr. This part comes after four puking sessions:

    I went back to the dorms in south quad and started to pack my clothes. "I'm heading back home to Minnesota and I'll walk on and be a Gopher". I knew I couldn't walk out the front on the dorm with my clothes so I threw my bag out the 12 floor window and walk down the stairwell, avoiding the elevator. I got the first taxi I saw and said "take me to the bus station". 

    I got to the bus station only to find out I was 25 dollars short of a ticket. This was 1998 so CD's were as good as money then and I had plenty. I told the ticket guy if he gave me the 25 dollars I needed for a ticket he could have any 10 CD's he wanted.

    Of course he picked all of my favorite CD's, but I had my ticket, no more puking I thought to myself.

    Then a man tapped him on his shoulder. For those who don't know already, Joppru is basically what would happen if a blogger had football talent.

    Rostering!

    Back when they could still get away with selling me the opportunity to play as Denard without paying Denard, EA would make some minor tweak to its NCAA game, maybe add some stupid feature like emails from your mom or mascot teams, and basically sell you the updated roster pack as a new game every year.

    Since they're still working out how to make this game while paying the people who make it so valuable, the internet has taken over and done a better job for free. The roster pack is basically going to be this year's game. I'll have a full post on it. All hail those of you who worked on it.

    Preposterous Stolen Victories Over Northwestern Now Worth Half

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    Not all 50/50s are created equal: @Maryland is looking like 60/40, BYU/Utah the opposite.

    Saturdayedge's annual Big Ten betting prospectus (it's free but only with an email signup – NOW with non-depressing cover!) came out last week. The writing is very cliché, and they seem to be too fixated on recruiting stars, but I always value the betters' perspectives because accuracy really is their prime motivation. That Michigan averaged 5.25 points under the spread (by far the worst in the conference) should come as no surprise, nor that the two rivals, even at home, are the two near-guaranteed losses.

    This is something I haven't seen in a Michigan preview in a long time:

    Strength – The Running Game: Running backs De’Veon Smith, Derrick Green, Drake Johnson and Ty Isaac can all produce if they get the chance.

    He mentions the O-line should be decent and Harbaugh teams always run well, but unless this means "knows how to run into a gaping hole (sometimes)" that seems overoptimistic. He also joins Shane Morris on an extremely short list of people who think Shane Morris might start. Anyway for those who can't corner Jamie Mac on the regular, a free and at least fly-by informed gamblers' perspective on the conference is worth your time.

    Unless you're drafting against me in Draftageddon in which case you should read only preseason award watch lists and ESPN's Top 25 list. Tommy Armstrong's still on the board, Adam!

    Not a new pos-bang record:

    WD is an internet obsessive, which as an internet obsessive who is friends with many internet obsessives I have great appreciation for. But then, that was a bit much:

    image

    The post that currently holds the pos record is 465/0 to the turn-based RPG gif by chunkums. Chunkums is LEGEND. Upvotes go away after a time but I made sure to catch that one when it did so a few years ago.

    Etc. Liz, our podcast sponsor, made a Top 5 hottest college coaches, because Liz.

    Your Moment of Zen:

    This guy does hype videos well.

    Comments

    The Freshmen Have Numbers 2015

    The Freshmen Have Numbers 2015 Comment Count

    Seth June 9th, 2015 at 11:14 AM

    Guess what jerks?

    This morning the freshmen got their numbers, and started telling people. Lorenz posted those he was able to gather, which was all but the transfers, Ulizio, and Shelton J. (Warning: 247 autoplays videos on their pages so mute first if you don't want blang blang blaring through your speakers).

    May your obsessive compulsive videogame rosters be accurate, and your visions of greatness now come a bit more into focus around the chest and back areas. I'll update this as more come in today.

    Freshman #s:

    # Name P Hgt. Wgt. You may remember this digit from…
    10 Zach Gentry QB 6'6" 230 Tom Brady of course, but also Todd Collins, Jeff Cohen, and friend of the blog Kyle Anderson. Da'Mario Jones was wearing this through spring so looks like he'll have a new jersey.
    12 Alex Malzone QB 6'2" 205 (Spring) Surprisingly few 12's have remained such through graduation (Grbac and Gardner both wore it for a time). Dreisbach was the last QB to do so.
    22 Karan Higdon RB 5'10" 190 Harbaugh era mooseback Gerald White is the only RB I can remember wearing it.
    81 Brian Cole WR 6'2" 190 (Spring) Historically a TE # at Mich (I always think of Kattus). Was C'sonte's
    9 Grant Perry WR 6'0" 183 Dileo, Diallo, Martavious Odoms, and Mercury Hayes. And of course "The Rece" Butler
    8 Tyrone Wheatley Jr. TE 6'6" 245 Wore 9 in HS. Little round number on a big Wheatley body? I'm a fan. (Walk-on Joe Hewlett gave it up)
    77 Grant Newsome OL 6'7" 280 Lewan, Long, Pape, Jansen, Jenkins, Trgovac, Tabachino, Guy Curtis, Art Walker...
    75 Jon Runyan Jr. OL 6'4" 275 Sr wore 69, Jr wore this in HS. Last great interior OL to wear 75 was Baas. OTs include Schofield, Skrepanak, Yearby, and Bubba Paris.
    70 Nolan Ulizio OL 6'5" 293 Wore 70 in HS. Bobby Doherty is the one that springs to mind; Mark Erhardt wore it during Harbaugh years.
    ? Shelton Johnson SDE 6'5" 225 Waiting on #. Wore 7 in high school; I doubt Poggi gives it up.
    4 Reuben Jones WDE 6'4" 225 Less weird when you consider he'll be playing a role not too different from Cam Gordon's. Of course you remember a certain quarterback who wore this.
    17 Tyree Kinnel SS 5'11" 197 "Wolf" Dwight Hicks wore it in the '70s, J.O.W. in the early '90s.
    6 Keith Washington CB 6'2" 175 You remember Donovan Warren. One back you certainly don't remember wearing this was Harry Kipke when he played for Yost (he wore it one year).
    16 Andrew David K 5'8" 170 M used to leave 19 for kickers (Bob Bergeron, Remy Hamilton, Mike Gilette). Andrew's the first 16.

    Nothing yet from the transfers but their previous numbers were all available-ish except O'Neill's.

    Name Prev # Pos Starts Elig You may remember this digit from...
    Jake Rudock 15 QB 25 Grad transfer Garrett Moores would have to move. Grbac obviously, also Loeffler.
    John O'Korn 5 QB 16 So (RS) Other than Tate you mean? Johnny Wangs! Walk-on Kenny Sloss will have to give it up.
    Wayne Lyons 24 CB 20 Grad transfer Took Blake's spot, took Woodson's NFL # – several safeties (Bobby Abrams, Charles Drake RIP) but I can't think of a CB other than Hollowell.
    Blake O'Neill 39 P 12 Grad transfer Finley! Complication: Houma wears this and plays punt coverage in case you forgot this.

    Comments

    On Numbers

    On Numbers Comment Count

    Seth April 14th, 2015 at 10:33 AM

    If you were to sort everything in the world by a factor of how much I pay attention to it vs. actual importance, what jersey numbers Michigan players wear is probably just below and to the left of Alan Trammell's snub.

    important

    His career was merely "average" for a Hall of Fame shortstop

    If you don't care, I respect that; here's a report from BBC news on the rising nuclear tensions in South Asia that probably matters a lot to the long-term stability of the region and the horrifying possibility that our species might some day wipe out the better portion of the lifeforms we know of. If you do care who wears the numeral we associate with Woodson, maybe read up enough on the arms deal first so people will know you've got your priorities straight. All set? Alright here's what I think we should do with the Legends numbers.

    The Legends Question

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    Earn it, Keith

    I don't think anybody knows what they'll do with the program now. Hackett seems earnest in this evaluation period. I also have an idea where some of the pushback is coming from, since former players—in email groups, in private, and some publically—are a key demographic against them. Part of that's a get-off-my-lawn attitude among older guys regarding the over-attention paid to jersey numbers by kids these days. Part of it's the same jarring fan sensation of having long associations undone—the Kovacs Principle—and part of it's a new guy wearing sacrosanct numbers every year. I saw more complaints about Funchess wearing 87 while not blocking than Moore wearing it while not playing.

    I wish they would keep this program, but only for underclassmen. The Seth Plan:

    • Establish a set of attainable criteria for each number. Past Legends have input but this shouldn't be the Braylon gauntlet—that worked for Braylon because Carr tailored it specifically to Braylon.
    • Establish a set of higher criteria for getting added to the patch.
    • Underclassmen interested in wearing a Legends number apply to their coaches
    • Number must be earned before a player either starts his 15th game, or reaches the end of his sophomore season of eligibility, whichever comes first.
    • Back-elevate past Michigan greats based on Legends criteria.
    • Add 2 (for Woodson, defensive backs), 77 (for OTs: Lewan, Long, Jansen, Jenkins), 46 (Harry Newman, for special teams players), and 27 (Benny Friedman, for quarterbacks) to the program. Make 98 for running backs.
    • Establish a set of criteria for having a new number Legendsized (so future HSPs can hope to wear #5)

    I imagine if more than one young player wants the same number Harbaugh won't mind competition.

    Projecting the Fall Arrivals

    I used to try this every year: attempt to predict numbers for the new guys to wear. Before MGoBlog it was an annual rite of rostering the new NCAA game. Last year I missed it; in 2013 I went 12 for 22 with the scholarship guys, but that was in June when some guys already knew their numbers. This year I'm gonna try to do it early and honestly.

    [My methodology and sure-to-be-incorrect predictions, after the jump]

    Comments