THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#21 Michigan (7-5, 1-1 Big Ten) vs #103 Rutgers (7-5, 1-1 Big Ten)	[Patrick Barron]
WHERE	The RAC Piscataway, NJ
WHEN	7 PM Eastern Tuesday 1/4
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -4 Torvik: M -5
TELEVISION	BTN

THE OVERVIEW

Rutgers has a win over Purdue and a loss to Kenpom #299 Lafayette. Also it weird Rutgers results: ten point win over Kenpom #38 Clemson, losses to two more teams outside the Kenpom top 100 (DePaul and UMass). They've been hammered by Illinois and Seton Hall. In conclusion, Rutgers is a land of contrasts.

It's also the same guys, more or less, as last year's Rutgers team.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

The banana peel on Jones can come off if he gets his TO rate under 20. Getting there.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Rutgers. Rutgers never changes.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Apologies for the relative brevity here: COVID school closures, hurray. Anyway: Rutgers! Ron Harper! Geo Baker! A guy named Omoruyi! Headbands! It's Rutgers! Yes seriously Geo Baker is still in college!

 

[Campredon]

But uh yeah this is the same Rutgers team doing the same Rutgers things. Geo Baker is Geo Baker. Tough shot maker, guy who has to take way too many tough shots because he's allergic to the rim. He's shooting 44/39 early but is likely to revert to around 30% from deep like he's been the last two years, because the average quality of his shot is going to go down in Big Ten play. He will still hit a large number of long pull-ups that you can't really do anything about.

I mean… he's Geo Baker? Do I need to talk more about Geo Baker? Y'all probably know him better than your grandparents at this point.

Ron Harper Jr is another familiar name. Harper briefly looked like an all Big Ten player last year and potential NBA departure before settling down into a guy just outside that range. Harper's always been a remarkably turnover-averse player for a guy who embarks on so many difficult forays into the lane, but his lack of lateral agility means that he spends a lot of time trying to finish over guys. He's very large, so that's historically gone well. He was 65% at the rim last year and while this year's number is 20 points lower that's got to be a fluke.

Like Baker, Harper takes and makes a large number of tough shots. That puts a ceiling on his efficiency, but given the context that efficiency is impressive. If Harper's three point shooting is able to stick around 40%—where it's hovering early—after spending the last couple years at 35% and 31% that would be a major development for Rutgers and Harper's NBA chances, but it's early yet.

Cliff "Not Eugene" Omoruyi has ascended to the starting center job after Myles Johnson transferred to UCLA. Omoruyi mostly dunks on people off assists but he does get a chunk of his points by posting up. These aren't going very well so far—he's shooting just 36% after generating his own shot. He is excelling at finishing off of PNR action and off cuts.

Omoruyi is not the same level of defender Johnson is. Johnson combined a top 20 block rate with a significant number of steals without being unplayable due to foul trouble; Omoruyi is not making the same level of box score contributions on defense. Synergy individual defensive numbers, grain of salt, all that, but we do put credence on the post numbers and last year Omoruyi was 19th percentile as a post defender. He's improved a great deal this year—players do get better—but against generally weak competition. Trevion Williams and Zach Edey combined to go 14/24, FWIW. Both guys had 40% usage. Sooooo Rutgers is not doubling the post.

Wing Caleb McConnell is a defensive specialist who should try to stay out of the way on offense and doesn't always. Last year he hit 38/20; this year he's at 41/15, and last year my dude put up a fifth of Rutgers shots when he was on the floor. That's a totally normal number, which is not normal when your ORTG is in the 80s. This year he's a starter instead of a sixth-man type and while the shot frequency has come down the turnovers have gone up, leaving him at more or less the same place.

McConnell had a top 50 steal percentage last year and is currently in the top 20 nationally, so watch your wallet when he's out there.

Junior Paul Mulcahy spent his first couple years as a tiny usage guy with a huge turnover rate and has struggled early as Rutgers puts more on him. He shot 55/39 last year, albeit on a sample that was barely over 100 shots total. This year he's scuffling along at 36/29 because he's shooting 47% at the rim. Yikes. Double yikes given the prevalence of meatballs on the Rutgers schedule to date.

The Rutgers bench:

• You may remember Aundre Hyatt from the LSU game last year; he's a 6'6" burlywing who's shooting 50/25 for his career but persists in taking threes. He fits the burlywing profile to a T: main statistical asset is OREBs, black hole on offense, chips in some blocks.
• Redshirt freshman stretch four Jaden Jones played a total of eight minutes last year. This year he's getting about a third of Rutgers minutes, shoots 47/21, and has vanishingly small A/TO/OREB/DREB rates. Dude is 6'8" and has a DREB rate under 6. This is likely a statistical fluke but dang.
• Spindly wing Mawot Mag is bascially Jones except he's not taking nearly as many threes and turns the ball over a significant amount.
• Ralph Gonzalez-Agee and Dean Reiber back up Omoruyi. Gonzalez-Agee is a San Jose State transfer who's 6'8" and wide; he is a below the rim guy who was able to carve out efficient two pointers in the Mountain West but probably won't go Austin Davis on Michigan. Reiber barely has a statistical profile; what exists indicates he is a high-TO stiff.

THE TEMPO FREE

Well, it's Rutgers:

Can't shoot, doesn't try that much (328th in threes launched), tough interior defense (31st in 2P% allowed), gives up a lot of threes, grit and grit and grit and grit. The usual.

THE KEYS

Mmm mean reversion. I mean Michigan has problems but nobody has "8/8 from three in a half" problems. This is especially relevant going up against Rutgers, who will have their top two guys jacking up some stuff that Michigan can't really contest except notionally. The shots will either go in or not.

Some four-shaped person could exist, or get replaced. Houstan against UCF: one point. Johns: 0. If Houstan's not going to be a plus offensively he's unplayable, and we did finally see some movement there as Houstan dropped to 25 minutes after having at least 33 in every non tomato-can game before UCF. It doesn't seem like Johns is the answer there but maybe more three-guard lineups featuring Kobe Bufkin would be less prone to defensive blow-bys.

Find the baba yaga and apologize for stealing her plants. Couldn't hurt?

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 4.