THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

This California State school has been trying to figure out its name for most of its existence. Long Beach State, formerly Los Angeles-Orange County State, alternatively LBSU or CSULB, has also spent the last decade trying to move away from their mascot name, the 49ers, and even further from their school paper's sub-nickname, The Dirtbags. Officially they're still the 49ers, but since 2017 they've been just calling themselves The Beach. As in that's the team name. This is what they do. They beach.

(Also they play in a blue pyramid.)

Over his 14 years at Barbie Movie U coach Dan Monson has usually put Beach in contention for the Big West crown. Last year was a step back as Beach finished 7th (11-9) in-conference, but they were an upset loss to rival Fullerton away from the NCAAs two years ago. The new upstarts who powered that team are still around, as well as all but two of last year’s contributors. Data points this season are a 77-73 win at #166 DePaul and losses at #145 Portland and #31 San Diego State, that last on Tuesday night. SDSU caused a bunch of turnovers to open a 12-point lead and coasted thereon.

Michigan is coming home off an emphatic win in Madison Square Garden over a Ship of Theseus St. John's team playing its second game under Rick Pitino. That team was talented, but also still wearing nametags in practice. Beach will be a sharp contrast: older, shorter, and far less recruited players who've been playing together for three to fifteen years. The script writes itself.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

The one with the pretty sneakers gets the Hermes Shoes. Meep-Meep! Also Coach Juwan Howard has been with the team but hasn't been coaching the games after bypass surgery last summer. Phil Martelli's been filling in ably.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

The Beach are very much a beach volleyball team, with a couple of paint-bound brothers at the forward spots, two backfielders who will serve every ball at the net that they get their hands on, and a former Stanford walk-on they all try to ignore. They’re at their best when they can run up the tempo, and really bog down when they can’t.

Their leading points engine is Disaster Factory™ Marcus Tsohonis, who will launch a three on any opportunity, and take a two-point jumper on any opportunity. The former Washington and VCU shooting guard transferred to the Beach last year and promptly hoovered up 30% of LBSU’s possessions. He’s a 38% shooter when he’s not the offensive focal point but that shot went cold for him last year as the main option. Run him off the arc and stay in front of him and Tsohonis will jack up a two that’s as likely to go in off a put-back as on its own. His turnover rate is deceptively normal (this year it’s even good), but when you strip out bottom-200 opponents his assist rate plummets to 8.2 and his TO rate balloons to 22%. When you raise the bar to Tier A competition (UCLA, USC, North Texas, and Utah Valley last year, plus SDSU this year) that A-TO ratio is a miserable 5/29. Wheeeee!

If Tsohonis doesn’t jack it up (read: if someone other than Tsohonis touches the ball), Beach Option 1 is the 6’10” Lassina Traore, who played a season at St. Louis before joining his Cote d’Ivoire academy friend (no relation) Aboubacar Traore, who’s a 6’5” old-fashioned power forward.

On a Big West scale, Lassina is a rim presence with a few paint moves who scores about a quarter of his points on putbacks. He was 17th in the country last year in defensive rebounding, and first in both categories in the Big West. His numbers on the offensive glass held up against Tier A competition, but his defensive boards went off a cliff (28 percent in conference, 19 percent vs Tier A). Also his foul rate doubles, and his 2P% falls from a scorching 57% to a miserable 42%. He’s a career 70% shooter at the line and made the one three-pointer he’s ever attempted at the college level. Most of his possessions are isolation post-ups.

Fellow Ivory Coaster Aboubacar Traore is a rare creature in modern basketball: a 6’5” defensive power forward who doesn’t shoot threes, but does just about everything else. He busted out as a true freshman on the very good 2021-‘22 team and is the one guy in this lineup whose game looks like it will translate against the step up in competition. LBSU has been using Aboubacar to run their offense this year. He’s up to 14 assists in their first three games, all with road scorers, and has been as hot as Will Tschetter from the floor. He’s also a fantastic rebounder on both ends, and unlike the bigger Traore, this one’s numbers tend to hold up against better competition. In fact he was better (12 OReb/21 DReb rate) against Tier A last year than he was in-conference (10/20). His quick hands are a constant irritation to offenses; this year he leads all players 6’5” and below with a 7.8% block rate.

SF Jadon Jones is the other holdover from that ‘21-‘22 team, for which he was a breakout sophomore. He’s an extreme but effective just-a-shooter on the offensive end, which allows him to expend huge sums of energy on defense. Jones is among the NCAA’s active leaders in steals, generates a lot of blocks, and doesn’t get whistled. He’s started to take a more active role on the other end this season, which immediately led to a spate of turnovers. Three and D it is.

There isn’t really a fourth guy they can turn to so I’ll cover the options in the bench.

The Beach bench:

• PG Isa Silva, a Stanford transfer, starts and gets about half of the minutes at the point. he is basically Dakich.
• W AJ George is a 6’6”/190 rail who needs a long time to get a three off. What he does have is a knack for getting to the basket, and array of jumpers that make him a decent late-clock option.
• PG Messiah Thompson is a tiny Alabama A&M transfer who splits minutes with Silva and will meep-meep up the court. As he learns the offense he’ll probably pass Silva, but for now he’s too much of a defensive liability.
• C Amari Stroud is a bog standard bench big who gets ~30% of minutes. His turnover rate was excellent last year and was horrific against SDSU. He will occasionally take a three.
• G Varick Lewis is a true freshman trillion candidate.

THE TEMPO FREE

Overall numbers:

The making and stopping of baskets are not their strong suit, especially from a set. They’d much rather turn the game into a sloppy transition-fest.

THE KEYS

Protect the rock. There will be a lot of arms trying to poke out Dug’s drives and whatnot. Michigan’s traditionally good in this department but there’s been a bit of sloppiness.

Blitz the arc. Because this is the only spot they have any efficiency, yes, but mostly because Reed has been RIDICULOUS as a defender and I wanna see more.

Keep protecting the boards. They shut down one of the nation’s best in New York.

Pace the game. Early season teams like to get out in transition but The Beach get stuck in the sand (ha!) in half-court sets.

The vibes are immaculate. Basketball’s one-year turnaround has been so uncanny Ryan Day’s PI is investigating which low-level staffer’s goofy hustle is responsible.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 15.