Previously: Ohio State Offense

While Ohio State's offense has taken a statistical stepback, its defense has taken a huge step forward. By SP+, this is now the country's #1 defense, posing a massive test to the Michigan offense tomorrow. Get ready for a challenge:  

 

The Film: I charted the Penn State game when I was doing the Nittany Lions, but have also watched OSU's defense when I did Maryland and Purdue, in addition to a review of the Notre Dame tape. Just like on offense, lots of tape to run with here. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

Two familiar faces from last season return as the starting EDGE defenders for Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. JTT was a starter last year, Sawyer a backup behind Zach Harrison, but both players are familiar and as juniors, have been around the block. The former 5*s have taken steps forward, still not described as NFL-level pass rushers but strong all-around players. Sawyer grades out better in the pass rushing department on PFF and drops into coverage a smidge more than JTT, who is perhaps best used as a crusher of tight ends and defeater of screens thrown at him. These two players log the vast majority of snaps at the EDGE spot but if they come off the field Kenyatta Jackson and Caden Curry will come on. They had some moments late in the game against PSU, but I do not expect them to see action much while a game is up for grabs. 

Ohio State lost the middling Taron Vincent off last year's defensive tackle spot, but returned the other three pieces from that positional group. Tyleik Williams has taken a step forward to have an excellent season, while the NT Ty Hamilton is a sharp run defender but not as strong in pass rush. That's where Michael Hall Jr. comes into play, who has been dealing with injury recently, so how healthy he will be for this game is a bit unknown. Hall is their best pure pass rusher at the DT position, with high-end burst, but sometimes that can put him in compromising spots for the run defense dimension. These three names soak up nearly all the snaps on the defensive interior, with a steep drop-off in usage to the likes of Jaden McKenzie and Hero Kanu. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: defense!]

Both starting linebackers from last season return for the Buckeyes, Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers. In terms of both my review of his performance and PFF's grading, Eichenberg has taken a step backwards. I starred him last year and made him the Dangerman of that piece, but found myself unmoved by the tape of Eichenberg this season, honestly deeming him one of the weaker cogs on the defense. His PFF grade has dropped from the mid-80s to the low-60s, which I concur with. Chambers is a player I've always been pretty low on and that hasn't changed. No cyan this year, but he is also one of the weaker members of the defense. Cody Simon is the third LB and a great blitzer from the second level, the only other 'backer to be used a lot, as 5* So CJ Hicks hasn't yet attained a sizable role in Jim Knowles' defense. 

The secondary is the part of the defense that has improved the most, starting at corner. Denzel Burke is a three-year starter on this Ohio State defense and has taken that leap to star status. I mostly chuckled at those NFL Draft projections that listed him in the first round this offseason, but I am starting to believe that it could be feasible, especially if he has a good combine. Burke has impressed me this season. Davison Igbinosun is the other outside corner, a transfer from Ole Miss who is OSU's team leader in defensive snaps this season. I think he's a solid #2 but not quite a star. At nickel, OSU is rolling out Jordan Hancock, a third year player who has had a really nice season. Between these three, I'd say Igbinosun is the relative weakness but none are weak in any tangible way. This is a good secondary, and their top reserve, Jermaine Mathews Jr., performed extremely well during Burke's time with injury. 

Unfortunately for him, Lathan Ransom will not get the opportunity to redeem himself against Michigan due to an injury that has him out for the regular season. That means it is sophomore Sonny Styles getting the start next to Josh Proctor, who is a 6th year guy. Proctor has had a dazzling swan song following an eternal Ohio State career, solidifying a starting job and showing out very nicely for the Bucks. Ransom was playing very well next to him, but now Styles, a freakishly athletic 6'4 safety, will take the reins and could be a very interesting matchup for OSU against Michigan's tight ends. Syracuse transfer Ja'Had Carter and Malik Hartford are next up at safety, but I don't have a ton of thoughts on them at this time. 

Base set: Ohio State is mostly a 4-2-5 defense, alternating between using Jordan Hancock and Sonny Styles as a nickel against Penn State, Hancock being a true DB and Styles being more HSP shaped. It generally looked like this: 

With Ransom injured and Styles moving to S, that has morphed them into more of a true 4-2-5, though using Cody Simon as a third LB is in the wheelhouse against bigger formations, as they did vs. Notre Dame: 

I did pick up one moment of using three DTs against PSU in a short yardage situation: 

But there overall wasn't a ton of interesting formation stuff to document. 

Man or zone coverage: I saw quite a coverage mix in the Penn State game, plenty of Cov1/Man but also a lot of zone as well. They played played Cov1 the most, but there was a lot of other stuff going on, with plenty of two high looks. The safest thing to assume is there will be no one look that dominates what Michigan's offense faces, but rather a variety of different coverages facing them. 

Pressure: Last year I charted something rather interesting with OSU's defense, clocking them in at 83% of snaps rushing exactly four, with marginal numbers of fewer than four and more than four. They were neither blitzy nor conservative. Then they showed up in The Game and put the aggression to the max and suffered the consequences when it went haywire. This year they clock in at 3% of snaps rushing fewer than four and 30% of snaps rushing more than four. Quite a bit more blitzy, but that actually understates it- if you exclude the final PSU drive, a score effects drive where OSU sat back and rushed four on every play, the blitz clip jumps up to 37%. They were very aggressive against Penn State, but I chalk that up mostly to being a Drew Allar thing, with the Buckeyes not respecting the Penn State QB and receivers (for good reason). 

Dangerman: This one was rather tough for me because Ohio State's defense has a ton of good players, but no one that stood out as the obvious Dangerman. Thus, I decided to shout out CB Denzel Burke, since I didn't believe in him in the past and I now think he's quite good. Burke didn't even play against PSU, but the other outings I have seen I was a fan. 

In particular, when I was scouting Maryland last week, I came away impressed with how little separation the Terrapin receivers were getting from Burke. Here's one example: 

And one I clipped for last week's FFFF: 

He also popped a receiver here to force an incompletion: 

I don't have tape from the Notre Dame to show you, and the reason is because the Irish never threw at him. PFF marked Burke down having allowed one completion on just one target. They never threw his direction, which in my view is the highest honor that can be bestowed on a corner. This was a fine PBU I documented when I charted the Purdue game: 

After a rough sophomore season, Burke is back to playing extremely well and should be garnering NFL attention. He's not elite elite, but a very good player nonetheless. His matchup with Roman Wilson is one of the pivotal areas of battle between Ohio State's defense and Michigan's offense, so I felt it was worth putting him down as the Dangerman as a result. 

 

Overview 

For this section I want to go through OSU's defense level through level, talking about what I saw in the following three categories: 

1. Pass rush 
2. Coverage 
3. Run defense 

After that, we'll tie it together and talk about a game plan to solve the Buckeye defense. 

-----

PASS RUSH 

This is perhaps the area of most concern for Michigan fans after multiple alarming performances in a row from OT Karsen Barnhart. Ohio State's two 5* EDGEs from the 2021 recruiting class, JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, have grown up and are now in their first draft-eligible campaigns. In both cases I think they are still not quite playing at the level that their recruiting profile suggested but that is not to say they aren't good players. They absolutely are. 

Sawyer is the one who PFF likes more as a rusher and he may have had the single most impactful pass rush moment of the Notre Dame game, forcing Sam Hartman to scramble on this 4th & 1, which he went out of bounds short on: 

#33, last down lineman to the top of the line

Sawyer and JTT combined to bury Penn State on this pass rush: 

You may notice the other EDGE Kenyatta Jackson in on that play, as that's a three EDGE look in a 4th & forever passing down. JTT had a good rush I clipped in the Maryland FFFF: 

#44 to the bottom of the line

I felt that JTT and Sawyer's greater effectiveness as pass rushers came in constricting the pocket and compressing it into the QB's lap than outright burn around the corner and get sacks moments. Indeed, they both have four sacks, which is a decent number but nothing incredible or indicative of NFL pass rushing acumen. Good, not great. Whether Michigan's tackles are weak enough to allow these two to get home with regularity will be a major swing factor in this game. 

On the interior, the big name to know is Michael Hall Jr., the superior pass rusher to either of the other tackles. They like to pepper in stunts as a way to get pressure, as Hall and Tyleik Williams stunt here on a 3rd and long to provide pressure: 

Those stunts were pretty effective against PSU, which I generally describe as a poorly coached OL when it comes to handling the finer details. Hall's defining trait is his elite burst, which I will show you again in run defense later on. Since I mentioned the high rate of blitzing that Jim Knowles was going to against the Nittanys, it's time to talk about that. The majority of these were LB blitzes with either Tommy Eichenberg or expert blitzer Cody Simon. Here we have a blitz with both EDGEs getting home that nearly forces an interception from Sam Hartman: 

Corner blitzes haven't been used much, with the primary outside corners having five combined pass rush snaps, per PFF, and the safeties/nickels are only in the low double digits across the full season. It's mostly the front six that brings the heat and while I don't fear for my life against any one individual rusher on this defense, everyone here is good enough that the sum of the parts will be quite a bit of fire for Michigan's offensive front to handle. There is legitimate reason to wonder whether they're up to that test. 

 

COVERAGE 

This is the area of Ohio State's defense I came away from my film review most impressed with. The secondary in particular has looked very stout this season in the matchups that I watched, be it Purdue, Maryland, PSU, or Notre Dame. I already shouted out Denzel Burke, but I think Davison Igbinosun isn't bad himself. He was generally running stride for stride with his assignments in the Notre Dame game: 

He's not a lockdown corner, but he generally does the job. If he had a tendency in the games I watched, it was to get a bit handsy, which can sometimes lead to penalties. Not a major issue, but that is something I would watch. The current nickel Jordan Hancock is someone I don't have a ton of thoughts about, other than that he's pretty good. This was a nice PBU against Penn State: 

At the safety level, I really like Josh Proctor, who had the big INT against Maryland that changed that game: 

It's been nice to see Proctor re-find his form and emerge as an impact piece for this Ohio State defense. I had him down in my charting for several more PBUs in just the PSU and ND games alone. The safeties are why Ohio State has been so good at preventing the sort of explosive passing plays that doomed them against Michigan last year, with not a single 40+ yard reception against them this season. Even the DL contribute well to pass coverage, as JT Tuimoloau remains an indestructible crusher of slip screens with his long arms and athleticism, so do not attempt to throw a screen with him in that direction. 

When you have all these players playing well, there generally hasn't been a ton of holes in the coverage, which has led to OSU's stifling pass defense numbers. Their 92.1 team coverage grade on PFF is top five in the country and no team to date has had an exceptional day passing against them. Part of that is the result of which passing offenses they've faced (mostly: bad!) but the eye test holds up. 

If there is one vulnerability here, I think it's the linebackers in coverage, which Notre Dame was able to take advantage of. Hartman was 17/25 for 175, 1 TD to 0 INT against OSU, not incredible but not bad. 7 of those 17 receptions went to Mitchell Evans the tight end, as him against OSU's LBs in coverage was a major mismatch. It was their best way to convert a 3rd down through the air: 

When they went down the field through the air, the biggest gains were targeting the middle of the field between the LBs and the safeties: 

Given the strong coverage of the outside corners and the safeties, Notre Dame had their best success dinking-and-dunking through the air and using it as a complement to their run game. The dinks and dunks went to players matched up with LBs, which you have to think is an area Michigan would like to get Donovan Edwards involved with. 

 

RUN DEFENSE

While Ohio State's pass defense has been uniformly suffocating this season, it is their run defense that has shown the most traces of cracks in the armor. Two games in particular, the Notre Dame and Rutgers contests, provide the most pieces of evidence for this. Rutgers rushed for 239 yards on 42 carries, which, even if you exclude the 45 yard run on the weird fake QB sneak, comes out to 4.7 YPC on 41 carries from an offense that features no discernible passing threat. Notre Dame didn't have any large explosives but churned out 4.5 YPC on 39 carries, running the ball extremely well in the second half of that game in particular. 

Starting with the Penn State game, Ohio State kept the Nittany Lions to 3.9 YPC, though there were a few moments of rushing success. They had one drive with two consecutive 10+ rushing plays, which seemed promising: 

But the playcalling then veered away to the pass, the drive stalled, and PSU kicked a FG. The ND and Rutgers games are perhaps more instructive, so I'm going to dip into the Notre Dame tape. The Irish were able to move the interior of the OSU defensive line around running downhill on them and this is where the LBs not being as sharp as last year stood out to me: 

Last year I thought LB Eichenberg was excellent at putting himself in situations to stop the run but he and Steele Chambers were not nearly as consistent in their run fits this year in my estimation. While OSU was holding up pretty well in short yardage early on, they were starting to wear down later on and Notre Dame was running right at them and moving the sticks: 

There were also opportunities to bounce it outside when the Buckeye EDGEs were not holding down the perimeter terribly well: 

This is not to say I think Ohio State's run defense is bad, or that any players are particularly weak. Some of the same guys who got shoved around later in the game had some really nice plays early on, like Tyleik Williams: 

I promised to show you some of Michael Hall Jr.'s elite burst and how it can benefit and also hurt him. Here he rockets into the backfield but the play goes right by him, and past a doubled Williams: 

When it comes to the QB run, I watched Taulia Tagovailoa run a bunch of zone reads against the Buckeyes, usually reading JT Tuimoloau, and found JTT very aggressive in biting on the give. Taulia executed those reads pretty well and was able to gain some yardage as a result. I think there should be some opportunities for Michigan to work the JJ run in, should he be healthy enough to uphold that aspect of the gameplan. 

I will also note that the lack of explosive runs given up by OSU this season is another testament to the secondary and safeties in particular chipping in to help the run. Finally, if there is one thing you should DEFINITELY NOT DO, it is attempt to block JTT with a TE or OL crossing the formation: 

Eliminate those plays from the playbook entirely. 

 

Tying it all together 

This is a really good Ohio State defense. They are talented, well coached, and well disciplined. They pose a stiff test for the Michigan offense, a unit that has its fair share of questions after coming off a bit of a clunker against Maryland. If I have to highlight three matchup areas to watch, it would be Roman Wilson against Denzel Burke, Michigan receiving options against OSU LBs in coverage, and Michigan run blocking against Ohio State run defense. The latter is the most critical, because if Michigan's rushing game can impose itself on Ohio State the way Notre Dame's did for stretches of that second half, it is hard not to see the Wolverines winning. 

How Ohio State chooses to defend the run will be interesting to see. Last year their strategy of loading up in the box worked for a long while, until it busted twice at the end. Were the final killshots in that game enough to make Knowles abandon that philosophy in favor of a lighter box? I presume he will be more conservative, but given how opponents have defended Michigan all season, I tend to assume that they will still be aggressive in trying to stop Michigan's rushing game. Which will leave it up to JJ McCarthy to delete some defenders. 

Using his legs is one way, but his arm needs to be humming. It goes without saying that if JJ plays as he did against Maryland, Michigan is toast. They need their QB to be playing well, because that will open up a great many things for the offense. The best ways to lighten the box to me are if Roman Wilson can get it going deep (forcing safeties to back off) and if Donovan Edwards/Colston Loveland/AJ Barner can attack the middle of the field and make linebackers respect them. Which, of course, is a long way of saying RUN SOME GODDANG PLAY ACTION. 

If JJ comes out and starts executing in rhythm, Michigan spreading the ball around, that should open up opportunities to attack in the rushing game. Of course, he will need the protection to do so and that's the great unknown. I think that the OSU EDGEs are better than last year, but not dramatically so and protection wasn't catastrophic last season. But has Karsen Barnhart suddenly fallen off a cliff he can't recover from? I'm not sure. Expect Ohio State to bring some heat, so RB blitz pickups will be important. But if JJ is given just enough time to find a rhythm and is on his game, Michigan's rushing game, if it's as good as we think it can be, should be able to replicate the Notre Dame mold and get this to the finish line.