I started fielding hoops mailbag questions for this week—feel free to submit yours by email, tweet, or in the comments—and it became clear I needed to devote a post to the end of the Oregon game. 

Juwan Howard made the bold choice to sit Jon Teske for the final 3:48 of regulation and all of overtime in favor of playing Brandon Johns, in the midst of a breakout game, at center, where he hadn't played any significant time this year. This was a risk, and one that didn't appear to pay off if you're just looking at Oregon guard Peyton Pritchard's production over those final minutes of regulation and OT—he went 6-for-7 from the field and 1-for-3 from the line in that stretch with all 13 of his points coming on drives at Zavier Simpson. Up to that point, Pritchard had shot 5/12 from the field.

The two questions at hand:

Don’t know if you’ve discussed this already, but I’m curious for your thoughts about Teske vs Johns late against Oregon, especially where Pritchard kept getting by X. Did we need Teske’s rim protection back in? Is the answer help from Johns?

— SGR (@sgeorgetter) December 17, 2019

It seemed like we always thought of Z as our best on ball defender. Do we think that's true anymore? Should we have switched someone else onto Pritchard at the end of the Oregon game?

Whose usage this year would you like to see higher? Whose should be lower? #mgomailbag

— Alex Garbarino (@DrGarbs) December 17, 2019

Whether you call him X or Z, Zavier Simpson is still Michigan's best option to defend opposing guards, full stop. We have over three years of evidence that he's an elite defender. I'm not going to question the choice to put him on Pritchard. The results weren't good, and Simpson's defense played a role in that, but that doesn't mean the decision was bad. Pritchard is a hell of a player who's stepped up his game this year; he's averaging 19 points and six assists while making 60% of his twos and 39% of his threes, remarkable efficiency for a player with high usage, much of which comes in difficult late-clock situations. 

The big issue, then, is whether putting Johns on the court in place of Teske down the stretch made sense. After going through the end of the game again, I found the choice defensible, and given the way the two had played over the course of the game entirely understandable. I also don't think it burned Michigan on defense as much as it first appeared.

[Hit THE JUMP for moving picture evidence.]

The first bucket with Johns on the floor for the final shift of regulation is a great play by Pritchard as much as anything else. Pritchard turns down a high ball screen at the perfect time to exploit M's drop coverage; Simpson has to shade over him or risk allowing an easy pull-up three behind the screener. Pritchard's inside-out dribble is a great move to threaten taking the screen before quickly attacking the basket, then he double-clutches a finish over Johns:

Maybe Teske gets a better contest on the shot; it's far from a guarantee given how well Pritchard took contact and adjusted his body for the finish. Johns could do a better job of positioning himself in the lane to deter the drive but he still manages a viable block attempt.

Pritchard's next basket comes when he doubles back after taking a screen, gets by Simpson, and hits a running floater. Johns had stopped the initial drive and recovered to his man; there's not much he can do about that shot. Ditto the next Pritchard score, a pure spread isolation on which Simpson hits the deck; if Johns anticipates Simpson getting beat and comes over, Pritchard can slip a pass to his man for a dunk. Pritchard's next point comes at the line when Simpson fouls him on the perimeter, which takes us to the end of regulation.

Pritchard's overtime exploits seemed even less on Johns. Simpson gets beat so quickly to the baseline on Pritchard's opening shot of the extra session that even if Johns comes over it's going to be a layup:

Once again, Johns help would open up a dunk opportunity, too. When the floor is this spread out, allowing blow-bys is going to be trouble.

Pritchard's next basket is on a fast break following a Simpson turnover; X isn't able to get back into the play and David DeJulius provides only token resistance on the way to the rim. The next Pritchard possession is a pick-and-roll that Johns plays beautifully:

Teske couldn't execute that any better.

Pritchard's final basket is another isolation on which he cleanly gets by Simpson. It's unreasonable to expect Johns to anticipate Pritchard getting completely past X in a couple steps. There's no good decision here:

Help and it's a dunk. Don't and maybe Simpson recovers to poke the ball away before a layup. In this case, the worst happened, as X allowed the layup and fouled Pritchard; Michigan was fortunate he missed the free throw.

Looking back, this feels like an uncharacteristically poor performance by Simpson combined with great shot-making from Pritchard. We've also only been evaluating the Teske/Johns decision on one side of the floor so far. Add in the offense and I can see why Howard went with Johns:

• To get shooting on the floor, take advantage of Johns's offensive rebounding, and maintain sound transition defense, the best option was to play Johns at center. Otherwise Michigan would've been devoting two players, one of whom isn't the fleetest of foot, to crashing the boards, opening up potential fast break buckets for Oregon.
• Teske had been passive all game, going 1-for-3 from the field with no offensive rebounds in 24 minutes. Johns had four offensive boards in only 22 minutes and had a hand in multiple "team" offensive rebounds (when the ball is knocked out of bounds by the defense, it's credited as a team rebound).
• In the final moments of regulation, Johns scored four points, two on a possession he kept alive with a rebound and two more on a feed from Simpson to send it to overtime. He had two more offensive boards in overtime, nearly tipping in the second to win the game at the buzzer.

Johns didn't play perfect defense, and it's fair to argue that Teske could've done better on a couple of those baskets. At the same time, Pritchard was simply getting the better of Simpson down the stretch to a degree that was both difficult to predict as a coach and tough to react to as a help defender.

Given what Johns was providing on the boards in a game where Michigan needed every extra possession they could get, I don't fault Howard for going with him down the stretch in a big game. Even though Michigan fell short, Johns played well, and this should add to his growing confidence. That may be the most important thing to come out of this game when we look back at the end of the season.