An attempt to diffuse the hostility - a short summary of the feelings of those underwhelmed by the Hoke hire
Brady Hoke is the head football coach at the University of Michigan. All Michigan fans wish him and the team (or should) nothing but the greatest success. However, several of us are not convinced that he will deliver on that hope. We're not rooting for him to fail; we're not trying to undermine him; we're not saying he shouldn't have taken the job; and we're not criticizing him as an individual. We're expressing disappointment and will ultimately move on.
At his press conference Hoke was asked whether Michigan was still an elite job, still an elite program. He expressed incredulity at the notion that a sane minded person could consider Michigan anything else. And we all feel that way about Michigan. For that reason, we expected the university to hire a football coach whose track record indicates with a high degree of certainty that he would succeed at Michigan.
Let's take a step back to the moment before Hoke was hired and consider whether Bob Stoops would have been a good hire. He has won a national championship, recruited nationally at a place that doesn't produce a lot of talent regionally, continually produces teams that win conference championships and contend for national championships and has done so while avoiding NCAA violations. In short, there's no reason to believe that if he coached at Michigan that he couldn't maintain that level of success. On the contrary, the evidence indicates that but for some unforeseen circumstances, the probability of his success at Michigan would have been high.
Let's next consider Tim Brewster. Brewster failed to recruit at Minnesota, he produced consistently poor teams and his coaching performance prior to Minnesota contains no evidence that he would have been a success had he been hired by Michigan.
In short, most all candidates fall somewhere on the scale between Brewster and Stoops. They all come with a certain amount of evidence that increases or decreases the likelihood that they could win at Michigan.
If we believe that Michigan is an elite job, we should also believe that Michigan is capable of hiring a coach who comes with lots of evidence that he could win at Michigan. Brady Hoke has some - he has the support of the administration and former players, he produced two great turnarounds and SDSU and Ball St. - but Bob Stoops has more.
I'm not asking for Bob Stoops; that's not the point of this diary. Rather I'm saying that for those of us disappointed in the hire, we had an idea as to the quantum of evidence we wanted to see that forecasted with high probability that the new coach would be a success, and we believe that Hoke is below that line, or that at a minimum, his resume contains less evidence than those of other potential candidates. For that reason, we are disappointed.
Say you really want to go to Harvard, and apply to there and Yale and only get into Yale. You go to Yale. You try to make the best of the situation. But that doesn't mean you don't have some disappointment that you didn't get into Harvard. As it is with Hoke. We'll make the best of the situation and support Michigan Football. But it's ok to express some disappointment.
As many have noted, prior success is not always indicative of future performance. Brady Hoke will have every opportunity to prove that whatever his resume, he has what it takes to win at Michigan. And those of us skeptical that he can do so will cheer for him with the same vigor as those most convinced that his resume is outstanding.
January 14th, 2011 at 12:26 AM ^
January 14th, 2011 at 10:21 PM ^
January 13th, 2011 at 8:17 PM ^
January 13th, 2011 at 9:33 PM ^
One of the reasons is, this feels like a return to the old ways... when Michigan would compete for conference titles, and if they won out, be out classed in the Rose Bowl.
It seems as if Brandon raised the white flag. "Well it didn't work trying to be cutting edge... lets go back to what was stable." Can a program that is safe, solid, and does things the right way... can it be elite? Will Michigan fans be ok with solid and stable?
I have not caught Hokemania. However, I am willing to give him a chance. The old system can work. It seems to work fine for Ohio State and Alabama. (Although you can argue that they are dirty programs, with an inherent advantage. So it does not matter what system they run) A better example... Michigan's destruction of Tebow and Florida, in Lloyd's last game. Michigan fans just shook their heads and asked, "Where the hell has this been all these years?"
Wrongly or rightly, Hoke is associated with the problems of the Carr era. Lions fans have already seen this "Guilt by Association". When Millen was fired, and Martin Mayhew was hired... there was a severe outcry. Fans asked, and rightfully so, "Mayhew was Millen's right hand... and now he is getting the job... are you kidding?" However, after 2 years, it seems that Mayhew actually knows what he is doing. Perhaps Hoke has learned of the mistakes of the Carr era, and from his time as a Head Coach.
I didn't want Hoke, and I have questions about the staff he is putting together. However, I will give him a chance and have an open mind. For as I have learned from watching Martin Mayhew rebuild the Lions... sometimes the safe choice does work.
January 14th, 2011 at 8:49 AM ^
I felt just the way you do at first--like we were giving up on pursuing the elite-level football success and trying to recapture "good, sometimes great, but never nationally superior." However, over the last few days I've come to accept this hire. It's hard not to like a guy that LOVES Michigan like Hoke does, and it's unfair not to at least give him a chance. Furthermore, I've been encouraged by his apparent willingness to adapt. Perhaps this is an indicator of things to come. Maybe we'll see more of that "hybrid offense" from Lloyd's final Citrus Bowl in years to come. I have to give our new coach the benefit of the doubt and hope he has the success of Lloyd Carr but builds upon it with some innovation as well, perhaps even surpassing past success.
January 14th, 2011 at 11:41 AM ^
Lloyd's "hybrid" Capital One Bowl offense?
Was it anything more than just putting Hene in the shotgun and throwing more often on early downs? It certainly was not any kind of true spread. Was it indeed some kind of West Coast-ish offense?
January 13th, 2011 at 9:43 PM ^
IMO, if Michigan were an elite job, Brady Hoke would not be its coach. You are what your record says you are...47 and 50!
January 13th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^
January 13th, 2011 at 11:56 PM ^
If Les Miles was offered the job he would be here! DB wanted BH. He is the AD and I respect his decision on selecting Brady Hoke, and will support coach Hoke for the next 4 to 5 years. I hope he can turn the program around and I will be rooting for both him and the team!
Actually, I felt bad for Brady Hoke a few weeks ago after hearing how coaching at Michigan was his dream job. I never heard this from a coach, who was coaching another team. I thought DB was going to pick Miles and I was feeling sorry for Brady since I thought he would not get his chance to coach here. Originally, I wanted to keep RR but am happy someone got the job who really wanted to be at Michigan and seem to care about the program. I hope he is very successful here but only time will tell.
January 13th, 2011 at 11:21 PM ^
Hey, I got a great idea. Let's show everybody who ran Rich Rod out of town by reversing every attack, especially if they are totally baseless! Hoke doesn't have an accent, so let's make fun of his weight and his looks! (Look, the media is tickling his belly!) Let's insist that he have everything rolling in 3 years. (See at least 2 posts above) Let's find fault with him before he starts. (His W-L record isn't up to our standards at MGoBlog.) Let's blame him if Denard leaves (even though it will because of system not Hoke). Let's nail him for every recruit he never met that decommitts. In short - let's become what we have despised for the last three years.
No thank you. He is the coach, He wasn't my first, or even second choice. But he is here now. Can we wait and judge him on what he does at Michigan? Can we rise above and treat him better than RR was? Please?
January 14th, 2011 at 12:32 AM ^
If it must be called an attack, I think it's more finding fault with the hiring process; so, if anything, an attack on Brandon.
But I don't think it's meant to be an attack at all. It's accurately titled: ". . . a short summary of the feelings of those underwhelmed by the Hoke hire". Nowhere is there any mention of Hoke's weight, looks, or decommits. His coaching record is mentioned only in the context of explaining why the author is "underwhelmed" by the hire, not as an attack on Hoke directly.
Your response is misplaced in this post. Also, I can't tell if you're being ironic with all the exclamation points.
January 14th, 2011 at 10:53 AM ^
but I hope he succeeds. I am even optomistic.
Tressel, Chizik, Carroll, etc. were all underwhelming hires at first. Very few teams are able to get an elite coach who's "already done it" somewhere else. We came as close as anybody with RR, and that turned out to be no guarantee of success.
That being said, I am extremely dissapointed with the way Hoke was hired. If all you are going to do is hire one of your boys from the past, then do it in November and don't manipulate us into believeing this was some kind of national search.
DB is a little too slick for my tastes. He's just marketing the Michigan brand like another tube of toothpaste at P&G. Everything is spin and a pat on the head. If I can trick you into believing that the blue crystals whiten your teeth, I've done my job.
One poitive thing about Hoke is that he mans up and tells it like it is. No spin. I at least hope some of that rubs off on DB.
January 13th, 2011 at 10:52 PM ^
I think the college admissions analogy is a good one, but the use of Harvard and Yale is not that apt. People getting into Yale but not Harvard are still really excited about going to Yale, even though they didn't get in to Harvard. Yale was their #2 choice and still a top-5 school and frankly getting into Yale is a tremendous accomplishment in itself.
Getting it back to football, you figure Stoops to be Harvard and say, Saban to be Yale, UM didn't get either so it's not even like Hoke is Yale, if he were, nobody but the serious hardcore Stoops (Harvard) fan would be upset. Instead what we have is UM going after say, Chicago (Harbaugh) and Duke (Miles) and getting in to Kansas (Hoke).
January 13th, 2011 at 11:47 PM ^
that life is predictable? Who would have guessed, based on his record, that RR would be anything but a slam dunk for a national title at Michigan, with all of its "elite" talent?
I remember seeing WV clobber teams and thinking, "This guy would be a great get for Michigan."
Harbaugh had a great year, but most of the Pac 10 was down this year, and for the first three, years, his record was ordinary. Who's to say he'd have been able to do more than Hoke?
Why the teeth-gnashing and ashes over the freakin' football coach who has yet to coach a single down of football here?
What we say does not change things. What we say does not affect the success of the school, or the team. I don't see any players or coaches posting on this board. Except as a small community of worriers, we were entirely irrelevant to the hiring process, and we are entirely irrelevant to the game preparation, the recruiting, the training and the playing of games except to pony up our hundred bucks or whatever we pay for tickets, and put our butts in the stands.
I, for one, love Michigan football and have for a long time. But in my very long time on this planet, two things I have learned are:
1. Worrying about what you can't control is a source of unhappiness and to be avoided.
2. Worrying about what hasn't happened and may never happen is just as pointless.
Football is entertainment and fun for spectators. That's all it is. Nothing more. The team wins or loses, not you. Not us.
So I say let's just have fun and sit back and enjoy the show, because that's a lot more fun than going into cardiac arrest over dissapointment that is actually pretty remote from our daily lives.
January 14th, 2011 at 1:57 PM ^
We would not survive if we could not make predictions. Every choice we make is based on our prediction of the best outcome. Gambling is one example. While pocket aces is the best hand pre flop, it doesn't mean you will win the hand, it just gives you a better shot. Did we hire an AA or 72 or something in between? Since what we say doesn't affect the outcome of the games, what's wrong with voicing our opinion about this hire? Isn't that the point of this blog, to discuss Michigan football?
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