Rittenberg's Latest Big Ten Bowl Projections
Adam Rittenberg, ESPN.com's Big Ten blogger has posted his latest Big Ten bowl projections. After the loss to Iowa, he has Michigan in the Insight Bowl which is played in Sun Devil Stadium on Dec 28. That's less interesting to me than his prediction for who'll end up as the Big Ten champion and Rose Bowl representative (not MSU or OSU).
Rose Bowl |
Iowa vs. BCS team |
Fiesta/Sugar/Orange Bowl |
Michigan State vs. BCS team |
Capital One |
Ohio State vs. SEC team |
Outback |
Wisconsin vs. SEC team |
Gator |
Illinois vs. SEC team |
Insight Bowl |
Michigan vs. Big 12 team |
Texas Bowl |
Northwestern vs. Big 12 team |
Dallas Football Classic |
Penn State vs. Big 12 team |
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl |
Purdue vs. MAC team |
I figure we're still good for the Gator Bowl as I think we'll defeat PSU, Illinois and Purdue to finish the regular season at 8-4.
October 17th, 2010 at 8:50 PM ^
You forgot about Ohio State.
[/confidence]
Otherwise, co-signed, because I was also thinking 8-4 and the Gator Bowl before the seaosn even started, an MSU and Iowa haven't changed that.
October 17th, 2010 at 8:52 PM ^
You forgot to mention the bowl victory. Would love to see more Hopkins en route to a solid finish.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:42 PM ^
You forgot about Wisconsin. But you got the Rose Bowl right.
October 17th, 2010 at 8:54 PM ^
What is the diff in the Gator and the Insight? Just conference standings?
October 17th, 2010 at 11:59 PM ^
They get the 4th/5th selection. If both select the same team, it is settled by a coin flip.
October 17th, 2010 at 8:57 PM ^
Gator Bowl sounds about right to me, too. I figure we should be 8-4, maybe even 9-3, since Wisconsin seems to be jinxed in Michigan.
October 18th, 2010 at 10:28 AM ^
Which would be nice since we hit up Florida pretty hard for recruits these days.
October 17th, 2010 at 8:59 PM ^
has been pushing Iowa hard since last spring. That being said, I do think they have a legit shot at the Rose Bowl with MSU, Wisco, and OSU at home.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:51 PM ^
Any tie that can't be resolved by head-to-head, and they're out due to losing to Arizona. If they wind up tied at 7-1 with MSU and OSU, it's going to be either MSU or OSU, with BCS standings as the deciding factor. If it's MSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin, MSU goes to the Rose Bowl (head-to-head over Wisconsin after Iowa is eliminated). If they drop one, they have to hope the team that beat them ends up with two losses, or they're out.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:00 PM ^
October 17th, 2010 at 9:04 PM ^
will be in the best bowl possible. If we can get to 8-4, We will be Gator bound. If they can, the Gator would pick us.
October 18th, 2010 at 1:14 AM ^
As explained above, if the Gator and Insight both pick Michigan, the insight would have a 50% chance with a coin flip.
October 18th, 2010 at 1:16 AM ^
Depends on the coin.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:07 PM ^
I'm still thinking 7 wins is where we're headed (although i'd love 8 wins). I believe bowls are allowed to pick teams lower in the standings as long as the difference isn't more than 1 game.
On a separate note though, if those were the bowl matchups, we're looking at a Big Ten romp in the bowl season as due to Sparty's jump and OSU's slip up, we'll actually be slotted with appropriate teams against the competition.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:11 PM ^
Seeing as I will be living in Jacksonville come Jan. 1, I would love to see Michigan in the Gator Bowl. I would gladly sacrifice that opportunity to be in a better bowl though.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:22 PM ^
it means playing Florida. Damn southern teams and their home field bowl games.
October 17th, 2010 at 10:02 PM ^
The way Addazio's been running the offense... We could have a shot.
October 17th, 2010 at 11:38 PM ^
UF's weaknesses play to Michigan's strengths. It would be a nice and possibly advantageous matchup.
October 17th, 2010 at 10:32 PM ^
You do realize what happened the last time we played Florida in one of their "home" bowl games, right? This...
October 17th, 2010 at 10:59 PM ^
I love that picture
October 17th, 2010 at 11:35 PM ^
It is tremendous.
October 18th, 2010 at 10:44 AM ^
No question, Jim.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:23 PM ^
really impressed me Saturday. Would love to see him involved in offense a lot more! And here comes the bowling ball!
Hail
October 17th, 2010 at 9:34 PM ^
I 100% agree. I think Shaw (when healthy) is our best back but Hopkins might be the best compliment to Denard. When he hits the hole the entire line moves back as he seems to be one of those players who can go from dead stop to full speed in about two steps. I think he should start getting more reps in front of Smith.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:27 PM ^
Can't wait to see MSU get killed by a Boise St. or Auburn.
October 18th, 2010 at 12:25 AM ^
Yeah it's not going to do much to quell the "Big Ten is a weak conference" meme that is highly annoying but I'll live with it if Sparty gets humiliated.
Who knows maybe the entire MSU team will get arrested before the bowl game and the announcers will still talk about how good of a disciplinarian Dantonio is... another meme that I wish would die already.
October 18th, 2010 at 9:05 AM ^
Just like UM killed 'em, LOL. Needless to say, I like MSU's chances more and more as the season goes on.
Where's that 'haters gonna hate' graphic? I never thought it'd be so useful. Enjoy your 'who cares' bowl.
October 18th, 2010 at 9:48 AM ^
MSU beats the first ranked team since 06 other than michigan and now they are big boys lol
October 18th, 2010 at 9:48 AM ^
edit: double posted for some reason
October 18th, 2010 at 10:25 AM ^
I think everyone (except apparently you) understands that BSU and AU are better teams than Michigan is at this point. Oh, I am sorry, I guess I should not expect you to understand that complicated point. Thanks for your great contribution.
October 18th, 2010 at 12:13 PM ^
Yes, Boise and Auburn ARE better teams than Michigan- on that we both agree.
Oh, you meant MSU? Well then. Yes, those two teams will probably beat us. Basically, Auburn is Michigan with a semblance of defense, and Boise State is, well, Boise State. Still, I'd fancy MSU's chances, at least- the UM game gives them a lot of preparation for Auburn, and Boise State's only good victory was over #10 at the time Va Tech- and that was 33-30. MSU doesn't beat itself and takes advantage of opponent's mistakes, two things that will serve it well going forward. That, and it has victories over the #11 and #18 teams (at the time)- at least we're in the conversation, and we can control our destiny.
For future reference, I'd have a better time understanding your 'complicated point' if you: a) refrained from the cheap Freudian slips, and b) offered even a smattering of support/evidence for your 'point'. You know, like so many of the posters do when marshalling reams of statistical evidence to prove that UM is a good 5-2 football team. I'd bet $20 you couldn't even name Auburn's coach without looking it up.
October 18th, 2010 at 1:15 PM ^
Are you sure about that? I'm assuming you are referring to national title hopes. Aside from the fact I think it is highly unlikely MSU goes undefeated, even if you do and 2 others do as well (Oklahoma, Oregon, Auburn, Boise, heck, even a 1-loss Bama) you will not be going to title game based on your strength of schedule and general lack of respect for MSU nationally. That is not what I would call controlling your own destiny.
October 18th, 2010 at 11:13 PM ^
Our remaining schedule is Iowa (which will be a tough game) and four of the conference's bottom five. If I'm feeling especially pessimistic, our chances of going unbeaten are 1 in 4; realistically I think more like 35-40% (a little less than 50-50 at Iowa, 85-90% that we win the other four).
I do think we're likely to end up on the outside looking in if it ends up three BCS unbeatens (preseason polls having a lot to do with that, although depending on who it is it might be the right call even if it happens for the wrong reasons). But there's a good chance we'd overtake Boise or TCU should it come to that, and I don't think there's any way a one-loss Bama gets the nod over an unbeaten MSU (the SEC really isn't that much stronger than the Big Ten, strong enough that an unbeaten would get the nod but not a one-loss team).
October 18th, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^
I am all for giving Sparty their due. You guys have a good squad this year, but don't come in hear with your high and mighty with your "enjoy your who cares bowl" smack when the last 20 years Sparty was defined "enjoy your who cares bowl" Nice team, nice season, but how about they reel off a 3 year run anyway of 9+ win seasons, and nice bowl games before declaring national dominace? Was it 1990 that MSU rose up and had one of these kinds of seasons, not to be heard from much since? Like, I said nice team, nice year, but forgive me for wanting to see how the next couple of years play out for you guys ok?
October 18th, 2010 at 12:16 PM ^
Will do. I understand the skepticism, but I think we're entering a new phase- better recruiting, better coaching, better overall play. I mean, even Narduzzi's starting to put together solid gameplans, he of the '4-3 stack=blitz, every freaking time' school of predictability.
October 18th, 2010 at 1:26 PM ^
No problem with your optimism at all, just want to see it repeated a few years. It seemed like they were starting to build something, and then had a dud last year. Next year will be a good test to your theories with the recruiting, and depth of the program, as far as players and coaches. They have a brutal schedule if I remember correctly, and losing a lot of quality seniors, and may even lose some coaches if Treadwell gets his own program somewhere.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:37 PM ^
I would love to see Michigan play Florida again in a bowl this year. Florida is not oging to move the ball with Brantley, and Michigan should improve some by the end of the season.
October 17th, 2010 at 11:31 PM ^
I would be perfectly happy to see the SEC in a minimal number of bowl games.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:55 PM ^
What are the chances we end up in a Bowl with a Florida team that is having an off year? I wouldn't mind seeing that at all :]
October 17th, 2010 at 10:12 PM ^
That's hardly a sure thing, let alone winning eight.
October 17th, 2010 at 10:42 PM ^
How MSU gets a better bowl than OSU is beyond me.
October 17th, 2010 at 10:48 PM ^
MSU not only has a better record, but has played better than OSU so far.
MSU beat Wisconsin by double digits, and then Wisconsin handled OSU. And not just that, but MSU actually somewhat neutralized Wisconsin's powerful running game, while OSU got shredded by that same running game (especially in the first half).
That being said, I expect MSU to lose at Iowa, and maybe at NU or PSU.
October 18th, 2010 at 4:10 PM ^
MSU did play Wisconsin at home and OSU travelled to Madison (one of the toughest places to play) at night.
I do think that MSU's rushing attack is better than Wisconsin and they could beat OSU depending on where it is.
Sparty will be Sparty though and lose a few games that they shouldnt
October 17th, 2010 at 10:50 PM ^
...he's got Iowa beating OSU for their second loss and Iowa beating MSU for the Spartans' only loss.
October 18th, 2010 at 6:40 AM ^
I think Iowa loses to both. I was not overly impressed with them.
October 18th, 2010 at 9:14 AM ^
After the MSU-Illinois game, their coach said that MSU was the best team they had played so far. Keep in mind, they played OSU already, and kept it extremely close. Right now, Team America: World Stanziball and MSU are at the top of the Big Ten standings, alone. They meet in two weeks. We'll have an answer to this puzzle one way or another. And yes, OSU lost on the road at Wisconsin, but it was worse than it seemed- Wiscy took a big lead early and stiff-armed its way to victory. OSU's listless play showed up at the worst possible time, and they're really out of the conversation until/unless both Iowa and MSU lose.
But really, projections are just guesses. There's still a lot of football to be played.
October 17th, 2010 at 11:08 PM ^
But here's my current dream bowl season:
Boise St. v TCU for the National Championship
Undefeated Michigan State against anyone else in the Rose Bowl (and the Spartans WIN!--THEY'RE NUMBER TWO! THEY'RE NUMBER TWO!)
Michigan v Florida anywhere on New Year's Day (because Michigan owns Florida).
October 18th, 2010 at 12:13 AM ^
October 18th, 2010 at 12:27 AM ^
Dunno, I'd love to see a TCU vs. Boise St. NC game just to watch the BCS implode spectacularly.
October 18th, 2010 at 1:55 AM ^
Of course BSU beat Oregon last year, and BSU returned practically everybody for this year. People may not like it, but I think BSU is as good as anybody this year.