A Modest Attempt at Perspective
Here goes. First, the bad:
• The generally disappointing performance of the program over the past 10-15 years and persistent futility against our two main rivals should trigger some legitimate introspection.
• The way in which we lost the Outback Bowl, coupled with the disappointing 2017 season, dismal offense, and persistent weaknesses that date back to last season or earlier (e.g., poor offensive line play) raise legitimate questions about whether the issues plaguing this team are systemic.
• Jim Harbaugh’s failure to develop an elite QB so far legitimately tarnishes his reputation as a QB guru.
• Pep Hamilton, Tim Drevno, and perhaps other offensive assistants may need to be replaced.
• The above, coupled with the fact that Michigan has failed to finish better than 3rd in the B1G East three years into the Harbaugh era, raises legitimate questions about whether the Jesus-like hype surrounding Harbaugh and his antics is excessive and unwarranted.
Having said all of that, we ultimately need to keep the good in mind:
• This program was a complete and total train wreck when Harbaugh got here, and he doubled the team’s win total in his first season.
• For all of the issues on offense, the defense actually overachieved with another top 5 finish despite losing 10 of 11 starters from 2016.
• The defense returns 9 of 11 starters in 2018 and is poised for another dominant year.
• Many blue-chip recruits, like Rashan Gary, Khaleke Hudson, and Devin Bush Jr., have lived up to their hype and then some.
• What isn’t the product of hype is Harbaugh’s track record, having turned around two miserably underperforming teams, coached two Heisman Trophy runners-up, and molded a group of unknown recruits into the country’s best offensive line in 2010 at Stanford.
So that’s where we’re at. This will be a long, painful, and critical offseason. We have no choice but to take our lumps from Sparties and Buckeyes who will spare no opportunity to point out Harbaugh’s 1-5 record against them, our painfully long B1G championship drought, and the fact that Michigan was the lone blemish on an otherwise perfect B1G bowl record. HOWEVER, the light at the end of the tunnel is still in sight. It may be further off than we wanted, and the tunnel has had some unexpected twists and turns, but the light is still visible. All we can do is be patient and keep the faith. There are still plenty of legitimate reasons to do that. And it beats sky-is-falling hysterics or head-in-the-sand rehashing of old statistics that bear no relevance to the program today. Now neg away.
January 4th, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^
Go Cats
January 4th, 2018 at 9:59 AM ^
It is all about the offensive line, including the RB blocking..... more time and protection and Speight doesnt get hurt, and we have a senior and seasoned QB..... then all this heartache is gone. Dont forget that Speight beat MSU in EL. and had OSU on ropes until he fumbled on goalline. Harbaugh seems to have bet on youth with Peters, and let Speight go, as they said they wanna go into next year with a firm qb and was essentially telling Speight goodbye. Now that is the bed he sleeps in.. the OL still is bad. NO Tackles... Kept recruiting small RBS and OL that end up inside....only until Frey came aboard did we get some future T.
Wanna know where the epic fail was? Not having any depth behind Newsome. No RT either, and that was no excuse... so they couldnt afford a loss at LT, doubly.... and then to make matters worse, they put Cole at LT.... he should be a C or better yet, guard, and yet we kept recruiting guards. Everyone else saw this except Harbaugh and Drevno. Sure, we missed out on Isiah Wilson, but where was plan B? Where were the other T ? We still need several more. Instead we have a team of guards. Now Ownenu is on bench. Ridiculous. And Drevno passes on Swenson, fine, but then goes after Ulizio? He didn't do his homework, and this isn't the west coast.
January 4th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
Clearly OL is a major issue. But you say that accurately, then go focus the misses on guys who would be freshmen this year. That wouldn't have fixed us this year. It was Hoke's OL misses that are hurting us right now, not Harbaugh.
We do have more of a pipeline of first and second year players. Tackles, particularly elite tackles still clearly need to be a recruing focus
January 4th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^
Swenson would not have been a freshman this year...he is in same class as Ulizio.
Wilson would have been a frosh, yes, but didn't he have a plug and play elite size ? They seemed to have gone all in on Hamilton, and whiffed.... and then again all in on Wilson...and whiffed... no plan B at T.. instead they stock up the guards...save for Filiaga but Im hearing hes an inside G. that is no excuse.
Yes, the T fail primarily rests on Hoke... Fox and LTT both fizzled. Among other duds Im not thinking of at the moment. But one cannot deny that the first two years Harbaugh did not address the tackle spot.
January 4th, 2018 at 10:36 AM ^
Should have kept Swenson in my opinion. That move hasn't aged well.
January 4th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
Again though, he was a RS freshman who played in five games this year. Maybe down the line that's right, but that isn't a what went wrong this year discussion regarding starters
January 4th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^
Nope. You're right. But I didn't say that he was the answer to all of our problems. I just said we should have kept him instead of what happened. He is a decent lineman. Instead of keeping a highly rated good lineman, it turned into a negative story and our OL has looked like shit. So they were wrong on that one and I hope they acknowledge it at some point. He is going to be a starter on that team, a team coming off a playoff appearance.
Go back and look at the way people on here were talking about him at the time. There was a lot of negativity toward anyone questioning the move as I recall.
January 4th, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^
OK, fair enough on Swensen, but he is a RS freshman who played in 5 games this year. RS freshmen still seldom play serious minutes. He still to my point would not have fixed us. Not sure why he was so averse to camps.
As for he didn't fix it in his first two classes, you realize recruiting elite players is now typically a multi-year deal, no? 2015 doesn't even count he came in so late. And 2016 was a challenge as at that point for elite players you're essentially trying to flip them. A couple misses on the players who were interested in coming here is a big issue when your options are limited to begin with.
I think we do have some promising true freshmen tackles who red shirted this year. It's just not something you recruit in one year and you're set.
Also, with Newsome this would be an entirely different discussion. Would our OL have been elite this year? No, but we'd have been a lot more competent. I agree again though that tackle needs to continue to be a huge focus for us.
Damn we could use Nick, fingers crossed.
January 4th, 2018 at 10:36 AM ^
MSU in 2012 went 7-6 despite a very good defense due to poor QB play. In 2013 they returned 15-16 starters, found a QB out of nowhere and went on to have the best non-OSU BIG 10 season since the '97 UofM Championship team.
While 13-1 maybe a longshot given the assumed strength of the conference in 2018, this is an example of turnaround that can happen when you have an elite D.
January 4th, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
January 4th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
Harbaugh's oldest chosen quarterback is a RS freshman who hasn't even been a Heisman finalist yet! You think that's not a serious problem!?!
No wait, it isn't a problem. Never mind ...
January 4th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
The way I see Harbaugh's tenure so far:
From an unweighted scale (not taking into account the context/expectations surrounding the season):
- 2015: B+ (10 wins, but losses to both rivals at home, finishing 3rd in the East)
- 2016: B+ (10 wins, but losses to Ohio State, mediocre Iowa and bowl game, finishing 3rd in the East)
- 2017: C (8-5 is the definition of an average/mediocre season for Power 5 football).
From a weighted scale (more important to look at it through this lens, in my opinion):
- 2015: A (Went from 5 wins to 10 wins, three shutouts in a row, dominated SEC East Champion in the bowl game, turned around trajectory; only thing preventing an A+ is the margin of loss to OSU at home)
- 2016: B- (Had the most NFL talent in the country, 8 home games, 2/4 road games against non-bowl teams and still managed to choke up 3 losses. Big waste. This should've been "the year").
- 2017: B (Had to replace the majority of starters, most of whom were elite talent; multiple quarterbacks suffer injuries)
This resume isn't as bad as people think it is in the national media given what he walked into. He isn't and shouldn't be feeling any hot seat heat.
That said, 2018 should be pivotal. Also, while it's a fine resume, it's certainly not a "highest paid coach/staff in the land" resume, which can generate some consternation.
Additionally, I think the reason the Harbaugh's era leaves a sour taste is the distinction between bad losses and unexpected wins.
I'd most simply define a "bad loss" as a game that Michigan was a significant favorite to win (i.e. not a tossup/slight favorite; favored/unfavored being more than just the betting line, but talent, context, home field, etc.). Harbaugh has 3 of those losses now:
- Iowa 2016
- MSU 2017
- South Carolina 2017
I'd liberally define an "unexpected win" as one where Michigan either enters as a significant underdog, or the game is somewhat close to a tossup. In his 3 years, Harbaugh only has one of those and it was of the latter, tossup variety:
- Florida 2015
A lot of people will clamor about what "needs" to happen in 2018, but I'd say #1 on the list is winning at least one single game where Michigan is an underdog/not expected to win.
January 4th, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^
We need to not give in to the "Fire Harbaugh" crowd even if things do not go well next year. The program badly needs some continuity in its coaching, especially when it is recruiting fairly well and has a lot of young talent in the pipeline.
January 4th, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^
I agree with you too and didn't mean to imply otherwise.
I will say though, that if 2018 does not go well, 2019 will be the year when Jim should feel some heat if that year also does not go well (say, after 2019, we are 1-10 against rivals...*shudder*). I don't think that will happen, but if it does, it would be time for U of M to seriously evaluate the situation.
5 years is his absolute minimum, and probably would more likely be 6 unless things turned absolutely wretched (which nobody rational should think they will), but if it's not where it needs to be after 2020-ish, we can pay younger coaches way less money for non-championship results.
January 4th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^
The number of games the last 3 years that Michigan has found so many ways to Clutch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory
January 4th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
... you could look at it as how close we are.
We were in all the games this year other than Penn State. And even that one we hung in there for almost a half.
Freshmen and sophomores are just not physically able for the most part to compete with 4th and 5th year players who have several more years working out and in weight rooms. They just aren't. Note how that would directly lead to fading late.
Then usually when freshmen and sophomores do start they usually aren't lined up next to more freshmen and sophomores.
Criticizing is easy. And it's meaningless without actually assessing the situation
January 4th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
January 4th, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^
January 4th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
Now I'm a big fan of Jim Harbaugh as a coach in general, so I've been hesitant to point this out..but the narrative of Stanford as some downtrodden minor program that Harbaugh turned around is a bit overstated.
It wasn't exactly a cast of skinny nerds moulded into stars by Harbaugh (which is sometimes how it's portrayed because Stanford only accepts guys who are least OK academically rather than accepting pretty bad students who can play football like almost everyone else. In reality, there's plenty of good football players who are OK or better academically.)
He had some good talent at Stanford. Andrew Luck was an extremely highly touted recruit and would have been considered a get even for a Michigan. Stepfan Taylor was a 4 star as well. Even guys like Sherman, Gerhart, Gaffney, Owusu, DeCastro were legit prospects with P5 offer sheets. It wasn't a SEC roster but there's been other teams with similar or probably even worse talent level that have had very good seasons in P5 conferences (like Wazzu, Northwestern or Iowa).
Harbaugh did a proper job getting Stanford built up into a strong Pac-12 program, but the 'miracle worker' part of it is blown out of proportion sometimes.
January 4th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^
I've been told to be patient and keep the faith for too long. The thing is, I have been patient.
There is no reason you piss away a 19-3 lead against an 8-4 SC team. The play calling was atrocious - these are not NFLers, they're college kids. Make it simple.
None of the QBs took steps forward this season. The OL should be better at this point. The WRs, while young, are very talented and should be able to get open more, especially with what our tight ends open up for them.