No offer for AJ Carter? - Possible steal at RB
Hey everyone, I just came across a three-star running back from Louisiana named AJ Carter. He's currently only one spot ahead of Christian Turner and 27 spots ahead of Hassan Haskins on 247's rankings. Carter was incredibly productive in his last two seasons, in which he averaged 9.4 yards per carry and 0.15 touchdowns per touch. He's also a well-built running back, standing at 6' 0" and weighing around 220 pounds and runs a 4.5.
For the sake of comparison, Haskins, during his final two seasons, averaged 7.5 yards per carry and 0.10 touchdowns per touch. Carter's production seems to closely resemble that of a high four-star RB. I'm just wondering, since we're offering scholarships to lower rated players, why not at least go for the ones who were super productive in high school. This is not to say Turner and Haskins are bad players, but I think there are other players with the same rating who could be potential steals for Michigan. It's surprising to me that we haven't at least offered him a scholarship. I have more statistics and analytical data to back up that this kid is legit. What do you guys think? Here's are his highlights from 2016:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVYqssdfrUg
Before negging away, we are in a slow period right now and this is a forum. I think this is a valid discussion point. Share your opinions, that's what it's all about.
December 19th, 2017 at 11:07 AM ^
December 19th, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
You guys are connecting dots that aren't there. Reread everything. He was simply asking why in the world we didn't even offer the kid. He doesn't go off rankings, he was simply making a point that there was a better player that was ranked lower on certain services. Again, he wasn't intending to be arrogant or narcissitic. He truly wants to help Michigan and was wondering what Michigan fans would think of this prospect. As far as the quarterback data. He has that data going back to 2007 actually. Again, I've told him to share it, but he's stubbornly refusing. You guys made it worse with your shunning and reaction to the post. Had there been genuine interest, perhaps he would have shared at least a screenshot or something.
December 19th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
December 19th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^
If I had been met with actual interest from the earliest responses, I probably would've gladly engaged more and explained further why I like Carter over a lot of higher-ranked players. However, when practically all of the responses in the first few hours were either incredibly sarcastic or rude, I don't get why anyone would expect me to be responsive. I've dealt with these kinds of people when I talk about prospects going to the NFL. They believe that the current player evaluation system is absolutely perfect and, no matter how much data you show them, will not believe that using numbers to evaluate prospects will ever be useful. And if this site is full data-loving nerds, the first few comments probably would've been a little less sarcastic and a little more questioning. Also, everyone in this thread is really acting as if I'm the most arrogant person because I believe a player is better than some of the more hyped up players in the nation. I've never claimed that this is a perfect, fail-proof method. However, I do believe it could help a program increase their hit rate on prospects (which is typically pretty low).
December 19th, 2017 at 2:23 PM ^
December 19th, 2017 at 8:57 AM ^
Like how the player is committed to UCLA. Was committed to LSU. He made it sound like no one was on this kid and if Michigan noticed him they could just swoop in and pick him up.
He also didn't seem to pay any attention to what this class needs, nor the kid's screwy recruiting history.
He just said the kid had good stats, without explaining them. He might understand how to evaluate stats, but he seems to understand very little about how to explain them and very little about recruiting.
You didn't do him any favors by letting him use your account. There is a reason the site doesn't let brand new posters create threads. He took what might have been an interesting topic and made a mess out of it. Blaming the posters who responded to it is very weak.
December 19th, 2017 at 9:23 AM ^
to look up that information if they were really interested. Type his name into 247 and you'll see the offer list. He could have stated it better, but it's a lost cause when all are demanding "proof" and he refuses to share it. Plus, it doesn't matter how many RBs are committed, if you have a chance at a game breaking back, you get him, wouldn't you?
December 19th, 2017 at 9:48 AM ^
look up the relevant information he left out and expect them not to criticize him for it? Did he know or he was just being lazy about anything but stats and wouldn't acknowledge it? Further he was cherrypicking the recruiting #s he did use. He used 247's own rankings and ignored the much more commonly used composite.
He got off to a rough start and was defensive instead of sharing more info. Instead he bragged about predicting Baker Mayfield's success and made a bunch of other predictions.
And yes, it does matter how many other RBs are committed. He didn't even claim that he was a gamebreaking RB, just that if we were taking low ranked recruits, that he was better than them. You also seem to be blind to the arrogance he displayed while seeing it in the posters that responded to him.
December 19th, 2017 at 9:55 AM ^
Really curious? Was it the fact that he's been comitted and decomitted.
He wasn't being lazy or anything, it was his first post on here and he didn't know people are very particular, damn near sharks about how they like posts formatted.
He didn't cherry pick, he just thinks 247 is more reliable. I'm not familiar with his composite, but does that really change the narrative that much?
He also didn't "brag" about Baker. Baker is just a great example of a severly underrecruited kid who's success could have been predicted had we used metrics as a program.
I may not see his arrogance, because I'm not obsessed with information and formatting. He wasn't trolling and his intentions were just to provide some information on a kid he thought was good. Don't get why everyone got so defensive about it. Could it have been better formatted and provided better background info? Of course. But again, it was his first post. I think y'all are taking this way more seriously then it should be. He didn't commit a crime. He just forgot to give some info properly. If he came off as arrogant, I apolgize on his behalf. Not his intention though.
December 19th, 2017 at 10:54 AM ^
without mentioning that he would need to be stolen away from UCLA and possibly LSU.
Arrogant in starting by knocking our recruiting, then claiming he knew better than the coaches and the recruiting services and only offering basic stats and a link to film that they all surely knew.
He said Carter was one spot ahead of Turner in RB ratings, when he was ten spots behind in the composite. Yes, that does change things as he was claiming they were similarly rated.
Saying he could have predicted Mayfield's success by using his system is bragging. Even if true, there is no other way of putting it.
He gave a few more examples where his statistical model outperformed the rankings without any acknowledgement that it doesn't always work better. More bragging and I would say arrogance. He seemed to expect that would convince people, but literally any system that tried to use stats would be expected to return some very positive results.. Most posters on here understand that.
You both did a poor job of understanding why people reacted negatively towards his posts. I'd say you give the posters here too little credit. You blame them for shallow, knee-jerk responses when there were many things wrong with your brother's OP and his subsequent posts that you both either overlook or downplay.
December 19th, 2017 at 1:03 PM ^
Many on this board do. Which is why, he attached the link to the video. Spreading information is arrogance and bragging. Only in the delusional Mgoworld. If you guys truly were just confused and wanted more info. Ask. If he says he can't divulge any further, then leave it alone. Again, it's really not a big deal.
December 19th, 2017 at 2:50 PM ^
"Arrogant in starting by knocking our recruiting, then claiming he knew better than the coaches and the recruiting services and only offering basic stats and a link to film that they all surely knew."
I never claimed I knew more than the coaches and the recruiting services. Although, it's pretty arrogant to think that these people are never wrong in their assesment of players. Look at the hit rate of prospects and tell me that the system is perfect right now. Now using numbers is far from perfect too, but it could potentially tell you more about a player than film alone would. The fact that a strong majority of evaluation is dedicated to using our subjective eyes is troublesome. To watch film of a prospect and think "my eyes tell me this guy is a very good player" displays much more hubris than objectively looking at different sets of data and saying "this guy compares favorably to recent successful players."
"Saying he could have predicted Mayfield's success by using his system is bragging. Even if true, there is no other way of putting it."
I never acted like I was some superior evaluator of talent. It's not even me, it's the numbers. The numbers indicated that Baker was more likely to succeed in college. Again, it's not flawless, but expecting guys who could only muster up a 51% completion percentage, 7 yards per attempt, a 1.8 TD/INT ratio and an 80 QB rating in high school to somehow become superstars at the college level seems ridiculous. If the level of competition only increases when you go to college, why would they all of a sudden become better players than they were in high school? And the excuse most often given for going after such flawed prospects is, "They have all the tools. Now if we let him work with our amazing coaching staff, he'll definitely improve." That's exactly what's happening with Josh Allen going to the NFL. He's been below average throughout his college career, yet he's a projected top 10 pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Why? Because every coaching staff thinks they can fix the unfixable. Talk about arrogance...
December 19th, 2017 at 12:31 AM ^
Is that you act like we're the crazy ones because we want proof. You're a guy on the internet who says "I found a kid who's great. I can't tell you how I know but trust me on this one. I'm smarter than the UM staff and a better evaluator of talen." You don't have to share your database but give us something. Does AJ come out as the #1 overall recruit? Does the model project kids who aren't even pursuing football near the top of your list? As someone mentioned, this would be mildly interesting if you provided any context.
Have you ever read (and enjoyed) an article that said, hey xyz is the best based on my very sophisticated metrics that I can't tell you about. I just can't believe you don't get this extremely basic concept and continue to argue it. And oh by the way, this was written by uncle, not me.
December 19th, 2017 at 12:36 AM ^
December 19th, 2017 at 1:48 AM ^
Let's say for a second that I gave you all the "proof" that you wanted. Would that all of a sudden get you interested in analytics and would that get him recruited by the Michigan staff? It honestly doesn't matter if you trust me or not. At the end of the day, I'll still think he's a good player (primarily because of the objective numbers rather than subjective tape) and you'll still probably not like him. If I thought in any way this would help the Michigan program or lead to me getting connected to the coaching staff, I'd gladly share of the data I have compiled. If it does neither one of the things, why would I do that?
December 19th, 2017 at 2:29 AM ^
I'll still think he's a good player (primarily because of the objective numbers rather than subjective tape) and you'll still probably not like him.
If we did not "like" him, how can we be convinced otherwise with so little information? It's like you are operating on this assumption that we have the same information as you.
December 19th, 2017 at 2:45 AM ^
December 19th, 2017 at 1:16 AM ^
I'll take your word for it and believe that your brother actually has some kind of predictive modeling. One thing that surprises me is that you are shocked that we didn't believe you before you somewhat explained yourself.
The thing that astounds me more is that you think the board believing you based on very little information provided will have any impact on what the coaches and/or analysts think.
I hope your brother gets some kind of feeedback from the staff, because if it is as predictive as you say it is, he might be onto something.
December 19th, 2017 at 1:28 AM ^
Majority were just asanine comments and replies. Some were just plain rude and demeaning. There were some that at least engaged in a conversation and I respect that. Thank you for a rational response.
December 19th, 2017 at 12:28 AM ^
I don't trust kids with only 2 minutes of highlights and fake forty times
December 19th, 2017 at 12:57 AM ^
Hey everyone, I was the one who wrote this post and, since I've dealt with many other fanbases, I'm not too surprised about the negative responses. I just think it's odd that my sister's account can go from over 100 MGoPoints to 38 in the course of a 8 hours just because people don't agree that a player is good. It's not like I was even being arrogant and saying "my method is perfect and all others are inferior." I was just saying that the numbers (not my biased opinion) indicate this guy could potentially be a better prospect than what most people think he is. And then, of course, after already negging the post and calling me an idiot, some people also demanded more proof - which I don't think I owe to people who were both rude and (no matter what information I provided) would have no way of even getting this guy recruited by Michigan. Again, it was just supposed to be a simple post mentioning a player who could exceed expectations as a college football player. I honestly always thought Michigan had one of the more reasonable fanbases in the nation. Boy, was I wrong about that.
December 19th, 2017 at 2:02 AM ^
If you don't think you could have written the OP in a different way or have been more descriptive before you had everyone questioning you, I don't know what to tell you.
Some questions since I am curious.
- Does you model take into account competition or strength of schedule? Based on your respones above it seems like you don't account for it or it isn't significant in your results.
- How accurate are high school stats? I can see stats for teams like IMG or other powerhouses being reliable, but not sure about others.
- What kind of feedback have you received from coaches/analysts?
- You mentioned QBs and RBs, can your model be used for WR/TE?
- Can you post a top 5 RB for 2018 class based on your analytics?
December 19th, 2017 at 2:25 AM ^
1. Quite frankly no, then I would have to discount players like Dak Prescott and David Johnson, because although they were great in HS, they played in small towns that the competition level would be deemed low. However, I do try to keep track of where the program was before, during and after the player's career at the school. This tells me if the player truly made an impact on the program.
2. I've only come across a few schools that I question the legitimacy of the stats. Even that though, didn't cause me to throw away the whole process for that player. If anything, it just made me temper expectations for said players.
3. None, as of yet. I have e-mailed the staff, but we'll see if they reply. I am still building the database for different positions and only after then, will I pursue internships, etc.
4. Yes. I'm currenlty growing that section of the database.
5. I'm still working on a few more profiles for the RBs. But, I'd be more than happy to share that list of 5 when I'm finished.
December 19th, 2017 at 9:29 AM ^
December 19th, 2017 at 9:34 AM ^
There aren't. Don't like the thread, move on.
December 19th, 2017 at 10:02 AM ^
millennial comes in with an overvalued idea. Mr Wonderful then asks for real financials to which he gets none and then "But I worked so hard..." and eventually starts crying because there was no participation trophy.
OP, you have been asked several good questions and quite frankly have replied with arrogant and incomplete answers and crying.
As Mark Cuban would say," Best of luck to you, I'm out".
December 19th, 2017 at 10:05 AM ^
He'll provide simplified stats to back up his answers, but isn't willing to provide a screenshot or any more details than that. If that's what you mean by arrogant and incomplete, then I'm sorry. He's not budging on that. He'll answer any questions though willingly, as long it doesn't have to do with sharing the database info.
December 19th, 2017 at 10:51 AM ^
Then maybe he shouldn't have made the post.
December 19th, 2017 at 11:11 AM ^
December 19th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
this is exactly why we should have a 100 point minimum to start threads..
December 19th, 2017 at 1:00 PM ^
The thread itself has nothing wrong with it. A bunch of grouchy old men apparently get upset if there is anything opposed to board groupthink. God forbid there be discussion on a forum.
December 20th, 2017 at 2:24 AM ^
December 19th, 2017 at 1:24 PM ^
Their high school production against each other as there are too many variables that don't match, such as the teams they play/quality of opponent. How good their offensive line is. Your comparison is like apples to oranges.
December 19th, 2017 at 1:30 PM ^
the country? Just because Michigan may not be doing it, doesn't mean others aren't.
December 19th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^
Did the board just get "Catfished?" The OP, who's actually the OP's brother using his sister's account, tries to get us all to talk about why the staff should offer AJ Carter. Then, when the OP's sister's account starts getting negged heavily, he creates his own account to come to her defense. You can't make this stuff up.
I don't know if AJ Carter is going to be any good in college, but one thing's for sure, after this, I'm going to check on his career from time to time.
December 19th, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^
He had his own account. Just didn't post frequently. Couldn't start a thread obviously. Don't see him doing so anymore either. He's over the board.
December 19th, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^
Maybe you should be too.
December 19th, 2017 at 1:40 PM ^
When I hear about players like this, that put up amazing numbers in high school but don't seem to get the attention that other players do, I wonder if scouts are seeing them as a finished product with little or no room for future improvement. You can be a great high school player and that doesn't translate to the next level, just how someone can be a great college player, but not really be an NFL/NBA/etc. prospect.
December 19th, 2017 at 3:41 PM ^
And this happens all the time at running back. Actually, probably at RB more than any other position for high school football players. There are some BALLERS in high school that kick ass playing RB and then end up going to a DIII school.
Where I grew up, Canton, OH, you see this all the time. High school football capital of the world you see badass RB's with insane stats all the time and they often end up at Mount Union. They are relatviely fast, but not elite fast, and they are tough as nails. It allows you to rack up some insane stats and production in high school.
That's not a knock on these guys...I was in that general mold.
PS: I'm not necessarily referring to the guy the OP is referring to but just in general why you can't just offer on production especially at RB.
December 20th, 2017 at 11:51 AM ^
OP you're an idiot who is just trolling the board at this point
24/7 Profile UNRANKED #1 in the state of Michigan
December 20th, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^
Bad news, everyone - AJ Carter decommitted from UCLA (again) and signed with Arizona State