Bill Connelly: Michigan’s season has gone pretty much as expected

Submitted by Blue and Joe on

Bill Connelly has a nice read about how Michigan's season has basically gone how it was expected to go. S&P+ projected Michigan to win, on average, about 8.9 games in 2017. That would drop to around 8.5 if Speight being out for the season was considered.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/11/21/16683112/michigan-…

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taistreetsmyhero

November 21st, 2017 at 1:11 PM ^

The only reason the sky feels like it is falling to many on this site is the MSU loss.

Ask half the site, and we would have beat MSU with a healthy Speight. Those are the same people who think this season was fine given the bad injury luck.

Ask the other half, and they would say that Speight sucked when he was healthy, and we probably still would have lost to MSU. Those are the same people claiming that the sky is falling.

Joined: 08/08/2012

MGoPoints: 39396

username03

November 21st, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^

I don't think the sky is falling but the way they handled the offense, specifically the QB situation, was pretty subpar to me and more importantly I have no idea what the point was. Speight getting hurt doesn't really change that at all, it might have helped in fact as eventually it forced them to play the best QB on the roster. The fact that it took them till the 8th game to do this is problematic. The fact that JOK was ever ahead of BP on the depth chart is mystifying.

Joined: 02/12/2016

MGoPoints: 14535

BlueMan80

November 21st, 2017 at 1:09 PM ^

which was Bo's darkest days.  The Wolverines went 9-3 in 1982 (lost to UCLA twice), 8-4 in 1983 (horrible loss in the Sugar Bowl), and then 6-6 in 1984 when Harbaugh broke his arm vs. MSU.  You can imagine what an MGoBlog of 1984 would be like.  We lost 26-0 to Iowa, 31-29 to Purdue, and 21-6 to OSU.

I remember questioning the talent level of that team.  Russ Rein came in as the backup QB and he was well regarded as a recruit.  He started the Iowa game.  Chris Zurbrugg was up next and he was a better passer, but still, without a frantic comeback to make the score look better, he was not the savior vs. Purdue.  The QBs threw 10 TD pass and 15 INTs combined.  Harbaugh had 5 of the INTs.  The passing attack was so disrespected that the Wolverines ran into a stacked box once Harbaugh went down.  For the first time in a long time, Michigan averaged less than 200 yards rushing per game.

The leading receiver was Sim Nelson.  I don't even remember that guy.  Vince Bean had almost the same stats.  He isn't a real memorable name either.  Paul Jokisch was in his first year playing football (was a BB player), John Kolesar was a senior in high school, and Yale Van Dyne was on the bench.  Eric Kattus caught 4 passes all year as an underclassman.  The leading rusher was Rick Rogers.  I'm sure most people have no clue who he was.  A guy by the name of Jamie Morris was an underclassman and got more run as the season progressed.  He mainly returned kicks that year.  Gerald White got some carries, but he was an underclassman, too.

The defense would hang in there as long as they could, but eventually they got tired and the flood gates opened.  They were talented.  Mesner, Hammerstein, the Mallory brothers, Garland Rivers, Ivan Hicks, and Eric Campbell who I think switched from receiver to DB that year.  They just needed some help from the offense.

Then the calendar turned to 1985 and the Wolverines finished the season 10-1-1 and ranked #2 in both polls.  Bo's highest rated team ever.

Joined: 01/21/2011

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BlueMan80

November 21st, 2017 at 1:52 PM ^

Harbaugh had 3 TD passes and 5 INTs for the season.  They were losing the MSU game when he got knocked out.  The team was 3-2 after the MSU game.  Harbaugh was the future, but he wasn't burning it up like he did in 1985 and 1986.  Bo kept him on a short leash in 1984.  I think Peters has shown some good skill while on a short leash in 2017.

Joined: 01/21/2011

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True Blue Grit

November 21st, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^

started and thought that would be achievable even with so much youth.  The biggest surprise and disappointment to me this season has been how poor the passing game has been.  I really expected it to be better than this.  Even when Speight was playing, it didn't look that good.  This has got to be Harbaugh's worst passing team ever as a head coach.  For Michigan to be better than 8-4 next season, he HAS to get it fixed.  

Joined: 01/21/2011

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NateVolk

November 21st, 2017 at 1:50 PM ^

That's what happens when you are without your starting quarterback for most of the season. Every team we played this year would look bad passing for large stretches without the quarterback, pup receivers and an inexperienced O line. 

No coach in the country goes better than 9-3 with this team as the roster currently sits. Not one. And if Speight is healthy, they win against MSU.

Joined: 07/19/2010

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los barcos

November 21st, 2017 at 2:15 PM ^

Speight at the start of the year was not the same as Speight the first 3/4 of last year.  There was something still...off...about him.  When he left the Purdue game he was 2/4 for 10 yards. JOK came in and did so much better that the scuttlebutt after that game was that JOK was an actual viable quarterback.  There was talk during the offseason that JOK closed the gap against Speight, too.

People talk about losing our starting QB like he was a Heisman contender.  Not all starting QBs are created equal and yes, we lost ours for the season, but he wasn't playing at a very good level to begin with.  

Everyone wants to say "but look we met our minimum expectations."  They plug their ears and close their eyes and become equally as annoying as those on the other side of the spectrum saying Harbaugh should be fired.  

The reality, IMO, is somewhere in between those extremes.  Yes, there are legit reasons why we've played poorly, some of which ARE attributed to Harbaugh's decisions.  That doesn't mean he's a terrible coach or should be fired, but it does mean he has some things that need to be changed this offeason.  

Joined: 03/27/2009

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HailHail47

November 21st, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^

Our losses have been decisive and ugly. When people predicted that we'd be 8-4 I think they assumed we'd be competitive in every game and lose on a couple mistakes made by young players. We got a beating from Penn State. We got a beating from UW.

Joined: 10/07/2017

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Bigly yuge

November 21st, 2017 at 3:30 PM ^

For some reason we have a faction of fans who think we should be going 12-0 every year and when we don’t they seek to have everyone fired. I’ve even seen posters call for Don Brownbyo be fired after the PSU game lol. Unreal.

Joined: 09/23/2017

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bo_lives

November 21st, 2017 at 3:37 PM ^

The Michigan fan in me is predicting 12-0 like always, but right now the objective fan in me sees 8-4 in 2018. The schedule is fucking brutal (thanks Dave and Warde!) and I think the defense will take a step back (there is no way we can expect them to be this elite every single year). 2018 has the chance to be like 2016.

Before 2017 I was predicting 10-2, with losses @Wisconsin and @OSU (I bought into the story that MSU and PSU sucked, and Florida never looked like a scary team whatsoever). Michigan beat a bunch of shitty teams and has gone 0-3 against teams with a pulse in 2017. The OSU game will say a lot.

Joined: 04/10/2011

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Avon Barksdale

November 21st, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^

There’s no way that our defense (who returns everyone except Mo Hurst/Mike McCray) is going to be great again? You can say what you want about the offense, but the defense will actually be better next year. We are literally playing with 8 first time starters this year, and they all return. Alabama’s defense also has something to say about the “can’t be great every year...”

Joined: 04/27/2013

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taistreetsmyhero

November 21st, 2017 at 4:27 PM ^

Will need to take a huge leap in consistency and productivity or else the defense will probably take a step back. Mo Hurst is the most valuable player we’ve had in a long time, and Solomon has huge shoes to fill. The safeties have an opportunity to make some strides, and maybe we’ll get burned on fewer fades next year. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they only make a tiny improvement.

Joined: 08/08/2012

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bo_lives

November 21st, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^

except for Hill, recently, and we all know how that turned out in the second half against Wisconsin. The defense has showed signs of weakness. The Big Ten passing attacks they have faced are mostly garbage. I'm just predicting the loss of Hurst is going to sting more than anyone around here thinks and an injury to a guy like Gary or pretty much anyone in the secondary will hit them hard.

Joined: 04/10/2011

MGoPoints: 7867

ArmenHammer

November 21st, 2017 at 4:45 PM ^

Well, there's really more reason for our defense to be as good next year as it was in 2016 than it had in 2017, yet they debatably are. If anything, this year was the step back in having to replace 10 starters, but next year we're only replacing 2. Ntm, it's another year of developing depth, so that helps w replacing guys w injuries. I don't see a reason to expect a step back in defense.

Joined: 12/07/2016

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SunDiegoBlue

November 21st, 2017 at 4:55 PM ^

I think thats what has people worried next year. It was struggle bus against average to bad teams this year, so to be good against the top teams next year seems like such a big leap. Another 3 loss season next year should be expected. 2019 ? 2020? All assuming coach doesn’t leave.

Joined: 01/13/2017

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