Michigan's record as an underdog

Submitted by BannerToucher85 on

The diary on coins landing tails got me wondering where is our Iowa vs. OSU type moment since upsets seem like fairly random events. I don't follow odds, so I settled on this site for some historical information, and ran the following query for several Big Ten teams:

"You selected XXXXX against anyone during the regular or post season at any location over 30 games as an underdog of 1 to 60 points"

Unfortunately the results were about what I expected

Team      Record as underdog since start of 2012 season
Michigan            1-18   (Harbaugh is 0-5)
Iowa                7-19
Penn State          9-16
MSU                 11-9
Northwestern        13-17   since 10/5/13
Rutgers             5-25    since 10/25/14
Wisconsin           5-9
Ohio State          6-0

Michigan is clearly an outlier here and it suggests that this program simply doesn't win as an underdog. Is this a culutral thing? Luck thing? OP bad at statistics thing?

Edit: added OSU at 6-0 since I was counting from the start of the 2012 regular season. I had excluded the 2011 postseason.

Edit: Michigan's one win was against Northwestern in Nov 2013.

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Michrider41

November 20th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^

You run it on first down. If you get less than 5 yards you throw on second down. If you get more than 5 yards on first down you run it again. The closest thing to a trick play is play action on first down. That is Michigan’s offense. No reverses, no flea flickers, even the jet sweep is rarely used anymore, boring by the numbers football.

Joined: 07/26/2016

MGoPoints: 2980

Northville

November 21st, 2017 at 3:16 AM ^

When was the last time UM had a reliable, healthy, experienced, well-rounded stud at QB? That position goes a hell of a long way to winning the big games, and all those underdog games were likely big games, including THE big game. Somebody mentioned Troy Smith, right? Stud. Barrett. Pretty studly. It's been an inconceivably long time since there was a full-level of confidence and consistency at the position. The same could be said for RB (and OL) but it begins and ends at QB. One thing or the other has been amiss at QB since way, way back. When was Harbaugh at his best? When he had a QB kicking ass. Start there, move forward.

Joined: 11/24/2013

MGoPoints: 574

FlexUM

November 21st, 2017 at 8:31 AM ^

THIS X 10,000. A lockdown, out of this world defense, and a stud qb are two ways you win as an underdog. A freakish qb in college can play you into a game damn near like LBJ can in a basketball game. It's a position that just impacts so much of the team overall when it plays "above itself". 

It's why we often had a lot of luck when Denard was around. Those teams had major freaking issues including coaching but he was a freakish athlete. 

Joined: 11/05/2011

MGoPoints: 13573

Jimmyisgod

November 21st, 2017 at 9:33 AM ^

The game we kicked a FG to won with time expiring and our O linemen moving.  Call was missed by the refs thank god.

And don't give me the we played top teams bs, since 2012 MSU has played and beated several top 5 teams they were underdogs to, they have 8 top 10 wins in the last several years.

Joined: 01/24/2012

MGoPoints: 10342

Don

November 21st, 2017 at 10:10 AM ^

This is how we've done against ranked teams when we've been lower ranked (or unranked)

2012: 

Alabama #2; M #8  Road Loss

ND #11; M #18    Road loss

OSU #4; M #20  Road loss

South Carolina: #11; M #19   Road loss

 

2013:

ND #14; M #17   Home win

MSU #23; M #24  Road loss

OSU #3; M unranked   Home loss

 

2014:

ND #16; M unranked   Road loss

MSU #8; M unranked   Road loss

OSU #7; M unranked   Road loss

 

2015:

BYU #22; M unranked   Home win

NW #13; M #18   Home win

MSU #7; M #12  Home loss

OSU #8; M #12   Home loss

 

2016:

OSU #2; M #3   Road loss

FSU #6; M #10   Road loss

 

2017:

PSU #2; M #19  Road loss

WIS #5; M #25   Road loss

 

Overall record in the above games: 3-15

Home record: 3-3

Road record: 0-12

As many others have pointed out, a big part of our struggles against good teams over the last several years are directly related to our complete inability to win on the road.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148379

Scarletandgray

November 21st, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^

So sad that you guys are discussing be an underdog. You can't even rememberer when you were favored last. The cooper years?

Joined: 11/21/2017

MGoPoints: 5

umfan83

November 21st, 2017 at 12:20 PM ^

This explains some of the frustration of this season.  Was Michigan really young? Yes.  Is a 3-4 loss season understandable given the circumstances? Yes.  

But I'm just sick of year in and year out losing to our rivals and never really surprising anyone by winning games as an underdog.  Yes you are expected to lose when you are an underdog, but 1-18 is terrible. 

Joined: 03/10/2012

MGoPoints: 8466