The value of returning receivers

Submitted by Gulogulo37 on

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/how-valuable-are-returning-starters-and-what…

I may have missed it, but I haven't seen this diary mentioned specifically in any main blog or board post this year. I remember it well because it was surprising to me as well. All I can recall is Brian saying WRs usually don't put up big stats in their first year.

People seem to assume WR is like RB in that speed, size, and athleticism trump experience, but the Mathlete found in 2010 that returning WR experience is one of the biggest factors when predicting an offense's production. He doesn't mention TEs in his post, but obviously that's a big element in Harbaugh's offense as well. We went from having 2 senior WRs and a senior TE to NO seniors, 1 junior slot who missed a bunch of time,1 junior WR who has barely seen the field his entire career, and 1 junior TE who has strangely disappeared despite looking like the heir apparent. Sure, Speight isn't playing well, but we probably should have expected such an underwhelming passing game based on the losses of our receiving threats alone, at least at this point in the season anyway.

 

Here's what the Mathlete wrote:

Wide Receiver 

This was the position that shocked me.  I always considered the wide receiver position to be largely talent driven with little thought given to the value of experience for receivers.  

In one of the strongest correlations I found, each decile of returning wide receiver experience was worth a half a point per game improvement.  Even more surprising, the improvement wasn't restricted to the passing game.  Of the half point improvement, only .3 ppg could be attributed to the passing game.  Veteran wide receivers play a huge role in a team's progress.  This may have been a fluky correlation for 2008-2009 but within the data set, it had one of the highest R squared values I found at 0.72.

MGoBoard

MGoStrength

September 19th, 2017 at 7:17 AM ^

I'm guessing the offensive system you run has something to do with this.  Our system seems to be somewhat complicated and not akin to freshman recievers (and QBs).  I'd bet other simplier systems with less reads and less decision making are easier, such as the one OSU runs.

Joined: 07/29/2010

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Red is Blue

September 19th, 2017 at 9:11 AM ^

Seems like you missed the point of this thread.  Yes, Speight has, at times, looked bad.  But he is part of a larger system and things like wide receiver experience have been found to have an impact on offsensive efficiency.  

Rudock looked bad at the start of the '15 season.  When the offense setttled down and he got familiar with, and began trusting, the folks around him, he looked a lot better. 

Joined: 05/13/2010

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Maize and Blue…

September 19th, 2017 at 10:13 AM ^

Speight had all spring, summer and fall to work with his WRs and TEs minus the suspended Perry. Baker Mayfield and OU don't seem to have a problem with new WRs. Neither does Sam Darnold and USC. It may not be fair comparing Speight to good QBs so lets look at Lewerke from State who only started 2 games last year and we will throw out the Florida game from Wilton's stats. Lewerke 64.8% 205.5 ypg with 4 TDS and 1 pick rating of 149.5. Speight 59.6% 195 ypg with 2 TDS and no picks rating of 135.3. You know what they say- excuses are like...

Joined: 03/15/2009

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BananaRepublic

September 19th, 2017 at 11:00 AM ^

How do some people fail to understand that things aren't as simple as comparing stat lines over two games. Line play is key; having chemistry with receivers who know the play book and run crisp routes that you trust is key. Speight hasn't taken a step back this year. His pre snap responsibilities are hugely increased this year. He almost never gets a clean pocket to operate in. His receivers don't always cut when they're supposed to and they aren't very good at the scramble drill yet.

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mGrowOld

September 19th, 2017 at 9:14 AM ^

This makes me chuckle.  There was a thread shortly before the season starts where our Freshman WRs were discussed and the board was about 95% "it just wont matter that they're Freshman - our's are SO awesome their youth wont even be noticed."

I, being the curmudgeon who remembers what Freshman WRs play like having witnessed them for oh....I dunno....50 years or so said "wont' matter how touted they are.  They are Freshman and Freshman WRs struggle.  It'll matter because it always matters and will always matter."

It never ceases to amaze me how we talk ourselves into and out of things that objectively we KNOW are going to happen simply because A: We are MICHIGAN dammit and B: We want them to be true.  

So at the risk of pissing off people yet again let me remind everyone of the following truths:

1. Freshman WRs seldom, if ever, play like anything but Freshman.  They will struggle but will get better with time.

2. MSU will play us tougher than their record or talent level would objectively indicate.  They would rather go 1-10 with the one win over Michigan than 10-1 with the one loss being to Michigan.

3. Night games at Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin are tough to win.  We historically dont play well on the road, at night, in these venues and I dont care what their record is going in - the game will be difficult and we'll prolly lose (cause more times than we do lose night games there unfortunately)

FYI - those who forget the past are doomed to be surprised when it inevitably repeats itlself.

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