Were NOT going 8-4. (Counter expectation thread)
Watch how this 8-4, pump the brakes, wait until next year crowd jumps on the bandwagon when this team starts winning.
If we do, that's fucking awesome! Do you think I'm going to enjoy it less than you if Michigan wins more than I'm expecting?
Expecting to go undefeated every year is like having the anti-opinion. You didn't take anything into account. You didn't form an opinion at all. I don't praise others for carrying uninformed or deliberately biased opinions in other aspects of life, and I don't in sports either.
I'm not expecting an undefeated year. I'm predicting 10-2. I don't think they will go 0-4 or 1-3 against the big four on their schedule. Outside of OSU, I don't consider any of those teams powerhouses. Losing to "ok" teams is not what Harbaugh was brought here for and is something the fan base should not be comfortable with.
It's year three of Harbaugh, there is literally no one better UM could have hired. I think elite coaches find a way. There is more than enough talent on the team to win 10 games.
I know the roster is young, but outside of WR I'm not sure there will be any true freshman starting. They will have to rely on a lot of 2nd and 3rd year guys. That's not ideal but other teams have done well in similar situations.
After back to back 10 win seasons and recruiting starting to ramp up, UM is trendy and with another double digit win season the program would explode.
Zaire probably gives the Gators its best chance at winning
Seeing as how he will almost certainly predict 2-4 losses.
worst case
I don't get the Florida love - they lost early round talent and got handled by FSU and their offensee sucks
road games at Wisky, PSU and "The Game" are the only 3 I am worrying about
by the Wisky and OSU game this team will be experiencedt
he PSU game is the toughest
I like it!
In terms of what would make a successful season, in my opinion:
Anything 8-4 or worse would be a failure.
- We have too elite a coaching staff/talent base to drop a game to one of the 8 teams significantly worse than us, especially considering none of those 8 games will be played in hostile environments (Bloomington, West Lafayette and College Park, MD are the only road games).
- Additionally, we have 4 "tough" games. Going 0-4 in this stretch would be a failure. We need to win at least 1 or 2 of the tough games to keep moving forward.
Any combination of ways we can get to 9-3, or getting to 10-2 with a loss to Ohio State, would be satisfactory.
- Given the youth of the team, I would be satisfied with a 9-3 record, which I imagine would happen either by holding serve in our 8 games as the significant favorite plus capturing 1 of the tough ones, or by going 2-2 in the tough stretch but dropping a significant upset.
- The reason I can't consitute 10-2 as a success with a loss to OSU, besides them being the most important game on the schedule, would mean that (unless PSU defeated OSU in Columbus and ran the table otherwise) we choked away a chance to get to Indy on our home field in the last game of the year. That would be pretty debilitating.
10-2 with a win over Ohio State, plus 11-1 or 12-0, would constitute a successful season.
- We're young enough where we don't necessarily have to win the Big Ten for the season to be a success; what we do need though is a victory over our rival on our home field.
- Although, I will say entering The Game 11-0 and losing to get to 11-1 would be the worst thing on earth.....
We lose to Florida, we lose to PSU and Wisconsin away and to OSU. *OR* we win one of those and drop some random road game, like we did with Iowa last year and did almost every year under Carr.
I don't think these are the likeliest scenarios, but each is quite plausible given what we know now.
It would look something like this:
12-0: 1%. Theoretically possible but implausible. Very few teams ever go undefeated, let alone one as young as ours.
11-1: 9%. Pretty much everything has to go right for this to happen, e.g. lots of freshmen developing quicky, no major injuries on the OL or DL, and the kind of good fortune that does happen but not very often, like our 2011 turnover ratio or PSU's jump-ball success rate last year. The likeliest scenario here is dropping the first one to Florida, then going on a tear (a la OSU in 2014) or winning out until OSU.
10-2: 25%. Now we're talking plausible. We take 2/4 against (N)Florida, @PSU, @Wisconsin and OSU.
9-3: 35%. We are a good young team, but struggle on the road. Sets up 2018 but isn't quite there yet. Basically 2015 again.
8-4: 20%. I'd say it's less likely than 10-2, but sitll in the realm of plausibility. Probably means someone crucial got injured and the backups were not ready for primetime.
7-5: 9%. This would be the major injuries on the OL and DL scenario.
6-6/below: 1%. Highly unlikely, even in the event of major injuries.
OP is definitely right. Harbaugh is creating a Big Baller Brand at Michigan!
We went 10-2 because our offense sucked last year.
This year is a different story. The defense will still be great and the offense gets upgrades across the board except at QB. Hopefully that changes the narrative on the year.
I like your attitude and agree with your reasoning.
Go Blue!
It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future. (Yogi Berra)
I like your way of thinking, which in my view is clearly correct here.
Am also predicting 11-1, with the loss coming away at one of WI or PSU.
January 11th, 2018 at 7:24 PM ^
But we ARE going 8-5!
April 28th, 2018 at 10:25 PM ^
you really have to hate the internet.