Wilson and Wagner projected late first round in several mocks.

Submitted by MichiganMan14 on
There has been some movement in the stock of DJ and Moritz lately. I believe there is a few weeks left in the decision-making process but multiple mocks have DJ going to San Antonio with the 29th pick. Moritz has been seen as high as 25. This has obvious implications on next season. Losing both would simply be crippling without the addition of Bamba. I would think that both have lottery potential with a strong campaign next year so it will be interesting to see how this decision plays out. It's been eerily quiet on this front for a few weeks now. We should have answers in a few weeks.

AA Forever

April 5th, 2017 at 3:20 PM ^

So in ADDITION to the big men better than Wilson and Wagner, there should also be guards, wings and small forwards ahead of them. Which just reinforces my point that it is not very credible that either is a first round pick.

a2JD

April 5th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^

I've only seen the one that has Wilson at 29th.  Draft Express seems to me to be the most reliable one over the last few years and neither player is listed as going in either round in their latest version

 

taistreetsmyhero

April 5th, 2017 at 2:34 PM ^

Everyone is saying. Wilson isn't going to necessarily improve his draft stock with a stronger season next year because college production doesn't really translate to NBA draft value. Teams look at him now and either see someone they can mold to fit into the NBA game or see someone who is too small to play the 4 and not skilled enough with the ball to play the 3.

alum96

April 5th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^

These same arguments about what is better or not come up every yr. People were arguing Nik and Burke should come back when those were limited athletes who had zero upside in coming back. As for 2nd rounders Deyonta Davis got guaranteed money so it's no sure thing even a 2nd rounder won't get guaranteed money. As for what is best no one here knows and neither do the players... Too many variables. Someone cited Mitch above as if it was a guarantee if he came back his nba trajectory would be completely different. No one knows that. Just like we dont know if xyz player drafted 21st overall becomes a superstar. So huffing and puffing over the same subject every yr is just chasing our tails. Let's see what they do.

freejs

April 6th, 2017 at 3:49 AM ^

they were never going to get drafted that high again - they both got into the damn lottery - no one can argue with that call. 

Once you're a lottery pick, life can't turn out that bad unless you really are bad or you're a complete fuck up. 

I don't know who was arguing they should return. Most people I knew were on board with that being the time to jump. 

 

Leonhall

April 5th, 2017 at 2:49 PM ^

I just don't see it. I'm no scout but don't see either being ready; if they leave, I think they are bound for D League. Come back, you need the work!

freejs

April 6th, 2017 at 9:39 AM ^

I called DJ as a potential NBA player as early as the Barclays game against Villanova. And Beilein spotted his ability and recruited him while tons of M fans were like "why this guy with the funny hair." 

And then you want to deny JB and staff a role in his skills development, etc. 

I can't even with this bullshit. 

 

vanbluegens

April 5th, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^

My son is a senior at UM and was in line at a local bar, as was Mr. Wilson. For 20 minutes DJ was talking about how he needed to go now because he needed/wanted the $$. The other kids were of course trying to talk him out of this. I posted on this site a few years back that Mitch McGary was going to leave the night before he declared because he announced such at my son's SAE party on Saturday night, so the info seems somewhat reliable, Sorry for the potentially bad news.

Don

April 5th, 2017 at 7:22 PM ^

doesn't do a damn thing to improve your game, why not just go all the way and say that playing college ball to begin with is useless? If you can't improve from junior to senior, and from sophomore to junior, why do we accept the notion that freshmen improve going to sophomores?

In other words, it's high time we dispense with the ridiculous notion that there is such a thing as developed skill. All of us are born with everything we're ever going to have, and the idea of "training" and "developing" our talents in "school" is just an elite term for repressing our natural abilities. In particular, the idea that John Beilein or Jim Harbaugh or any of their coaches have anything of value to impart to 20-year olds is fanciful nonsense.

bronxblue

April 5th, 2017 at 11:25 PM ^

Maybe I'm just looking at the wrong mock drafts, but I've not seen either Wilson of Wagner listed as 1st-rounders save Chad Ford with Moe at 25, which seems in line with Ford's love of foreign-born players.  I think both these guys have the talent to be 1st-rounders, but neither looked like consistent stars this year, and the lottery is absolutely in reach with solid junior years.

freejs

April 6th, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^

draft position. 

All this stuff about "unlimited practice time" is horseshit. You know who else has unlimited practice time? The guy trying to eat your lunch. 

Either get a first round contract where the team has made an investment in you and you have 3 years to get it right or come into the league ready to contribute to a team. This whole "it's all about potential" stuff is dated, y'all are running at least a few years behind. Teams want productive players or ceiling is the roof type talents. 

Falling into the second round as an underclassman, particularly one not carrying residual hype from a top ranking entering college is risky. 

And the goal is the second, third, and fourth contract. That's achieved by either being a sunk investment for a team so you can develop toward those latter contracts or being a guy who is useful in year one, so that you prove yourself as enough of a contributor that teams keep signing you. 

It's all in the study: 

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/first-round-why-it-matters

excerpt:

"The facts very clearly display that it is far, far better to land in the first round of the NBA Draft - both for the guaranteed contract and the higher likelihood of establishing yourself in a league where it pays to play many years rather than a few - they print funny money for just about everyone besides first, second, and third year players in the NBA, stars or not. Willie Green, who in a 12 year career has averaged 10 points per game twice, had banked more than $22 million at the end of 2014. I studied draft years 2003-2013, and as the tables and charts show, there is a distinct difference between length of the careers that start in the first round and those that start in the 2nd..."

 

(and yes, I performed the whole experiment of comparing last 5 in the first round to first five in the second round - results were still dramatic - a core of my study was comparing the non-lottery first round to the second round - the results were not only still dramatic, but remarkably similar to/consistent with the overall discrepancy between outcomes for first rounders vs. second rounders. I think the link is really worth clicking on - I think it makes a strong case that the people saying second round is just fine frankly don't know what they're talking about. The math says you're wrong.)