The CFP Selection Committee

Submitted by The Mad Hatter on

Have we talked about the CFP Selection Committee members?  I've been rather "not sober" for most of the last month, so I might have missed it if there was a thread.

There are currently 12 Committee members.  Of the 12 members, 2 have direct ties to Michigan (Jeff Long, Herb Deromedi), one has ties to MSU (Ty Willingham), and of course there's Uncle Barry from Wisconsin.

Does the composition of the Committee help or hurt our chances to get in?  They did keep us at 3 even after losing to Iowa.

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee

 

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vablue

November 28th, 2016 at 12:00 PM ^

I am sorry to say, but I think we have zero chance of making the playoffs. Furthermore, if we were to make the playoffs it would set a dangerous precedent that we would not want. They would have to either completely disregard the conference champion or put two Big Ten teams in and disregard the outcome of the game. While there are good reasons to set aside the outcome, referees and a close game on the road, nobody should want the committee deciding who they like better when there is an on field result. This becomes even more important when they expand to eight teams.

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vablue

November 28th, 2016 at 3:10 PM ^

I agree, but for that to matter in this case they would then have to put in two Big Ten teams and not the conference champion. While Michigan and OSU are clearly the top two teams, there is no way the committee can do this. It would be a terrible precedent. They will have no problem having Wisconsin or PSU jump us because they have won the conference. They may even do it because they won their division. They feel this is the only way to keep the regular season relevant.

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J.

November 28th, 2016 at 3:31 PM ^

If the mandate is to select the four best teams, select the four best teams.  If it's to select the four best conference champions, do that.

The thing that drives me nuts about college football is that the goal lines move.  In 2006, it was vitally important to win your conference.  In 2011 (Alabama vs. LSU), it was not.  This year, who knows?  Committees are rarely the best way to decide anything; in fact, their most effective quailty is that they allow people to defect blame.

If I were commissioner of college football, the first thing I would do is implement schedule reform, so that Alabama would never play Chattanooga again, nor would Washington play Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State.  In one year.  As their entire out-of-conference schedule.  (To be fair, Michigan wouldn't be able to schedule 8 home games, either).  The second thing I would do is implement an objective qualification metric for the playoff.  The only controversy that ever comes up when selecting the NFL playoff participants is seeding -- e.g., when the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks got a home game.  The reason is simple: in the NFL, everybody knows how you qualify for the playoffs.  There's nothing to argue about.

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Farmhouse Funk

November 28th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^

I really think we have a slim chance at getting into the playoff. I figure if Clemson and Washington both win they will be in with Alabama, then it comes down to winner of Big Ten championship game and osu, if it is Penn State would be very interesting to see how they could put osu in over psu since psu would have 2 check boxes for what the committee seems to value, in head to head and conference championship.

I do think we are 1 of the best 4 teams in the nation but that probably won't matter unless someone on the committee really pushes for us by fighting for the 4 best teams overall durring the season.

We do need either Clemson or Washington to lose best case would be for Clemson to be upset since that would remove ACC champ from playoff consederation. Then would need psu to win and hope the committee would put us and osu in over psu.

What happens if both Clemson and Washington lose? Could the Big Ten get 3 teams into the playoff? Or would they put Colorado/Oklahoma in to keep 3 teams from 1 conference getting in? I could see Oklahoma get in, in that case since the love affair with Oklahoma via espn already started last week.

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TheRonimal

November 28th, 2016 at 12:11 PM ^

No way in hell 3 teams from a conference get in. That'd cause such an outrage from everybody. I think it'd be awesome if osu and Michigan made it, but that also would piss the conferences that didn't make it off. I really want Michigan to make it but I can't blame people for feeling that only one team should be allowed per conference. It all comes down to the philosophy of the committee. If they want the 4 best teams I think Alabama, M, Osu, and either Clemson or Washington should go. If they want to value conference championships, then Michigan is out.



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MikeInA2

November 28th, 2016 at 12:12 PM ^

If so, we have a shot.  Michigan proved throughout the year, they can beat anyone in college football.  If "the game" would have been in Ann Arbor, I'd bet the outcome is a solid Michigan victory.  At the Shoe, "EVERYTHING" has to go in your favor.

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Tuebor

November 28th, 2016 at 12:12 PM ^

Worst case scenario for Michigan is Wisconsin winning the big ten becase Uncle Barry might push hard for them to get in.

 

I feel pretty good that if Colorado and Penn State win that Michigan will be at number 4 playing against 'Bama on NYE.

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Ghost of Fritz…

November 28th, 2016 at 12:26 PM ^

...of the 'best 4' and against the 'deserving becasue conference champs' theory. 

MSU got in last year as the Big Ten Conference champ.

But most reasonable observers knew that they were not really among the 4 best teams in the nation. 

Shoulda been a 3 or 4 loss team, but the stars (and muffed punts) aligned for them.  Yes, they beat OSU, but as we saw on Saturday, sometimes the slightly better team ends up losing. 

And the round 1 game was terrible.  Alabama dominated completely and MSU looked like what they really were--just a good but not at all a great team.  Much as I hate to say it, 2015 OSU would have given Alabama a real first round game.  

Wonder if that sort of argument will get tossed around the room when the committee meets.

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Coach Nero

November 28th, 2016 at 12:30 PM ^

How about Oklahoma State.  They could be a one loss team right now if not for a completely botched call vs CMU.  And that was in Stillwater.

I don't think they are one of the best 4 teams in the country, but if they beat Oklahoma this week they could have been 11-1 but no one talks about that game that they lost to CMU.

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ckersh74

November 28th, 2016 at 12:54 PM ^

I actually think this is going to be quite simple. Sadly, I think Alabama and OSU are both in. Wins by both Washington and Clemson effectively lock out the rest of the field. Now, we'll know where we stand on Tuesday night. If we're any lower than 5th, we're probably cooked in any case. If this comes to pass, and we're on the outside looking in, it's because we went 0-2 in our two biggest road games of the year. Close losses? Yup. Controversial? Absolutely. Nevertheless, 0-2 is still 0-2. And that could very well prove to be fatal.

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uofmchris

November 28th, 2016 at 1:49 PM ^

My opinion for tomorrows rankings:

 

#1Alabama

#2 OSU

#3 Clemson

#4 Washington

#5 Michigan

 

The ONLY way Michigan has any shot of even thinking about making it to the dance would be if BOTH Clemson and Washington lose. 

Even with one of those teams losing, there is no way the committe will favor a non conference champion over a conference champion - especially if that conference champion is from the B1G.  

Can you imagine the outrage if the winner of the B1G Championship was leap frogged.....wait for it .... by SOMEONE FROM THE B1G???  

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azian6er

November 28th, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^

actually, I don't think there will be much outcry at all if the CFP poses it correctly, i.e. wins vs the top 25.

If they lean on this metric the most, which, honestly, is way more important than a Conference Trophy (see MSU last year), then I don't see how people can legitimately be upset. W-L record among the top 25 is a fact and there is nothing subjective about it.

I think the shift to the CFP was an effort to dissuade people from relying on oldschool metrics (win your conference!) and instead is an impetus for schools to schedule tough OOC games and win the games which carry extreme weight.

What pray tell has UDub done to put them into the top 4? Only lose 1 game and get smoked by USC when everything on the line? That is not good enough - and I am almost certain the CFP will see it this way as well.  If they beat Colorado, then maybe they squeak in. Maybe.

1. bama

2. osu

3. Clemson (could be UM)

4. UM (Could be Clemson)

5. Wash

6. Wisky

 

 

 

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uofmchris

November 28th, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^

But Conference Champion does carry weight with the committee. In fact, I think it might be higher? Not sure. Are these your rankings for tomorrow? If so, Washington will, and should be at least #4. They whipped a #23 ranked team, on the road. Yeah yeah yeah, WSU couldnt hold a flame to the quality of opponents Michigan has beat, but....a solid win on the roroad vs. a ranked team does carry weight. Washington will be #4 tomorrow.

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azian6er

November 28th, 2016 at 2:52 PM ^

yes rankings for tomorrow.

My logic comes from what the committee has already done. Why was UM #3 and Clemson #4 in the previous rankings? And why has UW been held out of the top 4 since week 11?

UM wins vs #7,6,9

Clemson wins vs #13, 11, 14

UDub wins vs #22,23,24 - got smoked by # 12

The Committee highly values quality wins. Thus the reasoning for much of their rankings thus far.

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uofmchris

November 28th, 2016 at 2:54 PM ^

For shits and giggles this is honestly the best case scenerio... Both Alabama and Washinton lose. OSU takes over #1, and the committee is left to decide who plays OSU as the #4 seed. They can pick between B1G winner, Colorado or Michigan. Ratings for a rematch in Atlanta would be UGE.

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AmayzNblue

November 28th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^

That would be such a joke if Wisconsin or PSU made it over us, because of a fluky weird division rule that allowed PSU to go to the CCG. No one can say with any integrity that any teams in the big ten are better Thant UM-OSU. Those are hands down the best teams from that conference and I would propose that UM is the best overall.



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RadioSimon1983

November 28th, 2016 at 2:47 PM ^

I guess it depends on what the committee values the most after the season ends.  Do they value quality wins (UM of has beaten 3 top 10 teams) or do they value conference championships.  If they value wins, there's no way you can put Michigan behind Wisconsin or Penn State, regardless of which team wins the big ten championship.  To me, the only way Michigan gets in is if Penn State wins the Big Ten, and Washington loses the Pac 12.

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