Can a one-loss, non-Big Ten champion Michigan make the CFP?

Win the games!

Very easily, and in fact I think it's likely if Wisconsin, Penn State and Colorado all win out. Under that scenario, if Michigan beats OSU but loses in the Big 10 championship game to Wisconsin, there would be only 2 undefeated conference champs--Clemson and Alabama.  The other 3 champs would have at least 2 losses (Wisconsin, Colorado, and whoever from the Big12).  In this scenario, Michigan would have 4 wins over teams in or close to the Top 10 in the CFP rankings, including head-to-heads over 2 conference champs.  They're in under that scenario, ahead of any other teams except Clemson and Alabama.

Just win.

Good discussion comrades. Question: Let's say we beat OSU and get Wisconsin in a rematch. Any reason to believe a rematch would be tougher than the first go-round? How are they doing re injuries, organic improvement, adjustment to our schemes?

is realistically down to 8 teams with a chance, unless there is some complete mayhem.  

SEC - Bama and Auburn...I think if Auburn wins out, the committee would put them and Bama in the playoff.  Auburn lost by 6 to Clemson and to Texas AM.  As much as the committee loves Bama, I don't think they miss the  playoff unless they lose 2 games.  

ACC - Clemson and Louisville...it looks like Clemson will play an at least 2 loss North Carolina or V Tech in the title game.  If Clemson were to slip up in that game, given how sloppy they looked at times, Louisville could slide up.  

BIG...Michigan and Ohio State...I guess I don't see Wisconsin making it if they pull an upset in the title game.  They beat LSU who seems like a 4 or 5 loss team, the Michigan State win means nothing, played M and OSU tough, and squeaked by a Nebraska team that just lost by 59.  

PAC...Washington...and they have to go undefeated to make it

BIG 12...Oklahoma...and this is a big stretch

I don't agree with your 1). Michigan should get in with one loss over a one loss Washington or West Virginia conference champ, especially if it beats Ohio (and then loses the CCG). Michigan would've had the better season than either by far. If that's not rewarded then i say the committee has created a situation where half the season means nothing - only division games and CCG matter. Especially if Bama loses to Auburn and doesn't get in, that will really confirm that theory. That would be catastrophic to college football, and people will not forget it until the playoff is expanded again A one loss Clemson or Louisville, whether they win their conference or not, would be valid competition. Yeah, Clemson got damn lucky against NC St. But they also won at Auburn and the ACC is not bad overall I do believe at a minimum we need Washington or Clemson to lose

I think Michigan is a top Four team. Regardless of if they win or lose to OSU .

Unfortunatly what will work against them is the lateness of a loss to OSU .  Most people would move a team like Louisville ahead of Michigan , if both only had one loss. Due to the fact that the loss was so long ago and Louisville has had time to climb back up the polls .

I am sure that people only want one team from a conference in the playoff.

If OSU wins the Big Ten Championship. Few people would want Michigan and OSU to play for the National Championship .

 

If we beat OSU and lose to wisky would they actually get in over us? That seems unlikely

I think we have a pretty good shot at sneaking in at #4 if Washington loses to USC or Washington State and we look good in a loss to Ohio State. The committee has already shown that they're not fond of Washington's schedule, and a loss might push them out of the picture. 

They shouldn't. Winning your conference should be mandatory for making the final four. It make the conference championship games an extension of the playoff and means that every game counts.

all you people saying 'doesnt matter just win out' need to shut up. that is obviously the goal. this is a thought experiment to explore the possibilty of still getting into the cfp with a loss. not trying to get political, but the inability to make a plan B because you are just oh so confident in plan A is not a postive trait

 

this beef behind me, in this scenario i am assuming our one loss is to osu, not wisc in the b1g championship. if we lose to wisc i dont know what the committee would do. they may just punt on both b1g teams. 

i'm unsure we get in ahead of a 1-loss clemson (even though i think we should). i would count them and alabama in, even with a loss. It's no point rooting for either of them to lose because it just opens the door for another team to steal a spot. That (along with osu) leaves one spot up for grabs.

i would say our major obstacles are washington and louisville. if washington loses, i think we get in ahead of them. if their loss comes before their conf championship game it's close, and even better if their loss comes in the conf championship (to colorado!). we may be in ahead of louisville already, but it's so close it's really hard to say. another loss for them would be nice in order to seal it.

 

A team that can't even win their division, let alone their conference, isn't going to make the playoff.  Maybe if OSU was undefeated and ranked #1, and our one loss was to them on the road by one point, and if they crushed the West Division champ in the BT championship, we might have a prayer, but that's not going to be the scenario.

Beat OSU, or nothing else matters.

I think USC will beat Washington next week. I worry that the media hype over Louisville would place them in the final spot.  May be Clemson will lose?  A lot would have to have to happen. The most sure way to get in to the payoffs is go down to Columbus and beat the shit out of OSU!  If Michigan can't then Harbaugh and team have only themselves to blame but I would say it would still be a successful 2nd year for Harbaugh and by his 4th season he will win a national championship!

In other words, no.

A lot has to fall in Michigan's way in order for it to happen and they must root for OSU to win B1G. If Michigan gets blown out by OSU, kiss the CFB good bye