Michigan 20% to win CoFoPo per Fivethirtyeight

for CoFoPo usage.  This is the worst thing anyone has ever done.

No, I agree.

Their scenario calculator that ESPN just posted gives Michigan a different percentage to make the playoff if OSU loses their next game versus Nebraska winning their next game... I no longer trust the source

Cofopo as an anacronym needs to die a horrible death...CFB Playoffs sounds much better

I don't hate "CoFoPo" as much as "win a Natty" (to which the correct response is "light or ice"). But it's close.

I can final say I'm happy with where my beloved Wolverines are at in College Football.... An out right title is all I'm missing to make it complete in my lifetime.

GO BLUE

Minnesota's missing

That looks like a much more reasonable ranking

This is getting real, no?

This "CoFoPo" term needs to be done.

I love the fact that we are talking about our team at 8-0 right now in a CFP discussion. There were many of us that thought we would be 7-1 at best at this point. This is by no means to diminish those that were skeptical because at the beginning of the season I was as well. I love this team! Go Blue!!

Reason I'm not worried. I keep saying we're going undefeated so don't care about the rankings, Vegas odds or 538.

I'm still a bit worried about the team as a whole and Speight. I'm hoping that we can get back to blitzing regularly, but as long as they use trips on one side (Peppers) or move the RB out to a WR on the side of Gedeon we can't blitz. People have figured that out and the last 2/3 games we haven't been able to blitz as much or hardly at all. We need to start airing it out as well.

Also on the wildcat w Peppers he needs to give up the ball to the RB to keep the defense honest. He keeps the ball every time and the last 1/2 games he's been getting stuffed when he tried to fake to the RB! Just saying

Another takeaway from the link is the following: If you click the button for Ohio State to win out and UM to beat Maryland, the odds for Michigan to make the playoff are STILL 25%. 

But, I think something is wrong with the tool because in this scenario it still gives Michigan a 10% chance to win the Big Ten. My understanding is that if OSU wins out, Michigan cannot make the Big Ten title game (PSU could based on the HTH with OSU, but in the event of a 3 way OSU would go in so UM can't get in on 3 way). 

 

 

 

 

That sounds high.  According to the current win %s for the remaining games, we're about 47% to win out.  I don't see how we get to the playoff without beating OSU, but the chances that we lose a game before OSU are so small that it doesn't affect the calculation much.*  In the B1G championship game, I'm guessing we'd be about a 75% favorite.  If you assume we're 50/50 in both games of the playoffs, that takes the overall chance of winning the whole thing to about 9%.

* If you assume another path to the CFP is losing to Iowa but still beating OSU, with everything else being equal, you can add 1% to the 9%.

How accurate has fivethirtyeight been in the past 2 years at projecting the cfp champion?

Please just use CFP as an abbreviation.