OT: Kentucky or the Field?
Saw a poll on ESPN today, and 51% of people have Kentucky winning the National Title. I can't remember a time when there has been such a high consensus on this.
I am on the other side of this argument. I think the odds are significantly lower that Kentucky wins a title this year, even if we give kentucky great odds in each game, they still have a low chance at winning.
Chance of winning:
99% Round of 64
90% Round of 32
85% Sweet 16
75% Elite 8
70% Final 4
65% Championship Game
=25.8 % total odds of winning the title
Combine this, with the fact that Kentucky played relatively weak competition in the SEC, and struggled at times, and I think this team is vastly overhyped. Put another way, if Kentucky were in the ACC would there be any chance they walk out of that unscathed? Thoughts? What do you have?
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/poll/conversation/_/id/4748328
March 17th, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^
that's historical, and historically it's exceedingly rare to have a #1 seed (be perceived) to be so much better than the field. UK is who I'm picking.
OTOH, Buffalo is one of the few teams who actually gave UK a run for their money this year, and in Rupp no less. I have a bracket with Buffalo over Kentucky. Greatest upset ever.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
Does anybody have the password for the bracket on ESPN Tournament Challenge for the MgoBlog group? Sory looked around and cant find it anywhere.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^
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The ! is upper case.
Of course.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
I hear a lot of people talking about how if Kentucky wins you still only have a 15%ish chance to win your pool. I guess it comes down to the question, do I give one of the other contenders (Wisky, Arizona, Duke, etc) a 15% chance of winning the whole thing? If you're buying into the numbers of Kentucky having a 40-50% chance of winning the whole thing, I don't think you can give any other contender a 10% percent chance. So when I look at my bracket, I see picking Kentucky and have a 15% chance to win based on other games or picking another team, who will guarantee me money if they win, but that will only happen 10% of the time. Unless you're filling out multiple brackets, I feel my odds are still better with Kentucky.
March 17th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
Well I remember one year when a bunch of people picked Kansas (including me) and they lost to Northern Iowa. So I think I'll be making two brackets.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^
in KenPom era are the one who are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Kentucky is the only one that has both in the top 10. Pretty easy for me to put Kentucky to win it all since they pass both the eye and computer test.
Michigan is the outliner in terms of being a national championship participant because they have the worst defense of anybody in KenPom era by a wide margin and it's the offense that kept them afloat.
March 17th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
Sweet.
If they shoot 90% from the field again they may do it.
Anyone who wants a leg up in winning their pool should have anyone but Kentucky as their champ. Most everyone will be picking them but there's a good chance they don't win it all.
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Kentucky may have the best odds among teams to win the title but that doesn't mean it has better odds than the field. I know Kentucky is both undefeated and really freaking good but in a binary bet like this it seems crazy not to take the field. Unless, of course, oddsmakers are also giving Kentucky a better than 50% chance to win (which I seriously doubt).
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Pardon my ignorance but what exactly does that mean? I don't gamble or understand lines much beyond over/under spread and total points.
Is that better than the aggregate of the field? Is that even quantified by oddsmakers since they generally assign lines for each individual team?
March 17th, 2015 at 10:42 PM ^
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TeamRankings more or less agrees with ESPN's numbers, though they are varied somewhat. Here's how they broke down their projected odds of progression at each stage:
Make Round of 64: 100%
Make Round of 32: 98.9%
Make Sweet 16: 88.2%
Make Elite 8: 76.3%
Make Final Four: 60.5%
Make Final: 40.0%
Win: 30.2%
For kicks, compare that to markedly cloudier outlook (late on) for Duke:
Make Round of 64: 100%
Make Round of 32: 97.4%
Make Sweet 16: 79.5%
Make Elite 8: 56.6%
Make Final Four: 33.8%
Make Final: 18.3%
Win: 9.2%
I'm taking the field. Kentucky is a damn good team this year, and going undefeated says a lot, no matter how weak your conference is nationally. But Kentucky was not by any means dominant the whole year. There were some close games for Kentucky that had no business being close. I don't watch enough Kentucky basketball to know this for sure, but it makes me wonder if most of the time, they're just on cruise control and skate through the SEC based on talent and extremely weak competition.
I'm betting a Kentucky-Wisconsin rematch in the Final Four, and Wisconsin gets revenge for last year. The pressure of going undefeated will just be too much, and Wisconsin will be out for blood in that game. They're also one of the few teams that can match up with Kentucky, size-wise.
March 17th, 2015 at 10:41 PM ^
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